12 Annual Global Investor Conference
BSE Sensex
29,045
S&P CNX
8,953
th
Zensar Technologies
TP: INR1,300 (+29%)
Buy
Company update | Sector: Technology
CMP: INR1,005
Setting the stage right…
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
Financial Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Dec
2016
2017E
2018E
…With focused execution in Digital, Cloud and IMS
ZENT IN
44.6
1136/755
-11/0/14
45.7
0.7
71.0
52.1
37.2
6.2
4.4
98.0
27.3
448.0
23.9
29.5
20.8
10.3
2.2
6.0
2.0
Net Sales
EBITDA
PAT
EPS (INR)
Gr. (%)
BV / Sh (INR)
ROE (%)
ROCE (%)
Payout (%)
Valuations
P /E (x)
P / BV (x)
EV/EBITDA
Div. Yield (%)
29.6
4.3
3.1
68.2
17.0
314.4
24.0
28.5
17.6
14.8
3.2
10.2
1.2
32.2
4.8
3.5
77.0
12.3
373.8
22.3
27.1
21.3
13.1
2.7
8.3
1.6
ZENT has been taking several transformation measures post the recent investor and
leadership change. The key ingredients of its strategy are: [1] Focus on Digital, [2]
Attention towards 65 key accounts, and [3] Rejigging presence in Infrastructure
Management (IM) towards Services and Cloud.
While the first two are revenue drivers, the third leg of its strategy is a driver of
margins. Progress in these areas has been substantial, but simultaneous pruning of
low-yield accounts and trimming of the Product business is likely to limit revenue
growth at 5% in FY17.
The churn in the portfolio lays a better foundation for growth beyond FY17, driving
our estimate of 12% revenue growth in FY18. This should be seconded by margin
expansion from scaling up of newer areas and reconstitution of IM portfolio.
Favorable Digital skew…:
Digital constitutes 27% of ZENT’s revenue, amongst the
highest in the industry, facilitated by acquisition of Professional Access (PA). All
segments in Digital grew in the range of 21-37% YoY in FY16, and will continue with
similarly significant contribution to overall growth. PA is the third largest
implementer of Oracle Commerce globally. Its success with large retailers provides
ZENT with marquee clients that can be mined extensively.
…limiting pressure on Legacy:
On the 77% revenue from Application Services,
strong Digital presence and high proportion of Maintenance revenue have capped
the risk on portfolio from cloud shift of on-site implementation. Less than 20% of
the portfolio is likely to be at risk from cloud migration and smaller deal sizes. Also,
ZENT’s bet on the Oracle Cloud ecosystem has been paying off – Oracle’s strides in
SaaS and PaaS are reflected in its 65% YoY growth in these areas.
IM restructuring, a key margin lever:
The management’s three-pronged strategy for
the IM business is likely to lead to higher revenue from Services (60% v/s 40%
earlier), higher profitability in MVS and reduction of the Product portfolio (10% v/s
30% earlier). This will aid expansion of margins in the IM business from 5% in FY16
to ~10% in FY17 (~115bp improvement in overall EBITDA), providing headroom for
reinvestments in focus areas and also for booking some gains in the P&L.
Continued strategy execution offers re-rating potential:
We expect 5% revenue
growth in FY17 because of pruning of non-core areas. That said, execution progress
in focus areas lends confidence on gradual growth improvement (12% estimate for
FY18). Despite reinvestments, portfolio reconstitution and revenue growth revival
will potentially aid margin expansion of ~200bp over the next two years. Given
ZENT’s improved positioning and our expectation of consequent improvement in
financials, we see potential for growth acceleration and stock re-rating. Maintain
Buy,
with a price target of INR1,300, which discounts forward earnings by 13x.
Shareholding pattern (%)
As on
Promoter
Public
Others
Relative to Index
Jun-16 Mar-16 Dec-15
47.94
52.06
--
47.84
52.16
--
47.94
52.06
--
Sagar Lele
(Sagar.Lele@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1531
Ashish Chopra
(Ashish.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1530
September 2016
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
1
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.