Sector Update| 01 February 2017
rrrrrrr
CMP: INR6,173
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
MSIL IN
302.1
1,865/27.4
6195 / 3202
10/25/43
Automobiles
TP: INR6,808 (Upside 10%)
Buy
Automobiles | Update
Sales up 27% YoY to 144.4k units (v/s est. 133.5k)
Domestic recovery back on track post demonetization; Exports lend support
MSIL’s Jan-17 wholesales were above est. at ~144,396 units (v/s est. 133,500, units),
27% YoY growth (+23% MoM). Our FY17 estimates indicate a 10% growth implying a
10% residual growth rate or ~135.9k/month of run rate.
Domestic volumes were up by 26% YoY (+26% MoM) to 133.9k (v/s est 122.5k)
indicating a sharp recovery post demonetization. Almost all segments showed robust
growth.
Mini segment which was under pressure post demonetization recovered with a 11%
YoY growth. This was post successive months of subdued growth.
The compact segment which accounts for ~40% of total domestic volumes increased
by 25% YoY. We expect growth in compact segment to be driven by Baleno (waiting
period of 24 weeks) along with incremental volumes of newly launches Ignis (8-10
weeks)
Dzire Tour declined by 15% YoY to 3001 units (v/s 2559 units in Dec-16).
Mid-size segment was driven by Ciaz with a 20% YoY growth. Ciaz clocked in 6530
units.
UV volumes doubled to ~16k units in Jan-17, primarily aided by incremental volumes
of Vitarra Brezza, which enjoys a waiting period of 18 weeks.
Domestic growth of 26% YoY for MSIL for Jan-17 was broad based with all segments
growing. Recovery in entry level car segment was also seen post demonetization
hiccup.
Export volumes surprised with a ~45% YoY growth to 10,462 units (v/s est 11,000
units)
The stock trades at 19.7x/16.3x FY18E/19E consolidated EPS of ~INR313/379. Maintain
Buy.
Snapshot of volumes for Jan-17
Jan-17
Jan-16
YoY
(%)
27.1
25.9
0.0
34.9
21.6
6.8
NA
101.0
44.8
Dec-16
117,908
106,414
26
9,224
63,822
17,270
0
16,072
11,494
MoM (%)
22.5
25.9
NA
53.7
23.4
42.0
NA
1.5
-9.0
FY17-YTD
FY16-YTD
Chg
(%)
FY17
estimate
YoY
(%)
Resi-dual Gr.
(%)
10.2
9.8
Residual
Monthly
Run rate
135,924
124,605
Total volume
144,396 113,606
Domestic
133,934 106,383
LCVs
166
0
C (Vans)
14,179 10,512
A2 (Compacts)
78,745 64,781
A3 (Sedan)
24,531 22,976
A4
0
0
UV (Ertiga, S-Cross) 16,313
8,114
Export
10,462
7,223
1,298,560 1,182,452 9.8 1,570,408 9.9
1,195,807 1,078,341 10.9 1,445,018 10.7
460
0
NA
126,186
118,093
6.9
690,895
648,249
6.6
218,699
239,961
-8.9
0
0
NA
159,567
72,038 121.5
102,753
104,111
-1.3 125,390
1.2
14.7
11,319
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Jinesh Gandhi
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5416
Aditya Vora
(Aditya.Vora@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3078 4701
3 November 2014
1
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Automobiles |
Automobiles | Update
CMP: INR1,297
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
MM IN
592.6
768.6/11.3
1509 / 1092
4/-11/-8
TP: INR1,499 (+16%)
Buy
Volumes down 6% YoY to 55,212 units (est. of ~58,850)
Tractor growth moderates to 6% YoY, while UVs decline 9% on
demonetization impact
Jan-17 volumes declined 6% YoY to ~55,212 units (v/s est 58,850 units), as fall in UVs
(inc pick up) more than offset growth in tractor volumes. Our FY17 estimates indicate
a 7% growth implying an 2% residual decline or ~61.7k/month of run rate.
Tractor sales were below estimates at 15,909 units (v/s est 17,000 units), registering a
6% YoY growth (+13% MoM) on the back of good rabi sowing coupled with increase in
MSP’s. Domestic tractor sales were at 14,776 units (+3% YoY), while exports at 1133
units grew by 71% YoY.
Commenting on the monthly performance, Rajesh Jejurikar, President & Chief
Executive, Farm Equipment and Two Wheeler Division, Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd.
said, "We have sold 15,909 tractors during January 2017 with a growth of 6% over last
year. We expect the positive environmental factors in terms of higher rabi sowing and
better MSPs will drive the demand in coming months. We sold 14,776 tractors and
1,133 tractors in the domestic and exports markets respectively. ”
UV (incl pick-ups) declined by ~9% YoY to 35,094 units (v/s est ~36.5k).
