25 May 2016
Q4FY16 Results Update | Sector: Fertilizers
PI Industries
Buy
BSE SENSEX
25,881
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm/ Vol m
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
7,935
PI IN
137.1
87.0 / 1.3
756/495
-1/0/-6
159.7 / 0.3
48.3
CMP: INR634
TP: INR790 (+25%)
4QFY16 results in line with estimates; Strong recovery in FY17
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016 2017E 2018E
Net Sales
21.0
25.2
30.2
EBITDA
4.3
5.6
6.9
PAT
3.0
3.9
4.9
EPS (INR)
22.1
28.2
35.9
Gr. (%)
22.8
27.5
27.3
BV/Sh (INR)
85.8 108.5 137.7
RoE (%)
29.2
29.0
29.2
RoCE (%)
26.8
27.4
28.6
P/E (x)
28.7
22.5
17.7
P/BV (x)
7.4
5.8
4.6
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Revenue in line with estimate:
P I Industries Ltd (PI) reported revenue of
INR5,848m (vs. our estimate of INR5,907m) in 4QFY16, up 9% YoY, led by the
Agri business which grew by 17% YoY, while CSM grew by 6% YoY. EBITDA
margin expanded by 60bp YoY to 18.3% (vs. our estimate of 19.7%). EBITDA
stood at INR1,073m (vs. our estimate of INR1,164m), up 12.6% YoY. Adjusted
PAT grew by 64% YoY to INR934m (vs. our estimate of INR759m), due to lower
tax of INR14m in 4QFY16, as compared to INR253m in 4QFY15, as a result of
tax benefits enjoyed from the Jambusar facility. The strong growth in PI’s Agri
business was driven by growth across all its products, boosted by horticulture.
High execution visibility, good monsoon to aid strong recovery in FY17:
CSM’s
order book stood at USD850m (4.4x FY16 revenue), up 47% YoY, and included
orders from new products as well as some long-term contracts of 4-5 years, as
compared to earlier contracts of 3-4 years. With signs of a pick-up in the global
agri-chem market, steady launch of 2-3 new commercial molecules by PI every
year and two of its new Jambusar plants now on stream, CSM is expected to
recover and record a CAGR of 21% over FY16-18. The domestic agri-chem
business is also expected to post a strong CAGR of 19% over FY16-18, on the
back of newly launched products, like Vibrant, as well as good traction in other
products, and expectations of a normal monsoon.
Foray into pharma CRAMS to be the new trigger:
The company will foray into
CRAMS for early intermediates for pharma where it has already identified the
products and is conducting due diligence at an advanced stage. PI will leverage
its existing relationship and target new clients across geographies with the
minimal initial investment expected to be INR200m.
Valuation and view:
We expect a CAGR of 20% in revenue and 27% in PAT over
FY16-18, led by expansion of 130bp in EBITDA margin for FY17 and 80bp for
FY18 (higher capacity utilization), and lower tax rate of 24% due to benefits
from the new Jambusar facilities. We maintain
Buy
rating with a target price of
INR790, valuing the stock at 22x FY18E EPS.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Niket Shah
(Niket.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5426
Chintan Modi
(Chintan.Modi@MotilalOswal.com); +912239825422/Kaustubh
Kale
(Kaustubh.Kale@MotilalOswal.com); +912230102498
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.