Automobiles
July-17 Sales Estimates
Industry witnesses inventory build-up to meet festive demand
PV and 2W sales to see healthy growth in dispatches
Sector Update | 31
| Update
Automobiles
July 2017
” Retail sales have dropped
this month as there was an
advancement in purchases,
driven by market offers
announced in June.
Wholesale dispatches last
month, on the other hand,
were postponed to prevent
inventory devaluation to
the extent of around 5 per
cent. In July, the focus is
more on wholesale as
stocks were low across
dealerships.”
- RS Kalsi, executive director
(sales and marketing),
Maruti Suzuki India
2W and PV wholesales volume is expected to be healthy, led by inventory build-up to meet
festive demand and gradually improving retails post GST implementation. Growth in the
CV segment will be largely led by LCVs.
Our interaction with mass market 2W channel partners points toward a gradual recovery
in retails from the second half of July. Factors such as good monsoon and increase in MSPs
have lifted sentiment in rural/semi-urban areas. Pre-festive demand is evident in states
like Maharashtra and Gujarat.
Key highlights:
n
MSIL’s domestic dispatches growth is expected to come in at 11% YoY. Demand for
Baleno, Brezza and New Dzire continues to remain robust as these models enjoy a
healthy waiting period of 3-4 months. Within the domestic portfolio, CIAZ sales are
expected to be weak due to GST impact on hybrid cars (forms ~60% of CIAZ sales).
n
Tata Motors’ PV segment is expected to decline 5% YoY, while the CV segment is likely
to continue its downtrend with a decline of 3% YoY, led by a 12% fall in HCVs.
n
MM’s volumes are expected to increase by 7% YoY, as tractor volumes are likely to
increase by 25% YoY and UV volumes by 2.3% YoY. However, 3W sales are expected to
decline 27% YoY.
n
In the 2W segment (barring BJAUT), HMCL and TVSL wholesales are expected to
increase at a healthy 20% and 15%, respectively, led by improving retails in key states
and inventory build-up to meet festive demand. BJAUT is likely to record a decline of
2.3% YoY due to weak 3W and exports sales.
n
We expect RE volumes to grow at 19.9% YoY to 64k units.
n
CV manufacturers are expected to see a sharp recovery in wholesales, led by strong
growth in LCV sales. We expect AL to outperform other CV manufacturers, with 9.6%
YoY growth (LCVs +30% YoY, HCVs +3.9% YoY), while TTMT and VECV’s CV sales are
expected to decline by 3.2% and 2.7%, respectively.
n
We prefer 4Ws over 2Ws and CVs due to stronger volume growth and a stable
competitive environment. While we expect 2W volumes to benefit from rural recovery
in the near term, competitive intensity remains high in this segment witnessing
changing customer preferences. For CVs, we expect a gradual volume recovery from
2HFY18.
n
Our top picks are Tata Motors, Maruti Suzuki and Amara Raja. We also consider MM
as the best way to participate in rural market recovery.
Motilal Oswal values your
support in the Asiamoney Brokers
Poll 2017 for India Research, Sales
and Trading team.
We
request your ballot.
Jinesh Gandhi - Research Analyst
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1524
Deep A Shah - Research Analyst
(Deep.S@MotilalOswal.com);+912261291533/
Jigar Shah - Research Analyst
Jigar.Shah@MotilalOswal.com);+912239825402
31 July 2017
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
1
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Automobiles | Update
Exhibit 1:
Snapshot of volumes for July-17
YoY
Company Sales
Maruti Suzuki
LCVs
Vans
Mini Segment
Compact (incl Dzire
Tour)
Mid Size - CIAZ
UV (Ertiga, S-Cross)
Total Domestic
Export
Mahindra &
Mahindra
UV (incl. pick-ups)
LCV
Verito
Three-Wheelers
Tractors
Tata Motors
HCV's
LCV's
CV's
Cars
UV's
Hero MotoCorp
Bajaj Auto
