BSE SENSEX
27,836
S&P CNX
8,592
LIC Housing Finance
CMP: INR558
Re-rating on the cards
25 August 2016
Update
| Sector:
Financials
TP: INR761 (+36%)
Buy
Falling yields favor LICHF due to liability mix
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
12M Avg Val (INR m)
Free float (%)
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016
2017E
2018E
LICHF IN
505.0
567 / 389
8/16/21
281.8
4.2
1,108
59.7
LIC Housing Finance (LICHF) stands to benefit significantly from the growing
demand of mortgages coupled with falling interest rates. Over the past two years,
improvement in borrowing profile has led to margin expansion – we expect this to
continue. Its NPA ratio is comparable to the best in the industry. Post an earnings
growth of 22% in FY16, we expect this momentum to sustain and model 23% PAT
CAGR over FY16-19. ROE is set to cross 20% in FY17 which would drive further re-
rating. The stock trades at 2.2x FY18 P/B, a discount to peers.
Buy
with a TP of
INR761 (3x FY18E P/B).
Improving spreads in highly competitive environment
Over the past two years, LICHF diversified its borrowing profile significantly. Share
of bank borrowings declined from ~25% then to ~10% now while the share of
market borrowings increased proportionately. With improving system-wide
liquidity over the past 4-5 months, bond yields have come off significantly (~40-
50bp). This is beneficial for LICHF as market borrowings comprise almost 90% of its
total borrowings. With NCDs worth INR222b (~20% of total outstanding
borrowings) maturing in FY17 and FY18, we believe that LICHF could save ~30bp in
cost of funds over next two years. LICHF is originating pure floating loans at ~9.5%
currently, while other home loans are originated at ~10%. These rates are
competitive with banks and LICHF would not need to reduce rates substantially
further. While incremental spreads have increased over the past few quarters to
~2.0% due to higher mix of LAP, we believe these levels should sustain given
above-mentioned tailwinds, despite stable LAP share.
NII
PPP
Adj. PAT
Adj. EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh (INR)
RoAA (%)
RoE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
29.4
27.1
16.4
32.5
21.8
181.1
1.5
19.3
17.2
3.1
36.8
34.1
20.4
40.4
24.4
213.6
1.5
20.5
13.8
2.6
44.0
40.5
25.3
50.1
24.0
253.8
1.6
21.4
11.1
2.2
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Jun-16 Mar-16 Jun-15
Promoter
40.3
40.3
40.3
DII
37.6
6.1
7.3
FII
0.0
27.5
37.4
Others
22.1
26.0
15.1
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
LIC Housing Fin.
Sensex - Rebased
580
520
460
400
340
Robust loan growth to continue
LICHF has a granular loan book with retail home loans comprising ~88% of the total
book and the LAP book comprising an additional ~10% of the total book. Since
around two-thirds of loan sourcing is from LIC agents, the company is able access
the length and breadth of the country. We believe LICHF will be a big beneficiary of
the tax incentives announced in the FY17 Union Budget. We expect loan book Cagr
of 19% over FY16-19E.
Asset quality has remained strong consistently
LICHF has robust asset quality, with GNPA of 0.59% (Individual segment: 0.35%)
and NNPA of 0.29%. This compares very well with its private-sector HFC peers. The
company has sustained good asset quality over the past several years due to its
stringent underwriting discipline. Loan-to-value ratio on incremental
disbursements is 47% while installment-to-income ratio is 32%, down from 34% in
FY15. Management commented that from more than INR2tn disbursed to date, net
credit losses have been only INR600m. Asset quality is expected to remain stable,
which would support RoE and drive re-rating.
Sunesh Khanna
(Sunesh.Khanna@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5521
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com)/Piran
Engineer
(Piran.Engineer@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1539
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

LIC Housing Finance
Falling bond yields provide upside to margins
Tailwind to margins despite heightened competition
We expect the sharp decline in bond yields in the past 4-5 months to benefit LICHF
given the high share of market borrowings in its liability mix
Over 20% of NCDs will mature over FY17 and FY18, thus providing significant savings
on refinancing
LICHF’s variable-rate home loan product is competitive with large banks with regards
pricing. Banks may not have much scope to reduce rates further without reducing
MCLR
Margins should improve marginally despite severe competition in home loans
Falling bond yields due to improving system liquidity a boost for LICHF
Share of bank borrowings is
only 10% of total
borrowings
Over the past two years, LICHF has diversified its borrowing profile significantly.
Share of bank borrowings declined from ~25% then to ~10% now while the
share of market borrowings increased proportionately.
Exhibit 1: Borrowing mix shift towards market borrowings
NCD
10.0
25.5
9.8
19.2
9.8
17.6
Bank borrowings
10.0
16.8
9.6
15.2
10.6
12.5
Others
10.0
12.7
9.6
10.8
64.5
71.0
72.6
73.2
75.2
76.9
77.3
79.6
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
Source: MOSL, Company
Hence, LICHF reaped the twin benefit of interest rate decline in the economy as
well as shift in liability mix towards lower cost borrowings.
Cost of borrowings spiked
in 4QFY16 due to system
wide liquidity deficit
Exhibit 2: Incremental borrowings and corresponding cost of funds (calculated)
9.71
9.55
Borrowings (INR b)
9.03
8.71
Cost of funds (%)
8.96
8.88
8.41
9.07
8.70
28
1QFY15
116
2QFY15
89
3QFY15
104
4QFY15
74
1QFY16
103
2QFY16
116
3QFY16
156
4QFY16
98
1QFY17
Source: MOSL, Company
25 August 2016
2

