14 September 2016
1QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Utilities
Coal India
BSE SENSEX
28354
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8716
COAL IN
6316.4
2103/31.0
350/272
-3/-4/-12
1321.5
20.5
CMP: INR331
TP: INR350 (+6%)
Downgrade to Neutral
Grade mix impacting FSA realization; Cut est. by
8%
Uncertainties fueling volatility; Downgrade to Neutral
Coal India’s 1QFY17 EBITDA (ex-OBR) of INR38.6b (-24% YoY) was below estimate
of INR43.4b on lower FSA realization. Grade mix deterioration impacted the
realization. OBR provision continues under Ind-AS. PAT of INR30.6b (-19% YoY) was
ahead of estimate of INR29b on lower than estimated OBR provisions. Other
income was down 13% YoY to INR17.6b (in-line) due to lower cash and equivalents.
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2016 2017E 2018E
Y/E Mar
Sales
756.4 780.5 853.6
EBITDA
159.4 118.1 150.9
NP
142.7 110.7 133.6
EPS (INR)
22.6
17.5
21.2
EPS Gr. (%)
4.0 -22.5
20.7
BV/Sh. (INR)
53.6
55.4
57.5
RoE (%)
42.2
31.7
36.8
RoCE (%)
40.0
33.6
39.2
P/E (x)
14.7
19.0
15.7
P/BV (x)
6.2
6.0
5.8
Div. Yield (%)
8.2
3.9
4.8
Reducing estimates and TP to account for grade mix deterioration
We have cut power sector FSA realization estimates to account for grade mix
deterioration, now factoring ~4%/~1% increase v/s. ~7%/~1% earlier for
FY17E/18E, respectively.
Estimates for cash EBITDA is reduced by ~8% to INR155b/195b for FY17E/18E
respectively. TP is revised to INR350/sh. (@7.5x FY18E EV/EBITDA).
Continuously improving coal prices in the international market strengthen the
case for import substitution, but the volume growth has been elusive so far
perhaps because of falling specific consumption of coal in power plants and
growth in supply of alternative fuels e.g. gas, Nuclear, Renewables. Non-power
sector demand is likely to pick up, in our view.
Uncertainties regarding (1) Impact of deteriorating grade mix on realization (2)
exact quantum of wage hike pending negotiation and (3) volume growth are
fueling volatility to earnings. Although we remain positive on long term
prospect, the near term uncertainties are likely to de-rate the stock. Further,
there is limited upside to the target price. We downgrade the stock to
Neutral.
INR million
4Q
207,595
-0.1
62,100
29.9
6,946
13,195
121
21,393
56
63,287
20,807
32.9
42,479
42,424
0.4
1Q
177,961
-6.1
38,621
21.7
6,672
2,331
890
17,564
0
46,293
15,641
33.8
30,653
30,653
-19.1
FY17
2QE
3QE
182,911 205,169
7.9
8.1
23,291 47,814
12.7
23.3
6,672 6,672
604 10,935
40
40
17,389 18,897
0
0
33,364 49,064
11,010 16,191
33.0
33.0
22,354 32,873
22,354 32,873
-11.3
-10.8
FY16
4QE
214,448
3.3
45,338
21.1
5,850
27,570
-905
19,189
0
32,012
11,652
36.4
20,360
20,360
-52.0
756,443
5.0
187,519
24.8
24,664
28,114
207
80,943
415
215,891
73,148
33.9
142,743
142,329
3.7
FY17E
780,488
3.2
155,063
19.9
25,864
41,440
65
73,039
0
160,733
54,494
33.9
106,239
106,239
-25.4
FY17
Var.
1QE
(%)
183,425
(3)
-3.2
43,440 (11)
23.7
6,946
(4)
10,453
(78)
40
2,124
17,635
(0)
0
43,636
6
14,400
9
33.0
29,236
5
29,236
5
-22.8
Multiple uncertainties fueling volatility to earnings; downgrade to Neutral
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Quarterly Performance (Consolidated)
Y/E March
Sales
Change (%)
Cash EBITDA (OBR adj.)
As of % Sales
Depreciation
OBR
Interest
Other Income
EO Income/(Expense)
PBT
Tax
Effective Tax Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
1Q
189,558
6.5
50,911
26.9
5,575
7,091
40
20,095
-226
58,072
20,429
35.0
37,643
37,869
-5.7
FY16
2Q
3Q
169,576 189,715
8.2
6.8
25,171 49,337
14.8
26.0
5,864
6,279
410
7,419
15
30
19,636 19,819
248
337
38,766 55,766
13,328 18,584
34.6
33.5
25,438 37,182
25,190 36,845
15.2
12.4
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Sanjay Jain
(SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1523
Dhruv Muchhal
(Dhruv.Muchhal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1549