Sector Update| 1 December 2017
Automobiles
Maruti Suzuki
CMP: INR8,608
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
MSIL IN
302
2,025/31.6
7249 / 3868
5/22/55
TP: INR9,866 (+14.6%)
Buy
Volume up 14.1% YoY to 154.6k units (above est. of 149k)
Domestic sales grew 15% YoY to 145k units
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E MARCH 2018E 2019E 2020E
Sales
800.4 956.2 1,103.0
EBITDA
124.8 159.1 183.8
Adj. PAT
85.3 113.3 133.3
Adj. PS(INR)* 288.1 381.0 447.8
EPS Gr. (%)
15.8 32.3
17.5
BV/Sh. (INR) 1,378 1,632 1,930
RoE (%)
20.5 23.0
22.9
RoCE (%)
28.6 31.7
31.4
Payout (%)
36.2 32.1
32.7
Valuations
P/E (x)
29.9 22.6
19.2
P/CE (x)
22.6 17.7
15.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 18.3 13.8
11.5
Div. Yield (%)
1.0
1.2
1.4
*Cons.
MSIL’s Sep-17 wholesales came in at 154,600 units (+14.1% YoY), higher than our
estimate of 148,970 units. YTD growth was at 14.6%, with a residual monthly run-rate
of 148.5k units.
Domestic volumes grew 15% YoY to 145k (est. of 138k), led by growth in the compact
(+24.8% YoY) and UV (+34% YoY) segments.
Growth in the compact segment was led by Baleno and new Dzire, while that in UVs
was led by Brezza and the new S-cross.
Ciaz sales declined 26.2% YoY to 4k (est. of 3.8k).
Export volumes were flat YoY at 9,300 units (est. of 11,000 units).
The stock trades at 22.6x/19.2x FY19E/20E consol. EPS of ~INR381/448. Maintain Buy.
Snapshot of volumes for Nov-17
YoY
Company Sales
Maruti Suzuki
LCVs
Vans
Mini Segment
Compact (incl Dzire Tour)
Mid Size - CIAZ
UVs
Total Domestic
Export
YoY
Nov-17 Nov-16 (%)
chg
154,600 135,550 14.1
1,003
105
13,565 12,238 10.8
38,204 38,886 -1.8
65,447 52,448 24.8
4,009 5,433 -26.2
23,072 17,215 34.0
145,300 126,325 15.0
9,300 9,225 0.8
MoM
MoM
Oct-17 (%)
chg
146,446 5.6
872
15.0
12,669 7.1
32,490 17.6
62,480 4.7
4,107 -2.4
23,382 -1.3
136,000 6.8
10,446 -11.0
FY18YTD
1,187,735
5,232
105,353
290,421
493,173
42,251
170,702
1,107,132
80,603
Residual Residual FY18 YTD
(%)
FY18
Gr. Growth Monthly Monthly
FY17YTD
Run rate Run rate
(%)
chg estimate (%)
1,036,256
268
102,783
280,474
401,349
43,403
127,182
955,459
80,797
14.6 1,798,133
8,000
2.5 161,802
3.5 432,948
22.9 760,103
-2.7 63,159
34.2 245,218
15.9 1,671,231
-0.2 126,902
14.6
6.4
4.6
30.0
-2.0
25.3
15.7
2.3
14.7
14.7
6.8
45.5
-0.7
8.7
15.3
7.0
152,600
692
14,112
35,632
66,733
5,227
18,629
141,025
11,575
148,467
654
13,169
36,303
61,647
5,281
21,338
138,392
10,075
Jinesh Gandhi
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5416
Deep Shah
(Deep.S@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1533
Suneeta Kamath
(Suneeta.Kamath@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1534
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Automobiles | Update
Mahindra & Mahindra
CMP: INR1,409
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
MM IN
592.6
794.7/12.4
1509 / 1142
3/6/-10
TP: INR1,658 (+17.6%)
Buy
Volumes grew 23.2% YoY to 61.3k units (below est. of 70.3k)
UV volumes up by 18.3% YoY, Tractors up by 31.8% YoY
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E MARCH
2018E 2019E 2020E
Sales
EBITDA
NP*
Adj. EPS(INR) *
EPS Gr. (%)
Cons. EPS(INR)
BV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Div. Yield (%)
*incl. MVML
478.9
59.8
41.1
68.7
9.8
75.0
478.3
14.5
13.4
20.5
2.9
13.6
1.4
540.1
66.6
46.3
77.4
12.7
85.7
531.8
14.6
13.6
18.2
2.6
12.0
1.4
599.1
75.3
53.0
88.6
14.5
94.6
596.1
14.9
14.0
15.9
2.4
9.0
1.4
MM’s volumes grew by 23.2% YoY to 61.3k units (est. of 70.3k units), led by an
increase in both tractor and UV volumes.
