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EcoScope

Oct-12 inflation dips to 7.5%

15-Nov-2012

Food inflation drops to 6.6%, core to 5.2%; Expect easing from RBI
  • Oct-12 inflation at 7.5% was significantly below expectations. Both, declining food and manufacturing inflation, contributed to the fall.
  • Fall in vegetables prices and decline in fruits inflation overwhelmed moderate uptick in other food items. Also, decline in food inflation overcame the uptick in non-food primary articles and minerals group inflation resulting in a decline in the inflation of overall primary articles group.
  • Fuel group inflation inched lower as inflation in unregulated fuel group including that of petrol, down on high base. 
  • Manufacturing inflation stood below 6% again after a gap of two months. Most significantly, core inflation at 5.2% cooled within striking distance of RBI's comfort level of 5%.
  • Going forward, we expect declining food and core inflation to establish as a trend as government has started releasing excess buffer stock, and international commodity prices are falling, QE3 notwithstanding. 
  • The two latest data releases (viz, IIP and inflation) indicate that RBI's just revised forecast may need to be reviewed again. These point to further shift in growth-inflation balance strengthening the case for a rate cut. We expect RBI to cut rates by 50bp in remaining FY13.
  • If, however, RBI chooses to defer rate cut towards end of FY13 we expect RBI to resume OMO in accordance with its latest policy stance as well as to increase effectiveness of its rate cut cycle as and when it is initiated.

 
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