India Politics | 9 November 2015
India Politics
Grand Alliance sweeps Bihar with three-fourth of seats
Please refer to our earlier
series on Bihar Election
Lighter election calendar till Mar-17 brings focus back on reform
The Bihar Assembly election 2015 followed the template of decisive mandate with a
near sweep for Grand Alliance (GA). The GA won 178 seats, i.e., nearly three fourths of
all seats in Bihar. In Contrast, NDA could manage to win only 58 seats.
Lalu Prasad’s RJD emerged as the single largest party with 80 seats. However, all three
parties in GA had a high strike ratio (seats won vs. contested). In contrast BJP
managed to win only 33% of the seats contested with its allies performing poorly.
Opinion polls and exit polls remained inclusive and failed to catch the tide with the
lone exception of Axis APM which was most successful in Delhi Election too.
Post May-14, BJP has won four state elections and lost in two. The upcoming election
calendar till Mar-17 do not have election in any BJP ruled states.
The lighter election schedule should hold the government in good stead to provide a
push to the reform path which may now take a more nuanced course with greater
political consensus. This would only be beneficial in the medium term.
Grand Alliance sweeps Bihar continuing with the trend of decisive mandate
Grand alliance wins 178 seats:
The 2015 Bihar elections witnessed a sweep in
favour of three fourth of the seats (178 out of 243). Correspondingly, NDA’s tally
was much lower at 58. While the third front managed no seats the fourth front
of left parties garnered a measly 3 seats.
Lalu Yadav makes a comeback:
The election also witnessed an emphatic
comeback for Lalu Yadav as a single largest party with 80 seats (vs. its best ever
tally of 124 seats in 2000). BJP’s tally at 53 was near its 2005 tally of 55.
Alliance of ‘Grand Alliance’ worked:
All three partners of Grand Alliance
showed very high strike ratio (no. of seats won vs. contested). For BJP not only
its own strike ratio fell sharply from 89% in 2010 election to just 33%, it allies
performed poorly.
Exhibit 1: Grand Alliance sweeps Bihar elections
Name of Party
Grand Alliance
Janata Dal (United) [JD (U)]
Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)
Indian National Congress (INC)
NDA
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
Lok Janshakti Party (LJP)
Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP)
Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM)
Others
Communist Party of India (ML) (L)
Independent
No of seats
Vote share (%)
Won
Changes
Won
Change
178
37
42
-8
71
-44
17
-6
80
58
18
0
27
23
7
-2
58
-39
34
6
53
-38
24
8
2
-1
5
-2
2
N.A.
3
N.A.
1
N.A.
2
N.A.
7
1
3
3
2
4
-2
9
Source: Election Commission, MOSL
Note:
Changes reflect different political alignment in 2010 election too and is not comparable.
Dipankar Mitra
(Dipankar.Mitra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 39825405
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

India Politics
Exhibit 2: RJD emerges as single largest party; BJP’s tally back to 2005 levels
Party
BJP
JD (U)
JD
RJD
INC
JMM
CPI
CPM
Others
IND
Total
1985
16
1990
39
122
196
9
12
1
61
29
324
71
19
23
6
14
30
324
1995
41
167
29
10
26
6
33
12
324
124
23
12
5
2
50
20
324
54
9
22
4
1
1
80
27
2000
67
21
2005
55
88
2010
91
115
2015
53
71
3
1
23
3
8
10
6
4
243
243
243
Source: Election Commission, MOSL
Exhibit 3: BJP had to contend with rather poor show from its allies
Strike ratio was high for all
three Grand Alliance partners
Strike ratio (seats won as % of contested)
80
71
68
33
Relatively poor strike
ratio by allies of BJP
5
LJP
NDA
9
RLSP
5
HAM
RJD
JD (U)
Grand Alliance
INC
BJP
Source: Election Commission, MOSL
Opinion and Exit polls largely failed:
Not only the average opinion and exit polls
remained inconclusive their were wide variation in them. Almost all, barring the
notable exception of Axis APM that was tantalizingly accurate, failed to capture
the large swing and decisive mandate in favour of Grand alliance. Opinion polls
diverged even widely.
Exhibit 4: Exit polls predicted a rather close fight with only Axis APM being accurate
(ordered as per accuracy) (no. of seats)
Polling organisation/Agency
Axis APM
CNX
News X
ABP News – Nielsen
Times Now – CVoter
India TV-CVoter
News Nation
India Today - Cicero
Aaj Tak - Cicero
NDTV
Dainik Jagran
News 24 - Today's Chanakya
Median
NDA
(BJP + LJP + RLSP + HAM)
58-70
95
90-100
108
111
101-121
115-119
111-127
113-127
120-130
130
155
113
Grand Alliance (GA)
(JD(U) + RJD + INC)
169-183
135
130-140
130
122
112-132
120-124
110-124
111-123
105-115
97
83
122
Others
3-7
13
13-23
5
10
6-14
3-5
4-10
4-8
5-10
16
5
9
Source: Media, MOSL
9 November 2015
2

