9 August 2020
1QFY21 Results Update | Sector: Financials
Aditya Birla Capital
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
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CMP: INR59
TP: INR86 (+46%)
Focus on retailization; Asset quality stable
Buy
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
ABCAP IN
2,414
142.7 / 1.9
115 / 37
-15/-30/-34
241
Aditya Birla Capital (ABCAP) reported 26% YoY decline in PAT to INR2.0b,
largely driven by ~50% decline in PBT to INR2.2b for the lending businesses.
In the NBFC segment, the quarter was characterized by the continued run-
down of loans (especially wholesale lending) and INR500m COVID-19-
related provisions. In the AMC segment, PAT was largely stable sequentially
despite 14% QoQ decline in AAUM. The Life Insurance segment reported
5% YoY growth in individual first-year premium (FYP), compared with 23%
YoY decline for the industry.
We expect the company to focus on strengthening the balance sheet,
liquidity, and cost cutting. While profits in the Lending segment would
remain muted in FY21, they would be compensated by better performance
in other segments. Maintain Buy, with TP of INR86 (FY22E SOTP-based).
Similar to the trend in the past three quarters, the loan book declined 2%
QoQ to INR459b, driven by corporate loans. Over the past year, the
corporate loan book has run down by 12%, driven by the halving of the
structured finance book. The only product where the corporate loan book
has been stable YoY is project loans.
28% of the NBFC loan book is under moratorium, down from 33% in April.
Only 15% of the moratorium book was 30dpd+ in the three months prior to
the lockdown. In addition to the INR900m COVID-19 provisions taken in
4QFY20, ABCAP took additional INR500m provisions in 1QFY21. While
management believes the provision buffer is adequate, we expect further
strengthening of the buffer in the ensuing quarters.
In the Housing Finance business, 28% of the retail book is under
moratorium; this is in line with some peers such as PNBHF.
Among other key details: (a) NBFC margins moderated 10bp QoQ due to
lower yield and the impact of negative carry, (b) the GNPL ratio was stable
at 3.6%, with PCR improving 500bp QoQ to 39%, (c) management expects
50% of GNPL to be recovered/resolved in FY21, (d) the share of retail loans
has increased to 19% YoY from 15%, (e) the HFC loan book has been largely
flat over the past few quarters at ~INR120b, and (f) NBFC disbursements in
July 2020 were close to monthly run-rate levels.
QAAUM declined 14% QoQ to INR2.26t, with the share of equity declining
~100bp QoQ to 32%. The share of SIP AUM in total equities improved
250bp to 41%, thus improving the stickiness of the portfolio.
ABCAP’s SIP
market share stands at 10.3%.
While revenues were under pressure, they were largely offset by lower
opex. Hence, PAT was largely stable QoQ at INR970m.
In fact, the PBT
margin actually improved 2bp QoQ to 24bp despite the lower share of
equity AUM – 4QFY20 saw MTM impact of INR200m in other income.
Lending business – 28% of loans under moratorium
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E March
2020 2021E 2022E
PBT Break-up
NBFC
10.7
8.2 10.2
Housing
1.4
1.5
1.8
AMC
6.6
5.8
6.6
Life Insurance
1.4
1.4
1.5
Consol PBT
16.9 16.2 19.8
Consol PAT Post MI
9.2
9.1 11.2
Growth (%)
5.8
-0.7 22.5
RoE (%)
8.3
7.0
7.9
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Jun-20 Mar-20 Jun-19
Promoter
70.5
70.5
72.7
DII
12.6
12.6
8.3
FII
2.2
2.2
2.9
Others
14.8
14.8
16.1
FII Includes depository receipts
AMC segment – PBT margin expands despite lower equity share
Motilal
January
research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
14
Oswal
2020
1
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Research Analyst: Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com) |
Piran Engineer
(Piran.Engineer@MotilalOswal.com)
Nitin Aggarwal
(Nitin.Aggarwal@MotilalOswal.com) |
Divya Maheshwari
(Divya.Maheshwari@motilaloswal.com)
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Aditya Birla Capital
Strong performance in Life Insurance
Individual FYP grew 5% YoY to INR3.1b, far better than the ~25% decline in
individual FYP for the industry as well as the Top 5 players. Over the past year,
ABCAP has focused on the Non-PAR segment, the share of which has increased
from 35% to 48% YoY. The share of ULIPs remains stable at 32%.
