8 September 2016
1QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Capital Goods
Solar Industries
Buy
BSE SENSEX
28,926
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, (INR m)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,918
SOIL IN
90.5
58/ 0.9
760/570
-2/-14/-25
32
27.0
CMP: INR641
TP: INR725 (+13%)
1QFY17 operational performance in-line
In-line operational performance:
Solar Industries’ (SOIL) consolidated revenue
for 1QFY17 grew 10% YoY to INR4.2b (v/s our estimate of INR4.4b), EBITDA was
up 21.2% YoY to INR866m (v/s our estimate of INR836m), and EBITDA margin
expanded by 170bp YoY to 20.4% led by better product mix. Better margin
cartridge sales formed 35% of sales as against 29% in 1QFY16. Adjusted net
profit grew 13.9% YoY to INR471m (v/s our estimate of INR486m).
Revenue growth supported by strong performance from cartridge segment:
SOIL’s consolidated revenue growth of 10% YoY to INR4.2b (v/s our estimate of
INR4.4b) was driven by strong growth in the cartridge segment (up 33% YoY).
Detonators (27% YoY) and detonating fuse (59% YoY) also registered strong
growth. However bulk segment revenue declined 1% YoY despite volume
growth of 11%. Realization in the bulk segment remained under pressure and
declined by 10% YoY due to intensifying competition. Realization declined
across segments, as raw material (ammonium nitrate) cost declined 8% YoY,
which was passed on to the end consumer.
Overseas business performance impacted by currency devaluation:
Revenue
from overseas business declined 4% YoY, impacted by currency devaluation in
the key markets of Nigeria and Turkey. Nigerian currency declined by 82% YoY
and Turkish currency declined by 10% YoY. This led to translation loss of
INR200m. On constant currency basis, revenue grew 17% YoY.
Maintain Buy:
We maintain our Buy rating on the stock, with a target price of
INR725. We value SOIL at 30x FY18E EPS (earnings CAGR of 15% over FY16-18E)
after factoring in the possibility of continued strong growth due to ramp-up in
mining/infrastructure activities in India, increasing penetration overseas and
inflexion point in defense revenue. The stock’s premium valuations are also
justified by optimum revenue of ~INR5b (possibly ~FY20) from the defense
business.
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016 2017E 2018E
Net Sales
15.4
18.1
21.8
EBITDA
3.0
3.6
4.0
Adj PAT
1.1
1.5
1.8
EPS (INR)
18.4
20.9
24.2
EPS Gr. (%)
9.5
14.4
15.0
BV/Sh. (INR)
95.9 112.4 131.7
RoE (%)
19.1
18.6
18.4
RoCE (%)
21.1
20.3
21.3
P/E (x)
42.8
37.6
32.5
P/BV (x)
1.3
1.1
1.0
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Ankur Sharma
(Ankur.VSharma@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5449
Amit Shah
(Amit.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3029 5126
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.