Tractors sales of 22.8k (+31.8% YoY) were below our estimate (25k), as domestic sales
and exports grew by ~32% YoY and ~27% YoY, respectively.
UV sales (incl. pick-ups) stood at 32.8k units (+18.3% YoY), below estimate of 38.2k.
Momentum in pick-ups continued with 20% YoY growth, while passenger utility
vehicles reported growth of 21% YoY.
LCV (>3.5t) sales grew by ~11% YoY and M&HCV sales by ~122% YoY.
3W volumes increased ~12.7% YoY to 4.5k units (est. of 6k units).
Speaking on the monthly performance, Rajan Wadhera, President, Automotive Sector,
M&M Ltd. said, “We are happy to be in a positive growth phase for November 2017,
which is usually a lean period post the festive season. Our passenger and small
commercial vehicles growth for the month of November have been very encouraging
at 21% and 29% respectively, while the MHCV segment continued to grow very well.
We expect our growth momentum to continue on the back of some recent refresh
launches as well as the positivity of our product portfolio.”
Rajesh Jejurikar, President - Farm Equipment Sector, Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. said,
“We have sold 21,046 tractors in the domestic market during November 2017, a
growth of 32% over last year. Agri economy has experienced healthy monsoon, higher
kharif production and improved MSPs. We expect the positive demand sentiment to
continue. In the exports market, we sold 1,708 tractors with growth of 27% over
November 2016."
The stock trades at 18.2x/15.9x FY19E/20E. Maintain Buy.
Snapshot of volumes for Nov-17
YoY
Company Sales
M&M
UV (incl. pick-ups)
LCV
Three-Wheelers
Tractors
Nov-17 Nov-16
61,324
32,823
1,292
4,455
22,754
49,761
27,739
807
3,953
17,262
YoY
(%)
chg
23.2
18.3
60.1
12.7
31.8
MoM
MoM
Oct-17 (%)
chg
91,411 -32.9
43,801 -25.1
1,222 5.7
6,126 -27.3
40,262 -43.5
Residual FY18 YTD
Residual
Monthly Monthly Run
FY18
FY18YTD FY17YTD (%) chg
Gr. (%) Growth (%)
Run rate
rate
estimate
572,673 530,908 7.9
300,392 286,592 4.8
9,574
8,320 15.1
34,247 37,304 -8.2
228,460 198,692 15.0
848,740
474,576
16,279
55,444
302,441
19.9
8.5
13.5
6.0
15.0
56.2
15.5
11.4
41.3
15.1
69,017
43,546
1,676
5,299
18,495
71,584
37,549
1,197
4,281
28,558
1 December 2017
2

Automobiles | Update
Tata Motors
CMP: INR399
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INR b)/ (USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
TTMT IN
3395.9
1525/22.8
599 / 376
-4/-21/-7
TP: INR575 (+44.1%)
Buy
Volumes grow 47.5% YoY to 57.4k units (above est. of 49.5k)
CV sales grew 55.2% YoY, while PV sales increased 32.4% YoY
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E MARCH 2018E 2019E 2020E
Net Sales
2,959 3,622 3,923
EBITDA
371.8 577.3 610.1
NP
83.6 220.0 233.0
Adj. EPS (INR) 24.6 64.8
68.6
EPS Gr. (%)
24.2 163.2
5.9
BV/Sh. (INR) 195.6 261.6 331.4
RoE (%)
13.4 28.3
23.1
RoCE (%)
7.0 16.6
14.6
Payout (%)
1.3
0.5
0.5
Valuations
P/E (x)
16.2
6.2
5.8
P/BV (x)
2.0
1.5
1.2
EV/EBITDA (x)
4.4
2.7
2.3
Div. Yield (%)
0.1
0.1
0.1
Tata Motors’ Sep-17 sales volumes increased 47.5% YoY to 57.4k units (est. of 49.5k
units).