LIC Housing Finance
Exhibit 3: Weighted avg. CoF for bank borrowings and NCDs
Banks
NCD
Exhibit 4: Weighted average cost of funds for LICHF
9.68
9.50
9.48
9.38
9.29
9.18
9.14
9.08
3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17
Source: MOSL, Company
Source: MOSL, Company
There would be significant
benefits to the company
from falling GSec yields.
Over the past 4-5 months, system-wide liquidity has moved from deficit to
neutral/surplus. Due to significant OMOs by the RBI, bond yields have come off
significantly (~40-50bp). This is highly beneficial for LICHF as market borrowings
comprise ~90% of total borrowings.
Exhibit 6: GoI 3-year bond yield (%)
8.1
7.8
7.5
7.2
6.9
6.6
Exhibit 5: GoI 5-year bond yield (%)
8.1
7.8
7.5
7.2
6.9
6.6
6.3
Aug-15
Nov-15
Feb-16
May-16
Aug-16
6.3
Aug-15
Nov-15
Feb-16
May-16
Aug-16
Source: MOSL, Company
Source: MOSL, Company
With 20% of borrowings
maturing over next two
years, we expect ~30bp
reduction in cost of funds.
The company has NCDs worth INR222b (~20% of total outstanding borrowings)
maturing in FY17 and FY18. NCDs currently bear an interest rate of ~9.2-9.5%.
Given that 5-year GoI bond yields are currently at ~7.0%, we believe that LICHF
will be able to raise funds at ~7.75%. This would translate into ~30bp decline in
cost of funds.
25 August 2016
3

LIC Housing Finance
Exhibit 7: Quarter-wise maturity of NCDs outstanding – Good refinancing opportunity
33.6
33.5
37.7
20.6
23.3
21.2
9.5
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
4QFY18
Source: MOSL, Company, Data from Annual Report 2015
In addition, incremental borrowings to support 18-20% balance sheet growth
will be at significantly lower costs compared to outstanding borrowings. This
would help reduce weighted average cost of funds.
Note that LICHF has enjoyed AAA rating since 2002.
Exhibit 9: Maturity pattern of loans and borrowings
Total borrowings
Loans
750
Exhibit 8: Maturity pattern of liabilities
Bank borrowings
Market borrowings
124
46
222
232
219
267
285
132
129
253
36
53
34
160
65
<1 year
<1 year
1-3 yr
3-5 yr
> 5 yr
1-3 yr
3-5 yr
> 5 yr
Source: MOSL, Company, Note: Data for Annual Report, 2015
Source: MOSL, Company, Note: Data for Annual Report, 2015
We expect LICHF to reap significant benefits on cost of borrowings and build in
90bps reduction in cost of funds over the next 3 years.
Exhibit 10: Cost of funds should decline significantly over the next three years
9.1
9.5
9.5
9.3
9.0
8.5
8.3
8.1
FY19E
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
Source: MOSL, Company
25 August 2016
4

LIC Housing Finance
Loan pricing competitive with banks
Banks are offering home
loans with thin spreads over
their MCLR. Hence, further
reduction in home loan
rates without lowering
MCLR is unlikely.
Housing finance remains a highly competitive and crowded segment, especially
in the absence of credit growth elsewhere in the system. Home loan rates in
India have been at a marginal premium to the 10-year AAA-rated corporate
bond yields.
Historically, banks have offered home loans at marginal (20-25bp) premium over
their base rates. With the new MCLR system in place, banks will also have to
reduce MCLR in order to lower their home-loan rates, which is unlikely. As such,
banks do not have much bandwidth to reduce home loan rates without altering
their MCLR. Hence, we expect HFCs to remain competitive with respect to price.
Exhibit 11: Home loan rates offered by banks are at a marginal premium to MCLR
HDFCB
ICICIBC
AXSB
SBIN
BOB
1-yr MCLR (%)
9.10
9.15
9.25
9.10
9.40
Home loan rate (%)
9.45
9.40
9.45
9.35
9.65
Source: MOSL, Company
LICHF is offering loans at
very competitive interest
rates.
LICHF is originating pure floating loans at ~9.5% currently, while other home
loans are originated at ~10%. We believe that with such competitive rates, loan
off-take would be strong.
56% of the loan book is floating rate. However, this does not include the ‘fixed-
to-floating’ products. Yet, with a significant proportion of the book currently
fixed rate, we expect loan yields to decline only modestly.
Exhibit 12: LICHF has a significant proportion of fixed rate book
Share of floating rate loans (%)
33
37
31
35
40
47
56
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
Source: MOSL, Company
25 August 2016
5

