Expert Speak
BJP on upswing; could garner 200 Lok Sabha seats
The game changers - UP and Bihar
13 December 2013
Sector: Strategy
Results of the recently concluded state assembly elections highlight a strong anti-Congress
wave in the country, believes Mr Varghese K George, Hindustan Times' Political Bureau
Chief. This could benefit either the BJP or other regional/national parties in the upcoming
general elections.
In our Conference Call to get his views on the implications of the assembly election results
on national politics and the general elections, Mr Varghese pointed out that there are two
interesting trends shaping Indian politics: (1) Yearning for a strong leader, both at the
Center and States, and (2) Increasingly, different sections are voting on common grounds,
unlike earlier. Accordingly, though voter turnout is likely to be high in the upcoming general
Mr Varghese K George,
elections (as seen in the assembly elections), people are likely to vote on common grounds
Political Bureau Chief,
Hindustan Times,
rather than on caste or sect-driven issues.
oversees coverage and
The BJP could garner 200 seats in the upcoming general elections. This, Mr Varghese believes,
writes on Politics and
will be on the back of higher seats in Uttar Pradesh (UP) and Bihar, apart from the four states
Policy. Over a 10-year
where the BJP emerged victorious (clear wins in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh;
career, Mr Varghese has
single largest party in Delhi) in the just-concluded assembly elections. UP and Bihar could see
worked with the Indian
the BJP garnering ~70 seats out of a maximum of 120 seats (22% of total Lok Sabha seats) if
Express and Tehelka, and
elections were to happen today. Six months later, there could be changes in the political
has won several
situation, though the direction will still remain in favor of the BJP. In 2009, the BJP had won
prestigious awards. He
was selected Ramnath
a total of just 22 seats in these two states.
The BJP is likely to have pre-poll alliances with Telegu Desam Party (TDP) in Andhra Pradesh,
Goenka Journalist of the
Yeddurappa in Karnataka and Indian National Lok Dal of Haryana. However, regional parties
Year - 2006.
like AIADMK and Biju Janata Dal (BJD) might not be very keen on a pre-poll alliance with the
national parties, especially in states where the bigger parties have no or insignificant presence.
On Delhi, he admitted that most political experts had undermined the AAP wave. If re-elections are held, it is difficult to say
which party would form the government. There are two contrasting views: (1) A section of BJP voters believe that if they
knew AAP was such a force, they would have voted for AAP, and (2) A section of AAP voters believe that despite so much
effort, if AAP has not achieved majority, it is better to vote for BJP.
Strong anti-Congress wave across nation; BJP/regional parties the beneficiaries
The recently concluded five state elections saw the Congress losing the four major states. It emerged victorious
only in Mizoram. The BJP won in all these states, with Delhi being a hung assembly (BJP is the single largest
party in Delhi).
Interestingly, the Congress governments in both Rajasthan and Delhi had performed well and both the Chief
Ministers were well regarded by the public as well as opponents.
However, central issues of inflation, high interest rates and state-level corruption led to the fall of the
Congress in these states.
The national trend may not entirely be in favor of BJP, but it is definitely against the Congress. The Chief
Ministers of Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh may not necessarily have deserved a third term, but the anti-
Congress wave helped them to tide over.
The dominant thought is that the BJP will form the next Central Government but there is a very remote
possibility of smaller parties like the Left, BSP, etc, coming together with support from the Congress to keep
the BJP out of power. A Congress-led government looks very unlikely.
Ashish Gupta
(Ashish.Gupta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5544
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
1