PV segment sales increased by 32.4% YoY, as the car segment volumes declined 4.5%
YoY, while the UV segment registered volume growth of 366% YoY due to healthy
initial response to the recently launched Tata Nexon.
Total CV volumes increased 55.2% YoY to 40.1k units, led by an increase in both LCV
and HCV sales.
M&HCV sales increased 52.3% YoY to 17.5k units (est. of 14.1k units), while LCV sales
increased 57.5% YoY to 22.6k units (est. of 19.5k units).
The stock trades at 6.2x/5.8x FY19E/20E consol. EPS. Maintain Buy.
Snapshot of volumes for Nov-17
YoY
Company Sales
Tata Motors
HCV's
LCV's
CV's
Cars
UV's
MoM
YoY (%)
MoM
Nov-17 Nov-16
FY18YTD FY17YTD
Oct-17
chg
(%) chg
57,391
17,517
22,570
40,087
11,239
6,065
38,900
11,504
14,326
25,830
11,768
1,302
47.5
52.3
57.5
55.2
-4.5
365.8
56,065
16,500
22,961
39,461
11,403
5,201
2.4
6.2
-1.7
1.6
-1.4
16.6
376,469
106,262
153,206
259,468
90,774
26,227
(%)
chg
Residual Residual FY18 YTD
Growth Monthly Monthly
FY18
Gr. (%)
Run rate Run rate
(%)
estimate
580,688
174,193
227,240
401,433
137,014
42,240
7.1
-0.9
8.7
4.3
0.0
106.6
6.4
-1.0
4.6
1.9
5.4
82.2
51,055
16,983
18,509
35,491
11,560
4,003
47,059
13,283
19,151
32,433
11,347
3,278
350,311 7.5
107,265 -0.9
138,247 10.8
245,512 5.7
93,144 -2.5
11,655 125.0
1 December 2017
3

Automobiles | Update
EICHER Motors
CMP: INR29,303
Stock Info
Bloomberg
EIM IN
Equity Shares (m)
27.2
M.Cap.(INR b)/(USD b)
644.0/9.6
52-Week Range (INR) 29983/18006
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
6/8/37
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E MARCH 2018E 2019E 2020E
Net Income
88.8 107.2 126.9
EBITDA
28.2
35.4
43.3
Net Profit
22.2
28.9
36.3
Adj. EPS (INR) 814.7 1,062.7 1,334.6
EPS Gr. (%)
33.0
30.4
25.6
BV/Sh. (INR) 2,603 3,463 4,567
RoE (%)
35.7
35.0
33.2
RoCE (%)
32.0
32.1
31.2
Payout (%)
0.5
0.6
0.7
Valuations
P/E (x)
36.0
27.6
22.0
P/BV (x)
11.3
8.5
6.4
EV/EBITDA
(x)
22.7
17.7
14.0
TP: INR34,722 (+18.5%)
Buy
RE (+22.4% YoY) below est.; VECV (+54.1% YoY) in-line
RE dispatches at 70.1k units (est. 72.5k units)
RE volumes increased 22.4% YoY to 70,126 units (below est. of 72,500 units).
VECV's overall volumes increased 54.1% YoY to 4.7k units (in-line).
Domestic LMD and HD segments grew 72.5% YoY and 124.3% YoY, respectively. Buses
volume grew 7% YoY.
VECV exports were flat YoY at 665 units (est. of 780 units).
The stock trades at 27.6x/22x FY19E/FY20E EPS. Maintain Buy.
