Sector Update | 21 March 2017
Aviation
Aviation
Domestic passenger growth
(YoY %)
Feb-16 domestic air passenger growth at ~20% YoY
Domestic load factor at 87.2%; IndiGo’s domestic ASK/RPK share highest
25.3
23.3 22.6 23.4
19.9
Domestic air passengers in India grew ~20% YoY (adj.) in Feb-17 (v/s +25.3% in Jan-17;
+23.1% in 3QFY17). However, we believe this strong growth would be at the cost of
yields, as seen in headline fares.
While Feb-17 ASK growth stood at 17.8% YoY (adj.) (v/s +21.1% in 3QFY17 and +19% in
2QFY17), RPKs increased 21% YoY (adj.) (v/s +22.8% in 3QFY17 and +24.5% in 2QFY17).
Load factor stood at 87.2% in Feb-17 (v/s 84.8% in 3QFY17 and 83% in 2QFY17).
*adj.:
With 2016 being a leap year, we adjust pax/ASK/RPK numbers to calculate YoY change for Feb-17.
Domestic air passenger growth at ~20% YoY in Feb-17
88.7
87.2
82.5
82.2
81.1
84.5
Industry load factor (%)
88.3
India’s domestic air passengers grew ~20% YoY (adj.) in Feb-17. Domestic
passenger growth remained ~20% and above for the 16
th
straight month.
IndiGo’s passenger growth stood at +28.6% YoY (adj.) in Feb-17 (v/s +43% in
3QFY17 and +39% in 2QFY17).
SpiceJet’s domestic passenger volumes grew +20% YoY (adj.) in Feb-17 (v/s
+22% in 3QFY17).
Go Air’s domestic passenger volumes grew +30.4% YoY (adj.) in Feb-17 (v/s
+19% in 3QFY17).
Passenger volume growth (adj.) YoY for other airlines was as follows: Jet Airway:
+3.6% YoY (v/s +1.3% in 3QFY17); Air India: +4.9% (v/s +2% in 3QFY17).
IndiGo’s passenger market share stood at ~40% in Feb-17 (v/s +41.8% in 3QFY17
and +40% in 2QFY17).
Jet Airways’ market share remained below 20% for the eleventh consecutive
month at 18.3%. It had market share of above 20% since Jul-14.
Air India’s market share stood at 13.3% (v/s 13.1% in 3QFY17).
SpiceJet’s market share stood at 13.3% (v/s 12.8% in 3QFY17).
GoAir’s market share stood at 8.7% in Feb-17; it seems to have stabilized in the
8-9% range.
IndiGo’s domestic ASKs increased +23.5% YoY (adj.) (v/s +34% in 3QFY17); its
domestic ASK share stood at the highest at 41.5%.
SpiceJet’s domestic ASKs grew +23.4% YoY (adj.) (v/s +19.8% in 3QFY17).
Domestic ASKs of GoAir grew +20.3% YoY (adj.) (v/s +13.5% in 3QFY17) and
those of Jet grew +3% YoY (adj.) (v/s +3% in 3QFY17).
IndiGo’s RPKs grew +25.9% YoY (adj.) (v/s +38.9% in 3QFY17), with the highest
market share of 41.7% in Feb-17.
SpiceJet’s domestic RPKs grew +25.2% (adj.) YoY (v/s +21.2% in 3QFY17), with a
market share of 12.6% in Feb-17.
GoAir’s domestic RPKs grew +26.7% YoY (adj.) (v/s +18.7% in 3QFY17), with a
market share of 8.3% in Feb-17.
Jet’s RPK growth stood at +8% YoY (adj.), followed by Air India at +5.9% YoY
(adj.).
IndiGo’s passenger market share remains highest at ~40% in Feb-17
Passenger market share (%)
Jan-17
IndiGo
Jet
AI
SpiceJet
GoAir
Others
18.0
18.3
13.9
13.3
12.9
13.1
8.3
8.7
7.1
7.0
Feb-17
39.9
39.7
Domestic ASKs increase +17.8% YoY (adj.) in Feb-17 (v/s +21.1% in 3QFY17)
Domestic RPKs rise +21% YoY (adj.) in Feb-17 (v/s +22.8% in 3QFY17)
Swarnendu Bhushan
(Swarnendu.Bhushan@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1529
Abhinil Dahiwale
(Abhinil.Dahiwale@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3980 4309
21 March 2017
1
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Aviation
Industry load factors
stood at 87.2% (v/s 84.8% in 3QFY17)
SpiceJet’s load factor stood at 93.6% in Feb-17 (v/s 92.7% in 3QFY17); had 90%+
load factor for last 22 months.
IndiGo’s load factor stood at 87.7% (v/s 88.1% in 3QFY17).
GoAir’s load factor stood at 90.9% (v/s 87.5% in 3QFY17).
