Automobiles
Sep-17 Sales Estimates
Healthy retails, discounts to drive 2W/PV wholesales
CV dispatches expected to be healthy too
"As a trend, we are seeing
huge spike in our customer
walk-ins and overall retails
in every festival, be it
Ganesh Chaturthi, Onam or
even the beginning of
Navratri."
Our channel checks indicate healthy retail growth (10-15%) in the 2W and PV segments,
led by festive demand and positive rural sentiment, which should drive wholesales for
September. CV segment growth is expected to be largely led by LCVs and ICVs. Also, there
have been no indications of moderation in discounts in the CV segment.
Our interaction with mass market 2W channel partners indicates healthy growth, led by
strong retail demand from key states. Good monsoon and an increase in crop realizations
have lifted sentiment in rural/semi-urban areas. Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) is witnessing
~10% retail growth in key states, while TVS Motor (TVSL) and HMSI are outperforming the
industry, with growth in excess of 15%. However, Bajaj Auto’s (BJAUT) retail volume
growth for key markets is at 7-9%, lagging other OEMs. On the PV front, MSIL is witnessing
retail growth in excess of 15%, while Mahindra & Mahindra’s (MM) volumes are increasing
at ~8-10%.
Key highlights:
n
MSIL’s domestic dispatches growth is expected at 19% YoY. Demand for
Baleno,
Brezza
and the new
Dzire
continues to be robust, as these models enjoy a healthy
waiting period of 2-3 months. Within its domestic portfolio,
CIAZ’s
sales are expected
to be weak (-16% YoY) due to the GST-led impact on hybrid cars, while growth in the
compact segment (+40% YoY) is likely to be driven by the new
Dzire.
n
Tata Motors’ (TTMT) PV segment is expected to grow 25% YoY, led by inventory build-
up of its first compact SUV
Nexon.
CV sales are expected to grow 11.5% YoY, led by a
15% increase in LCV sales, while M&HCV sales are expected to grow 7% YoY.
n
MM’s volumes are expected to increase by 3.4% YoY, with tractors volumes growing
by 4.7% YoY and UV volumes by 6.6% YoY. However, 3W sales should decline 28% YoY.
n
In the 2W segment, TVSL’s sales are expected to increase 15%, while BJAUT and
HMCL’s sales are expected to grow by 2% and 4%, respectively.
n
We expect RE volumes to grow at a healthy 21% YoY to 70k units.
n
CV manufacturers are expected exhibit an improvement in wholesales, led by strong
growth in LCV sales. We expect AL’s wholesales to grow 31.5% YoY (LCVs: +24.4% YoY;
HCVs +33.9% YoY). TTMT and VECV’s CV sales are expected to grow 11.5% and 10.8%,
respectively.
n
We prefer 4Ws over 2Ws and CVs due to stronger volume growth and a stable
competitive environment for the segment. We expect 2W volumes to benefit from a
rural recovery in the near term, but also note that the segment faces intense
competition due to changing customer preferences. For CVs, we expect a gradual
volume recovery from 2HFY18.
n
Our top picks are TTMT, MSIL and Amara Raja (AMRJ). We also consider MM as the
best bet on a rural market recovery.
Sector Update | 28 September 2017
Automobiles | Update
YS Guleria,
Sr VP, Sales and
Marketing
HMSI
Jinesh Gandhi
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5416
Deep Shah
(Deep.S@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1533
28 September 2017
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
1
8
a
ugust 2016
1
Motil
A
l Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Automobiles | Update
Exhibit 1:
Snapshot of volumes for Sep-17
YoY
Company Sales
Maruti Suzuki
LCVs
Vans
Mini Segment
Compact (incl Dzire
Tour)
Mid Size - CIAZ
UVs
