8 November 2020
2QFY21 Results Update | Sector: Capital Goods
BHEL
Sell
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2020 2021E
Sales
214.9
225.5
EBITDA
-2.3
-0.6
PAT
-14.7
-3.6
EBITDA (%)
-1.1
-0.3
EPS (INR)
-4.2
-1.0
EPS Gr. (%)
NA
NA
BV/Sh. (INR)
83.8
82.8
Ratios
Net D/E
0.0
0.0
RoE (%)
-5.0
-1.3
RoCE (%)
-1.1
-0.2
Payout (%)
(34.3)
-
Valuations
P/E (x)
(6.6) (26.7)
P/BV (x)
0.3
0.3
EV/EBITDA (x)
(35.7) (160.7)
Div Yield (%)
4.3
-
FCF Yield (%)
(34.1) (13.2)
CMP: INR28
TP: INR22 (-22%)
Revenue disappoints once again; losses widen
Receivables remain elevated; recovery a long way off
BHEL IN
3,482
97.3 / 1.3
58 / 19
-11/-11/-53
1457
2022E
267.4
12.1
5.0
4.5
1.4
NA
83.2
0.0
1.7
2.6
70.0
19.4
0.3
7.9
3.0
3.9
Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL)’s 2QFY21 earnings were disappointing as
revenue came in 27% below our estimates. Higher fixed cost dented
operating performance, with operating level loss attributable to under-
absorption of costs. The company is yet to show any significant
improvement in pending receivables, with total debtors at INR349b in
1HFY21 (v/s ~INR360b at end-FY20). In spite of the company’s ongoing
efforts, we expect the receivables position to remain elevated in the near
future. Order inflows remained weak, with 50% YoY decline in 2QFY21.
We now expect BHEL to report operating-level loss in FY21E. While orders
are few and far between, the pricing environment remains highly
competitive, limiting scope for margin expansion. While the company has
received an Expression of Interest (EoI) from three major OEMs regarding its
ongoing diversification drive, we believe any material financial impact is still
some time away. We maintain our Sell rating, with TP of INR22 (15x FY22E
EPS).
2QFY21 earnings summary:
Revenue was down 41% YoY to INR37b,
27%
below our estimates.
EBITDA remained in the negative territory, with losses
widening to INR6.3b (v/s our expectation of INR1.3b loss). Bottom-line loss
stood at INR5.6b (v/s our estimate of INR1.9b).
OCF stood at –INR0.6b (v/s –
INR23.5b in 1HFY20). Working capital as a percentage of sales
was
elevated
at ~120% in 1HFY21 (v/s 75% in 1HFY20).
Segmental highlights: (a) Power: 2QFY21
revenue was down 41% YoY to
INR24.9b. EBIT losses came in at INR5b (v/s profit of INR4.3b).
(b) Industry:
2QFY21
revenue was down 47% YoY to INR9.5b. EBIT loss stood at INR1.6b
(v/s profit of INR546m).
The order book (OB) was flat YoY at INR1,076b, with OB/rev at 6.6x.
Segment-wise OB is as follows: Power – INR869b, Industry – INR130b, and
International orders – INR78b.
Order inflows stood at INR37.2b in 2QFY21 (Power – INR29.4b, Industry –
INR7b, and International orders – INR820m).
Around ~80% of orders in the total OB of INR1,076b are executable.
Major orders received include E&M works for 12*80 MW Polavaram
Hydroelectric Power Station and the supply of pump-motor sets for
Palamuru Rangareddy LIS Station-1 and Station-4.
Tendering is underway for 6*700 MW NPCIL, 2*800 MW NTPC Singrauli,
2*800 MW NTPC Lara, and 2*660 MW Pench. Tenders for ~30GW of FGD
orders are in various stages of processing. A similar quantum of new tenders
for FGD orders is likely to be issued in upcoming quarters.
Efficiency at factories stood at ~70% in 1HFY21 (v/s 1HFY20).
Total receivables remain elevated at ~INR349b, of which 11% are from the
private sector, 49% from state entities, 33% from the center, and 7% from
the international markets.
Order inflows remain weak
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Promoter
DII
FII
Others
Sep-20
63.2
15.6
4.2
17.0
Jun-20
63.2
18.1
5.1
13.6
Sep-19
63.2
19.1
11.4
6.4
FII Includes depository receipts
Management commentary highlights
Nilesh Bhaiya – Research Analyst
(Nilesh.Bhaiya@MotilalOswal.com)
Pratik Singh – Research Analyst
(Pratik.Singh@MotilalOswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.