The persistency ratio improved in all cohorts – 37
th
/61
st
month persistency ratios
improved 300bp each to 60%/49%. The net VNB margin improved 100bp YoY to
5%.
Highlights from management commentary
ABCAP targets an 8% YoY opex reduction on a consolidated basis in FY21.
It plans to increase the share of retail and SME loans to 50% by year-end from
46% currently. It would add 50–70 new locations to aid growth in the retail
book.
Improvement in the claims ratio in the Health Insurance segment this quarter
(owing to lower elective procedures) is sustainable. Do not expect COVID-19
related claims to impact the profitability of the Health Insurance segment.
In the SME segment, the moratorium rate is higher than average. In wholesale
lending, it is less than 20%, and in unsecured lending, it is less than 15%.
Valuation and view
The past four to six quarters have been challenging for the company, with the run-
down of the loan book and emergence of asset quality stress due to certain large-
ticket accounts.
Over the past quarter, the moratorium rate saw modest decline to
28% from 33%.
However, the key monitorable is how this portfolio behaves once it
is free of moratorium in September. We expect provisioning to remain elevated in
FY21.
The Asset Management business is likely to have a muted year as the
industry combats redemption pressure in equities, along with slowing SIPs. A
reduction in operating expenses would be key to maintaining profitability.
The Life
Insurance segment is on a robust trajectory.
The business continues to witness
improved performance on persistency as well as VNB margins.
We expect some
moderation in consolidated PAT in FY21E and a gradual pickup in FY22E, and expect
7–8% consol. RoE over the medium term. Buy, with TP of INR86 (FY22E SOTP-based).
Exhibit 1: SOTP (Mar’22E-based)
NBFC
HFC
AMC
LI
Others
Target Value
Current market cap.
Upside (%)
Stake
100
100
51
51
Value
(INR b)
95
14
63
32
4
208
142
46.2
Value (USD b)
1.5
0.2
1.0
0.5
0.1
3.2
2.2
46.2
INR per share
39
6
26
13
2
86
59
46.2
% To Total
46
7
30
15
2
100
Rationale
1x PBV
0.8x PBV
25x Earnings
1x EV
Source: MOFSL, Company
9 August 2020
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Aditya Birla Capital
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
1Q
2Q
(INR m)
FY20
FY20
3Q
4Q
FY21
1Q
ABFSL - NBFC arm
Net Income
6,757
6,430
6,290
6,004
5,709
25,481
Change YoY (%)
24.8
16.5
6.0
-7.9
-15.5
9.0
Opex
1,790
1,909
2,075
2,010
1,780
7,784
Cost to Income Ratio (%)
26.5
29.7
33.0
33.5
31.2
30.5
Operating Profits
4,967
4,521
4,215
3,994
3,929
17,697
Change YoY (%)
34.5
24.9
7.5
-3.0
-20.9
15.3
Provisions
960
1,350
1,490
3,210
2,040
7,010
Profit Before Tax
4,007
3,171
2,725
784
1,889
10,687
Change YoY (%)
19.5
0.0
-15.7
-77.8
-52.9
-19.5
Consolidated Earnings
Profit Before Tax
4,370
3,710
3,420
1,280
2,235
12,780
Growth YoY %
31.2
30.6
-3.7
-68.7
-48.9
-7.5
Lending
4,395
3,526
3,075
1,052
2,244
12,048
NBFC
4,007
3,171
2,725
784
1,889
10,687
HFC
388
356
351
268
355
1,362
AMC
1,754
1,754
1,734
1,366
1,301
6,607
Life Insurance