Snapshot of volumes for Nov-17
YoY
Company Sales
Royal Enfield
VECV
Domestic LMD
Domestic HD
Domestic Buses
Total Domestic
Exports
Nov-17 Nov-16
70,126 57,313
4,727 3,067
2,501 1,450
1,025
457
536
501
4,062 2,408
665
659
MoM
YoY (%)
MoM
Oct-17
chg
(%) chg
22.4 69,492
0.9
54.1
5,166
-8.5
72.5
2,903
-13.8
124.3 1,051
-2.5
7.0
509
5.3
68.7
4,463
-9.0
0.9
703
-5.4
Residual Residual FY18 YTD
Growth Monthly Monthly
(%)
FY18
FY18YTD FY17YTD
Gr. (%)
(%)
Run rate Run rate
chg estimate
526,483 430,864 22.2 828,730
24.3
28.3
75,562 65,810
36,165 36,579 -1.1
60,662
3.9
12.2
6,124
4,521
18,051 16,615
8.6
27,989
8.0
6.9
2,485
2,256
6,312
6,674
-5.4
10,887
-2.0
3.2
1,144
789
6,691
7,837 -14.6 11,700
-4.6
13.0
1,252
836
31,054 31,126 -0.2
50,576
0.2
1.0
4,881
3,882
5,111
5,453
-6.3
8,922
11.0
47.6
953
639
1 December 2017
4

Automobiles | Update
Ashok Leyland
CMP: INR120
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INR b)/ (USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
AL IN
2,845.9
254.0/3.8
112 / 74
3/3/-29
TP: INR134 (+11.9%)
Buy
Vols. up 51% to 14.5k (above est. of 11.7k)
MHCVs grew 53.6%, while LCVs increased 44.3% YoY
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E MARCH 2018E 2019E 2020E
Sales
244.0 289.2 340.3
EBITDA
24.1 30.8
37.7
NP
13.1 18.2
24.0
Adj. EPS (INR)
4.5
6.2
8.2
EPS Gr. (%)
-1.5 38.7
31.9
BV/Sh. (INR)
23.0 26.5
31.7
RoE (%)
20.4 25.2
28.2
RoCE (%)
17.4 21.2
24.3
Payout (%)
44.6 36.2
30.5
Valuations
P/E (x)
26.7 19.3
14.6
P/BV (x)
5.2
4.5
3.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 14.1 10.6
8.1
Div. Yield (%)
1.7
1.9
2.1
AL’s Nov-17 wholesale dispatches were at 14,460 units (+51% YoY).
M&HCV volumes, which account for 73.6% of total volumes, grew 53.6% YoY (+16.8%
MoM) to 10,641 units (est. of 8,200 units).
LCVs (Dost) grew 44.3% YoY to 3,819 units (est. of 3,500 units).
The stock trades at 19.3x/14.6x FY19E/FY20E EPS, and at 10.6/8.1x EV/EBITDA.
Maintain Buy.
Snapshot of volumes for Nov-17
YoY
Company Sales
Ashok Leyland
CV (ex LCV)
LCV
Nov-17 Nov-16
14,460
10,641
3,819
9,574
6,928
2,646
MoM
YoY (%)
MoM
(%)
Oct-17
FY18YTD FY17YTD
chg
(%) chg
chg
51.0 12,914 12.0
96,843 86,713 11.7
53.6
9,110
16.8
71,014 65,870
7.8
44.3
3,804
0.4
25,829 20,843
24
Residual
Growth
FY18
Gr. (%)
(%)
estimate
163,988
13.0
15.1
121,901
7.6
7.3
42,087
32.5
48.7
Residual FY18 YTD
Monthly Monthly
Run rate Run rate
16,786 12,105
12,722
8,877
4,065
3,229
1 December 2017
5

Automobiles | Update
TVS Motor
CMP: INR 724
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INR b)/ (USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
TP: INR764 (+5.5%)
Neutral
TVSL IN
475.1
Domestic sales grew by 6.6%, Exports grew by 43.8%
235.5/3.7
549 / 280
TVS Motor’s Sep-17 sales were at 252k units (12% YoY; below est. of 285k units).
