E
CO
S
COPE
Economic activity weakened in October 2017
Investments stagnated and net imports widened
4 December 2017
The Economy Observer
India’s monthly economic activity index (EAI) grew at 2.1% YoY in October 2017, the slowest in four months. The
average growth in 2QFY18 was 5% YoY. High base and continued decline in fiscal spending led to the weaker growth.
While the deceleration was broad-based, stagnancy in investments – driven primarily by renewed weakness in
construction activities and imports of capital goods – was the key driver of slower headline growth. As exports
contracted for the first time in 15 months, net imports also acted as a serious drag on EAI growth.
Consumption index grew decently at ~5% YoY in October 2017, driven by 11-month high growth in passenger traffic.
Fiscal spending, however, contracted for the second consecutive month.
Overall, we believe that real GVA growth could fall below 6% again in 3QFY18 before recovering to ~6.5% in 4QFY18. It
implies real GDP growth of ~6% in 3Q and ~7% in 4QFY18.
Preliminary estimates
reveal that economic
activity grew only 2.1% YoY
in October 2017, marking its
slowest growth in four
months
We expect real GVA to grow
sub-6% again in 3QFY18,
which implies real GDP
growth of 6.1%, down from
6.3% in 2QFY18
India’s economic activity slowed sharply in October 2017…:
Preliminary
estimates reveal that India’s economic activity grew only 2.1% YoY in October
2017, marking its slowest growth in four months
(Exhibit 1).
A look at sub-
components shows that while the deceleration was broad-based, weak
investments and higher net imports dragged EAI growth in October
(Exhibit 2).
…driven by stagnancy in investments and net imports:
As against an average
growth of ~5% in 2QFY18, leading indicators confirm that investments stagnated
in October 2017
(Exhibit 3).
A look at key components reveals that construction
activities declined again in October 2017, along with imports of capital goods,
which drove down growth in investments
(Exhibit 8
for the heat map). Further,
while exports contracted for the first time in 15 months, imports grew decently,
due to which net imports acted as a significant drag on EAI growth in October
2017
(Exhibit 4).
Consumption, however, grew decently:
Our index for consumption activity, on
the other hand, grew 4.8% YoY in October 2017, slower than in September but
similar to the growth in previous months
(Exhibit 5).
Details confirm that it was
primarily driven by fiscal spending (revenue spending
less
interest payments),
which declined for the second consecutive month in October 2017. Passenger
traffic, however, grew at the highest pace in 11 months (see
Exhibit 7
for the
heat map).
Expect real GDP to grow ~6% YoY in 3QFY18:
Overall, economic activity
witnessed a broad-based weakness in October 2017, as the index grew only
2.1% versus ~5% in 2QFY18. Although there is no one-to-one correlation
between our EAI and official GDP due to
underlying differences,
our EAI moves
in sync with real GDP (ex-discrepancies) estimates
(Exhibit 6).
Accordingly, we
expect real GVA to grow at sub-6% again in 3QFY18, which implies real GDP
growth of 6.1%, down from 6.3% in 2QFY18.
Note: Preliminary estimates of Economic Activity Index (EAI) for the month prior to the recently concluded month
are released in the first 1-2 business days of every month. So, October’s EAI is released today.
Nikhil Gupta – Research Analyst
(Nikhil.Gupta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5405
Rahul Agrawal
– Research Analyst
(Rahul.Agrawal@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3982 5445
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Exhibit 1: India’s economic activity slowed to 4-month
slowest growth in October 2017…
% YoY
10
8
5
3
0
(3)
Oct-16
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Please refer to our earlier
report
for details
3-mma
Economic Activity Index
Exhibit 2: …pulled by stagnant investments and high net
imports (percentage point)
Consumption
1.5
7.4
(0.1)
1.3
2.9
(1.4)
1.9
4.5
0.1
3.5
(1.4)
Sep-17
Oct-17
Investment
1.5
Net exports
EAI
Oct-16
Aug-17
Shows contribution of different components to EAI’s growth
Exhibit 3: MOLI for investments grew only 0.2% YoY in
October 2017…
% YoY
9
6
3
0
(3)
(6)
Oct-16
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
3mma
MOLI: Investment
Exhibit 4: …and net imports rose sharply due to sharp
contraction in exports (% YoY)
60
42
24
6
(12)
(30)
Exports
Imports
Exhibit 5: Consumption, however, continued to grow
decently in October
% YoY
16
12
8
4
0
Oct-16
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Source: CEIC, Various official sources, MOSL
3mma
MOLI: Consumption
Exhibit 6: Our composite EAI shares a very strong
correlation with real GDP growth (% YoY)
14
11
7
4
0
Q2FY03
Composite EAI
Real GDP*
Q2FY06
Q2FY09
Q2FY12
Q2FY15
Q2FY18
* Excluding discrepancies
4-quarter moving average
4 December 2017
2

