Sagar Cement
30 November 2017
Update | Sector: Cement
Spotlight
The Idea Junction
Well placed to capture growth in AP/Telangana
Cost efficiencies and scaling of capacity to drive profits
Sagar Cements (SGC) is a Hyderabad-based cement company, primarily operating in the
southern market of India (~78% of overall volumes). The company’s key markets are
AP/Telangana (~46% of volumes), Tamil Nadu (~16%) and Karnataka (~16%). To diversify
geographically, SGC is likely to increase its capacity from 4.3mt currently to ~5.8mt by
FY20.
Stock Info
Bloomberg
CMP (INR)
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
SGC IN
872
20.4
17.8 / 0.3
940 /605
-2/-9/-4
Ready to capitalize on available opportunities
SGC is well placed to capitalize on strong opportunities in the underlying markets
of AP/Telangana, where demand has grown in excess of 20% YoY over the past
12-15 months. We expect cement demand in AP/Telangana to grow at 12-15%
over the next two years, driven by the government’s push toward infrastructure
development and creation of a new state capital of Amravati (Andhra Pradesh).
This is likely to result in strong volume growth for SGC.
Financial Snapshot (INR m)
Y/E March
2015* 2016 2017
Sales
6,351 8,624 9,416
EBITDA
597 1,231 1,104
Adj. PAT for OI
118
443
-39
Adj. EPS (INR)
6
22
-2
Adj. EPS Gr. (%)
L/P
274
P/L
BV/Sh. (INR)
256
269
374
RoE (%)
3
8
-1
RoCE (%)
52
9
4
Valuations
P/E (x)
6
40
NA
P/BV (x)
3
3
2
EV/EBITDA (x)
30
18
19
*Standalone
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Sep-16 Jun-17 Sep-17
Promoter
56.9
50.0
50.0
DII
5.6
15.5
15.6
FII
2.2
3.6
3.5
Others
35.3
30.9
30.9
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Sagar Cements
Sensex - Rebased
950
850
750
650
550
Diversification and low-cost capacity addition to bring in stability
In an attempt to diversify geographically, SGC is likely to increase capacity by
~35% over FY17-19 at a minimal capex of INR2b (USD20/t) by way of
debottlenecking and brownfield expansion. With capacity ramp-up in
Bayyavaram, SGC is likely to increase its presence in east, which has seen strong
growth. Low-cost capex will meaningfully improve its return ratios, in our view.
Cost efficiencies to further drive margins
SGC is likely to improve its cost curve over the medium term, led by i)
stabilization of WHRS, ii) commissioning of the 18MW thermal power unit, iii)
lead distance reduction for the eastern markets due to capacity expansion in
Vizag and iv) impact of positive operating leverage, driven by volume growth.
Available at a discount to peers
SGC intends to double capacity every 10 years via low-cost brownfield expansion
and debottlenecking projects, given that it has access to large limestone reserves.
This is likely to structurally improve its return ratios. We believe that given the
prospects of strong sustainable growth, SGC is attractively priced at EV/t of
~USD60-65 – a significant discount to replacement cost of USD110/t.
Our coverage universe is a wide representation of investment opportunities in India. However,
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Spotlight
is our attempt
to feature such stocks based on fundamental analysis and site visits, without initiating formal
coverage on them. Spotlight adopts a descriptive rating system, which uses terms like Interesting,
Cautious and In Transition (see definitions alongside). We do not assign Buy, Sell or Neutral
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Research in its entirety, and not draw inferences from the ratings alone. Ratings should not be
used or relied upon as investment advice.
Interesting: Currently, the analyst
believes that this is an interesting
stock based on its fundamental
strength
Cautious: Currently, the analyst
does not have adequate
conviction based on fundamental
assessment of the stock
In Transition: Currently, the
analyst thinks that the stock is in
transition from "Cautious" to
"Interesting"
Abhishek Ghosh – Research analyst
(Abhishek.Ghosh@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 6129 1538
Pradnya Ganar – Research analyst
(Pradnya.Ganar@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3980 4322
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.