India Politics
Exhibit 5: Opinion polls too clearly indicated a close finish with none able to predict a landslide for Grand Alliance
When conducted
Apr–May 2015
Jun–Jul 2015
August - September 2015
August - September 2015
3–7 September 2015
12–13 September 2015
23-Sep-15
7-Oct-15
8-Oct-15
7-Oct-15
Oct-15
Oct-15
Oct-15
Oct-15
Polling organization
/ Agency
ABP News [238]
ABP News – Nielsen
India Today - Cicero
India TV-CVoter poll
ABP News – Nielsen
Zee News – Media
Times Now – CVoter
Leadtech - infoelections.com
CNN-IBN- Axis Poll
ABP News
Zee News
India Today- Cicero poll
News Nation
India TV- Cvoter
Sample size (no.
of persons)
NA
NA
5,968
10,638
4,493
31,906
7,786
11,566
27500
NA
NA
NA
7,000
9,916
JD(U) +
RJD + INC
127
128
106
120-128
122
86
112
73
137
112
64
122
115-119
108-124
BJP + LJP +
RLSP + HAM
111
111
125
94-106
118
157
117
168
95
128
147
111
120-124
Other
5
4
12
17-21
3
-
14
2
11
3
32
10
2-4
111-127
4-12
Source: Media, MOSL
Its 4:2 for BJP post May-14; election calendar till Mar-17 is of non-BJP states
State election score since May-14 in favour of BJP:
Since the Mar-14 General
Election and associated state assembly elections, six more states have gone for
election out of which BJP has been able to form government with NDA allies in
the first four states. However, BJP had a fairly poor show in the last two
assembly elections in Delhi and Bihar.
No BJP ruled states going for election till Mar-17:
The election calendar till Mar-
17 are somewhat light for BJP as no BJP ruled states are going for elections.
Moreover, barring the small state of Puducherry, BJP do not have any alliance
with any of the dominant regional parties in these states.
Exhibit 6: NDA won the first four assembly elections since May-14 but lost the last two
Total seats
NDA seats
288
243
186
90
48
87
53
81
48
70
3
58
Source: Media, MOSL
9 November 2015
3

