13 September 2016
1QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Metals
Nalco
Buy
BSE SENSEX
28,354
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,716
NACL IN
2,577.2
107.2 / 1.6
51 / 30
-2/0/22
55
19.1
CMP: INR47
TP: INR67(+43%)
Higher aluminum cost drives 1Q miss
Nalco’s 1QFY17 EBITDA of INR1.9b (-18% QoQ/-13% YoY) was below est. of INR2.4b
on lower aluminum volumes and higher costs. PAT of INR1.3b (est. of INR1.8b) was
down 35% QoQ/17% YoY on higher depreciation due to accounting policy change.
Aluminum:
Cost of production (CoP, incl. depreciation) was up USD306/t QoQ
to USD1,898 (est. USD1,681) on higher power cost on coal cess and operating
leverage impact from lower volumes. Aluminum sales were down 21% QoQ to
82kt (est. 96kt), although production was down only 2% QoQ to 94kt, on re-
stocking. Aluminum realization of USD1,860/t (up USD120 QoQ) implies
~USD70/t QoQ increase in realized premiums on import duty benefit (raised by
5%).
Alumina:
CoP was down USD15/t QoQ to USD191 (est. USD201) despite lower
volumes. Alumina sales were down 22% QoQ to 291kt, although production
was down by only 6% QoQ to 524kt. Alumina realization was up USD18/t QoQ
to USD257 lower than est. of USD272 probably on lower contract sales.
Maintain Buy; Improved coal availability to drive better utilization
The negative surprise on aluminum cost in the quarter was primarily on
account of negative operating leverage from re-stocking led lower sales
volume. We largely maintain our estimates and TP. We estimate Nalco’s
aluminum production to increase from 372kt in FY16 to 441kt by FY18E as it
increases smelter utilization on improved domestic coal availability. With fixed
cost of more than USD600/t, higher volumes would deliver better cost
absorption. Its alumina business is in the 1
st
quartile of global cost curve and
would help tide through the current depressed alumina market. Cost of
production has tailwind of improving domestic coal quality and start of its
captive mines. Maintain Buy with TP of INR67.
INR million
FY16
2Q
3Q
4Q
94
96
96
94
97
104
315
285
375
1,593 1,495 1,517
300
261
224
308
263
239
18,151 16,353 18,744
-9.0 -14.2
4.1
3,393 1,363 2,387
-28.5 -74.1 -44.2
1,073 1,046 1,132
1,260 1,240 1,558
3,581 1,558 2,812
0
535
0
3,581 2,092 2,812
1,319
757
733
36.8
36.2
26.1
2,261 1,335 2,079
2,261
994 2,079
1Q
94
82
291
1,570
290
257
15,490
3.9
1,946
-13.0
1,188
1,336
2,089
0
2,089
739
35.4
1,350
1,350
FY17
2QE
3QE
4QE
101
103
105
101
103
105
299
322
359
1,615 1,620 1,630
210
210
210
275
273
272
18,159 18,882 19,872
0.0
15.5
6.0
3,472 3,695 3,940
2.3 171.0
65.1
1,194 1,200 1,206
577
632
689
2,855 3,127 3,423
0
0
0
2,855 3,127 3,423
932 1,021 1,117
32.6
32.6
32.6
1,923 2,106 2,306
1,923 2,106 2,306
FY16
372
372
1,195
1,593
283
299
68,160
-7.7
9,380
-45.0
4,241
5,366
10,493
535
11,028
3,718
33.7
7,310
6,956
FY17E
403
391
1,270
1,609
230
261
72,402
6.2
13,054
39.2
4,787
3,233
11,494
11,494
3,809
33.1
7,685
7,685
FY17 vs Est
1QE
(%)
96
-2
96
-14
248
18
1,570
0
210
38
272
-6
15,969
-3
7
2,451
-21
10
1,138
4
1,329
1
2,642
-21
0
2,642
-21
862
-14
33
1,779
-24
1,779
-24
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2016 2017E
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
68.2
72.4
EBITDA
9.4
13.1
NP
6.8
7.7
EPS (INR)
2.6
4.0
EPS Gr. (%)
-44.8 51.1
BV/Sh. (INR)
50.2
54.3
RoE (%)
5.3
7.6
RoCE (%)
7.5
9.0
Payout (%)
77.7
51.5
Div. Yield
4.2
4.2
2018E
81.1
18.3
10.7
5.5
38.9
57.7
9.9
13.3
37.1
4.2
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
1Q
Aluminium Prod. ('000 tons)
86
Aluminium Sales ('000 tons)
78
Alumina Sales ('000 tons)
220
Avg LME Aluminium (USD/ton) 1,769
NSR premiums (USD/ton)
349
Alumina NSR (USD/ton)
306
Net Sales
14,913
Change (YoY %)
-11.2
EBITDA
2,237
Change (YoY %)
-19.1
Depreciation
990
Other Income
1,308
PBT (before EO Item)
2,543
Extra-ordinary Income
0
PBT (after EO Item)
2,543
Total Tax
908
% Tax
35.7
Reported PAT
1,634
Adjusted PAT
1,634
Sanjay Jain
(SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1523
Dhruv Muchhal
(Dhruv.Muchhal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1549
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.