LIC Housing Finance
Exhibit 13: Trend in loan yields
10.5
10.6
10.7
10.6
10.5
10.4
10.3
10.2
FY19E
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
Source: MOSL, Company
Spreads have increased in the past few quarters; should sustain going
forward
Incremental spreads, which
have increased significantly
in the past year, would
sustain due to reduction in
cost of funds.
Incremental spreads of LICHF have increased over the past few quarters. This is
partly due to the proportion of LAP loans increasing from 4.6% in FY15 to 9.3%
in 1QFY17.
Also, with bond yields coming off sharply in the past 4-5 months and loan yields
relatively stable, we believe incremental spreads will continue to remain strong.
Exhibit 15: Incremental spreads will sustain at ~2.0%
Home loan
Yield (Incremental)
Share of disbursements
Incremental CoF
Weighted Avg Yield
Incremental Spreads
Source: MOSL, Company
10.0%
88.0%
8.1%
10.2%
2.1%
Source: MOSL, Company
Non-retail
12.0%
12.0%
8.1%
Exhibit 14: Incremental spreads (reported)
Incremental spreads
Exhibit 16: NIMs should improve marginally over the medium term (%)
Margins
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.5
2.7
2.7
2.7
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
Source: MOSL, Company
25 August 2016
6

LIC Housing Finance
Robust loan growth to continue
Pan-India network and government initiatives to sustain loan growth
Over two-thirds of loan sourcing is from LIC agents, thus giving the company access to
the length and breadth of the country
The tax benefits on home loans announced in the latest Union Budget as well as the
th
7 Pay Commission recommendations bode well for LICHF
LICHF’s share of retail home loans (ex-LAP) at ~88% is significantly higher than peers
Pan-India reach across urban and rural geographies
LIC agents source two-
thirds of loans. Hence, the
company has a broad reach
across the country.
LICHF’s loan origination is well diversified, with LIC agents comprising
approximately two-thirds of disbursements. This is one of the biggest
advantages for the company. Without a physical presence, it is able to access
the length and breadth of the country.
Exhibit 17: Bulk of loan sourcing is through agents
3
3
12
19
HLA
3
4
11
19
DSA
3
5
9
18
CRA
3
3
9
20
Direct
4
2
9
20
LICHFL FSL
4
3
8
21
4
7
9
14
63
63
65
65
65
64
66
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
Source: MOSL, Company
Incremental disbursements
coming from non-metro
cities
LICHF has a balanced mix of disbursements in metropolitan cities, as well as
other towns and cities. However, the share of disbursements in the top 7 cities
has been declining.
Exhibit 18: Share of loan disbursements of non-metro cities has been increasing
Top 7 cities
Others
49
49
52
53
54
54
51
51
48
47
46
46
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
Source: MOSL, Company
25 August 2016
7

LIC Housing Finance
Primarily into retail home financing
Individual loans comprise
97% of total loans. The
share is much higher than
peers.
With retail home loans (ex-LAP) accounting for over 88% of its loan book and
salaried employees 82%, LICHF is a pure play on the retail middle-class home
loan market in India.
LICHF has recorded strong and consistent growth, along with stable asset quality
over the past several years. It has recorded AUM CAGR of 19% and PAT CAGR of
16% over FY11-16.
Unlike some of its peers, individual loans remain a core focus area. Average
ticket size of disbursements is ~INR1.9m. Developer loans account for only ~3%
of the overall book.
Exhibit 19: Share of retail home loans (ex-LAP)
93
88
80
73
72
53
GRUH
LICHF
Repco
HDFC
DEWH
IHFL
Source: MOSL, Company
Within individual loans, LAP accounts for only ~10% of the total book. Moreover,
LAP book is highly granular with average ticket size of INR1.2-1.3m. Hence,
LICHF is the lowest-risk player among HFCs.
Exhibit 21: Trend in mix of incremental loan book
Exhibit 20: Trend in loan mix
Individual Loans
2.5
4.6
2.5
4.8
2.6
5.6
LAP
2.6
6.4
Developer
2.8
8.8
2.9
9.3
Individual Loans
17
8
29
33
LAP
3
Developer
5
45
11
37
92.9
92.7
91.8
84
91.0
88.5
4QFY16
87.8
1QFY17
3QFY15
-1
63
64
50
52
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
Source: MOSL, Company
Source: MOSL, Company
Impetus from government initiatives
In the Union Budget for FY17, the Indian government announced additional
interest deduction of INR50,000 per annum (over and above the prevailing
INR0.2m) for first-time home buyers for loans up to INR3.5m.
25 August 2016
8

LIC Housing Finance
Exhibit 22: Additional tax exemption of INR50,000 significantly reduces borrowing cost
INR
Loan Amount
Interest rate
Interest amount
Tax deduction
Tax Saving
Net Interest paid
Effective interest rate
Earlier
3,500,000
10%
350,000
200,000
40,000
310,000
8.86%
Now
3,500,000
10%
350,000
250,000
50,000
300,000
8.57%
Source: MOSL, Company; Assuming income tax slab of 20% for borrower
Tax sops announced for
home buyers coupled with
government’s trust on
affordable housing bode
well for LICHF
LICHF is likely to be a major beneficiary as: a) almost all of LICHF’s customers are
first-time borrowers; b) LICHF has a pan-India presence, coupled with a strong
distribution network in Tier 2-5 cities and brand lineage of LIC of India to fully
exploit this opportunity; and c) 46% of business originates from the outskirts of
top 7 cities and incremental average ticket size is INR1.95m (as on 1QFY17).
Moreover, with a slew of measures to boost affordable housing, builder interest
in affordable housing is on the rise. We remain confident that this segment will
continue witnessing good growth opportunities over the near-to-medium term.
Exhibit 24: Strong and consistent AUM growth
growth %
18
19
18
23
17
AUM (INR b)
19
16
19
growth %
19
19
Exhibit 23: Disbursement trend
Disbursements (INR b)
22
20
19
4
244
FY13
253
FY14
303
FY15
362
FY16
428
FY17E
509
FY18E
602
FY19E
778
FY13
913
FY14
1,084
FY15
1,252
FY16
1,494
FY17E
1,782
FY18E
2,118
FY19E
Source: MOSL, Company
Source: MOSL, Company
25 August 2016
9

