SBI Life Insurance
BSE SENSEX
44,180
S&P CNX
12,938
Chalet Hotels
18 November 2020
Company Update | Sector: Financials
CMP: INR858
TP: INR1,050 (+22%)
Buy
Protection trends remain robust; cost leadership continues
Growth steadily revives after seeing trough levels; valuations reasonable
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
SBILIFE IN
1,000
857.7 / 11.6
1020 / 520
-3/-24/-24
1693
39.3
Financial snapshot (INRb)
Y/E MARCH
FY20 FY21E FY22E
Net Premiums
403
469
553
Surplus / Deficit
19.0
30.3
36.0
Sh.PAT
14.2
16.6
18.3
NBP gr- unwtd (%)
20.3
7.0
18.0
NBP gr- APE (%)
10.2
6.2
14.3
Premium gr (%)
23.2
16.0
18.2
VNB margin (%)
18.7
20.5
21.1
RoE (%)
17.4
17.6
16.9
RoEV (%)
17.4
17.2
17.2
Total AUMs (INRt)
1.6
1.9
2.3
VNB
20.1
22.9
26.9
EV per share
263
308
361
Valuations
P/EV (x)
3.2
2.8
2.4
P/EPS (x)
59.8
51.3
46.4
SBILIFE posted a rebound in business premium with individual APE growing at 14%
YoY in Oct’20 after reporting a consecutive decline for the past many months.
During 2QFY21, the ULIP business declined 13% YoY but grew 166% QoQ from the
troughs seen earlier. Protection growth remains robust both in individual and
group segments and is expected it to remain strong. The revival in credit growth,
with parent SBIN indicating that the retail disbursement run-rate is now higher
than pre-COVID levels, further augurs well for SBILIFE.
The company reported an improvement in persistency rate across cohorts, with
the highest improvement seen in the 61st month (up 340bp YoY to ~61% in
1HFY21). Persistency in the Protection business remains strong. The ULIP business
is showing signs of a recovery on improved capital market performance.
SBILIFE is also looking to optimize its product mix in the Protection/Annuity
business. This should help VNB margin to further expand to ~22% by FY23E, which
should drive 19% CAGR in VNB over FY20-23E. We expect operating RoEV to
remain steady ~18%, while EV clocks 17% CAGR over FY20-23E. Maintain Buy with
TP of INR1,050/share (2.7x Sep’22E EV).
APE growth showing improving trends; Renewal growth remains robust
Total APE declined ~3% YoY (grew 113% QoQ) during 2QFY21 as business trends
continue to march towards normalcy. ULIP business declined 13% YoY, but
improved 166% QoQ from the troughs witnessed during 1QFY21, while
Protection trends remains strong. During Oct’20, SBILIFE posted 14% YoY growth
in individual APE, while overall APE grew 13% YoY. The company continues to
post strong Renewal growth at 29% YoY (way ahead of its peers). SBILIFE’s
distinct competitive advantage owing to its parent SBIN provides it a long-term
Shareholding pattern (%)
structural growth story. With retail disbursements moving towards normalcy, we
As On
Sep-20 Jun-20 Sep-19
expect business volumes to revive further in coming months.
Promoter
60.7
60.7
62.8
DII
7.1
7.0
FII
25.8
26.2
Others
6.5
6.1
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
SBI Life Insuran
1,175
950
725
500
Sensex - Rebased
6.9
23.7
6.6
NBP (un-weighted) growth trends for SBILIFE better v/s peers
Growth in new business premium (un-weighted) outperformed the industry and
peers, which SBILIFE grew ~15% YoY over FY21 YTD (v/s 3.1% for the industry
and 12.4% for HDFCLIFE and 10.5% decline for IPRU).Also, Sum assured growth
trends remains robust for both IPRU and SBILIFE, which suggests improving
trends in the Protection segment.
Protection business trends remain strong; individual protection mix increasing
Protection growth remained strong (70% YoY) in 2QFY21, led by both individual
and group protection. The share of Protection business improved to 12.5% (v/s
7.1% in 2QFY20 and 8.9% in FY20). The management said growth in individual
protection was volume driven, while the ticket size broadly remains the same.
The share of individual protection in total APE improved to ~7% (v/s 4.7% in
FY20). Group protection trends remain steady despite flat trends in credit life.
The pick -up in home loan and other retail disbursements for parent SBIN will
allow higher cross-sell of credit life business and support VNB margin.
Research Analyst: Nitin Aggarwal
(Nitin.Aggarwal@MotilalOswal.com) |
Himanshu Taluja
(Himanshu.Taluja@motilaloswal.com)
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com);
Yash Agarwal
(Yash.Agarwal@motilaloswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.