Total Domestic
Export
Mahindra &
Mahindra
UV (incl. pick-ups)
LCV
Three-Wheelers
Tractors
Tata Motors
HCV's
LCV's
CV's
Cars
UV's
Hero MotoCorp
Bajaj Auto
Motorcycles
Total Two-Wheelers
Three-Wheelers
Domestic
Exports
Ashok Leyland
CV (ex LCV)
LCV
TVS Motor
Motorcycles
Scooters
Mopeds
Three-Wheelers
Total Domestic
Total Exports
Eicher Motors
Royal Enfield
VECV
Domestic LMD
Domestic HD
Domestic Buses
Total Domestic
Exports
Sep-17
170,950
750
13,500
42,500
76,000
YoY
(%) chg
149,143
14.6
44
13,618
-0.9
44,395
-4.3
Sep-16
54,297
40.0
MoM
Residual Residual
Growth Monthly
FY18
MoM
Aug-17
FY18YTD FY17YTD (%) chg
Gr. (%)
(%)
Run rate
estimate
(%) chg
163,701
4.4 894,568 766,913
16.6 1,794,125
14.4
12.2 149,926
730
2.7
3,228
83
6,000
-53.2
462
13,931
-3.1
78,884
77,755
1.5
164,170
8.0
14.9
14,214
35,428
20.0 223,748 207,659
7.7
459,683
11.0
14.4
39,323
74,012
2.7
-14.8
17.5
7.5
-35.9
35.2
12.7
6.6
8.8
93.8
15.0
5.2
11.4
8.7
23.6
56.1
3.3
14.5
18.0
18.0
-5.2
22.8
2.0
16.3
13.6
25.5
6.3
9.0
4.9
5.6
-5.0
7.2
0.9
3.0
16.0
22.9
11.6
13.2
18.5
2.4
368,442
34,032
129,548
837,882
56,686
399,982
219,431
6,682
21,988
151,881
261,223
70,988
105,916
176,904
70,076
14,243
3,852,941
1,914,692
1,659,757
1,659,757
254,935
1,112,565
802,127
69,949
51,459
18,490
1,728,342
673,404
584,304
429,345
41,289
1,460,554
267,788
386,434
25,583
12,056
4,055
5,859
21,970
3,613
296,304
31,610
91,959
705,370
61,543
383,962
213,655
6,636
27,418
136,253
258,598
80,133
103,491
183,624
66,625
8,349
3,568,887
2,026,592
1,769,954
1,769,954
256,638
1,278,012
748,580
64,611
49,373
15,238
1,530,526
611,511
425,769
455,508
37,738
1,315,011
215,515
314,424
29,063
12,554
5,506
6,804
24,864
4,199
24.3
7.7
40.9
18.8
-7.9
4.2
2.7
0.7
-19.8
11.5
1.0
-11.4
2.3
-3.7
5.2
70.6
8.0
-5.5
-6.2
-6.2
-0.7
-12.9
7.2
8.3
4.2
21
12.9
10.1
37.2
-5.7
9.4
11.1
24.3
22.9
-12.0
-4.0
-26.4
-13.9
-11.6
-14.0
733,103
60,259
246,454
1,669,668
124,457
851,128
477,857
15,909
54,921
302,441
601,192
181,537
224,614
406,152
157,026
38,015
7,435,906
3,910,922
3,446,114
3,446,114
464,808
2,348,816
1,562,106
166,553
122,466
44,087
3,392,800
1,317,640
1,078,268
912,534
84,358
2,856,660
536,140
828,730
62,341
28,508
11,109
12,884
52,500
8,562
25.3
-6.5
25.9
15.6
0.3
20.3
9.3
10.9
5.0
15.0
10.9
3.2
7.5
5.5
14.6
85.9
11.6
6.7
7.0
7.0
4.2
4
10.7
14.8
8.1
38.8
16.1
22.9
23.8
0.2
21.8
14.3
25.9
24.3
6.7
10.0
0.0
5.0
4.0
6.6
26.4
-20.1
12.6
12.5
8.4
39.4
15.5
19.8
32.3
18.8
19.8
15.5
12.5
13.9
23.5
96.5
15.8
21.8
23.2
23.2
10.8
26.6
14.7
20.1
11.1
54.8
19.6
39.7
11.0
6.2
36.7
17.9
27.6
25.6
25.3
23.1
25.9
28.5
19.3
29.0
60,777
4,371
19,484
138,631
11,295
75,191
43,071
1,538
5,489
25,093
56,661
18,425
19,783
38,208
14,492
3,962
597,161
332,705
297,726
297,726
34,979
206,042
126,663
16,101
11,834
4,266
277,410
107,373
82,327
80,532
7,178
232,684
44,725
73,716
6,126
2,742
1,176
1,171
5,088
825
5,500
6,544
25,200 18,423
163,450 137,321
7,500 11,822
79,270
42,000
1,020
4,250
32,000
56,327
15,750
21,800
37,550
14,277
4,500
701,500
383,500
335,000
335,000
48,500
246,500
137,000
15,850
12,000
3,850
337,500
122,000
120,000
87,500
8,000
291,500
46,000
70,000
5,245
2,750
950
825
4,525
720
76,692
39,404
799
5,927
30,562
48,648
14,675
18,992
33,667
13,281
1,700
674,961
376,679
331,976
331,976
44,703
255,592
121,087
12,057
8,963
3,094
293,257
119,813
84,850
82,786
5,808
255,093
38,164
57,842
4,734
2,523
771
854
4,148
586
-16.0
6,457
36.8 21,442
19.0 152,000
-36.6 11,701
3.4
6.6
27.7
-28.3
4.7
15.8
7.3
14.8
11.5
7.5
164.7
3.9
1.8
0.9
0.9
8.5
-3.6
13.1
31.5
33.9
24.4
15.1
1.8
41.4
5.7
37.7
14.3
20.5
21.0
10.8
9.0
23.2
-3.4
9.1
22.9
58,632
37,253
957
3,906