Expert Speak
Please refer our India Politics
report 9th December 2013
Comprehensive win by BJP in four states; Delhi though remains a hung assembly
Party
Chattisgarh
BJP
Congress
Others
Delhi
BJP
Congress
AAP
Others
Madhya Pradesh
BJP
Congress
Others
Rajasthan
BJP
Congress
Others
Seats won
(1998)
NA
Seats won
(2003)
90
50
37
3
70
20
47
0
3
230
173
38
19
200
120
56
24
Seats won
Seats won
Swing (B-A)
(2008) (A)
(2013) (B)
90
90
0
50
49
-1
38
39
1
2
2
0
70
70
0
23
32
9
43
8
-35
0
28
28
4
2
-2
230
230
0
143
165
22
71
58
-13
16
7
-9
200
199
-1
78
162
84
96
21
-75
26
16
-10
Source: Election Commission of India, MOSL
70
15
52
0
3
320
119
172
29
200
33
153
14
BJP likely to get ~60 seats in upcoming general elections in these four states
Parties
Chahattisgarh
BJP
Congress
Others
Delhi
BJP
Congress
AAP
Others
Madhya Pradesh
BJP
Congress
Others
Rajasthan
BJP
Congress
Others
TOTAL SEATS
BJP
CONGRESS
OTHERS
Assembly
(2003)
90
50
37
3
70
20
47
0
3
230
173
38
19
200
120
56
24
590
363
178
49
General
(2004)
11
10
1
0
7
1
6
0
0
29
25
4
0
25
21
4
0
72
57
15
0
Assembly
General
Assembly
(2008)
(2009)
(2013)
90
11
90
50
10
49
38
1
39
2
0
2
70
7
70
23
0
32
43
7
8
0
0
28
4
0
2
230
29
230
143
16
165
71
12
58
16
1
7
200
25
199
78
4
162
96
20
21
26
1
16
590
72
589
294
30
408
248
40
126
48
2
55
Source: Election Commission of India, MOSL
13 December 2013
2

Expert Speak
Dilemma for Congress for general elections - Growth or Inflation?
Chhattisgarh
The biggest dilemma the Congress is facing right now is whether to focus on
controlling inflation and curb the resultant price hikes or to encourage growth by
investing further in the economy.
Many in the Congress believe that inflation is the single largest factor contributing
to the rout in the states. The government faces a tough prospect in trying to ease
inflation while still maintaining and furthering economic growth.
Many, though, believe that it is too late to bring the focus back to economic recovery
at this point.
Mr Rahul Gandhi has propounded that it is time for a new, young leadership at all
levels in the Congress, which is not well taken by all the Congress party members.
However, Mr Rahul Gandhi will now be playing a more active role in the Congress
strategies with an eye on the Parliamentary Elections next year, with Mrs Sonia
Gandhi providing the required support.
With Mr Narendra Modi's popularity increasing by the day, the Congress' focus is
on 'constraining' the NaMo surge rather than 'confronting' it.
New trends among Indian voters
Delhi
There are two interesting trends shaping up amongst the Indian voters:
(1) Yearning for a strong leader, both at the Center and States:
The BJP has a stronger
edge on the leadership front than the Congress. The 'diffused leadership' practice of
the Congress to attract more constituents does not seem to be working in the current
situation.
(2) Divergence in voter preferences decreasing:
Indian politics has been defined by
caste, religious and linguistic identities over the past many years. But the recent
assembly election results have proven that divergences in voter preferences are
decreasing across these identities. Voters are increasingly voting for a common agenda,
unlike earlier.
Madhya Pradesh
Voter turnout astounding and likely to continue
One of the heartening aspects of the state elections has been the overwhelming
voter turnout.
There have been a record number of people voting in all the states and the same
is being expected for the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections as well.
While there has been talk that the higher turnout might benefit the BJP-led NDA
to ride the anti-incumbency wave, Mr Varghese feels that the polling numbers
will not necessarily have a great impact on the outcome since people are voting
for a common ground.
Villages and small towns, which are home to an increasing number of emerging
middle class households, are churning increased number of voters who are
increasingly disenchanted with the government due to the constant price rise
and slowing pace of growth.
Rajasthan
13 December 2013
3

