Sector Update| 1 December 2017
Automobiles
Maruti Suzuki
CMP: INR8,608
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
MSIL IN
302
2,025/31.6
7249 / 3868
5/22/55
TP: INR9,866 (+14.6%)
Buy
Volume up 14.1% YoY to 154.6k units (above est. of 149k)
Domestic sales grew 15% YoY to 145k units
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E MARCH 2018E 2019E 2020E
Sales
800.4 956.2 1,103.0
EBITDA
124.8 159.1 183.8
Adj. PAT
85.3 113.3 133.3
Adj. PS(INR)* 288.1 381.0 447.8
EPS Gr. (%)
15.8 32.3
17.5
BV/Sh. (INR) 1,378 1,632 1,930
RoE (%)
20.5 23.0
22.9
RoCE (%)
28.6 31.7
31.4
Payout (%)
36.2 32.1
32.7
Valuations
P/E (x)
29.9 22.6
19.2
P/CE (x)
22.6 17.7
15.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 18.3 13.8
11.5
Div. Yield (%)
1.0
1.2
1.4
*Cons.
MSIL’s Sep-17 wholesales came in at 154,600 units (+14.1% YoY), higher than our
estimate of 148,970 units. YTD growth was at 14.6%, with a residual monthly run-rate
of 148.5k units.
Domestic volumes grew 15% YoY to 145k (est. of 138k), led by growth in the compact
(+24.8% YoY) and UV (+34% YoY) segments.
Growth in the compact segment was led by Baleno and new Dzire, while that in UVs
was led by Brezza and the new S-cross.
Ciaz sales declined 26.2% YoY to 4k (est. of 3.8k).
Export volumes were flat YoY at 9,300 units (est. of 11,000 units).
The stock trades at 22.6x/19.2x FY19E/20E consol. EPS of ~INR381/448. Maintain Buy.
Snapshot of volumes for Nov-17
YoY
Company Sales
Maruti Suzuki
LCVs
Vans
Mini Segment
Compact (incl Dzire Tour)
Mid Size - CIAZ
UVs
Total Domestic
Export
YoY
Nov-17 Nov-16 (%)
chg
154,600 135,550 14.1
1,003
105
13,565 12,238 10.8
38,204 38,886 -1.8
65,447 52,448 24.8
4,009 5,433 -26.2
23,072 17,215 34.0
145,300 126,325 15.0
9,300 9,225 0.8
MoM
MoM
Oct-17 (%)
chg
146,446 5.6
872
15.0
12,669 7.1
32,490 17.6
62,480 4.7
4,107 -2.4
23,382 -1.3
136,000 6.8
10,446 -11.0
FY18YTD
1,187,735
5,232
105,353
290,421
493,173
42,251
170,702
1,107,132
80,603
Residual Residual FY18 YTD
(%)
FY18
Gr. Growth Monthly Monthly
FY17YTD
Run rate Run rate
(%)
chg estimate (%)
1,036,256
268
102,783
280,474
401,349
43,403
127,182
955,459
80,797
14.6 1,798,133
8,000
2.5 161,802
3.5 432,948
22.9 760,103
-2.7 63,159
34.2 245,218
15.9 1,671,231
-0.2 126,902
14.6
6.4
4.6
30.0
-2.0
25.3
15.7
2.3
14.7
14.7
6.8
45.5
-0.7
8.7
15.3
7.0
152,600
692
14,112
35,632
66,733
5,227
18,629
141,025
11,575
148,467
654
13,169
36,303
61,647
5,281
21,338
138,392
10,075
Jinesh Gandhi
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5416
Deep Shah
(Deep.S@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1533
Suneeta Kamath
(Suneeta.Kamath@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1534
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.