Motorcycles
Total Two-Wheelers
Three-Wheelers
Domestic
Exports
Ashok Leyland
CV (ex LCV)
LCV (Nissan JV)
TVS Motor
Motorcycles
Scooters
Mopeds
Three-Wheelers
Total Domestic
Total Exports
Eicher Motors
Royal Enfield
VECV
Domestic LMD
Domestic HD
Domestic Buses
Total Domestic
Exports
Jul-17
Jul-16
MoM
YoY (%)
MoM
Jun-17
chg
(%) chg
9.5
119,403 25.7
206
69.9
1.0
9,208
61.8
12.0
25,524
53.8
15.0
-15.0
14.0
11.4
-11.8
7.3
2.3
27.9
-26.8
25.3
-4.0
-11.7
3.0
-3.2
-5.0
-11.3
20.3
-2.3
-1.9
-1.9
-4.8
-1.4
-3.6
14.4
10.0
30.0
14.9
22.0
32.3
-5.8
-18.3
15.7
10.7
19.9
-2.7
12.2
-26.4
-7.9
-1.7
-7.8
40,496
3,950
13,879
93,263
26,140
68,649
31,563
1,593
2,560
32,933
40,358
10,948
18,107
29,055
10,110
1,193
624,185
244,878
204,667
204,667
40,211
126,975
117,903
12,330
9,202
3,128
273,791
112,146
90,448
66,044
5,153
229,402
44,389
63,160
3,885
1,887
552
943
3,382
503
51.7
11.1
42.8
50.3
-61.7
-10.9
9.3
-24.7
36.7
-33.2
2.6
0.5
-4.2
-2.4
16.5
9.0
2.5
31.6
36.8
36.8
4.9
53.7
7.7
-2.7
-2.2
-4.0
4.1
3.4
-0.5
9.8
26.1
4.8
0.3
1.3
8.1
11.3
8.7
-4.6
6.4
19.3
Residual
Residual
Monthly
(%)
FY18YTD FY17YTD
FY18 estimate Gr. (%) Gr. (%)
Run rate
chg
544,711 485,559 12.2 1,781,258
13.6
14.2 154,568
1,395
14
1,500
-92.9
13
50,634 51,306 -1.3
164,170
8.0
12.7 14,192
142,767 127,774 11.7
448,294
8.3
6.8
38,191
216,748 193,442
20,086 18,852
76,940 56,730
508,571 448,118
36,140 37,441
262,701 253,136
137,970 139,309
4,643
4,893
13,555 16,786
106,533 92,148
151,115 166,889
38,465 53,245
63,550 67,495
102,015 120,740
43,777 41,406
5,323
4,743
2,489,375 2,277,502
1,210,634 1,324,566
1,055,714 1,158,067
1,055,714 1,158,067
154,920 166,499
674,109 822,106
536,525 502,460
40,487 41,657
28,866 32,209
11,621
9,448
1,087,108 962,966
446,050 377,503
347,572 264,347
269,949 295,819
23,537 25,297
917,381 819,712
169,727 143,254
12.0
6.5
35.6
13.5
-3.5
3.8
-1.0
-5.1
-19.2
15.6
-9.5
-27.8
-5.8
-15.5
5.7
12.2
9.3
-8.6
-8.8
-8.8
-7.0
-18.0
6.8
-2.8
-10.4
23
12.9
18.2
31.5
-8.7
-7.0
11.9
18.5
757,308
54,781
230,748
1,656,801
124,457
851,128
477,857
15,909
54,921
302,441
608,265
184,978
224,614
409,592
165,812
32,861
7,435,906
3,910,922
3,446,114
3,446,114
464,808
2,348,816
1,562,106
166,553
122,466
44,087
3,396,202
1,291,606
1,065,027
958,060
81,509
2,871,872
524,330
828,730
62,341
28,508
11,109
12,884
52,500
8,562
29.5
-15.0
17.9
14.7
0.3
20.3
9.3
10.9
5.0
15.0
12.2
5.2
7.5
6.4
21.0
60.7
11.6
6.7
7.0
7.0
4.2
4
10.7
14.8
8.1
38.8
16.2
20.4
22.3
5.2
17.7
14.9
23.1
38.1
-23.9
10.6
15.2
2.0
29.5
14.0
19.2
16.5
14.7
21.8
19.5
13.8
16.5
27.6
75.4
12.8
15.3
15.9
15.9
10.9
16.9
12.8
21.9
15.4
45.4
17.8
21.7
18.3
11.9
31.9
16.4
25.5
67,570
4,337
19,226
143,529
11,040
73,553
42,486
1,408
5,171
24,488
57,144
18,314
20,133
38,447
15,254
3,442
618,316
337,536
298,800
298,800
38,736
209,338
128,198
15,758
11,700
4,058
288,637
105,695
89,682
86,014
7,246
244,311
44,325
150,140 137,116
350
14
14,895 14,748
39,257 35,051
61,434 53,421
4,388
5,162
19,815 17,382
140,140 125,778
10,000 11,338
61,200
34,500
1,200
3,500
22,000
41,423
11,000
17,344
28,344
11,779
1,300
640,000
322,200
280,000
280,000
42,200
195,200
127,000
12,003
9,000
3,003
285,000
116,000
90,000
72,500
6,500
240,500
44,500
64,000
4,200
2,100
600
900
3,600
600
57,011
33,739
938
4,781
17,553
43,160
12,457
16,839
29,296
12,399
1,465
532,113
329,833
285,527
285,527
44,306
198,022
131,811
10,492
8,182
2,310
248,002
95,062
68,033
76,947
7,960
207,810
40,192
53,378
4,315
1,872
815
977
3,664
651
247,998 200,861 23.5
15,701 20,229 -22.4
7,168
8,050 -11.0
2,007
4,020 -50.1
4,338
5,196 -16.5
13,513 17,266 -21.7
2,188
2,963 -26.2
24.3
24.7 72,591
6.7
22.2
5,830
10.0
19.4
2,667
0.0
28.4
1,138
5.0
20.8
1,068
4.0
17.5
4,873
6.6
25.7
797
Source: MOSL, Company
31 July 2017
2

Automobiles | Update
Exhibit 2:
Comparative valuation