Pick-ups declined by 4% YoY while passenger utility vehicles declined by 9% YoY
impacted by demonetization.
LCV grew by 12% YoY while MHCV sales grew marginally by 1% YoY. Decline in MHCV
could be due to postponement of demand as liquidity crunch affected fleet operators.
3W sales continued to decline with a 28% YoY fall to 3,056 units (v/s est ~4250 units).
3Ws were the worst hit in the automobile pack due to the demonetization impact.
Speaking on the monthly performance, Pravin Shah, Chief Executive, Automotive
Division, M&M. said, "The auto industry continues to see mixed reactions and some of
the segments including the rural market and commercial vehicles category continue to
face challenging times. Going forward we expect the announcement made at the
National Budget today will positively impact the economy and also the industry,
especially in view of the emphasis and allocation made for rural, agri and
infrastructure. We are confident this will lead to spur in demand.”
The stock trades at 18.8x/16.2x FY18E/19E consolidated EPS. Maintain Buy
Snapshot of volumes for Jan-17
Jan-17
Total volume
55,212
UV (incl. pick-ups) 35,094
LCV
1,153
Three-Wheelers
3,056
Tractors
15,909
Jan-16
58,854
38,481
1,088
4,220
15,065
YoY (%)
-6.2
-8.8
6.0
-27.6
5.6
Dec-16
50,410
31,898
1,007
3,458
14,047
MoM (%)
9.5
10.0
14.5
-11.6
13.3
FY17-YTD
635,177
352,231
10,480
43,818
228,648
FY16-YTD
581,869
340,493
9,476
46,565
185,335
Chg
(%)
9.2
3.4
10.6
-5.9
23.4
FY17
estimate
758,507
432,901
12,737
54,425
258,445
YoY Resi-dual Gr.
(%)
(%)
7.2
2.0
5.0
-1.0
21.0
-2.0
-3.9
-15.0
26.1
5.5
Residual
Monthly
Run rate
61,665
40,335
1,128
5,304
14,899
01 February 2017
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Automobiles |
CMP: INR92
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
AL IN
2,845.9
262/3.8
113/74
9/5/-12
TP: INR114 (24% upside)
Buy
Above est. with 7% YoY growth to ~14.9k
MHCV’s grow 8% YoY, while LCVs rise 5% YoY
Jan-17 volumes increased by 7.1% YoY (+39% MoM) to 14,872 units (v/s est. 12,950) as
both MHCVs and LCVs volumes recovered post demonetization impact.
M&HCV volumes which account for 81% of the total volumes increased by 7.6% YoY
(+37% MoM) to 12,056 units (v/s est 10,750 units).
LCVs (Dost & Stile) at 2,816 units (v/s est 2,200 units) too bounced back , with a 5%
YoY growth (+44% MoM)
Our FY17 estimates indicate a 4.4% growth implying a 14% residual growth or
~17.1k/month of run rate.
The stock trades at 14.4x/11.2x FY18E/FY19E EPS and at ~8.7/6.8x EV/EBITDA.
Maintain Buy.
Snapshot of volumes for Jan-17
Jan-17
Total volume
CV (ex LCV)
LCV (Nissan JV)
14,872
12,056
2,816
Jan-16
13,886
11,208
2,678
YoY (%)
7.1
7.6
5.2
Dec-16
10,731
8,782
1,949
MoM (%)
38.6
37.3
44.5
FY17-YTD
112,319
86,711
25,608
FY16-YTD
4.4
5.0
2.1
Chg
(%)
1.8
1.2
4.0
FY17
estimate
146,600
115,250
31,350
Residual
YoY Resi-dual Gr.
Monthly
(%)
(%)
Run rate
4.4
5.0
2.1
13.8
18.7
-5.4
17,140
14,270
2,871
01 February 2017
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Automobiles |
CMP: INR24,008
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
EIM IN
27.2
652.1/9.7
4/11/27
TP: INR29,172 (Upside +22%)
Buy
RE in line (+25% YoY), while VECV(+20%YoY) below est
RE growth moderates to 25%; while VECV recovers post demonetization
52-Week Range (INR) 26602 / 16607
RE volumes grew ~25% YoY (+4% MoM) to 59,676 units (v/s est. ~57,500 units).Our
FY17 estimates indicate a 31% growth implying a 19% residual growth or 54.8k
units/month.
VECV's overall volume increased by 20% YoY to 4,449 units (v/s est 4,826 units).
Growth was primarily driven by buses and HD trucks .Our FY17 estimate indicates 16%
growth implying a 20% residual growth or 6.9k units/month.
Domestic sales were at 3,796 units (v/s est. ~4,125 units) growth of 11% (+17% MoM).
