23 June 2020
4QFY20 Results Update | Sector: Oil & Gas
Aegis Logistics
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
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CMP: INR199
TP: INR245 (+23%)
Buy
Normalcy to return in 2HFY21; strong growth likely in FY22
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E March
2020 2021E
Sales
71.8
77.4
EBITDA
2.8
5.9
Adj. PAT
1.0
3.5
Adj. EPS (INR)
3.0
10.4
EPS Gr.%
BV/Sh.INR
Ratios
Net D:E
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Payout (%)
Valuation
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Div. Yld (%)
FCF Yld (%)
-55.0
49.5
0.0
6.5
9.0
65.6
66.3
4.0
23.7
0.9
-4.2
247.4
57.6
-0.2
19.3
20.2
22.3
19.1
3.4
10.7
1.0
6.0
AGIS IN
334
67.5 / 0.9
267 / 108
2/33/5
40
2022E
91.1
6.8
4.1
12.4
19.7
67.2
-0.3
19.9
20.5
22.3
15.9
2.9
8.6
1.2
8.0
Higher-than-estimated other expenditure, combined with lower LPG throughput,
led to an EBITDA miss during the quarter. Due to COVID-19-led lockdown, LPG
logistics volumes were down 24% QoQ (up by a mere 3% YoY). The company kept
LPG terminals operational during lockdown to fulfill higher LPG demand.
Despite the impact of the shutdown witnessed in the quarter, LPG distribution
volumes were up 13% QoQ (+49% YoY), primarily aided by a surge in LPG cylinder
volumes (45% YoY) and LPG industrial volumes (+66% YoY). This was supported by
expansion in the company’s distribution network.
For FY20, the company recorded LPG logistics volumes growth of 20% YoY, and
LPG distribution volumes growth was up 44% YoY.
According to management, due to economic slowdown, expect the Liquids
segment’s volume to be flattish YoY in FY21. On the other hand, expect a boost in
gas volumes in 2HFY21 from the Uran-Chakan pipeline and Pipavav Railway Gantry.
With some minimal delay in project developments led by nationwide lockdowns,
the company is still expected to see gas throughput jump ~1.0mmtpa over the
next two years (on base of 3.0mmtpa in FY20).
We remain positive on the company’s Gas division and reiterate Buy.
EBITDA miss led by higher other expenditure
AGIS reported 4QFY20 EBITDA of INR930m (-10% YoY), 29% below est., on
higher other expenditure and lower LPG throughput.
The company recognized ESOP expenses of INR0.4b (in addition to INR1.9b
for 9MFY20). It continues to take an INR20m commission provision toward
the managing directors (in addition to INR60m for 9MFY20) in the other
expenses for the quarter.
Other income came in higher than estimated, resulting in PBT of INR860m
(flat YoY and QoQ). Tax rate for the quarter stood at 45.8% as the company
adopted the new lower tax rate (by realizing deferred tax assets).
PAT for the quarter stood at INR341m (-45% YoY).
EBITDA for Liquids increased 28% YoY to INR370m and EBITDA for Gas
increased 37% YoY to INR1,220m in the quarter.
Autogas volumes decreased 6% QoQ to 6.8kmt (4% YoY) due to lockdown in
the latter part of March. AGIS operates 115 stations, and the company had
earlier guided for ~200 stations over the next five years.
In FY20, EBITDA stood at INR2.8b (-25% YoY), PBT at INR2.1b (-31% YoY),
and PAT at INR1b (-55% YoY), with the tax rate at 35.5% for the year (due to
DTA benefits).
However, adjusting for ESOPs (of INR2.4b) and commissions (of INR0.8b),
adj. EBITDA was up 41% YoY to INR5.2b and PBT 50% YoY to INR4.5b (due to
higher other income); PAT stood at INR2.9b (+32% YoY).
The Liquids division’s EBITDA grew by 32% YoY to INR1.4b, primarily due to
ramp-up witnessed at the Kandla and Haldia terminals. The Gas division’s
EBITDA grew at 37% to 4.2b, led by a strong performance in the LPG
Logistics segment.
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Promoter
DII
FII
Others
Mar-20 Dec-19 Mar-19
59.6
59.6
60.6
2.7
2.4
2.3
12.5
12.5
12.4
25.3
25.6
24.7
Provisioning for ESOPs hurts bottom line in FY20
FII Includes depository receipts
Swarnendu Bhushan- Research Analyst
(Swarnendu.Bhushan@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1529
Sarfraz Bhimani - Research Analyst
(Sarfraz.Bhimani@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1566
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
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