India Politics
Exhibit 7: Till Mar-17 no NDA ruled state are going to poll barring the small state of
Puducherry
States
Tamil Nadu
West Bengal
Kerala
Assam
Puducherry
Goa
Punjab
Uttar Pradesh
Uttarakhand
Total
As % of total seats
Elections due
before
May-16
May-16
May-16
May-16
May-16
Mar-17
Mar-17
May-17
Aug-17
Current ruling party
AIADMK
TMC
UDF (Congress led)
Congress
All India N R Congress
(NDA alliance)
BJP
NDA (SAD + BJP)
SJP
UPA
Lok Sabha
seats
39
42
20
14
1
2
13
80
5
216
Seats won by
NDA in 2014
elections
2
2
0
7
1
2
6
73
5
98
Rajya Sabha
seats
18
16
9
7
1
1
7
31
3
93
39.8
18.0
38.0
Source: Election Commission of India, MOSL
Economic reforms may take a nuanced gradualist course
Formidable reform measures delivered already:
The Government in its 18
months of reign has tried to address comprehensively many critical bottlenecks
of the economy. Notably most of these involved executive action and not
through legislative intervention.
Reforms to follow gradualist course:
While legislative agenda would form an
important part of the reform process going forward, the government still has
the requisite political capital to push through it. The lighter election calendar, as
mentioned above, can only ease this process with government’s ability to
skillfully negotiate the complex reforms with opposition may be tested to the
hilt for the next two years.
Reform
Many measures include: i) restricting MSP hikes to 2-5%; ii) lower state
government's additional MSP; iii) liberal imports and restricting
exports, iv) strict action against hoarders, etc.
Nearly ~50% of total ~92mtpa of capacity successfully auctioned
already
Many measures include: i) on-line environmental clearances; ii)
liberalizing FDI, iii) improving 'doing business' parameters even at state
levels; iv) streamlining bureaucracy; v) export promotion; etc.
Despite staying on course for fiscal correction, government has been
able to reprioritize its expenditure towards a capex boost. Also took
the opportunity of lower oil price to create a fund for roads
construction.
Took the diesel deregulation to its logical conclusion; initiated JAM
trinity to plug leakages from the system
Incentivized states to assume DISCOM debts on balance sheet and to
eliminate losses by FY19. This would also eliminate the logjam of
investment in the power sector
Source: Media, MOSL
Exhibit 8: The government has undertook far reaching reforms in its 18-month tenure
Area
Food inflation
Coal auction and easing
mining
Investment climate
Capex drive and fiscal
correction
Subsidy resolution
DISCOM's health
9 November 2015
4

India Politics
Quote Shoot: Slugfest is finally over!
“Earlier I knew that there are just three parties in the grand alliance:
JD(U), RJD and Congress Party. But I’ve just come to know that a fourth
partner too has joined them – a tantrik (black magician) …. Now Lalu Prasad
Yadav should name his party as Rashtriya Jadu-Tona Dal …”
“When the party tickets were decided from
inside the jail…youth were forced to go out of
Siwan to save their lives…would they give
development to the state?”
– Narendra Modi
– Narendra Modi
“Yesterday, I saw Nitishji doing some
Mushaira.
He felt that he will call some courtiers and journalists,
recite poems and defeat Lalu by starting a new form of
entertainment. I knew there are three partners in the
grand alliance — Congress, RJD and JD(U). But I wonder
why Nitish Babu chose a song from the film
Three Idiots
for his first
Mushaira.
Even if you wanted to parody a
poem why did you think of the
Three Idiots”
"I am a son of Bihar, so my DNA is the DNA
of the people of Bihar. Now I leave it to the
people of Bihar how to reply to someone
who says their DNA is poor"
– Narendra Modi
–
Nitish Kumar
“Bahati Hawa sa tha woh, Gujarat se aaya tha woh,
kaala dhan lane wala thaa wo, kahan gaya use doondho. Humko desh ki fikr sataati
hai, woh bus videsh ke daure lagaate hain, humko badhti mahangai satata, wo bas
mann ki baat sunata. Har waqt apni selfie khinchta tha woh, Dawood ko laane wala
tha woh, kahan gaya use dhoondo”
(He was like the blowing wind, from Gujarat he
came with the promise to bring back black money, where has he gone? Find him.
While we worry about the country, he travels abroad; while price rise bothers us,
he tells us only his
‘mann ki baat’.
Always busy clicking selfies,
he promised to bring back Dawood. Where has he gone? Find him.)
–
Nitish Kumar
"Modi is a brahm pisach and he needs
“If BJP loses Bihar elections even by chance, though
victory or defeat will happen in Patna, firecrackers
will be burst in Pakistan” - See more at:
http://indianexpress.com/article/india/politics/ami
t-shahs-remarks-an-attempt-to-communalise-bihar-
elections-jdu/#sthash.b1kxF6Pv.dpuf
to be chased away with black magic.
That man — Amit Shah — is a man
eater"
–
Lalu Yadav
–
Amit Shah
"Nitish Kumar is only a mask and just
behind the mask is Jungle Raj. If Nitish
Kumar comes back to power, it will be the
return of Jungle Raj-2".
“The Bihar polls will be Mandal Raj versus
Kamandal Raj. We will show our strength
to them. It would rather be Mandal Raj part
2 instead of Jungle Raj part 2'”
–
Amit Shah
9 November 2015
–
Lalu Yadav
5

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