12 Annual Global Investor Conference
BSE Sensex
28,926
S&P CNX
8,918
th
UltraTech Cement
TP: INR4,675 (+14%)
Mr KK Maheshwari
Managing Director
UltraTech Cement
Company update | Sector: Cement
CMP: INR4,089
Buy
CEO TRACK
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1,6,12 Rel. Perf. (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
UTCEM IN
274.4
4117/2581
4/19/27
1,122
16.9
922
37.7
Industry dynamics turning favorable
Takeaways from CEO track
We hosted Mr KK Maheshwari, MD of UltraTech Cement as part of CEO Track at our
conference. Here are the key takeaways from his presentation.
Cement demand at the cusp of a new cycle:
Over FY16-21, Mr Maheshwari expects
cement demand in India to closely track the growth trajectory in China in the 1990s.
Cement demand in China had increased multi-fold in the 1990s, led by infrastructure
development. In India too, the growth in cement demand would be initially led by
infrastructure – development of roads, railways, ports, power projects, and
irrigation facilities. Demand growth from the housing segment would be gradual and
back-ended.
Share of infrastructure in overall demand to increase:
Led by the current
government’s thrust towards faster implementation of infrastructure projects,
cement demand from the infrastructure segment is likely to grow at 1.5x the GDP
growth over FY16-21, implying a demand CAGR of 13%. This would generate
incremental demand of 53m tons over the next five years. Within the infrastructure
segment, demand growth would be led by (a) roads – investment of over INR2t by
the National Highway Authority of India (NHAI), and (b) irrigation projects – NABARD
has recently agreed to give funding to both state and central governments for
stalled projects worth INR2.5t. Cement demand from the commercial segment
would grow at a CAGR of 7.7% over FY16-21, as India is progressing towards being
one of the world’s largest service providers.
Housing demand to see gradual improvement:
Rural demand continues to be
impacted by muted growth in rural wages. However, the government’s focus on
providing housing as a basic need in economically backward regions should drive 5%
CAGR in demand from the housing segment over FY16-21, generating incremental
demand of 48m tons over the period. Government initiatives like low cost housing
projects (planned investments of INR2t) and smart cities would propel demand from
rural housing. Also, India’s relatively low urbanization rate of 30-35% leaves plenty
of scope for increase in urbanization; hence, the housing segment should see
sustained growth.
Financial Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016 2017E 2018E
Sales
238.4 262.9 309.3
EBITDA
43.5
54.3
76.9
NP
21.7
29.6
45.4
Adj EPS (INR)
79.3 108.0 165.3
EPS Gr. (%)
7.9
36.2
53.1
BV/Sh (INR)
755.8 852.2 1,000.0
RoE (%)
11.0
13.4
17.9
RoCE (%)
9.3
11.5
15.2
Payout (%)
13.9
10.8
10.5
Valuations
P/E (x)
51.6
37.9
24.7
P/BV (x)
5.4
4.8
4.1
EV/EBITDA (x)
25.5
19.9
13.5
EV/Ton (USD)
247
241
230
Relative to Index
Abhishek Ghosh
(Abhishek.Ghosh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22
3982 5436
Aashumi Mehta
(Aashumi.Mehta@motilalOswal.com@MotilalOswal.com); +9122 30102397
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
September 2016
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
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