LIC Housing Finance
Asset quality comparable to private sector peers
Conservative underwriting ensures best-in-class asset quality
LICHF enjoys superior asset quality compared to private sector peers, as over 97% of
its loan book is to individuals
This is a result of its conservative underwriting philosophy of keeping LTVs low
With 97% of loan book
comprising individual loans,
asset quality is robust and
better than peers.
Asset quality remains healthy as LICHF is a plain vanilla mortgage player and has
the lowest risk book among housing finance companies with retail assets
forming 97%+ of the loan book. Retail asset quality at LICHF has been improving
over the past few years.
As of 1QFY17, retail GNPL ratio was only 0.32%. We do not foresee any asset
quality deterioration in the individual loan book. While the legacy developer
book has been a cause of some concern for LICHF, the overall share of the
developer book is minimal.
LICHF follows a conservative underwriting philosophy. Average LTV of sanctions
is 47% (down from 55% in FY14), while installment-to-income ratio (IIR) is 32%
(down from 35% in FY14).
Exhibit 25: Overall asset quality has been stable; corporate, however, has been stressed
Individual
Total
13.3
Corporate
8.7
0.7
FY10
0.5
FY11
0.4
FY12
0.3
0.6
0.3
0.7
8.8
9.4
0.2
0.5
0.2 0.5
FY16
FY13
FY14
FY15
Source: MOSL, Company
Exhibit 26: LTV and IIR have been declining
LTV (%)
IRR (%)
Exhibit 27: LICHF has superior asset quality v/s private
sector peers
GNPA %
0.98
0.75
0.56
0.59
0.84
3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17
Source: MOSL, Company
GRUH
LICHF
HDFC
IHFL
DEWH
Source: MOSL, Company
25 August 2016
10

LIC Housing Finance
Strong, consistent return ratios
LICHF continues to generate strong and consistent performance
LICHF has delivered strong and consistent growth as well as RoA/RoE over the past
five years.
Given the current tailwinds, we expect 19% AUM growth over the next three years
along with RoE of ~20% consistently
LICHF has delivered strong
and consistent AUM growth
as well as return ratios over
the past five years.
LICHF has delivered strong AUM CAGR of 19% and consistent RoA of 1.4-1.6%
over the past five years. RoE too has been strong and consistent at 18-20%.
At the same time, the company has maintained its asset quality
LICHF is able to operate at much higher leverage than peers (12-13x for LICHF
v/s 8-9x for HDFC) due to its low-risk business model (97% of loan book is to
individuals). Yet, it enjoys AAA rating.
LICHF has a strong balance sheet and is well capitalized (Tier I ratio of 13.9%).
While we do not foresee any capital raise in the next 1-2 years, any capital raise
(assuming current market price) would be accretive to BVPS and thus boost total
shareholder return.
We expect LICHF to post loan book CAGR of 19% and PAT CAGR of 23% over
FY16-19E. RoE should average 20% over the medium term.
Exhibit 28: DuPont Analysis
LIC Housing Finance
Interest Income
Interest Expenses
Net Interest Income
Non interest Income
Fee Income
Treasury Income
Other Income
Net Income
Operating Expenses
Cost to income (%)
Employees
Others
Operating Profits
Provisions/write offs
PBT
Tax
Tax Rate (%)
PAT
Leverage (x)
RoE
FY15
10.9
8.6
2.3
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.0
2.6
0.4
15.2
0.1
0.3
2.2
0.0
2.2
0.7
34.1
1.4
12.6
17.5
FY16
10.9
8.3
2.6
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
2.8
0.4
14.7
0.1
0.3
2.4
0.1
2.3
0.8
35.2
1.5
13.2
19.3
FY17E
10.6
7.9
2.7
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
3.0
0.4
14.0
0.1
0.3
2.5
0.2
2.4
0.8
35.0
1.5
13.5
20.5
FY18E
10.4
7.7
2.7
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
2.9
0.4
14.3
0.1
0.3
2.5
0.1
2.4
0.8
34.0
1.6
13.8
21.4
FY19E
10.3
7.5
2.8
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
2.9
0.4
14.2
0.1
0.3
2.5
0.1
2.4
0.8
34.0
1.6
13.8
21.8
LICHF will sustain margins
of ~2.6% and RoE of ~20%
over the next three years
Source: MOSL, Company
25 August 2016
11

