2 August 2020
1QFY21 Results Update | Sector: Others
TeamLease
Buy
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
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CMP: INR1848
TP: INR2,700 (+46%)
Better-than-expected operational metrics
Cautiously optimistic outlook
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2020 2021E
Sales
52
49
EBIT Margin (%)
1.3
1.8
PAT
0.8
1.0
EPS (INR)
48.9
57.7
EPS Gr. (%)
-14.7
18.1
BV/Sh. (INR)
335
392
Ratios
RoE (%)
15.0
15.9
RoCE (%)
5.8
14.0
Payout (%)
0
0
Valuations
P/E (x)
37.8
32.0
P/BV (x)
5.5
4.7
EV/EBITDA (x)
34.2
24.7
Div Yield (%)
0
0
TEAM IN
17
31.6 / 0.4
3192 / 1421
2/-21/-31
54
2022E
63
2.0
1.4
83.8
Lower-than-expected headcount decline; strong beat on margins
45.1
476
TeamLease reported revenue/EBIT/PAT growth of -9%/-4%/-9% YoY v/s our
19.3
17.3
0
22.1
3.9
17.7
0
General Staffing headcount decline (10% QoQ) in 1QFY21 came in lower
than initially expected (16–20% QoQ). Moreover, the segment
outperformed that of Quess (~15% QoQ decline). Despite the pressure on
mark-ups in the industry, it was impressive that realizations remained stable.
Aggressive cost rationalization enabled the company to report a strong beat
on margins. Stability in the share of working capital funded clients (14% of
the portfolio) and healthy cash conversion (OCF/EBITDA = 80%) are other
key positives.
The Government Training & Development and Permanent Recruitment
segments have been a drag on margins, receivables, and cash conversion for
some time. In this context, restructuring in these businesses is a key positive
and should unlock management bandwidth. Even as the management is
cautiously optimistic on prospects of growth recovery, we expect a good
rebound in General Staffing headcount over the next two quarters. In
conjunction with the aggressive cost rationalization measures in place, we
expect strong EBIT margin expansion (50bp to 1.8%) in FY21E.
Operationally, our estimates remain largely unchanged. We expect a ~31%
PAT CAGR over FY20–22E. Our DCF-based TP of INR2,700 implies 32x FY22E
EPS. Reiterate
Buy.
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Promoter
DII
FII
Others
Jun-20 Mar-20 Jun-19
40.0
40.0
40.3
14.5
10.5
7.0
40.0
41.0
45.1
5.5
8.5
7.6
FII Includes depository receipts
estimate of 0%/-25%/-11%.
Overall revenue was below our estimates as decline in Other HR Services
was higher than our expectations.
In General Staffing, headcount declined just 10% QoQ (v/s ~15% for Quess)
and revenue ~14% QoQ (v/s 22% for Quess). Overall headcount (incl.
trainees) declined ~14% QoQ.
Revenue from Specialized Staffing was resilient (-5% QoQ). However,
revenue from Other HR Services declined by more than half (~57% QoQ) as
the company is undergoing a planned exit from some of these services.
Overall EBITDA margins expanded ~70bp QoQ, led by aggressive cost
rationalization. Across segments, margin expansion during the quarter was
driven by IT Staffing.
Realizations in General Staffing remained stable despite the markup
pressure in the industry. While the company offered price concessions in
some mandates, the impact was offset by the addition of a higher markup
business during the quarter.
The company rationalized core employee headcount across segments. The
highest impact was seen in HR Services as it exits some parts of this segment
(Permanent Recruitment and Government Training).
While EBIT was ~28% above our estimates, lower-than-expected other
income led to largely in-line PAT.
TeamLease maintained working capital funding exposure at 14% of overall
general staffing operations. Cash conversion improved to 80%.
Sudheer Guntupalli – Research analyst
(Sudheer.Guntupalli@MotilalOswal.com)
Research analyst: Mohit Sharma
(Mohit.Sharma@MotilalOswal.com) /
Heenal Gada
(Heenal.Gada@MotilalOswal.com)
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.