249
414
335
377
289
1,375
Others*
-2,027
-1,984
-1,725
-1,514
-1,600
-7,250
Taxes
1,810
1,290
1,010
30
670
4,140
Tax rate %
41.4
34.8
29.5
2.3
30.0
32.4
Profit After Tax
2,560
2,420
2,410
1,250
1,564
8,640
Growth YoY %
31.3
58.2
15.9
-51.0
-38.9
6.5
MI and Others
-140
-130
-90
-180
-100
-540
PAT
2,700
2,550
2,500
1,430
1,664
9,180
Growth YoY %
26.8
37.1
17.4
-44.8
-38.4
5.4
Networth allocation mix
NBFC
64.6
64.3
58.5
52.9
52.5
Housing Finance
10.2
10.1
9.2
9.3
9.3
Life Insurance
21.6
21.4
19.5
18.3
18.5
AMC
11.4
10.5
10.4
9.0
9.5
General Ins Adv
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.2
Broking
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.4
Health Insurance
1.8
2.4
2.6
2.1
2.3
Others*
-12.1
-12.1
-3.2
4.8
4.6
Elimination/Unallocated
0.5
1.3
1.3
2.2
1.7
Details on lending business
Loans (INR b)
620
604
601
592
581
Change YoY (%)
15.7
4.3
0.0
-6.3
-6.3
NBFC
502
484
479
471
459
Change YoY (%)
13.0
0.6
-2.8
-9.0
-8.4
HFC
118
121
122
121
121
Change YoY (%)
28.9
22.2
12.6
6.1
2.6
Net Interest Margins
NBFC
5.25
5.28
5.24
5.24
4.88
HFC
2.98
2.97
2.97
2.96
3.27
GNPA %
NBFC
1.69
1.85
2.72
3.62
3.61
HFC
0.67
0.85
1.05
1.21
1.20
Details on Other business
AMC Business
QAAUM (INR b)
2,704
2,694
2,655
2,627
2,257
Change YoY (%)
1.2
-0.8
2.6
-0.1
-16.5
Life Ins - 13th Mt persistency
78.3
80.0
80.9
83.0
81.0
Source: Company, MOFSL; PBT assuming 100% share of AMC business* Others includes Health Ins, PE, AB Money and inter group adjustment;
Numbers may vary from actual reporting due to difference in reporting
9 August 2020
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Aditya Birla Capital
Highlights from management commentary
Business updates
NBFC segment – In the Personal Loan segment, 85–90% of customers are
paying; in Business Loan, 80% of customers are paying.
ABCL works with 40k IFAs in the AMC segment. The IFAs typically have high
persistency ratios.
Improvement in the claims ratio in the Health Insurance segment this quarter
(owing to lower elective procedures) is sustainable. Do not expect COVID-19
related claims to impact the profitability of the Health Insurance segment.
No capital raise is required in FY21.
Persistency in the Life Insurance segment is better v/s peers, largely led by
digital initiatives regarding renewal collection. Also, due to the grace period
granted by the regulator, some renewals for 1QFY21 were done in July (18–19%
customers opted for it).
It plans to increase the share of retail and SME loans to 50% by year-end from
46% currently. It would add 50–70 new locations to aid growth in the retail
book.
Management is cautious on the Group Life business.
It took INR500m COVID-19 provisions this quarter (in addition to INR900m in
4QFY20).
85% of the moratorium book in ABFL was never more than 30dpd+ in the three
months prior to the lockdown.
In the SME segment, the moratorium rate is higher than average. In wholesale
lending, it is less than 20%, and in unsecured lending, it is less than 15%.
Provisions on the balance sheet are adequate in the current situation.