CMP
(INR)*
Auto OEM's
Bajaj Auto
Hero MotoCorp
TVS Motor
M&M
Maruti Suzuki
Tata Motors
Ashok Leyland
Eicher Motors
Auto Ancillaries
Bharat Forge
Exide Industries
Amara Raja Batteries
BOSCH
Endurance Tech
Rating
TP
(INR)
3,281
3,818
606
1,580
8,863
631
118
31,326
1,330
269
1,095
23,738
1,025
P/E (x)
FY18E FY19E
20.8
19.6
35.2
21.0
27.0
14.4
20.3
33.7
30.3
23.4
24.0
36.9
30.2
17.4
18.6
22.2
17.5
20.2
6.9
15.1
26.3
23.0
19.6
20.1
31.3
23.8
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY18E FY19E
15.0
12.6
23.3
15.1
16.7
4.2
10.2
27.4
17.9
14.5
14.3
24.7
14.6
12.3
12.1
15.2
12.9
12.9
2.7
7.7
22.6
14.4
12.2
11.8
21.0
12.2
RoE (%)
FY18E FY19E
22.2
34.6
28.6
14.1
20.1
16.5
23.2
40.8
19.8
14.1
21.2
21.1
22.4
24.0
31.5
35.2
14.6
22.8
27.3
27.0
38.0
22.3
15.0
21.3
21.9
23.6
Div Yield (%) EPS CAGR (%)
FY18E FY19E
FY17-19E
2.3
2.4
0.5
1.4
1.1
0.1
1.9
0.5
0.7
1.0
0.6
0.9
0.4
2.8
2.4
0.8
1.4
1.3
0.1
2.1
0.6
0.9
1.0
0.8
1.1
0.8
11.2
8.5
48.5
21.3
22.8
80.2
23.7
34.0
37.8
16.3
22.6
27.3
28.6
Source: MOSL
2,846
3,707
574
1,398
7,592
446
105
29,062
1,141
215
848
23,962
922
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
31 July 2017
3

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Automobiles | Update
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report. Each of these entities functions as a separate, distinct and independent of each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document. This report has been prepared on the basis of
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therein. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any
purpose. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution,
publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject MOSL to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be
eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. Neither the Firm, not its
directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with
the use of the information.
The person accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt MOSL or any of its affiliates or employees from, any and all responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not to
hold MOSL or any of its affiliates or employees responsible for any such misuse and further agrees to hold MOSL or any of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses, costs, damages, expenses that may be
suffered by the person accessing this information due to any errors and delays.
Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022-3980 4263; www.motilaloswal.com. Correspondence Address: Palm Spring
Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 3080 1000. Compliance Officer: Neeraj Agarwal, Email Id:
na@motilaloswal.com,
Contact No.:022-30801085.
Registration details of group entities.: MOSL: NSE (Cash): INB231041238; NSE (F&O): INF231041238; NSE (CD): INE231041238; BSE (Cash): INB011041257; BSE(F&O): INF011041257; BSE(CD); MSE(Cash): INB261041231;
MSE(F&O): INF261041231; MSE(CD): INE261041231; CDSL: IN-DP-16-2015; NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-152-2000; Research Analyst: INH000000412. AMFI: ARN 17397. Investment Adviser: INA000007100. Motilal Oswal Asset
Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670) offers PMS and Mutual Funds products. Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409) offers
wealth management solutions. *Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs, Insurance and IPO products. * Motilal Oswal Commodities Broker Pvt. Ltd. offers Commodities
Products. * Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. offers Real Estate products. * Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd. offers Private Equity products
31 July 2017
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