19 October 2020
Results Update | Sector: Real Estate
Oberoi Realty
Estimate changes
TP change
Rating change
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
OBER IN
364
141.6 / 1.9
584 / 290
-13/-27/-31
188
CMP: INR389
TP: INR480(+23%)
Buy
Some recovery visible with arrival of festive season
For FY21, we have broadly maintained our estimates for commercial office
space and hospitality. However, we have lowered our estimates for retail
due to the delay in normal operation of malls. Moreover, we are enthused
by the pickup in residential segment, and thus, have revised our estimates
on the upside by 53% for FY21. Maintain
Buy
with a revised TP of INR480.
2QFY21 performance:
Revenue was down 35.7% YoY to INR3,161m (v/s est.
INR2,595m). EBITDA declined 12% YoY to INR1,865m YoY (v/s est.
INR983m). However, EBITDA margins expanded 1,570bp to 59.0% (v/s est.
37.9%). Adj. PAT was flat YoY at INR1,377m (v/s est. INR696m).
For 1HY21, revenue / EBITDA / adj. PAT declined 60%/45%/43% YoY.
Residential biz sees strong comeback:
Pre-sales volumes declined 7% YoY
to 0.13msf (+958% QoQ), largely driven by strong bookings in the Exquisite
and Enigma projects. Booking value was up 1% YoY to INR3,273m.
Collections stood at INR1,808m (v/s INR6,954m in 2QFY20 and INR858m in
1QFY21). Site visits have been strong over the last couple of months with
better conversion ratio. 2HFY21 looks promising as we move into the festive
season.
Office on steady footing:
Revenue/EBITDA declined 9%/12% YoY to
INR854m/INR791m, with EBITDA margin contracting 320bp to 92.6%.
Occupancy at Commerze II declined 260bp sequentially to 97.4% while the
same at Commerze I remained muted at 34% (same as 1QFY21).
Revival in Hospitality still sometime away:
Hospitality remained impacted
due to travel restrictions. Revenue declined 78% YoY to INR70m with
EBITDA loss of INR6m. Near-term outlook for the hospitality segment
remains challenging given the prevailing uncertainty around the timeline of
resumption of work-related travel.
(a) Sky City Phase II (Borivali) and Exquisite III (Goregaon) are expected to
be launched by end-FY21. (b) The company has aggressive plans to
monetize its annuity assets (commercial and retail) by bringing in a strategic
investor.
Re-leasing of vacant space in Commerz I and performance of Oberoi mall
due to normalization of operations (opening up of multiplexes) remain the
key triggers for annuity assets. Lack of clarity on return to normalcy of
work-related travel is likely to pose near-term challenges for the hospitality
segment.
Early festive cheer is visible in residential sales pickup in 2QFY21 (up 1%
YoY). OBER’s strong pipeline of project launches in 2HFY21 (Exquisite III, Sky
City Phase II and Thane (in case unified DCR is finalized)) augurs well for the
residential segment as we move into the festive season. We have upgraded
our estimates for FY21/22E by 53%/4% to bake in OBER’s aggressive launch
plans and strong demand dynamics in the residential segment. Maintain
Buy
with a PT of INR480.
Early festive cheer in residential; Commercial office steady
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2020 2021E
22.4
13.7
Net Sales
10.5
7.3
EBITDA
46.8
52.8
EBITDAM %
6.9
5.5
NP (INR b)
19.0
15.0
EPS (INR)
-15.6
-20.7
EPS Gr. (%)
237
252
BV/Sh. (INR)
Ratios
0.1
0.1
Net D:E
8.3
6.1
RoE (%)
8.0
5.3
RoCE (%)
Valuations
P/E (x)
16.4
20.7
P/BV (x)
1.3
1.2
EV/EBITDA (x)
11.8
16.7
EV/Sales (x)
5.5
8.8
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Sep-20 Jun-20
Promoter
67.7
67.7
DII
4.7
4.4
FII
25.4
26.2
Others
2.2
1.7
FII Includes depository receipts
2022E
21.3
11.6
54.6
9.9
27.1
80.6
280
0.1
10.2
7.8
11.5
1.1
10.3
5.6
Sep-19
67.7
4.3
25.8
2.3
Key highlights from management commentary
Valuation and view
Alpesh Thacker – Research Analyst
(Alpesh.Thacker@MotilalOswal.com)
3 September 2019
1
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.