Asset quality / Moratorium
Key exhibits
Exhibit 2: NBFC loan book continues to run down
Loan book (INR b)
23
24
24
20
13
1
444
481
493
517
502
484
-3
479
-9
471
-8
459
92
99
108
114
YoY Growth (%)
Exhibit 3: HFC loan book remains flat sequentially
91
71
Loan book (INR b)
60
40
Growth (%)
118
29
121
22
122
121
13
6
121
3
Source: MOFSL, Company
Source: MOFSL, Company
9 August 2020
4
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Aditya Birla Capital
Exhibit 4: NBFC loan mix (%)
Corporate
12
25
12
50
12
26
12
49
12
26
13
49
Retail
11
13
27
13
47
27
15
47
SME
10
28
16
46
Others*
9
10
27
18
45
27
19
45
9
27
19
45
59
58
59
57
Exhibit 5: Share of Affordable up 400bp YoY (%)
Home loans LAP/LRD
7
9
11
13
9
8
7
7
25
25
23
23
Construction Finance Affordable
12
16
16
16
17
7
4
5
5
5
25
24
27
24
26
56
55
54
53
53
Source: MOFSL, Company; Others include Promoter and others
Source: MOFSL, Company, HFC loan mix%
Exhibit 6: Share of domestic debt AAUM up 200bp QoQ (%)
Domestic Equity
7
60
33
6
60
34
6
60
34
Domestic Debt
6
60
34
6
60
34
6
61
33
Offshore & Alternatives
6
59
35
6
61
33
5
63
32
Exhibit 7: AMC revenues (INR b)
Revenue (INR b)
0.22
3.6
1.5
0.23
3.9
0.25
3.4
1.7
0.28
PBT (INR b)
0.26
0.26
PBT margin* (%)
0.26
0.21
3.2
1.8
3.2
1.8
3.2
1.8
3.2
1.7
2.8
1.4
0.21
2.6
1.3
1.6
Source: MOFSL, Company, AAUM mix %
Source: MOFSL, Company,*% of AAUM Annualized
Exhibit 8: Share of PAR down 700bp sequentially (%)
9
30
24
37
ULIP
8
30
23
39
PAR
7
33
23
37
Non PAR
6
7
8
33
24
37
35
25
32
42
23
28
Term/Protection
6
6
7
43
21
30
42
20
32
48
13
32
Exhibit 9: 13
th
month persistency level down 200bp QoQ (%)
80.0
80.9
83.0
81.0
78.0
72.4
74.0
75.0
78.3
Source: MOFSL, Company
Source: MOFSL, Company
9 August 2020
5
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Aditya Birla Capital
Exhibit 10: Trend in Health Insurance GWP (INR m)
Exhibit 11: Pre-tax loss in other segments
Loss before tax (INR b)
28
21
23
% of PBT
30
22
16
0.87
21
15
0.65
0.18
0.65
5
0.90
1.07
1.06
1.14
0.98
Source: MOFSL, Company
Source: MOFSL, Company
Valuation and view
The past four to six quarters have been challenging for the company, with the
run-down of the loan book and emergence of asset quality stress due to certain
large-ticket accounts. However, the company has responded by running down
the wholesale lending book (especially structured finance, which is high-risk
lending).
Over the past quarter, the moratorium rate saw modest decline to 28% from
33%.
However, the key monitorable is how this portfolio behaves once it is free
of moratorium in September. We expect provisioning to rise meaningfully in
2HFY21 once the moratorium is over. Moreover, given the overall environment,
we do not foresee any meaningful resolution of existing corporate NPLs in the
current year.
The Asset Management business is likely to have a muted year as the industry
combats redemption pressure in equities, along with slowing SIPs. A reduction
in operating expenses would be key to maintaining profitability.
The Life Insurance segment is on a robust trajectory. The HDFC Bank partnership
has performed above our expectation.
The business continues to witness
improved performance on persistency as well as VNB margins.
We use SOTP (FY22E-based) to value the company. Maintain
Buy,
with TP of
INR86.
Value
(INR b)
95
14
63
32
4
208
142
46.2
Exhibit 12: SOTP (Mar’22E-based)
NBFC
HFC
AMC
LI
Others
Target Value
Current market cap.
