1 September 2016
1QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Others
MCX
Buy
BSE SENSEX
28,452
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,786
MCX IN
51.0
50.5 / 0.7
1126/726
-7/5/-10
229.0
100
CMP: INR988
TP: INR1,200 (+21% )
Profit beat on lower costs
Revenue in line, lower costs drive profit beat:
MCX’s 1QFY17 revenue at INR582.3m grew 12.5% YoY and 4.7% QoQ; and
was in line with our estimate (INR595.6m). Revenue was a function of
volumes, at INR16t, up 17.7% YoY and 7.3% QoQ.
EBITDA was INR174.4m, above our estimate of INR147m, and EBITDA
margin of 29.9% was a 520bp beat. While staff expenses were above
estimate (INR143m v/s estimate of INR111m), ad, admin and other
expenses was well below estimate at INR159m, v/s estimate of INR222m.
Adjusted PAT (excluding exceptional items) was INR328m, above our
estimate of INR295m. PAT grew 21.1% QoQ and 30.5% YoY adjusted for the
exceptional items in previous quarters.
Silver-led volume uptick:
While Gold drive the volumes in the previous
quarter, this quarter’s driver of 7% volume growth was Silver. Volumes in Silver
grew 26.6% QoQ to INR2.43t
Salary base up, await clarity on the non-staff costs:
Lower non-staff costs
during the quarter drove EBITDA beat, more than offsetting higher staff costs.
However, we await clarity on any one-off impact during the quarter and likely
trajectory of non-staff costs going forward.
Some positive developments in recent months:
News articles indicating CME's
interest to own 15% stake, if true, would bring in a formidable global player that
would drive execution excellence to keep competition at bay. Additionally, SEBI
reportedly favors the chronology of new participants followed by exchanges. This
would give MCX an opportunity to further consolidate its position. Our base case of
INR500b average daily turnover (ADT) with 25% from options yields INR40 FY18
earnings. Our price target of INR1,200 discounts FY18E earnings by 30x. BUY.
FY16
2Q
563
8.8
109
318
65
71
12.7
338
409
99
24.2
310
23.5
6.1
14.8
9.2
18.5
FY17E
2Q
600
3.1
150
277
49
124
20.6
315
439
110
25.0
329
0.4
6.5
16.3
1.7
9.6
FY16
2,135
4.8
406
986
246
498
23.3
1,191
1,689
413
24.4
1,277
2.1
25.0
56.3
8.7
FY17E
2,400
12.4
595
1,031
198
577
24.0
1,325
1,902
487
25.6
1,414
238.2
27.7
68.5
21.6
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E March
3/16A 3/17E 3/18E
Sales
2.1
2.4
3.5
EBITDA
0.6
0.7
1.6
PAT
0.4
1.4
2.1
EPS (INR)
23.4
26.2
40.0
EPS Gr. (%)
-5.0
12.1
52.7
BV/Sh. (INR)
236.1 249.3 269.7
RoE (%
3.5
10.8
15.4
RoCE (%)
8.8
10.5
15.1
Payout (%)
0.0
69.3
60.5
P/E (x)
42.4
37.8
24.8
P/BV (x)
4.2
4.0
3.7
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Quarterly Performance
Sales
Q-o-Q Gr. (%)
Staff Costs
Other expenses
Depreciation
EBIT
Margins (%)
Other Income
PBT bef. Exceptional items
Tax
Rate (%)
PAT
Q-o-Q Gr. (%)
EPS (INR)
Total volumes (INR t)
Q-o-Q Gr. (%)
Y-o-Y Gr. (%)
E: MOSL Estimates
1Q
518
-1.8
90
282
63
83
16.1
300
382
131
34.3
251
-49.0
4.9
13.6
-3.5
15.4
(INR Million)
Est.
1QE
596
19.6
111
337
59
88
14.7
306
393
98
25.0
295
2.6
5.8
16.0
7.3
17.7
Var.
(%/bp)
(2.2)
-267bp
28.7
(21.5)
(17.2)
42.9
678bp
16.3
22.1
54.7
667bp
11.2
11.7
3Q
498
-11.6
100
264
64
70
14.0
276
346
110
31.8
236
-24.0
3.5
13.0
-12.0
-3.3
4Q
556
11.6
106
313
54
82
14.8
278
360
72
20.1
287
21.8
5.3
14.9
14.3
5.9
1Q
582
16.9
143
265
49
125
21.5
356
480
152
31.7
328
14.1
6.5
16.0
7.3
17.7
3Q
600
0.0
150
279
49
122
20.2
322
444
111
25.0
333
1.0
6.5
17.5
7.7
34.2
4Q
618
3.0
150
291
50
126
20.4
332
459
115
25.0
344
3.4
6.7
18.8
7.1
25.8
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Ashish Chopra
(Ashish.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1530
Sagar Lele
(Sagar.Lele@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1531