LIC Housing Finance
Exhibit 29: RoE of ~20% best-in-class
RoA
16.8
17.2
17.5
19.3
RoE
20.5
21.4
21.8
1.5
1.5
1.4
FY15
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.6
FY13
FY14
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
Source: MOSL, Company
LICHF has much lower
margins than HDFC and
IHFL due to higher share of
retail home loans and
higher leverage. However,
RoE is comparable with
peers
Exhibit 30: DuPont analysis – Peer Comparison
FY16
Interest Income
Interest Expenses
Net Interest Income
Non-interest Income
Net Income
Operating Expenses
Cost to income (%)
Operating Profits
Provisions/write offs
PBT
Tax
PAT
Leverage (x)
RoE
LICHF
10.9
8.3
2.6
0.2
2.8
0.4
14.7
2.4
0.1
2.3
0.8
1.5
13.2
19.3
HDFC
10.3
7.1
3.2
0.9
4.1
0.4
10.7
3.7
0.1
3.6
1.1
2.5
8.2
21.4
DEWH
11.6
9.1
2.5
0.6
3.0
0.9
30.1
2.1
0.3
1.8
0.6
1.2
12.4
15.1
IHFL
12.5
8.0
4.6
2.2
6.8
1.0
14.7
5.8
0.8
5.0
1.2
3.8
7.2
27.1
Source: MOSL, Company
25 August 2016
12

LIC Housing Finance
Remains attractive - Re-rating on the cards
Re-rating imminent given return ratios comparable to peers
We upgrade our EPS estimates for FY17/18 by 2%/6% given the tailwinds to margins
At 2.2x FY18 P/B, the company is undervalued as compared to peers that mostly trade
above 3x FY18 P/B
LICHF’s growth and return
ratios are as good as private
sector peers
LICHF’s RoE of ~20% as well as loan book growth of 19-20% is in line with private
sector peers, and in some cases, better than peers
With the several tailwinds over the medium term, we upgrade our estimates for
FY17/18 by 2%/6%
At CMP of INR558/share, LICHF trades at 2.2x FY18E P/B. This is a significant
discount to peers, which trade at more than 3x FY18E P/B. Given its steady
performance, we believe the company is set for a re-rating. We expect the
valuation gap vis-à-vis peers should narrow.
Buy
with a TP of INR761 (3x FY18E P/B).
Exhibit 32: HDFC P/B
Avg(x)
Min(x)
2.2
PB (x)
Peak(x)
Avg(x)
Min(x)
6.4
5.2
4.7
2.4
Exhibit 31: LICHF P/B
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1.7
0.5
PB (x)
Peak(x)
2.9
8.0
6.5
5.0
3.5
2.0
Source: MOSL, Company
Source: MOSL, Company
Exhibit 33: DEWH P/B
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1.1
0.3
1.1
PB (x)
Peak(x)
Avg(x)
Min(x)
2.8
Exhibit 34: IHFL P/B
3.3
2.6
1.9
1.2
0.5
1.5
0.6
PB (x)
Peak(x)
Avg(x)
3.0
Min(x)
2.7
Source: MOSL, Company
Source: MOSL, Company
Exhibit 35: GRUH P/B
14.0
9.5
5.0
0.5
5.2
1.1
PB (x)
Peak(x)
Avg(x)
Min(x)
12.3
9.3
Exhibit 36: REPCO P/B
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
1.4
3.3
PB (x)
Peak(x)
Avg(x)
Min(x)
4.6
4.4
Source: MOSL, Company
Source: MOSL, Company
25 August 2016
13

