13 November 2020
2QFY21 Results Update | Sector: Media
Sun TV Network
Estimate changes
TP change
Rating change
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
SUNTV IN
394
174.6 / 2.3
520 / 260
-8/-30/-24
1124
CMP: INR443
TP: INR530(+20% )
Buy
EBITDA supported by lower opex; Subscription
revenues trend higher
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
FY20 FY21E FY22E
Y/E March
Sales
34.0 32.0 37.7
EBITDA
22.4 21.4 25.5
Adj. PAT
13.7 14.0 16.2
EBITDA Margin (%)
65.7 66.9 67.7
Adj. EPS (INR)
34.8 35.5 41.1
EPS Gr. (%)
-1.7
2.0 15.8
BV/Sh. (INR)
142.7 149.3 161.6
Ratios
Net D:E
-0.6
-0.7
-0.8
RoE (%)
24.8 24.3 26.4
RoCE (%)
24.9 24.4 26.5
Payout (%)
82.9 81.3 70.2
Valuations
P/E (x)
12.7 12.5 10.8
P/B (x)
3.1
3.0
2.7
EV/EBITDA (x)
6.6
6.5
6.4
Div. Yield (%)
5.6
5.6
5.6
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Sep-20
Jun-20
Promoter 75.0
75.0
DII
5.3
5.6
FII
10.9
10.3
Others
8.9
9.1
FII Includes depository receipts
Sun TV’s 2QFY21 revenue recovered with 2% YoY decline (in-line) v/s 45%
decline in 1QFY21. This was attributed to stronger ad revenues and resilient
subscription revenues. EBITDA grew 7% (5% above est.) with cost
rationalization.
We have revised up our FY21E EBITDA by 7% on lower-than-estimated cost
in 2QFY21. Our FY22E revenue/EBITDA estimates are largely maintained; we
factor in 11%/14% growth over FY20. Revival in earnings and a low
valuation make it attractive. Maintain Buy.
SUN TV’s 2QFY21 revenues declined 2.3% YoY to INR7.6b (in-line), v/s 45%
decline in 1QFY21. Advertisement revenue recovered – down 29% v/s 67%
in 1QFY21; subscription revenue grew 14%.
Production costs / Employee expenses were down 35%/3% YoY, while SG&A
was up 8% YoY. This led to an overall 17% drop in opex v/s est. opex decline
of 13%.
Thus, EBITDA grew 7% YoY to INR5b (5% beat), supported by a reduction in
operating costs and marginally better-than-expected revenue; EBITDA
margins stood at 66.4% (up 580bps YoY).
Other income came in at INR516m (down 29% YoY). Subsequently, net
profit fell 6% YoY to INR3.5b (20% beat).
Sun TV generated strong INR8b cash from operations in 1HFY21.
Furthermore, its liquidity position remains strong as the company has net
cash of INR35.9b.
Revenue:
Advertisement revenue has picked up to 80% of pre-COVID levels
in Oct’20. However, de-growth is expected in FY21 given weak recovery
from regional customers. Subscription revenue should grow in the double
digits even excluding contribution from OTT subscriptions.
IPL:
Profit from the event should be significantly lower YoY due to a change
in the title sponsor (INR125m loss), lost ticket revenue (INR250–300m), and
higher operational expense as the tournament took place in the UAE.
Content focus:
The current focus remains on the pipeline of eight
blockbusters (INR3–4b cost), scheduled to be released over the next 12
months, along with the revamping of TV content. After this, the
management would focus on Sun Next original content.
OTT:
Original content production has been delayed due to movie line-ups.
However, the target is to annually invest INR2b in OTT from FY22. The
platform is expected to clock higher revenues given strong subscriber
traction and demand on telco/other OTT platforms.
Revenue down 2.3% YoY (in-line); EBITDA up 7% YoY (5% beat)
Sep-19
75.0
8.1
8.5
8.4
Highlights from management commentary
Research Analyst: Aliasgar Shakir
(Aliasgar.Shakir@motilaloswal.com)
Suhel Shaikh
(Suhel.Ahmad@MotilalOswal.com) |
Anshul Aggarwal
(Anshul.Aggarwal@motilaloswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.