LMD volumes which accounted for 56% of domestic volumes registered a modest
growth of 4% YoY (+18% YoY) to 2,112 units (v/s est. 2,450 units).
HD volumes grew by 15% YoY (+3% MoM) to 816 units (v/s est 900 units). While bus
volumes registered a sharp growth of 28% YoY to 868 units (v/s est 775 units).
VECV exports shot up by 124% to 653 units (v/s est 701 units) on a lower base of Jan-
16.
The stock trades at 27.6x/22.3x FY18E/FY19E EPS respectively. Maintain Buy.
Snapshot of volumes for Jan-17
Jan-17
Royal Enfield
VECV
Domestic LMD
Domestic HD
Domestic Buses
Total Domestic
Exports
59,676
4,449
2,112
816
868
3,796
653
Jan-16
47,710
3,707
2,028
707
680
3,415
292
YoY
(%)
25.1
20.0
4.1
15.4
27.6
11.2
123.6
Dec-16
57,398
3,946
1,792
792
662
3,246
700
MoM (%)
4.0
12.7
17.9
3.0
31.1
16.9
-6.7
FY17YTD
547,938
44,974
20,519
8,282
9,367
38,168
6,806
FY16YTD
407,678
39,214
19,474
6,570
8,019
34,063
5,151
Chg
(%)
34.4
14.7
5.4
26.1
16.8
12.1
32.1
FY17
estimate
667,938
58,893
26,319
11,132
12,267
50,522
8,371
YoY Resi-dual Gr.
(%)
(%)
31.4
16.0
6.5
23.3
16.5
14.1
28.5
19.4
20.3
10.7
16.0
15.5
21.0
15.0
Residual
Monthly
Run rate
60,000
6,960
2,900
1,425
1,450
6,177
783
01 February 2017
4
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Automobiles |
CMP: INR514
YoY
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
TTMT IN
3395.9
599/266
9/7/47
M.Cap.(INR b) / (USDb) 1654.7/24.3
TP: INR706 (Upside 39%)
Buy
Below est. at 46,349 units (v/s est. 49k units), decline of 1%
PVs grew 21% YoY led by Tiago; Domestic CVs decline on the back of
demonetization
Tata Motors Jan-17 sales volumes declined by 1% YoY (+15% MoM) to 46,349 units
(v/s est 49,000 units) as decline in CVs more than offset growth in PV business. Our
FY17 estimates indicate a 10% growth implying a 26% residual growth or 63k
units/month of run rate.
There were some green shots in the form of growth in construction vehicles (+26%
YoY) and the bus segment (+12% YoY), driven by demand from Government/STU,
Intercity. Overall M&HCV sales (incl exports) declined ~2% YoY to 16,099 units (v/s est
16,000 units)
LCV sales (incl exports) continued to decline with a 12% YoY drop to 17,072 units (est
~19,000 units).
Total CV volumes declined by 8 % YoY (+13% MoM), reflecting the implications of
demonetization.
Car sales (incl exports) grew by 12% YoY (+10% MoM) to 10,800 units (v/s est 11,500
units). Tata’s Tiago has a waiting period of ~1-1.5 months.
UV sales (incl exports) were at 2378 units (est. 2,500 units).
The stock trades at 11.9x/6.5x FY18E/19E consol. EPS respectively. Maintain Buy.
Snapshot of volumes for Jan-17
Jan-17
Total volume
HCV's
LCV's
CV's
Cars
UV's
46,349
16,099
17,072
33,171
10,800
2,378
Jan-16
47,035
16,454
19,499
35,953
9,622
1,460
YoY (%)
-1.5
-2.2
-12.4
-7.7
12.2
62.9
Dec-16
40,377
13,863
15,375
29,238
9,829
1,310
MoM (%)
14.8
16.1
11.0
13.5
9.9
81.5
FY17-YTD
437,037
137,374
170,547
307,921
113,791
15,325
FY16-YTD
411,970
138,865
162,923
301,788
94,267
15,915
Chg
(%)
6.1
-1.1
4.7
2.0
20.7
-3.7
FY17
estimate
562,973
181,516
216,487
398,003
141,183
23,786
YoY Resi-dual Gr.
(%)
(%)
10.0
2.9
5.7
4.4
27.1
22.6
26.3
17.3
9.9
13.4
63.0
142.4
Residual
Monthly
Run rate
62,968
22,071
22,970
45,041
13,696
4,231
01 February 2017
5
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
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Automobiles |
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Office Address : 21 (Suite 31),16 Collyer Quay,Singapore 04931
For Singapore
Motilal Oswal Tower, Level 9, Sayani Road, Prabhadevi, Mumbai 400 025
Phone: +91 22 3982 5500 E-mail: reports@motilaloswal.com
Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd
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