23 November 2020
Update | Sector: Automobile
Mahindra and Mahindra
BSE SENSEX
44,077
S&P CNX
12,926
CMP: INR705
TP: INR830 (+18%)
Buy
Better-than-expected business recovery in SUVs
Recovery in LCVs faster than expected, gains 500bp market share in 1HFY21
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
MM IN
1,209
876.8 / 12
728 / 246
4/22/20
3118
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E MARCH
2020 2021E 2022E
Sales
455
453
524
EBITDA
58.0
61.8
69.9
Adj. PAT*
35.8
38.7
46.3
Adj. EPS (INR)
30.0
32.4
38.8
EPS Gr. (%)
-30.3
8.2
19.8
BV/Sh. (INR)
290
317
347
Ratios
RoE (%)
9.7
9.9
11.1
RoCE (%)
5.9
9.4
10.3
Payout (%)
24
19
24
Valuations
P/E (x)
23.5
21.7
18.2
P/BV (x)
2.4
2.2
2.0
Div. Yield (%)
0.3
0.7
1.1
FCF Yield*
0.2
4.0
5.9
*(incl MVML)
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Sep-20 Jun-20
Promoter
18.9
18.9
DII
29.9
28.5
FII
41.1
41.1
Others
10.2
11.5
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
M&M
Sensex - Rebased
Sep-19
18.9
26.7
41.5
12.9
Our positive view on MM is based on a strong recovery in Tractors, LCVs recovering
in 2HFY21 and positive development on capital allocation. We were not banking on
any positive development in its SUV business, but have taken stock of MM’s SUV
and LCV business in this note. Both businesses have so far positively surprised us.
The company is reorienting its SUV business to maintain its DNA and brand position
and garner market share. Thar’s success shows that it is on the right track.
The MM and Ford JV got delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the
product pipeline reflects some promising upgrades in its UV portfolio.
LCV segment has seen a fast recovery despite steep BS6 price hikes. As expected, its
LCV market share has increased ~500bp YoY to 47% in 1HFY21, driven by lesser BS6
price hikes than SCVs and due to supply issues with peers. The LCV industry should
continue to benefit from the increasing emergence of the 'Hub and Spoke' model.
While MM’s core business would recover faster, the focus on tightening capital
allocation could act as a re-rating catalyst. Hence, we see twin levers of EPS growth
and re-rating. Maintain Buy with a TP of INR830/share (Dec’22E SoTP), implying a
core P/E of ~15x at our TP.
Thar starts on a very positive note
800
650
500
350
200
The upgraded Thar has got off to a good start with over 78,000 inquiries at
the dealer level and over 20,000 bookings within a month of launch. This
compares with total sales of ~23,000 units for the old Thar during FY16-20.
Unlike the old Thar (niche off-roading SUV), the new Thar has emerged as a
mainstream vehicle while maintaining its off-roading vehicle image. Over 55%
of Thar customers are buying the Mahindra brand for the first time, with
automatic forming 44% of bookings, implying a higher city usage.
All Thar variants were launched upfront and this seems to have worked well
unlike in the past. Considering the strong demand for the mid and premium
variants, the company has currently stopped accepting bookings for the entry
level AX variant.
The waiting period for the Thar is 5-7 months and production is being
ramped-up to 3,000 units/month by Jan’21 (as against peak monthly sales of
~860 units for old Thar) from 2,000 units.
Core SUVs doing better than expected
SUV sales have shown a better-than-expected recovery despite supply-side
issues in 1HFY21. Our channel check suggests that MM’s SUVs demand has
recovered smartly, particularly for Bolero, Scorpio and XUV500, but retails are
restricted due to lower supplies. At the end of 2QFY21, its Auto division had
one of the lowest stocks ever.
Jinesh Gandhi - Research analyst
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com)
Vipul Agrawal - Research analyst
(Vipul.Agrawal@MotilalOswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
3 September 2019
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