LIC Housing Finance
Valuation Matrix
Rating
66
CMP
(INR)
Mcap
EPS (INR)
P/E (x)
BV (INR)
P/BV (x)
RoA (%)
RoE (%)
FY17 FY18
10.6
18.9
13.8
14.2
22.0
16.2
7.9
8.0
11.3
12.7
10.7
11.3
19.6
14.4
15.4
23.1
17.6
9.1
9.0
11.7
13.7
11.7
Dividend
Yield (%)
#
2.0
0.8
0.9
0.1
0.7
0.4
1.2
1.0
0.0
2.5
2.2
1.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.5
0.0
0.7
0.0
FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18
(USDb)
ICICIBC*
Buy
247
21.8 17.2 19.9 10.9 8.5 144 158 1.25 1.07 1.13 1.17
HDFCB
Buy
1,258 48.2 58.4 70.2 21.5 17.9 332 386 3.79 3.26 1.90 1.89
AXSB
Buy
586
21.2 31.8 37.4 18.4 15.7 243 274 2.41 2.14 1.32 1.31
KMB*
Buy
781
21.7 26.8 34.0 29.2 23.0 207 240 3.77 3.25 1.61 1.82
YES
Buy
1,344
8.6
78.8 99.2 17.0 13.5 390 469 3.44 2.86 1.80 1.84
IIB
Buy
1,182 10.7 50.5 63.8 23.4 18.5 334 389 3.53 3.04 1.92 1.96
IDFC Bk
Buy
55
2.8
3.3
4.0 16.7 13.6 43
46
1.28 1.19 1.19 1.08
FB
Buy
67
1.7
3.9
4.7 17.1 14.3 50
54
1.34 1.25 0.67 0.67
DCBB
Buy
115
0.5
7.4
8.6 15.6 13.3 69
78
1.66 1.48 0.98 0.93
JKBK
Neutral
70
0.5
17.6 21.2 4.0
3.3 146 162 0.48 0.43 0.99 1.05
SIB
Buy
22
0.5
3.1
3.7
7.3
6.1
30
33
0.75 0.68 0.61 0.64
Private Aggregate
138.1
20.2 16.9
2.69 2.39
SBIN (cons)*
Buy
250
29.4 14.7 24.3 17.0 10.3 234 253 1.03 0.94 0.47 0.54
PNB
Neutral
126
3.7
10.8 12.8 11.6 9.8 193 204 0.65 0.62 0.31 0.34
BOI
Neutral
114
1.6 -10.8 21.6 -10.6 5.3 239 255 0.48 0.44 -0.16 0.29
BOB
Buy
162
5.7
14.1 20.0 11.5 8.1 157 173 1.03 0.94 0.47 0.60
CBK
Neutral
270
2.2
25.4 34.8 10.7 7.8 497 524 0.54 0.52 0.24 0.30
UNBK
Buy
134
1.4
22.4 39.1 6.0
3.4 314 348 0.43 0.39 0.37 0.58
OBC
Neutral
119
0.6
16.7 24.2 7.1
4.9 410 428 0.29 0.28 0.23 0.30
INBK
Buy
223
1.6
24.8 31.4 9.0
7.1 300 324 0.74 0.69 0.56 0.64
ANDB
Buy
59
1.8
2.9
8.2 20.0 7.2 129 136 0.45 0.43 0.15 0.39
Public Aggregate
48.1
15.1 9.8
0.76 0.72
Banks Aggregate
186.2
18.6 14.3
1.63 1.49
HDFC*
Buy
1,358 32.5 34.6 37.9 27.2 21.4 194 217 4.20 3.30 1.85 1.83
LICHF
Buy
558
4.3
39.5 47.3 14.1 11.8 213 251 2.62 2.22 1.49 1.51
IHFL
Buy
823
5.3
68.2 84.0 12.1 9.8 280 315 2.94 2.61 3.74 3.78
GRHF
Buy
316
1.7
8.3 10.7 37.9 29.6 28
35 11.12 8.94 2.33 2.34
REPCO
Buy
812
0.8
30.4 39.7 26.7 20.5 180 215 4.52 3.78 2.15 2.20
DEWH
Buy
280
1.2
30.5 38.2 9.2
7.3 194 222 1.45 1.26 1.25 1.34
Housing Finance
45.8
21.7 18.4
4.37 3.86
RECL
Neutral
232
3.5
59.2 68.6 3.9
3.4 336 389 0.69 0.60 2.63 2.55
POWF
Neutral
239
4.8
46.8 49.1 5.1
4.9
72
107 3.33 2.24 2.69 2.35
Infra Finance
8.2
4.5 4.1
1.28 1.04
SHTF
Buy
1,250
4.3
68.4 84.6 18.3 14.8 503 570 2.48 2.19 1.96 2.01
MMFS
Buy
332
2.8
13.9 18.1 24.0 18.4 118 131 2.82 2.54 1.92 2.19
BAF
Buy
10,281 8.3 345.9 442.0 29.7 23.3 1,663 2,040 6.18 5.04 3.48 3.38
MUTH
Buy
326
2.0
28.0 33.6 11.6 9.7 159 180 2.05 1.81 3.66 3.57
SKSM
Buy
764
1.5
48.8 52.5 15.7 14.6 157 210 4.85 3.64 6.30 4.48
Asset Finance
18.9
21.1 17.1
3.41 3.09
NBFC Aggregate
72.9
15.1 13.0
3.25 2.82
Financials
259.1
17.5 13.9
1.89 1.72
*Multiples adj. for value of key ventures/Investments; For HDFC Ltd BV is adjusted for investments in subsidiaries
7.9 9.5
5.7 6.5
-4.6 8.7
9.3 12.1
5.2 6.8
7.4 11.8
4.2 5.8
8.5 10.1
2.3 6.2
19.5
20.1
25.6
32.4
18.3
16.7
19.0
20.9
28.2
33.5
20.1
18.4
1.3
1.0
4.4
0.6
0.3
7.1
7.4
5.8
0.8
1.2
0.5
3.1
0.0
18.9 18.9
85.1 55.0
14.4
12.3
22.8
18.7
36.7
15.6
14.5
23.9
19.9
28.6
25 August 2016
14