16,516
48,988
14,977
19,573
34,550
11,555
2,883
678,797
335,031
283,861
283,861
51,170
200,659
134,372
13,634
10,567
3,067
317,563
111,927
114,354
82,865
8,417
271,959
45,604
67,977
4,521
2,238
851
729
3,818
703
28 September 2017
2

Automobiles | Update
Exhibit 2:
Comparative valuation
CMP
(INR)*
Auto OEM's
Bajaj Auto
Hero MotoCorp
TVS Motor
M&M
Maruti Suzuki
Tata Motors
Ashok Leyland
Eicher Motors
Auto Ancillaries
Bharat Forge
Exide Industries
Amara Raja Batteries
BOSCH
Endurance Tech
3,028
3,732
645
1,231
7,734
404
112
30,467
1,216
203
711
21,070
998
Rating
TP
(INR)
3,281
3,818
612
1,634
8,816
542
118
35,854
1,353
269
986
21,994
1,059
P/E (x)
FY18E FY19E
22.1
19.7
44.7
18.0
27.5
18.0
21.7
35.7
33.3
22.1
25.2
38.5
34.1
18.5
18.7
27.2
14.9
20.6
6.8
16.1
27.9
24.1
18.5
18.8
29.9
26.3
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY18E FY19E
16.1
12.7
28.5
12.9
17.3
4.5
11.0
27.4
18.4
13.7
13.7
23.9
16.2
13.3
12.2
18.3
10.9
13.4
2.7
8.4
23.6
14.6
11.5
10.1
18.7
13.5
RoE (%)
FY18E FY19E
22.2
34.6
25.7
13.9
20.1
12.3
23.2
37.0
19.2
14.1
17.3
18.0
21.6
24.0
31.5
33.6
14.9
22.8
26.6
27.0
35.4
22.8
15.0
19.9
20.7
23.3
Div Yield (%) EPS CAGR (%)
FY18E FY19E
FY17-19E
2.1
2.4
0.5
1.6
1.1
0.1
1.8
0.5
0.7
1.1
0.6
0.9
0.4
2.6
2.4
0.7
1.6
1.3
0.1
2.0
0.6
0.9
1.1
0.8
1.1
0.7
11.2
8.5
42.1
23.2
22.7
73.7
23.7
33.6
39.0
16.3
16.4
22.1
27.1
Source: MOSL
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
28 September 2017
3

Disclosures:
The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations).
Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. (MOSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000412. MOSL, the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the Regulations, is engaged in the business of providing Stock
broking services, Investment Advisory Services, Depository participant services & distribution of various financial products. MOSL is a subsidiary company of Motilal Oswal Financial Service Ltd. (MOFSL). MOFSL is a listed
public company, the details in respect of which are available on
www.motilaloswal.com.
MOSL is registered with the Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and is a registered Trading Member with National Stock
Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE), Metropolitan Stock Exchange Of India Ltd. (MSE) for its stock broking activities & is Depository participant with Central Depository Services Limited
(CDSL) & National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) and is member of Association of Mutual Funds of India (AMFI) for distribution of financial products. Details of associate entities of Motilal Oswal Securities Limited are
available on the website at
http://onlinereports.motilaloswal.com/Dormant/documents/Associate%20Details.pdf
Pending Regulatory Enquiries against Motilal Oswal Securities Limited by SEBI:
SEBI pursuant to a complaint from client Shri C.R. Mohanraj alleging unauthorized trading, issued a letter dated 29th April 2014 to MOSL notifying appointment of an Adjudicating Officer as per SEBI regulations to hold
inquiry and adjudge violation of SEBI Regulations; MOSL requested SEBI to provide all documents, records, investigation report relied upon by SEBI which were referred in Show Cause Notice and also sought personal
hearing. The matter is currently pending.
MOSL, it’s associates, Research Analyst or their relative may have any financial interest in the subject company. MOSL and/or its associates and/or Research Analyst may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities
in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report.