Jet reported load factor at 86.6% (v/s 80.2% in 3QFY17).
Air India reported load factor at 79.6% (v/s 75.9% in 3QFY17).
Exhibit 1:
Domestic passengers grew ~20% YoY adj. in Feb-17
Total Domestic Passengers (millions)
Feb-17 was 16 consecutive
month of above ~20%
growth
th
Source: DGCA, MOSL
Exhibit 2:
Double-digit passenger growth since Aug-14
Domestic passenger growth (YoY %)
Domestic passenger volumes
grew ~20% YoY in Feb-17
Source: DGCA, MOSL
Exhibit 3:
Airline-wise passenger growth (YoY %)
Passenger growth YoY (%)
80
Total
Air India
IndiGo
SpiceJet
Jet Airways
GoAir
Passenger volumes up
+28.6% YoY for IndiGo in
Feb-17.
40
0
-40
Source: DGCA, MOSL
21 March 2017
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Aviation
Exhibit 4:
Airline-wise domestic passenger break-up (in millions) - Total domestic pax volumes stood at 8.6m in Feb-17
Domestic Passengers
IndiGo
Jet Airways
Air India
SpiceJet
GoAir
8.6
Others
Total
9.5 9.5
8.6
8.9
8.5 8.3 8.2 8.6
7.9
0.7 0.7
0.7
0.7 1.0 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.1
1.1 1.0
1.0
1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1
1.3
1.5 1.5
1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5
5.2
0.5
1.0
0.9
1.2
1.7
5.9 5.6
5.2
0.6 0.6
1.1 1.1 0.5
1.0 1.0 1.1
0.9
1.3 1.1 1.0
1.9 1.8 1.6
5.7 5.8 5.9 5.8
0.6
1.1
0.9
1.1
0.5
1.1
0.9
1.2
0.5
1.0
1.1
1.2
0.5
0.9
1.0
1.4
3.3 3.0 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.4
2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.1
1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0
6.4 6.2 6.0
0.6 0.6 0.5
0.7 0.6 0.6
1.2 1.1 1.0
1.5 1.5 1.5
6.3 6.5
0.6
0.6
1.0
1.6
7.1
6.6 6.7 6.7
0.6
0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5
0.7
0.8 0.8 0.8
1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1
1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5
7.7 7.6 7.4 7.8 7.9
7.0 7.3
6.6
0.7
0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.1
0.6 0.6
0.6 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.3
0.8
1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2
1.0 1.1 1.2
1.6 1.5 1.6
1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
1.5
0.8 0.8
1.2 1.2 0.7
1.1
1.3 1.3
1.1
1.7 1.7
1.6
Exhibit 5:
Airline-wise domestic passenger market share (in %) - IndiGo remains market leader with ~40% share in Feb-17
Domestic market share (%)
1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2
10 10 10 9 10 9 9 9
18 18 19 21 20 19 17 15
17 18 17 18 16 16 19 17
22 21 20 20 20 21 21 23
IndiGo
2
9
10
18
3
9
9
18
3
9
9
17
3
9
10
16
3
9
11
16
Jet Airways
4
9
12
16
4
9
12
15
5
8
12
16
5
8
12
16
5
9
12
16
Air India
5
8
13
15
5
8
13
16
6
8
13
16
6
8
13
16
SpiceJet
6
8
13
15
6
8
13
14
6
9
13
15
6
8
13
15
GoAir
5
8
13
16
6
8
12
15
6
8
13
14
6
8
13
14
Others
7
8
13
13
7
8
13
13
7
8
13
14
7
8
13
14
7
9
13
13
23 24 24 25 23 21 21 23 23 22 21 21 21 21 21 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 17 17 18 18 18
43 42 40 40 40
32 32 32 31 33 33 32 34 36 37 37 37 38 39 39 36 35 37 37 36 36 36 37 39 39 39 38 40 40 40
Exhibit 6:
Monthly domestic ASKs (billions) - Domestic ASKs increased +17.8% YoY (adj.) in Feb-17
10.1 10.4
10.1 10.2
9.6 9.5 9.3
9.4
9.0 9.0 9.5 9.3
8.3 8.4 8.4 8.6 8.3
8.0 7.9
7.4 7.4 7.8 7.6 7.9
0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
6.8 7.2 7.0 7.1 7.1 6.9 7.2 6.8 6.9 7.1 6.5
0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2
0.8
1.1
0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6
1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0
0.7
0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6
0.8
0.7
0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.3
0.7
0.6 0.7
1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3
1.3 1.2
1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.6
1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3
1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7
1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3
3.6 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 3.9
2.4 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.6 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3
Domestic ASK (b)
IndiGo
Jet Airways
Air India
SpiceJet
GoAir
Others
Total Domestic ASK
