Allcargo Logistics
BSE SENSEX
27,990
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,633
AGLL IN
252.1
47.9 / 0.7
222 / 128
-1/7/20
52
30.1
23 August 2016
1QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Logistics
CMP: INR190
TP: INR229(+21%)
Buy
IndAS impacts earnings; volume growth steady amidst macro headwinds
AGLL reported below estimate EBITDA at INR1.3b (vs est. of INR1.4b; -5% YoY).
While reported EBIT stood at INR861m (-2% YoY) and PAT at INR624m (-7% YoY)
was impacted by higher tax rate at 29% (v/s 20% in FY16). Allcargo adjusted
goodwill against net worth to the extent of INR6.2 (of the total INR9b as on March
2016) under IndAS provisions.
MTO volumes up 7% YoY despite weak macros:
AGLL’s MTO volumes grew 7%
YoY to 120,971 TEUs in 1QFY17 led by China, SE Asia and some parts of Europe.
Realizations declined 11% YoY led by lower freight rates, while EBIT margin
increased to 4.8% (v/s 3.8% in 1QFY16). We expect the current volume growth
to sustain in the medium term despite weak macros, as AGLL’s presence across
164 countries helps it to benefit from pockets of high growth areas.
CFS benefitted by market share gains:
CFS volumes stood at 75,118 TEUs (+4%
YoY, +13% QoQ). CFS revenue stood at INR1.1b (+6% YoY). Realizations (incl.
ICD volumes) stood at INR13,041/TEU as compared to INR13,185/TEU in
1QFY16. EBIT/TEU stood at INR3,641/TEU (v/s INR3,963 in 1QFY16), impacted
by pre-operating expenses for Kolkata CFS (as per IndAS, earlier was
capitalized). While lower EXIM volumes is a near term challenge, expect market
share gains to help Allcargo to report ~7% volume growth in CFS.
P&E impacted by shipping one-offs:
P&E segment’s EBIT stood at INR180m (-
22% (YoY) impacted by (a) dry-docking of one ship, (b) letting go of low-margin
equipment business and (c) higher depreciation for 2 ships bought in July 2015.
Valuation and view:
AGLL with (a) current businesses largely in steady state and minimal capex
requirement and (b) strong balance sheet and ~9% FCF yield; is well placed to
invest in DFC/GST led opportunities.
With effective tax rate increasing (no change in cash tax though) from 20% to
~28%, EPS gets reduced by ~11% and further impacted by higher deprecation
(IndAS impact) resulting in ~EPS cut of ~15% in FY17/FY18.
We value Allcargo Logistics at FY18E EV/EBITDA of 9x and arrive at a fair value
of INR229. On FY18E, the stock trades at P/E of 13.5x and EV/EBITDA of
INR6.8x.
Maintain buy.
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016 2017E 2018E
Net Sales
56.8
59.1
64.0
EBITDA
5.2
5.6
6.4
PAT
2.9
2.8
3.5
EPS (INR)
11.4
11.1
14.0
Gr. (%)
23.9
(2.6) 26.3
BV/Sh (INR)
87.5
71.6
82.9
RoE (%)
14.0
14.0
18.2
RoCE (%)
11.6
11.5
14.9
P/E (x)
16.7
17.1
13.5
P/BV (x)
2.2
2.7
2.3
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Harshad Borawake
(HarshadBorawake@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5432
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.