Expert Speak
BJP likely to get 200 seats; UP and Bihar critical - could get 60% of seats
The BJP is likely to do really well and could get ~200 seats, with the Congress
dropping to ~110 seats.
The reason for this high number is the astounding assembly election results and
strong possibility of the BJP getting record seats in UP and Bihar, which account
for 120 seats (22% of Lok Sabha seats).
He projects BJP to win ~50 seats in UP and expects BSP to be the closest competitor,
if elections were to happen today. Six months later, there could be changes in the
political situation, though the direction will still remain in favour of the BJP. The
ruling Samajwadi Party (SP) in UP has a strong anti-incumbency sentiment against
it due to nearly 130 communal riots in the past 18 months. The communal
polarization might just work in the favor of the BJP and the BSP at the expense of
both the SP and the Congress.
Even Bihar, to a lesser extent, is seeing an anti-incumbency wave against the
JD(U) government, led by Mr Nitish Kumar.
The outcome of the Bihar general elections would depend on the alliances that
can be forged between the disparate participants. The Congress has the option of
tying up once again with the RJD, led by Mr Laloo Prasad Yadav or to side with Mr
Nitish Kumar. While a Congress-RJD combine is not expected to be a factor at all,
a Congress-JD(U) alliance might still swing the state in their favor.
Nonetheless, the BJP is likely to win ~20 of the 40 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar, if
elections were to happen today. Six months later, there could be changes in the
political situation, though the direction will still remain in favour of the BJP.
1999
2004
2009
85
80
80
29
10
10
10
9
21
14
19
20
26
35
23
6
7
6
54
40
40
23
5
12
4
3
2
18
6
20
7
22
4
2
4
2
139
120
120
52
15
22
14
12
23
73
93
75
Source: Election Commission of India, MOSL
UP and Bihar Lok Sabha seats: BJP likely to win 70 seats
Political Party
Uttar Pradesh
BJP
Congress
Bahujan Samaj Party
Samajwadi Party
Others
Bihar
BJP
Congress
Janata Dal (United)
Rashtriya Janata Dal
Others
Total seats in UP and Bihar
BJP
Congress
Others
,,
BJP to win 70 seats in UP
and Bihar, if elections
were to happen today.
Six months later, there
could be changes in the
political situation, though
the direction will still
remain in favour of BJP
,,
In both UP and Bihar, caste identities that have traditionally defined election
outcomes, are weakening. From small caste-based sects, the formation of a broad
religious identity is more likely. This might work in favor of the BJP.
The backward caste voters, who have generally stood behind the SP, RJD and
Congress, are now getting split between Yadav and non-Yadav groups. While the
Yadavs might still support these parties, the non-Yadav backward constituents are
more likely to vote for the BJP, given their collective religious identities.
13 December 2013
4

Expert Speak
Even the Muslims, generally staunch supporters of both the Congress and the SP,
are discontent with the way the riots situation has been handled by Mr Akhilesh
Yadav's government.
Alliances will be the key to watch in run-up to general elections
,,
Pre-poll alliance with the
TDP in Andhra Pradesh
and INLD in Haryana looks
like a possibility
,,
Alliances would have a bearing on the formation of the government at the Center.
Regional parties like AIADMK might not be very keen on a pre-poll alliance with
the national parties, especially in states where the bigger parties have no or
insignificant presence.
The same holds true for the Naveen Patnaik-led BJD in Orissa, who while leaning
heavily towards the BJP, might wait for the outcome of the polls before declaring
any formal support.
Pre-poll alliance with the TDP in Andhra Pradesh looks like a possibility for the
BJP and the Om Prakash Chautala-led Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) in Haryana. In
Karnataka, there is a strong feeling that the party might bring back ex-Chief
Minister, Mr BS Yeddurappa, who had fallen foul of the party top brass, to add
muscle to its challenge of wrestling the southern state from the Congress.
Delhi elections and the AAP effect - the way forward
The Delhi election results have thrown up the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) as a more
credible alternative to the "mainstream" political parties, Congress and BJP.
While a section of BJP voters are saying that had they known at the time of polling
that the AAP would be picking up such numbers, they would have voted for AAP,
giving it a clear majority.
However, certain AAP voters feel that the instability brought about by the turn of
events would be better resolved if they sided with the BJP and helped the party
to establish a government.
With these thoughts, there is a growing sentiment in Delhi circles that in the
likely possibility of a re-election, the tide might swing in the favor of the BJP.
An interesting aspect brought forward in Delhi is that a majority of the people
who want Mr Arvind Kejriwal to be the Chief Minister of Delhi also see Mr Narendra
Modi as the next Prime Minister.
This only heightens the sense that the BJP could get a clear mandate in Delhi
when the polls are held again.
Possibility of emergence of AAP as a national party in upcoming general
elections
With AAP's stupendous success in Delhi, people are wondering if the party would
expand its membership and compete on a larger scale in the general elections.
Word from the AAP is that they will continue to focus primarily on Delhi for the
time being. They might also start looking at parts of Punjab, Haryana and areas in
UP close to Delhi.
The party is not very keen to fritter away the goodwill it has earned in the Delhi
elections by spreading itself thin all across the country.
It should be remembered though that AAP is still in its nascent stages and cannot
compete with the national parties in terms of membership or resources.
The party might also prop up candidates in certain symbolically important
constituencies against Mr Rahul Gandhi and Mr Narendra Modi as a token of its
continuing commitment to the cause of the common man.
5
13 December 2013

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