Upside (%)
Stake
100
100
51
51
Value (USD b)
1.5
0.2
1.0
0.5
0.1
3.2
2.2
46.2
INR per share
39
6
26
13
2
86
59
46.2
% To Total
46
7
30
15
2
100
Rationale
1x PBV
0.8x PBV
25x Earnings
1x EV
Source: MOFSL, Company
9 August 2020
6
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Aditya Birla Capital
Exhibit 13: Business segment-wise networth contribution (INR m)
Y/E MARCH
NBFC
Housing
AMC
Life Insurance
Other Businesses
Consolidation Adjustments
Consolidated Networth
Of which Non-controlling Int
Consolidated NW Post NCI
% of Total Networth
NBFC
Housing
AMC
Life Insurance
Other Businesses
Consolidation Adjustments
Consolidated Networth
Change YoY %
NBFC
Housing
AMC
Life Insurance
Other Businesses
Consolidation Adjustments
Consolidated Networth
2015
19,848
458
5,759
0
666
6,040
32,771
3,069
29,702
2016
35,108
2,048
7,794
0
683
6,472
52,105
7,557
44,548
2017
49,813
3,675
9,416
18,047
782
3,739
85,472
19,518
65,954
2017
58.3
4.3
11.0
21.1
0.9
4.4
100.0
2017
41.9
79.5
20.8
14.4
-42.2
64.0
2018
61,724
7,475
11,610
23,294
2,540
-10,704
95,939
10,560
85,378
2018
64.3
7.8
12.1
24.3
2.6
-11.2
100.0
2018
23.9
103.4
23.3
224.8
-386.2
12.2
2019
74,140
11,900
12,154
24,488
2,322
-18,307
1,06,698
11,574
95,124
2019
69.5
11.2
11.4
23.0
2.2
-17.2
100.0
2019
20.1
59.2
4.7
5.1
-8.6
71.0
11.2
2020
80,780
13,830
13,041
26,574
2,112
2,618
1,38,954
13,196
1,25,758
2020
58.1
10.0
9.4
19.1
1.5
1.9
100.0
2020
9.0
16.2
7.3
8.5
-9.1
-114.3
30.2
2021E
87,143
15,661
13,901
27,944
3,312
1,706
1,49,666
14,803
1,34,863
2021E
58.2
10.5
9.3
18.7
2.2
1.1
100.0
2022E
94,977
17,750
14,888
29,451
4,642
1,029
1,62,736
16,722
1,46,014
2022E
58.4
10.9
9.1
18.1
2.9
0.6
100.0
2015
60.6
1.4
17.6
2.0
18.4
100.0
2015
2016
67.4
3.9
15.0
1.3
12.4
100.0
2016
76.9
35.3
2.7
7.1
59.0
2021E
2022E
7.9
9.0
13.2
13.3
6.6
7.1
5.2
5.4
56.8
40.2
-34.8
-39.7
7.7
8.7
Source: MOFSL, Company
Exhibit 14: Valuation matrix
HFCs
LICHF
PNBHF
Vehicle fin.
SHTF
MMFS
CIFC
Diversified
BAF
SCUF
LTFH
MUTH
MAS
66
Rating
FY22E
CMP
(INR)
260
218
677
135
209
3,466
664
63
1,217
648
Mcap
(USD b)
1.7
0.5
2.0
1.1
2.2
26.8
0.6
1.7
6.4
0.5
P/E (x)
FY21E
FY22E
6.1
4.9
10.0
18.3
14.5
46.9
6.1
12.8
13.6
21.0
5.4
3.6
5.9
15.1
10.6
28.7
5.8
6.7
11.9
17.5
P/BV (x)
FY21E
FY22E
0.7
0.4
0.8
1.1
1.9
5.7
0.6
0.8
3.4
3.2
0.6
0.4
0.7
1.0
1.6
4.8
0.5
0.8
2.8
2.8
RoA (%)
FY21E
FY22E
1.0
1.0
1.5
1.2
1.8
2.5
2.3
0.9
6.7
3.7
1.1
1.3
2.6
1.5
2.2
3.6
2.3
1.7
6.7
4.0
RoE (%)
FY21E
FY22E
11.5
9.1
8.7
6.8
13.8
12.9
9.6
6.7
27.7
16.0
11.8
11.3
13.0
7.0
16.6
18.3
9.2
12.0
25.6
16.9
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
9 August 2020
7
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Aditya Birla Capital
Financials and valuations
BALANCE SHEET
Y/E MARCH
ESC
Reserves and Surplus
Networth
Non-Controlling Interest
Other Capital Instruments
Borrowings
Change (%)
Insurance Business Related
Change (%)
Other liabilities
Change (%)
Total Liabilities
Customer assets
Change (%)
Fixed Assets
Change (%)
Insurance Business Related
Change (%)
Other assets
Change (%)
Total Assets
PROFIT BEFORE TAX
Y/E MARCH
NBFC
Housing
AMC
Life Insurance
Other Businesses
Consolidation Adjustments
Consolidated PBT
Taxes
Tax Rate (%)