4/31/69
At 252k (+12% YoY), volumes below est. of 285k
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E MARCH 2018E 2019E 2020E
Sales
149.8 186.6 223.7
EBITDA
11.6 18.9
24.7
Adj. PAT
7.1 12.3
16.6
EPS (INR)
14.9 25.8
34.9
EPS Gr. (%)
27.0 73.1
35.0
BV/Sh (INR)
62.0 83.0 111.9
RoE (%)
26.5 35.6
35.8
RoCE (%)
26.8 38.7
42.4
Payout (%)
24.2 18.6
17.2
Valuations
P/E (x)
48.6 28.0
20.8
P/BV (x)
11.7
8.7
6.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 30.5 18.4
13.7
Div. Yield (%)
0.4
0.6
0.7
Domestic volumes grew by 6.6% YoY, while exports (19% of volumes) grew 43.8% YoY.
Scooter volumes increased by 7.2% YoY to 78.4k units (est. of 100k units).
Mopeds dispatches declined 8.1% YoY to 71.7k units (est. of 72k units).
Motorcycle volumes grew 37.3% YoY to 93.2k units (est. of 105k units).
3Ws volumes increased 46.9% YoY, led by growth in domestic sales and exports.
Total exports grew 43.8% YoY, led by growth in 2W and 3W exports.
The stock trades at 28x/20.8x FY19E/FY20E EPS. Maintain Neutral.
Snapshot of volumes for Nov-17
YoY
Company Sales
Nov-17 Nov-16
TVS Motor
251,965 224,971
Motorcycles
93,202 67,896
Scooters
78,397 73,135
Mopeds
71,724 78,057
Three-Wheelers 8,642
5,883
Total Domestic 204,758 192,142
Total Exports
47,207 32,829
MoM
YoY (%)
MoM
Oct-17
chg
(%) chg
12.0 317,411 -20.6
37.3 125,409 -25.7
7.2 106,910 -26.7
-8.1
76,045
-5.7
46.9
9,047
-4.5
6.6 271,974 -24.7
43.8 45,437
3.9
(%)
chg
2,320,068 2,064,187 12.4
913,938 803,957 13.7
771,212 591,321 30.4
574,944 620,483 -7.3
59,974
48,426 23.8
1,954,665 1,780,709 9.8
365,403 283,478 28.9
FY18YTD FY17YTD
Residual Residual FY18 YTD
Growth Monthly Monthly
FY18
Gr. (%)
(%)
Run rate Run rate
estimate
3,496,553 19.6
37.0 294,121 290,009
1,345,018 25.4
60.5 107,770 114,242
1,182,462 35.8
47.1 102,812 96,402
873,915
-4.0
3.1
74,743 71,868
95,158
37.4
68.9
8,796
7,497
2,905,287 16.3
32.3 237,656 244,333
591,266
38.9
58.7
56,466 45,675
1 December 2017
6

Automobiles | Update
Bajaj Auto
CMP: INR3,213
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
BJAUT IN
289.4
3122/2366
2/-6/0
TP: INR4,197 (+30.6%)
Buy
Nov-17 dispatches at 326.5k (below est. of 350k)
Domestic volume rises 16.4% YoY; exports grow 27% YoY
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 840.6/13.1
Financial & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E MARCH 2018E 2019E 2020E
Sales
246
282
322
EBITDA
46.6 58.0 67.2
Consol. NP
45.0 54.4 62.8
ConsEPS(INR) 155
188
217
EPS Gr. (%)
10.2 20.9 15.6
BV/Sh. (INR)
656
743
847
RoE (%)
25.0 26.8 27.3
RoCE (%)
22.7 24.6 34.5
50.3 48.0 47.0
Payout (%)
Valuation
20.7 17.1 14.8
P/E (x)
4.9
4.3
3.8
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x) 16.6 13.0 10.8
2.0
2.3
2.6
Div. Yield (%)
BJAUT’s Nov-17 sales at 326.5k units (below est. of 350k units) were higher by 20.9%
YoY. Domestic volume increased by 16.4% YoY to 179.8k (est. 210k), while exports
increased 27% YoY to 146.6k (est. of 140k). Overall FY18 volume estimate stands at
3.98m, implying a residual monthly run-rate of 328k units.