Exhibit 7: Key leading indicators for consumption
% YoY
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
1
Passenger
traffic
1
(0.7)
7.2
(1.2)
1.7
(0.5)
2.4
2.3
2.9
1.6
2.0
(2.2)
(1.2)
3.1
Revenue
spending
2
52.7
15.9
(8.0)
33.0
22.0
(49.3)
54.9
69.1
(22.5)
13.8
1.1
(7.7)
(20.6)
Petrol
sales
13.8
14.3
7.9
(0.6)
3.1
2.9
4.5
15.4
11.9
11.8
(0.7)
17.8
5.5
Rural
wages
3
1.7
2.4
2.9
3.0
2.8
2.4
3.1
4.0
3.8
4.6
3.5
3.5
3.0
7
Consumer
durable: IIP
1.5
6.8
(5.0)
(2.0)
(4.6)
(0.6)
(0.7)
0.6
(3.5)
(3.6)
3.4
(4.8)
3.6
7
Currency
17.2
(23.6)
(39.9)
(37.8)
(30.3)
(19.7)
(16.7)
(14.2)
(11.6)
(10.8)
(10.0)
(8.1)
(8.0)
2
Auto
sales
4
8.1
(4.7)
(18.6)
(4.2)
1.3
1.7
8.3
11.5
2.0
13.9
14.6
9.3
(2.4)
Imports
2.5
0.9
(0.4)
0.9
9.4
22.9
15.1
7.7
5.2
4.2
11.6
18.3
(3.8)
5
Foreign
tourists
arrival
6
8.6
7.6
11.9
16.4
12.7
11.8
25.0
19.5
22.5
7.4
11.0
18.9
18.1
Personal
credit
17.0
15.2
13.5
12.9
12.0
16.4
14.4
13.7
14.1
15.0
15.7
16.8
16.0
Services
PMI
54.5
46.7
46.8
48.7
50.3
51.5
50.2
52.2
53.1
45.9
47.5
50.7
51.7
Railways and aviation
Excluding interest payments (only for central government)
3
4
Real rural wages; deflated by CPI for rural workers
Includes passenger vehicles and two-wheelers
5
Imports of agricultural items, leather products, newsprint and electronic goods, textiles (excluding gold, silver, precious metals)
7
6
In persons unit
Our forecasts for October 2017
Exhibit 8: Key leading indicators for investment
% YoY
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
1
Cargo
traffic
1
2.8
6.7
4.7
1.5
2.3
8.3
5.2
4.3
3.4
3.8
4.7
4.9
2.9
Electricity
3.0
9.5
6.4
5.2
1.2
6.2
5.3
8.2
2.2
6.6
8.3
3.4
2.1
Auto
sales
2
8.3
(18.3)
(19.1)
(12.1)
(4.7)
(3.6)
(20.7)
(13.6)
(10.6)
2.0
13.1
22.4
9.3
Diesel
sales
5.2
10.6
1.2
(7.7)
(3.8)
0.3
3.0
8.1
6.5
8.5
(3.5)
16.6
(1.9)
Capital
goods’
imports
3
32.2
(11.3)
5.1
1.8
(24.8)
(4.6)
36.4
(0.9)
7.6
1.4
8.5
(1.5)
(17.5)
Cement
Production
6.2
0.5
(8.7)
(13.3)
(15.8)
(6.8)
(5.2)
(1.4)
(3.3)
1.0
0.7
0.1
(2.7)
IIP: Non-
metallic
products
2.8
1.2
(8.1)
(11.6)
(12.6)
(3.7)
(2.4)
(1.6)
(5.5)
(2.7)
(2.1)
(4.5)
(4.3)
7
IIP:
Capital
goods
(4.7)
5.3
(6.2)
(0.6)
(2.4)
9.4
(4.8)
(1.6)
(6.1)
(1.3)
5.2
7.4
6.6
2
7
Industrial
credit
(1.7)
(3.4)
(4.3)
(5.1)
(5.2)
(1.9)
(1.4)
(2.1)
(1.1)
(0.3)
(0.3)
(0.4)
(0.2)
Govt
capex
4
(165.7)
11.5
32.8
7.2
25.8
115.7
37.7
92.4
0.2
20.2
(27.6)
(15.7)
n/d
Manufacturing
PMI
54.4
52.3
49.6
50.4
50.7
52.5
52.5
51.6
50.9
47.9
51.2
51.2
50.3
Includes railways and waterways
3 Capital spending by central government
5
Our forecasts for October 2017
Source: Various National Sources, CEIC, MoSL
Include commercial vehicles and three-wheelers
4 Machinery & equipment, transport equipment, machine tools and project goods
n/d = not defined, Capex was negative in October 2016
Worse than previous month and a year ago
Better than the previous month but worse than a year ago
Worse than the previous month but better than a year ago
Better than previous month and a year ago
4 December 2017
3