Consolidated PAT
Minority Interest
Consolidated PAT Post MI
% of Total PBT
NBFC
Housing
AMC
Life Insurance
Other Businesses
Consolidation Adjustments
Consolidated PBT
Change YoY %
NBFC
Housing
AMC
Life Insurance
Other Businesses
Consolidation Adjustments
Consolidated PBT
Taxes
Consolidated PAT
Minority Interest
Consolidated PAT Post MI
2015
7,570
10,556
18,126
3,069
15,853
1,48,151
0
11,222
1,96,421
1,88,489
2,925
0
5,007
1,96,421
2015
4,108
-56
1,816
0
-291
-388
5,190
2,101
40.5
3,089
696
2,393
2015
79.2
-1.1
35.0
0.0
-5.6
-7.5
100.0
2015
2016
7,960
19,212
27,172
7,557
17,523
2,30,125
55.3
0
18,037
60.7
3,00,414
2,91,163
54.5
3,249
11.1
0
6,002
3,00,414
2016
6,264
-302
3,136
0
-331
-78
8,688
3,446
39.7
5,242
1,436
3,806
2016
72.1
-3.5
36.1
0.0
-3.8
-0.9
100.0
2016
52.5
72.7
13.9
-79.9
67.4
64.0
69.7
106.3
59.1
2017
12,322
53,632
65,954
19,518
147
3,29,378
43.1
3,33,888
32,421
79.7
7,81,306
4,10,633
41.0
8,120
149.9
3,45,959
16,594
176.5
7,81,306
2017
8,319
-155
3,371
0
-534
-343
10,658
3,746
35.1
6,912
1,612
5,300
2017
78.1
-1.5
31.6
0.0
-5.0
-3.2
100.0
2017
32.8
-48.7
7.5
61.3
338.8
22.7
8.7
31.9
12.3
39.3
2018
22,010
63,368
85,378
10,560
0
4,45,157
35.2
3,64,716
9.2
31,331
-3.4
9,37,142
5,20,198
26.7
8,701
7.2
3,74,305
8.2
33,937
104.5
9,37,142
2018
10,509
341
5,231
1,304
-1,478
-1,531
14,377
5,769
40.1
8,608
1,743
6,865
2018
73.1
2.4
36.4
9.1
-10.3
-10.6
100.0
2018
26.3
-320.1
55.2
176.8
346.2
34.9
54.0
24.5
8.1
29.5
2019
22,014
73,110
95,124
11,574
0
5,63,242
26.5
4,01,500
10.1
25,480
-18.7
10,96,920
6,37,935
22.6
9,262
6.4
4,14,145
10.6
35,578
4.8
10,96,920
2019
13,280
1,070
6,468
1,315
-2,155
-2,008
17,969
7,681
42.7
10,288
1,619
8,669
2019
73.9
6.0
36.0
7.3
-12.0
-11.2
100.0
2019
26.4
213.7
23.6
0.8
45.8
31.2
25.0
33.2
19.5
-7.1
26.3
2020
24,138
1,01,620
1,25,758
13,196
0
5,55,836
-1.3
4,12,645
2.8
30,255
18.7
11,37,690
6,33,439
-0.7
12,550
35.5
4,28,267
3.4
63,435
78.3
11,37,690
2020
10,690
1,360
6,607
1,370
-1,870
-1,285
16,872
5,804
34.4
11,068
1,897
9,171
2020
63.4
8.1
39.2
8.1
-11.1
-7.6
100.0
2020
-19.5
27.1
2.2
4.2
-13.2
-36.0
-6.1
-24.4
7.6
17.2
5.8
2021E
24,138
1,10,725
1,34,863
14,803
0
5,34,386
-3.9
4,53,910
10.0
37,894
25.2
11,75,856
6,48,015
2.3
13,015
3.7
4,73,794
10.6
41,032
-35.3
11,75,856
2021E
8,158
1,479
5,773
1,370
-800
250
16,231
5,518
34.0
10,712
1,608
9,105
2021E
50.3
9.1
35.6
8.4
-4.9
1.5
100.0
2021E
-23.7
8.8
-12.6
0.0
-57.2
-3.8
-4.9
-3.2
-15.3
-0.7
(INR m)
2022E
24,138
1,21,877
1,46,014
16,722
0
5,96,865
11.7
4,99,301
10.0
47,282
24.8
13,06,183
7,24,763
11.8
13,572
4.3
5,24,413
10.7
43,435
5.9
13,06,183
(INR m)
2022E
10,204
1,838
6,625
1,507
-670
300
19,803
6,733
34.0
13,070
1,918
11,152
2022E
51.5
9.3
33.5
7.6
-3.4
1.5
100.0
2022E
25.1
24.2
14.8
10.0
-16.3
22.0
22.0
22.0
19.3
22.5
9 August 2020
8
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Aditya Birla Capital
Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating
Expected return (over 12-month)
BUY
>=15%
SELL
< - 10%
NEUTRAL
< - 10 % to 15%
UNDER REVIEW
Rating may undergo a change
NOT RATED
We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall within
following 30 days take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.
