Gujarat State Petronet
BSE SENSEX
44,180
S&P CNX
12,938
18 November 2020
Company Update | Sector: Oil & Gas
CMP: INR192
TP: INR300 (+57)
A decade old – A decade new: a huge opportunity
Buy
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
GUJS IN
564
108 / 1.5
263 / 146
-8/-41/-23
163
62.4
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E March
2020 2021E 2022E
Sales
19.4 18.9 20.5
EBITDA
15.7 15.1 16.0
PAT
11.1
9.5 10.0
EPS (INR)
19.7 16.8 17.8
EPS Gr. (%)
39.5 -14.4
5.8
BV/Sh.(INR)
119.2 133.6 149.0
Ratios
Net D:E
-0.6
-0.6
-0.7
RoE (%)
17.8 13.3 12.6
RoCE (%)
17.5 13.3 12.6
Payout (%)
12.2 14.3 13.5
Valuations
P/E (x)
9.7 11.4 10.7
P/BV (x)
1.6
1.4
1.3
EV/EBITDA (x)
7.1
7.0
6.1
Div. Yield (%)
1.0
1.0
1.0
FCF Yield (%)
13.5
8.0
7.8
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Sep-20 Jun-20 Sep-19
Promoter
37.6
37.6
37.6
DII
30.9
33.6
33.9
FII
15.6
15.5
15.5
Others
15.9
13.2
12.9
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Guj.St.Petronet
Sensex - Rebased
310
250
190
130
Gujarat State Petronet (GUJS) reported volumes of ~40mmscmd in 2QFY21, taking
the company to near full capacity levels of ~42mmscmd.
We discussed volume growth avenues – both immediate and for the future – with
the management. The following are key insights from the same:
GUJS has installed an additional compressor, which facilitated pipeline capacity
expansion by ~10%, thus taking total pipeline capacity to ~46mmscmd.
While GUJGA stated during its recent earnings that volumes are higher than its
2QFY21 average, the benefits have also accrued to GUJS, which is currently
operating ~44mmscmd (further supported by strong LNG demand).
Although, the company believes that volumes would settle down a bit, as festive
demand is behind us, it could still average ~42mmscmd in 3QFY21.
Also, GUJS is in advance stage of renting an additional compressor to install at
the pipeline connecting the Mundra LNG terminal, further expanding pipeline
capacity by ~0.5mmtpa (~1.8mmscmd).
In addition to the ongoing capex on various other pipelines, the new expanded
capacity of 47-48mmscmd provides opportunity for another 20% volume growth
on its last reported numbers. On similar lines, GUJS expects to fulfill its targeted
volumes growth of 10% per annum.
Over the last five years, EBITDA grew ~11% CAGR, in line with volumes CAGR of ~10%
(to ~38msmcmd in FY20 from 23mmscmd in FY15) despite average implied tariff of
~INR1,215 lower than ~INR1,240 in 2QFY21.
Available LNG regas capacity is expected to jump by 54% to 40mmtpa over the next
2-3 years in Gujarat from the current 24mmtpa, presenting a huge volume growth
opportunity for GUJS.
At a 25% holding company discount, the 54% stake in GUJGA provides a valuation of
INR152/share for GUJS (i.e. ~80% of CMP), thus implying a mere 2x Sep’22E P/E for
the standalone business.
The value of GUJS standalone business is the lowest in its stock price history (refer
Exhibit 5), despite record high volumes, thus presenting an excellent investment
opportunity. Reiterate Buy.
We value GUJS at 8x Sep’22E standalone EPS to arrive at our target price of INR300.
Petchem/refining and fertilizer demand – the roadrunner
India imported ~22.2mmtpa of LNG in 1HFY21, primarily driven by demand
from petchem/refining (up 8% YoY) and fertilizer (up 6% YoY); while power was
flat YoY and CGD was down 33% YoY. Gujarat is assumed to have received
~90% of India’s total LNG imports (GUJS have established pipelines at all three
LNG terminals).
As per power data (by CEA), total electricity demand in the country is down
7% YoY in FY21 YTD, while gas-based power production is up 13% during
the same period.
Fertilizer demand is expected to see a huge volume boost (~11-
12mmscmd) in FY22 as three fertilizer plants get commissioned along the
Jagdishpur-Haldia-Bokaro-Dhamra pipeline (JHBDPL), along with
connectivity to refiners on the Urja-Ganga pipeline.
Swarnendu Bhushan- Research Analyst
(Swarnendu.Bhushan@MotilalOswal.com)
Sarfraz Bhimani - Research Analyst
(Sarfraz.Bhimani@MotilalOswal.com)
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.