MOSL and its associate company(ies), their directors and Research Analyst and their relatives may; (a)
from time to time, have a long or short position in, act as principal in, and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein. (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities
and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other
potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the specific recommendations made by the
analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOSL even though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned
in the research report.
Research Analyst may have served as director/officer, etc. in the subject company in the last 12 month period. MOSL and/or its associates may have received any compensation from the subject
company in the past 12 months.
In the last 12 months period ending on the last day of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of this research report, MOSL or any of its associates may have:
a)
managed or co-managed public offering of securities from subject company of this research report,
b)
received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from subject company of this research report,
c)
received compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company of this research report.
d)
Subject Company may have been a client of MOSL or its associates during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report.
MOSL and it’s associates have not received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report. To enhance transparency, MOSL has incorporated a
Disclosure of Interest Statement in this document. This should, however, not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. MOSL and / or its affiliates do and seek to do business including investment
banking with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, the recipients of this report should be aware that MOSL may have a potential conflict of interest that may affect the objectivity of this report.
Compensation of Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.
Terms & Conditions:
This report has been prepared by MOSL and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and may not be altered in any way, transmitted
to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of MOSL. The report is based on the facts, figures and information that are
considered true, correct, reliable and accurate. The intent of this report is not recommendatory in nature. The information is obtained from publicly available media or other sources believed to be reliable. Such
information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to
change without notice. The report is prepared solely for informational purpose and does not constitute an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments for
the clients. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. MOSL will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report.
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly
or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report.
Automobiles | Update
Disclosure of Interest Statement
§
Analyst ownership of the stock
Companies where there is interest
No
A graph of daily closing prices of securities is available at
www.nseindia.com, www.bseindia.com.
Research Analyst views on Subject Company may vary based on Fundamental research and Technical Research. Proprietary
trading desk of MOSL or its associates maintains arm’s length distance with Research Team as all the activities are segregated from MOSL research activity and therefore it can have an independent view with regards to
subject company for which Research Team have expressed their views.
Regional Disclosures (outside India)
This report is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity resident in a state, country or any jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law,
regulation or which would subject MOSL & its group companies to registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdictions.
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pursuant to the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong) “SFO”. As per SEBI (Research Analyst Regulations) 2014 Motilal Oswal Securities (SEBI Reg No. INH000000412) has an agreement
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Research Analysis in Hong Kong.
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Accordingly, in the absence of specific exemption under the Acts, any brokerage and investment services provided by MOSL, including the products and services described herein are not available to or intended for U.S.
persons. This report is intended for distribution only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by SEC (henceforth referred to as "major institutional
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The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S. registered broker-dealer, MOSIPL, and
therefore, may not be subject to NASD rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communication with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
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completeness or fairness of the information and opinions contained in this document. The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be
treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may
be required from time to time without any prior approval. MOSL, its associates, their directors and the employees may from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent
in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform or seek to perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this
report. Each of these entities functions as a separate, distinct and independent of each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document. This report has been prepared on the basis of
information that is already available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of MOSL. The views expressed are those of the analyst, and the Company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed
therein. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any
purpose. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution,
publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject MOSL to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be
eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. Neither the Firm, not its
directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with
the use of the information.
The person accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt MOSL or any of its affiliates or employees from, any and all responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not to
hold MOSL or any of its affiliates or employees responsible for any such misuse and further agrees to hold MOSL or any of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses, costs, damages, expenses that may be
suffered by the person accessing this information due to any errors and delays.
Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022-3980 4263; www.motilaloswal.com. Correspondence Address: Palm Spring
Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 3080 1000. Compliance Officer: Neeraj Agarwal, Email Id:
na@motilaloswal.com,
Contact No.:022-30801085.
Registration details of group entities.: MOSL: NSE (Cash): INB231041238; NSE (F&O): INF231041238; NSE (CD): INE231041238; BSE (Cash): INB011041257; BSE(F&O): INF011041257; BSE(CD); MSE(Cash): INB261041231;
MSE(F&O): INF261041231; MSE(CD): INE261041231; CDSL: IN-DP-16-2015; NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-152-2000; Research Analyst: INH000000412. AMFI: ARN 17397. Investment Adviser: INA000007100. Motilal Oswal Asset
Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670) offers PMS and Mutual Funds products. Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409) offers
wealth management solutions. *Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs, Insurance and IPO products. * Motilal Oswal Commodities Broker Pvt. Ltd. offers Commodities
Products. * Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. offers Real Estate products. * Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd. offers Private Equity products
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