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http://onlinereports.motilaloswal.com/Dormant/documents/List%20of%20Associate%20companies.pdf
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though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report
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https://galaxy.motilaloswal.com/ResearchAnalyst/PublishViewLitigation.aspx
A graph of daily closing prices of securities is available at
www.nseindia.com, www.bseindia.com.
Research Analyst views on Subject Company may vary based on Fundamental
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Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) is not a registered broker - dealer under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the"1934 act") and under
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The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S.
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In Singapore, this report is being distributed by Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Ltd (“MOCMSPL”) (Co.Reg. NO. 201129401Z) which is a holder of a capital markets
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Specific Disclosures
1 MOFSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives does not have financial interest in the subject company, as they do not have equity holdings in the subject company.
2 MOFSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives do not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company
3 MOFSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives have not received compensation/other benefits from the subject company in the past 12 months
4 MOFSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives do not have material conflict of interest in the subject company at the time of publication of research report
5 Research Analyst has not served as director/officer/employee in the subject company
6 MOFSL has not acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months
7 MOFSL has not received compensation for investment banking/ merchant banking/brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months
8 MOFSL has not received compensation for other than investment banking/merchant banking/brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months
9 August 2020
9
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Aditya Birla Capital
9 MOFSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report
10 MOFSL has not engaged in market making activity for the subject company
********************************************************************************************************************************
The associates of MOFSL may have:
-
financial interest in the subject company
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actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company
-
received compensation/other benefits from the subject company in the past 12 months
-
other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on
the specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOFSL
even though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report.
-
acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months
-
be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the
company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies)
-
received compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months for investment banking / merchant banking / brokerage services or from other than said services.
The associates of MOFSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report
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consider demat accounts which are opened in name of MOFSL for other purposes (i.e holding client securities, collaterals, error trades etc.). MOFSL also earns DP income from
clients which are not considered in above disclosures.
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the
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the information and opinions contained in this document. The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and
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time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform or seek to
perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities functions as a
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expenses that may be suffered by the person
accessing this information due to any errors and delays.
Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022 71934200/ 022-71934263;
Website www.motilaloswal.com.CIN no.: L67190MH2005PLC153397.Correspondence Office Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road,
Malad(West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 7188 1000.
Registration Nos.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL)*: INZ000158836(BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst:
INH000000412. AMFI: ARN - 146822; Investment Adviser: INA000007100; Insurance Corporate Agent: CA0579;PMS:INP000006712. Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company
Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670); PMS and Mutual Funds are offered through MOAMC which is group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Wealth
Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409) is offered through MOWML, which is a group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is
a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs,Insurance Products and IPOs.Real Estate is offered through Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt.
Ltd. which is a group company of MOFSL. Private Equity is offered through Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd which is a group company of MOFSL.
Research & Advisory services is backed by proper research. Please read the Risk Disclosure Document prescribed by the Stock Exchanges carefully before investing. There is no
assurance or guarantee of the returns. Investment in securities market is subject to market risk, read all the related documents carefully before investing. Details of Compliance
Officer: Name: Neeraj Agarwal, Email ID: na@motilaloswal.com, Contact No.:022-71881085.
* MOSL has been amalgamated with Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) w.e.f August 21, 2018 pursuant to order dated July 30, 2018 issued by Hon'ble National
Company Law Tribunal, Mumbai Bench.
9 August 2020
10