LIC Housing Finance
Financials and Valuations
Income Statement
Y/E March
Interest Income
Interest Expense
Net Interest Income
Change (%)
Fee Income
Income from Investments
Other Income
Net Income
Change (%)
Operating Expenses
Operating Income
Change (%)
Provisions/write offs
PBT
Tax
Tax Rate (%)
PAT
Change (%)
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
Proposed Dividend
2012
59,827
45,911
13,916
1.4
1,322
804
198
16,240
-8.3
2,371
13,870
-10.8
1,561
12,309
3,167
25.7
9,142
-6.2
10,011
-2.7
2,112
2013
74,591
59,246
15,345
10.3
1,549
617
-168
17,343
6.8
2,819
14,524
4.7
789
13,736
3,504
25.5
10,232
11.9
10,232
2.2
2,244
2014
90,733
71,744
18,990
23.8
1,080
1,083
450
21,603
24.6
3,133
18,470
27.2
215
18,255
5,083
27.8
13,172
28.7
12,017
17.4
2,657
2015
105,467
83,102
22,364
17.8
1,227
815
343
24,749
14.6
3,885
20,864
13.0
-20
20,884
7,158
34.3
13,727
4.2
13,466
12.1
3,022
2016
122,508
93,068
29,441
31.6
1,453
893
0
31,787
28.4
4,688
27,099
29.9
1,463
25,635
9,028
35.2
16,608
21.0
16,401
21.8
3,386
2017E
142,418
105,570
36,848
25.2
1,821
993
0
39,661
24.8
5,560
34,102
25.8
2,400
31,702
11,096
35.0
20,606
24.1
20,398
24.4
4,201
2018E
168,285
124,317
43,968
19.3
2,163
1,093
0
47,224
19.1
6,754
40,470
18.7
1,825
38,645
13,139
34.0
25,506
23.8
25,295
24.0
5,200
(INR Million)
2019E
198,525
145,311
53,214
21.0
2,557
1,193
0
56,964
20.6
8,091
48,873
20.8
2,120
46,753
15,896
34.0
30,857
21.0
30,646
21.2
6,291
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Capital
Reserves & Surplus
Net Worth
Borrowings
Change (%)
Total Liabilities
Investments
Change (%)
Loans
Change (%)
Net Fixed Assets
Net Current Assets
Total Assets
E: MOSL Estimates
2012
1,010
55,812
56,822
560,873
24.2
617,695
13,750
-2.0
630,802
23.5
623
-27,481
617,695
2013
1,010
63,803
64,813
687,641
22.6
752,454
18,673
35.8
778,120
23.4
624
-44,963
752,454
2014
2015
2016
2017E
1,010
1,010
1,010
1,010
74,319
77,174
90,450
106,855
75,329
78,184
91,460
107,865
820,356
965,319 1,109,360 1,374,642
19.3
17.7
14.9
23.9
895,685 1,043,503 1,200,820 1,482,507
1,993
2,371
2,609
2,869
-89.3
19.0
10.0
10.0
913,410 1,083,610 1,251,730 1,494,177
17.4
18.6
15.5
19.4
756
797
849
892
-20,474
-43,275
-54,368
-15,431
895,685 1,043,503 1,200,820 1,482,507
(INR Million)
2018E
2019E
1,010
1,010
127,161
151,727
128,171
152,737
1,639,115 1,948,816
19.2
18.9
1,767,286 2,101,552
3,099
3,316
8.0
7.0
1,781,647 2,118,278
19.2
18.9
925
948
-18,385
-20,989
1,767,286 2,101,552
25 August 2016
15

LIC Housing Finance
Financials and Valuations
Ratios
Y/E March
Spreads Analysis (%)
Avg. Yield on loans
Avg. Yield on Earning Assets
Avg. Cost-Int. Bear. Liab.
Int. Spread on Hsg. Loans
Net Int. Margin on Hsg. Loans
Profitability Ratios (%)
Adj RoAE
Adj RoAA
Int. Expended/Int.Earned
Other Inc./Net Income
Efficiency Ratios (%)
Fees/Operating income
Op. Exps./Net Income
Empl. Cost/Op. Exps.
Asset-Liability Profile (%)
Loans/Borrowings Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
Gross NPAs (Rs m)
Gross NPAs to Adv.
Net NPAs (Rs m)
Net NPAs to Adv.
CAR
2012
10.5
10.2
9.1
1.4
2.4
2013
10.6
10.2
9.5
1.1
2.2
2014
10.7
10.5
9.5
1.21
2.25
2015
10.6
10.3
9.3
1.25
2.24
2016
10.5
10.3
9.0
1.52
2.52
2017E
10.4
10.1
8.5
1.9
2.68
2018E
10.3
10.0
8.3
2.0
2.68
2019E
10.2
10.0
8.1
2.1
2.73
20.3
1.8
76.7
1.2
16.8
1.5
79.4
-1.0
17.2
1.5
79.1
2.1
17.5
1.4
78.8
1.4
19.3
1.5
76.0
0.0
20.5
1.5
74.1
0.0
21.4
1.6
73.9
0.0
21.8
1.6
73.2
0.0
2.1
14.6
30.6
2.0
16.3
32.1
1.2
14.5
33.1
1.1
15.7
34.1
1.2
14.7
32.1
1.3
14.0
33.8
1.3
14.3
34.8
1.3
14.2
34.8
112.5
9.9
2,652
0.4
849
0.1
13.0
113.2
10.6
4,712
0.6
1,953
0.3
12.5
111.3
10.9
6,090
0.7
3,534
0.4
16.4
112.3
12.3
4,947
0.5
2,344
0.2
16.5
112.8
12.1
5,489
0.4
2,744
0.2
15.5
108.7
12.7
6,114
0.4
3,057
0.2
14.5
108.7
12.8
6,712
0.4
3,356
0.2
13.5
108.7
12.8
7,425
0.3
3,712
0.2
10.5
Valuation
Book Value (INR)
Growth (%)
Price-BV (x)
Adjusted BV (INR)
Price-ABV (x)
EPS (INR)
Growth (%)
Price-Earnings (x)
Adj. EPS (INR)
Growth (%)
Price-Earnings (x)
Dividend Per Share
Dividend Yield (%)
E: MOSL Estimates
112.5
28.2
5.0
112.1
5.0
18.1
-11.7
30.8
19.8
-8.4
28.1
3.6
0.6
128.3
14.1
4.3
127.3
4.3
20.3
11.9
27.5
20.3
2.2
27.5
3.8
0.7
149.2
16.2
3.7
147.3
3.7
26.1
28.7
21.4
23.8
17.4
23.4
4.5
0.8
154.8
3.8
3.6
153.6
3.6
27.2
4.2
20.5
26.7
12.1
20.9
5.0
0.9
181.1
17.0
3.1
179.6
3.1
32.9
21.0
17.0
32.5
21.8
17.2
5.8
1.0
213.6
17.9
2.6
212.0
2.6
40.8
24.1
13.7
40.4
24.4
13.8
7.1
1.3
253.8
18.8
2.2
252.0
2.2
50.5
23.8
11.0
50.1
24.0
11.1
8.8
1.6
302.5
19.2
1.8
300.5
1.8
61.1
21.0
9.1
60.7
21.2
9.2
10.7
1.9
25 August 2016
16