Exhibit 7:
Monthly market share by domestic ASKs (%) - IndiGo’s ASK market share stood at 41.5%
Domestic ASK market share
0
0
0
9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9
18 18 18 19 18 18 17 14 11 9 9 9
19 19 18 18
19 19 18 18 18 18 18 18
20 20 21 20
19 19 19 18 18 18 19 19
IndiGo
4
9
9
17
4
9
10
17
5
9
10
17
Jet Airways
5
8
10
17
6
8
10
17
6
9
10
16
6
8
10
16
6
8
12
16
Air India
6
8
11
16
6
8
11
16
6
8
11
16
6
8
11
15
SpiceJet
6
8
11
15
7
8
11
15
7
8
10
15
7
8
10
15
GoAir
7
8
10
15
7
8
10
15
8
8
10
14
Others
8
8
11
14
7
8
11
15
8
8
12
15
7
8
12
14
21 21 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 19 18 18 18 18 17 17 17 17 17
35 35 35 36 36 37 37 38 40 39 40 41 40 40 39 40 39 40 39 38 38 39 40 40 41 41 42 43 42 43 43 43 42 41 41
Source: DGCA, MOSL
21 March 2017
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Aviation
Exhibit 8:
Monthly domestic RPKs (billions) – adj. YoY growth for IndiGo stood at +26%, SpiceJet (+25%) and GoAir (+27%)
Others
Total
9.1 9.2
8.2
8.2
8.0 7.8 7.7 8.2 8.5
7.6
7.3 7.3 7.0 7.5 7.5
7.0
6.8
0.7 0.7
6.3 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.7
6.0 5.9 5.7 5.9 6.2
0.7
0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.7
5.7 5.4
5.5 5.6 5.5
5.1
1.0 1.0
1.0
4.9 5.3
0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.9 0.9
0.6
0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.2 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.1
0.6 0.5
0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8
1.1
1.1
1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1
0.5 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.5 1.1 1.0 0.8
0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1
1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0
1.5 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4
0.9 1.0
1.0 1.1
1.4 1.3
1.0
0.9 0.9 1.1 1.0
0.9
1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3
0.9
0.8
3.1 3.1 3.4 3.1 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.4
1.8 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8
Domestic RPK (b)
IndiGo
Jet Airways
Air India
SpiceJet
GoAir
Exhibit 9:
Monthly domestic RPK market share (%) - IndiGo had the highest RPK market share of +41.7% in Feb-17
Domestic RPK market share (%)
0
0
10 10 10 9 10 9 9 9 10
18 18 19 21 20 19 18 15 10
19
18 18 18 18 17 17 19 18
20
19 18 17 17 17 18 18 20
IndiGo
3
9 9 9 9
9 9 9 10
19 18 17 16
4
9
11
16
Jet Airways
5
9
11
15
5
8
11
16
5
8
11
17
5
9
11
16
5
8
12
15
Air India
5
8
13
16
6
8
12
16
6
8
12
15
6
8
12
15
SpiceJet
6
8
12
14
6
9
12
14
6
8
11
15
7
8
12
15
GoAir
7
8
11
14
6
8
12
14
6
8
12
14
Others
7
8
12
12
16
7
8
12
13
7
8
12
13
7
8
13
13
7
8
12
12
21 21 22 21 20 19 21 21 20 19 19 19 20 19 18 18 18 18 18 18 17 16
17 17 17
36 36 36 34 36 36 36 38 41 40 41 40 41 42 41 39 38 40 40 39 39 39 40 41 42 41 41 42 42 42 45 45 43 42 42
Source: DGCA, MOSL
Exhibit 10:
Monthly domestic load factor (%)
Overall industry load factor
stood at 87.2% in Feb-17
IndiGo’s load factor stood
at 87.7% in Feb-17; SpiceJet
maintained +90%
load factor for the 22
straight months.
95
90
85
80
75
70
IndiGo
Jet Airways
Air India
SpiceJet
GoAir
Linear (IndiGo)
Source: DGCA, MOSL
21 March 2017
4
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Aviation
Key terms used throughout the report
ASK: Available Seat Kilometer - The Basic Measure of Capacity:
One seat (empty or
filled) flying one kilometer is an ASK. A 180-seat A320 flying 100 kilometers creates
18,000 ASKs.
RPK: Revenue Passenger Kilometer - The Basic Measure of Revenue:
A paying
passenger flying one kilometer creates an RPK. 150 passengers flying 100 kilometers
generate 15,000 RPKs.
Load Factor: Production Compared to Capacity:
To calculate the load factor, divide
RPKs by ASKs. An individual flight generating 15,000 RPKs and 18,000 ASKs will have
a load factor of 83%. Higher load factors are desirable but how much each
passenger pays is also important.
21 March 2017
5
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
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Aviation
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21 March 2017
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