Update | Sector: Metals
12 Annual Global Investor Conference
BSE Sensex
28,413
S&P CNX
8,743
th
Vedanta
Neutral
CMP: INR163
TP: INR160 (-2%)
Mr Tom Albanese
CEO
Vedanta
CEO TRACK
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
Portfolio of low cost diversified natural resources
VEDL IN
3717.0
606/ 8.9
181/58
-1/66/60
1860
37.1
Takeaways from CEO track; introducing merged entity estimates
We hosted Mr Tom Albanese, CEO of Vedanta (VEDL) at our 12 AGIC in Mumbai.
Cairn India’s (CAIR) minority shareholders have approved the merger, recently.
In this note, we introduce VEDL’s estimates on merged entity basis along with the
highlights of Mr Albanese’s presentation.
th
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016 2017E 2018E
Sales
644.3 717.1 804.3
EBITDA *
123.9 164.1 183.0
NP
31.9
61.3
75.9
Adj. EPS (INR)
10.8
16.5
20.4
EPS Gr(%)
-37.3 -17.8
89.6
BV/Sh. (INR)
131.7 102.6 112.6
RoE (%)
8.5
14.1
19.0
RoCE (%)
7.6
11.0
12.1
Payout (%)
48.9
31.9
25.8
Valuation
P/E (x)
15.4
10.0
8.1
P/BV
1.1
1.4
1.3
EV/EBITDA (x)*
7.0
6.6
5.7
Div. Yield (%)
2.7
2.7
2.7
*Attrib.
Relative to Index
The dollar’s strength, low interest rates, and a stabilizing China driving
commodity prices
Investor sentiment on Commodities has turned positive in the last few months, as
China is showing signs of stability.
Zinc: Driven by fundamentals
Zinc has been in deficit over 2012-15 on closure of large mines (Brunswick,
Perseverance, Century, Lisheen), which helped run down inventories in the system.
Investment in opening of new zinc mines has been low. Large commodity producers
like BHP, Rio and Anglo have stayed away from investing in zinc mines. The zinc
market is expected to remain in deficit in 2016 and 2017 as well, on expected
closure of Pomorzany and Bracemac Mecleod. Gencore’s 500ktpa production cut
and reduced production at Rampur Agucha has tightened the market. Prices have
increased 40% since the beginning of February 2016, driven by supply fundamentals.
Hindustan Zinc – well positioned to capitalize on strong fundamentals:
Hindustan Zinc (HZ) is one of the best zinc assets in the world. Its mines are rich in
zinc and cost of production (CoP) lies in the first decile of the cost curve. Production
is expected to be marginally higher in FY17, which implies strong ramp up in
2HFY17. HZ is well positioned to reap the benefit of strong fundamentals.
Zinc-Int’s low cost production from 250ktpa project expected in FY19:
Cost
of production for Zinc-International (Zinc-Int) lies in the 2nd quartile and is
sustainable. Zinc-Int is developing a low cost (1st quartile of global cost curve)
Gamsberg project at a capex of USD400m. First ore is expected to be produced in
2018. Full 250kt production is expected in FY20 at estimated cost of production of
USD1,000-1,150/ton.
Sanjay Jain
(SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5412
Dhruv Muchhal
(Dhruv.Muchhal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3027 8033
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
1
September 2016
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.