8 September 2016
Update
| Sector:
Technology
TCS
BSE SENSEX
29,045
S&P CNX
8,953
CMP: INR2,321
TP: INR2,500 (+8%)
Neutral
Yet another company cites burgeoning growth concern
We cut FY17E/18E earnings by 2.6%/3.8% and USD revenue by 1%/1.7%
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, (INR m)
Free float (%)
TCS IN
1970.4
2,769/2,119
-16/-19/-23
4573.7
68.9
2,918
26.7
Weakness in BFSI discretionary spending in the US is likely to result in sequential
momentum loss.
Pull back in discretionary spending will hurt margins too, in our view.
We now expect constant currency (CC) revenue growth of 2.7% in 2QFY17 v/s
3.6% earlier, and cut our FY17E/18E USD revenues by 1%/1.7% and earnings by
2.6%/3.8%.
Loss of sequential momentum led by US BFSI
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
2016 2017E 2018E
Y/E Mar
Net Sales 1,086.5 1,220.6 1,397.2
306.8
329.6
376.2
EBITDA
242.1
257.1
290.3
Net Profit
123.2
130.5
147.3
EPS (INR)
11.2
6.0
12.9
EPS Gr.(%)
371.4
422.1
501.5
BV/Sh INR
18.8
17.4
15.4
P/E (x)
6.4
5.3
4.5
P/BV (x)
38.2
33.3
31.4
RoE (%)
36.8
32.3
30.5
RoCE (%)
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Jun-16 Mar-16 Jun-15
Promoter
73.3
73.4
73.9
DII
5.2
5.2
7.3
FII
17.0
16.8
14.4
Others
4.5
4.6
4.5
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
TCS
Sensex - Rebased
3,200
2,900
2,600
2,300
2,000
In its recent update, TCS characterized customer outlook as one marked by
abundant caution, with some holding back of discretionary spending –
particularly in the BFSI vertical in the US – leading to sequential loss of
momentum.
We believe the pull back in discretionary spending will weigh on margins
too, derailing the company at least for FY17, from its targeted margin band
of 26-28%. TCS started the year at 25.1%, and the loss of momentum in 2Q
will mean another quarter of soft margins, heading into the seasonally
weak 2H with furloughs and budgeting cycle.
Cutting earnings by 2.6%/3.8% for FY17E/18E
Following the outlook warning, we have revised our estimates downward. We
now expect CC revenue growth in 2Q of 2.7% QoQ (from earlier estimate of
3.6%) and USD revenue growth of 1.9% QoQ (80bp impact from cross
currency). As we were already treading cautiously on our margin estimates, our
EBIT margin estimates are only marginally revised to 25.4% for both 2QFY17
(down by 40bp) and FY17 (earlier 25.6%). Our earnings estimates for FY17/FY18
are consequently down 2.6%/3.8% to INR130.5b/INR147.3b.
Exposure to BFSI keeps us cautious
Our cautious thesis on TCS can be attributed to its slightly higher than peers
exposure to both BFSI and the UK. With headwinds from Diligenta and Latin
America behind, the uncertain environment in BFSI is taking a toll on growth
this year. Digital has contributed 52% of incremental revenues since 1QFY16,
and thus any pause/delay in discretionary spending is bound to hurt growth.
Following the adjustments, we now expect TCS to record USD revenue CAGR of
9.8% and EPS CAGR of 9.4% over FY16-18. Our revised target price of INR2,500
discounts FY18 EPS by 17x, and implies 8% upside. Maintain
Neutral.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Ashish Chopra
(Ashish.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1530
Sagar Lele
(Sagar.Lele@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1531