12 Annual Global Investor Conference
BSE Sensex
28,354
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8,716
th
Mahindra & Mahindra
TP: INR1,713 (+20%)
Buy
Company update | Sector: Automobiles
CMP: INR1,426
Product level initiatives to drive recovery in UVs
Several levers to improve margins
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INR m
Free float (%)
MM IN
592.6
1,509/1,092
-2/3/12
845.1
12.6
1,485
74.6
After gap of 4 years, both UVs & tractors to deliver double digit volume growth.
M&M is taking initiatives through product actions and increased marketing focus on
TUV/KUV to drive recovery in UV business.
Micro-hybrid opportunity to drive recovery in bigger SUVS and support margins.
Levers to off-set headwinds on margins; estimate ~100bp improvement by FY18.
Strong earnings traction in core (24% CAGR) + Potential reduction in losses of non-core
(Consol EPS CAGR 36%) + Attractive valuations (14.5x FY18 consol PE) = Buy.
Financial Snapshot (INR b)
2016 2017E 2018E
Y/E Mar
Sales
436.4 499.0 584.0
EBITDA
45.9 52.7 66.1
NP (incl. MVML)
32.9 39.1 50.6
Adj. EPS (INR) *
55.0 65.3 84.5
EPS Gr. (%)
4.2 18.6 29.4
Cons. EPS (INR)
53.6 73.2 98.7
BV/Sh. (INR)
366.3 410.3 468.6
RoE (%)
15.4 15.4 17.8
RoCE (%)
12.6 12.9 15.1
Cons. P/E (x)
26.6 19.5 14.5
P/BV (x)
3.9
3.5
3.0
Shareholding pattern (%)
As on
Promoter
DII
FII
Others
Jun-16 Mar-16 Jun-15
25.4
18.1
42.8
13.7
25.4
18.1
42.9
13.5
25.6
18.3
42.9
13.1
Tractors on recovery path, expect strong growth at ~18% CAGR over FY16-18
M&M’s tractor volumes are back on recovery path with ~18% growth in FY17YTD,
driven by normal monsoon and low base. It is also witnessing benefit of recent
launch of Yuvo tractors. M&M’s tractor volumes are expected to recovery sharply
with ~18% CAGR (FY16-18E). Increasing focus on farm equipment rental business
and the Government's target to double farm income in 5 years would act as catalyst
to drive penetration of implements (~2% of M&M’s FES revenues v/s global avg. of
~66%). M&M’s recent alliances in implement space would help it leverage on this
nascent opportunity.
UV business – initiatives to revive volumes underway
While M&M has addressed product gap issues with ~3 new launches in UV1
segment, these products are yet to witness sustainable traction in volumes. It has
taken several initiatives to drive recovery in UV business viz a) launch of 100HP
engine in TUV3OO, b) increased marketing of TUV3OO and KUV1OO, c) promoting
these two products in rural market as well, d) launch of micro-hybrid in Scorpio and
e) launch of ‘Bolero Power +’. Apart from these initiatives, M&M would benefit from
rural market recovery and revival in pick-up business. We estimate ~12.5% CAGR in
UV volumes for M&M over FY16-18E.
EBITDA margins – levers to improve margins
M&M’s 1QFY17 EBITDA margins largely reflected for worst of product mix (higher
KUV/TUV volumes) and impact of completion of Haridwar plant benefit. M&M has
several levers viz mix, lower MTBL losses, lower marketing spend, negative op.
leverage, to off-set impact of of exhaustion of Haridwar plant incentive and
commodity price inflation. Despite these headwinds, we expect EBITDA margins to
improve by 100 bp over FY16-18E to ~14.4%, translating into EBITDA growth of
~20% CAGR over FY16-18E.
Valuation attractive for ~24% S/A EPS CAGR
Worst is over for M&M not only in its core businesses of tractors and UVs, but also
in key subsidiaries. This would result in ~36% consol EPS CAGR over FY16-18E (v/s
~14% CAGR decline over FY14-16). With strong earnings cycle ahead in core
business and potential reduction in losses of non-core business, valuations at ~16.9x
FY18E S/A EPS, ~14.5x FY18E Consol EPS and ~6.3% FY18 FCF yield are very
attractive. Maintain
Buy,
with SOTP based TP of ~INR1,713 (16x FY18 Core EPS +
Subs at 20% HoldCo Discount).
Note: FII includes depository receipts
Relative to Index
Jinesh Gandhi
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5416
Venil Shah
(Venil.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5445
/Aditya Vora
(Aditya.Vora@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3078 4701
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.