Leading indicators for consumption: Decent growth continued in October 2017
Exhibit 9: Consumer auto sales declined for the first time in
nine months (% YoY)…
Auto sales#
Exhibit 10: …but petrol consumption grew reasonably in
October 2017 (% YoY)
Petrol sales
(2.4)
# Includes passenger vehicles and two-wheelers
Exhibit 11: Expect real rural wages to continue to grow
decently (% YoY)
Real rural wages
Exhibit 12: Passenger traffic growth was, however, the
fastest in 11 months in October 2017 (% YoY)
Passenger traffic
3.0
4.9
Oct-17 is our estimate
Deflated by CPI for rural workers
Railways + Aviation
Exhibit 13: Central government’s revenue spending declined
for second consecutive month in October 2017 (% YoY)…
Central government's core revenue spending
Exhibit 14: …and consumption-based imports also declined
for the first time in 2017 (% YoY)
Consumption based imports
(8.7)
(3.8)
Revenue spending excluding interest payments
Octomber-17 is our estimate
Imports of agricultural items, leather products, newsprint and
electronic goods, textiles
4 December 2017
4

Exhibit 15: Foreign tourist arrivals continued to grow
strongly in October 2017 (% YoY)
Foreign tourist arrivals
Exhibit 16: Production of consumer durable goods is
expected to rise in October (% YoY)
IIP: Consumer durables
18.1
3.6
In persons
October-17 is our estimate
Exhibit 17: Personal credit growth remained strong in
October 2017 (% YoY)…
Personal credit
Exhibit 18: …and PMI for services witnessed stronger
recovery (above 50)
56
(Index)
PMI: Services
16.0
52
49
45
51.7
October-17 is our estimate
An index of 50 implies no change
Exhibit 19: We expect consumer non-durable goods IIP to
remain in positive territory (% YoY)…
IIP: Consumer non-durable goods
Exhibit 20: …and food production IIP is also expected to
remain in positive zone (% YoY)
IIP: Food products
9.0
2.9
Octber-17 is our estimate
October-17 is our estimate
4 December 2017
5

Leading indicators for investment: Growth disappeared in October 2017
Exhibit 21: Cargo traffic grows modestly in October 2017…
(% YoY)
Cargo traffic
Exhibit 22: …while power generation rises by just 2.1%
(% YoY)
Electricity production
2.9
2.1
Railways + ports
Exhibit 23: Industrial credit declined for 13 consecutive
month in October 2017…
Industrial credit
th
Exhibit 24: …while growth in industrial auto sales also eased
down (% YoY)
Auto sales
(% YoY)
(0.2)
Include commercial vehicles and three-wheelers
Exhibit 25: Construction activity declined for eleventh
consecutive month in October 2017 (% YoY)…
Construction
Exhibit 26: …and capital spending by central government
was better (% YoY)
Central government's capital spending
(3.4)
not
defined*
Cement production & IIP for Non-mineral metallic products (NMMP)
October-17 data for IIP: NMMP is our estimate
* Since it was a negative number in October 2016
Source: CEIC, Various official sources, MOSL
4 December 2017
6

Exhibit 27: Diesel sales also declined again in October 2017…
(% YoY)
Diesel sales
Exhibit 28: … while imports of capital goods declined sharply
Capital goods' imports
(1.9)
(% YoY)
(17.5)
Machinery & equipment, transport equipment, machine tools and
project goods
Exhibit 29: Expect IIP for capital goods to surge in October
2017 on account of a low base (% YoY)
IIP: Capital goods
Exhibit 30: Manufacturing PMI slowed at 50.3 in October
2017 (Index)
56
54
(Index)
Manufacturing PMI
6.6
52
50
48
50.3
October-17 is our estimate
An index of 50 implies no change
Exhibit 31: Cement production declined for the first time in
four months (% YoY)…
Cement production
Exhibit 32: …while manufacturing IIP is expected to grow at
similar pace in October 2017 (% YoY)
IIP: Manufacturing
3.8
(2.7)
October-17 is our estimate
4 December 2017
7

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functions as a separate, distinct and independent of each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document. This report has been prepared on the basis of information that is already
available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of MOSL. The views expressed are those of the analyst, and the Company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed therein. This document is
being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This report is not
directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would
be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject MOSL to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to
certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. Neither the Firm, not its directors, employees, agents or
representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information.
The
person accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt MOSL or any of its affiliates or employees from, any and all responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not to hold MOSL or any of its affiliates or
employees responsible for any such misuse and further agrees to hold MOSL or any of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses, costs, damages, expenses that may be suffered by the person accessing this
information due to any errors and delays.
Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022-3980 4263; www.motilaloswal.com. Correspondence Address: Palm Spring
Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 3080 1000. Compliance Officer: Neeraj Agarwal, Email Id:
na@motilaloswal.com,
Contact No.:022-30801085.
Registration details of group entities.: MOSL: SEBI Registration: INZ000158836; CDSL: IN-DP-16-2015; NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-152-2000; Research Analyst: INH000000412. AMFI: ARN 17397. Investment Adviser: INA000007100.
Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670) offers PMS and Mutual Funds products. Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.:
INP000004409) offers wealth management solutions. *Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs, Insurance and IPO products. * Motilal Oswal Commodities Broker Pvt. Ltd.
offers
4 December 2017
Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. offers Real Estate products. * Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd. offers Private Equity products
Commodities Products. *
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