PRODUCT GALLERY
Our recent reports on LICHF
Our recent reports on Financial sector
Our recent reports on other Financial companies

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report. To enhance transparency, MOSt has incorporated a Disclosure of Interest Statement in this document. This should, however, not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report.
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Pending Regulatory inspections against Motilal Oswal Securities Limited:
SEBI pursuant to a complaint from client Shri C.R. Mohanraj alleging unauthorized trading, issued a letter dated 29th April 2014 to MOSL notifying appointment of an Adjudicating Officer as per SEBI regulations to hold inquiry and
adjudge violation of SEBI Regulations; MOSL replied to the Show Cause Notice whereby SEBI granted us an opportunity of Inspection of Documents. Since all the documents requested by us were not covered we have requested
to SEBI vide our letter dated June 23, 2015 to provide pending list of documents for inspection.
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Regional Disclosures (outside India)
This report is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity resident in a state, country or any jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or
which would subject MOSt & its group companies to registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdictions.
For Hong Kong:
This report is distributed in Hong Kong by Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited, a licensed corporation (CE AYY-301) licensed and regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures
Commission (SFC) pursuant to the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong) “SFO”. As per SEBI (Research Analyst Regulations) 2014 Motilal Oswal Securities (SEBI Reg No. INH000000412)
has an agreement with Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited for distribution of research report in Kong Kong. This report is intended for distribution only to “Professional Investors” as defined in Part I of
Schedule 1 to SFO. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to professional investor and will be engaged only with professional investors.” Nothing here is an offer or solicitation of
these securities, products and services in any jurisdiction where their offer or sale is not qualified or exempt from registration. The Indian Analyst(s) who compile this report is/are not located in Hong Kong & are not conducting
Research Analysis in Hong Kong.
For U.S.
Motilal Oswal Securities Limited (MOSL) is not a registered broker - dealer under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the"1934 act") and under applicable state laws in the United States. In addition MOSL is
not a registered investment adviser under the U.S. Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended (the "Advisers Act" and together with the 1934 Act, the "Acts), and under applicable state laws in the United States. Accordingly, in
the absence of specific exemption under the Acts, any brokerage and investment services provided by MOSL, including the products and services described herein are not available to or intended for U.S. persons.
This report is intended for distribution only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by SEC (henceforth referred to as "major institutional investors"). This
document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not major institutional investors. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to major institutional investors and will be
engaged in only with major institutional investors. In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act") and interpretations thereof by
the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") in order to conduct business with Institutional Investors based in the U.S., MOSL has entered into a chaperoning agreement with a U.S. registered broker-dealer, Motilal
Oswal Securities International Private Limited. ("MOSIPL"). Any business interaction pursuant to this report will have to be executed within the provisions of this chaperoning agreement.
The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S. registered broker-dealer, MOSIPL, and
therefore, may not be subject to NASD rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communication with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
For Singapore
Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited is acting as an exempt financial advisor under section 23(1)(f) of the Financial Advisers Act(FAA) read with regulation 17(1)(d) of the Financial Advisors Regulations and is a
subsidiary of Motilal Oswal Securities Limited in India. This research is distributed in Singapore by Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited and it is only directed in Singapore to accredited investors, as defined in the
Financial Advisers Regulations and the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289), as amended from time to time.
In respect of any matter arising from or in connection with the research you could contact the following representatives of Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited:
Varun Kumar
Varun.kumar@motilaloswal.com
Contact : (+65) 68189232
Office Address:21 (Suite 31),16 Collyer Quay,Singapore 04931
Kadambari Balachandran
kadambari.balachandran@motilaloswal.com
(+65) 68189233 / 65249115
25 August 2016
Motilal Oswal Tower, Level 9, Sayani Road, Prabhadevi, Mumbai 400 025
Phone: +91 22 3982 5500 E-mail: reports@motilaloswal.com
Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd
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