Overall motorcycle volumes increased by 11% YoY. Domestic motorcycle dispatches
increased by 2% YoY to 141.9k. Motorcycle exports grew ~25% YoY to 122k units.
S Ravikumar said “Current market share in domestic bike segment is close to 19
percent and we are targeting domestic share of 22-23 percent by March 2018.”
3W volumes witnessed a recovery, with overall volumes growing 94.1% YoY. Domestic
3W volumes continued their positive growth trajectory, clocking highest-ever
dispatches at 37.9k units (+157% YoY). 3W exports at 24.6k units grew 41% YoY.
The stock trades at 17.1x/14.8x FY19E/20E consol. EPS. Maintain Buy.
Snapshot of volumes for Nov-17
YoY
Company Sales
Bajaj Auto
Motorcycles
Total Two-Wheelers
Three-Wheelers
Domestic
Exports
Nov-17 Nov-16
326,458
263,970
263,970
62,488
179,835
146,623
269,948
237,757
237,757
32,191
154,523
115,425
YoY
(%)
chg
20.9
11.0
11.0
94.1
16.4
27.0
MoM
MoM
Oct-17 (%)
chg
382,464 -14.6
325,778 -19.0
325,778 -19.0
56,686 10.2
247,210 -27.3
135,254 8.4
FY18YTD
2,668,866
2,284,183
2,284,183
384,683
1,574,889
1,093,977
Residual Residual FY18 YTD
(%)
FY18
Gr. Growth Monthly Monthly
FY17YTD
(%)
Run rate Run rate
chg estimate (%)
2,652,708
2,315,603
2,315,603
337,105
1,671,316
981,392
0.6
-1.4
-1.4
14.1
-5.8
11.5
3,981,186
3,418,427
3,418,427
562,759
2,351,677
1,629,509
8.6
6.2
6.2
26.2
4
15.5
29.5
25.4
25.4
63.5
33.2
24.6
328,080
283,561
283,561
44,519
194,197
133,883
333,608
285,523
285,523
48,085
196,861
136,747
1 December 2017
7

Automobiles | Update
Hero MotoCorp
CMP: INR3,607
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INR b)/ (USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel.Per (%)
HMCL IN
199.7
635/9.5
3813 / 2844
9/-1/4
TP: INR3,819 (+5.9%)
Neutral
Volumes up 26% YoY at 605k units (est. of 590k)
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E MARCH 2018E 2019E 2020E
Sales
317.2 342.6 375.3
EBITDA
51.8 53.9
58.8
NP
36.6 38.7
42.7
Adj. EPS (INR) 183.1 193.9 213.3
EPS Gr. (%)
8.3
5.9
10.0
BV/Sh. (INR) 580.9 666.4 769.6
RoE (%)
33.7 31.1
29.7
RoCE (%)
32.5 30.1
28.9
Valuations
P/E (x)
19.7 18.6
16.9
P/BV (x)
6.2
5.4
4.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 12.4 11.8
10.6
Div. Yield (%)
2.5
2.5
2.5
HMCL’s November-17 volumes of 605,270 units (+26.1% YoY) came in above our
estimate of 590,000.
Our FY18 total volume estimate is 7.56m units, implying a monthly residual run-rate of
613k units.
Strong volumes growth can be ascribed to robust demand during the ongoing wedding
season in the northern belt and a favorable base of last year (impact of
demonetization).
HMCL trades at 18.6/16.9x FY19E/20E EPS. Maintain Neutral.
Snapshot of volumes for Nov-17
YoY
MoM
YoY (%)
MoM
(%)
Company Sales Nov-17 Nov-16
Oct-17
FY18YTD FY17YTD
chg
(%) chg
chg
Hero MotoCorp 605,270 479,856 26.1 631,105 -4.1 5,108,555 4,711,896 8.4
Residual
Growth
FY18
Gr. (%)
(%)
estimate
7,560,559 13.5
25.6
Residual
Monthly
Run rate
613,001
FY18 YTD
Monthly
Run rate
638,569
1 December 2017
8

Automobiles | Update
NOTES
1 December 2017
9

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Automobiles | Update
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