Motilal Oswal Financial Services

27 February 2021

Company update | Sector: Automobiles

Tata Motors

BSE SENSEX

49,100

S&P CNX

14,529

CMP: INR323

TP: INR400(+24%)

JLR going back to basics & simplifying business

Expects substantial reduction in net debt and FCF increase from FY23

Buy

Stock Info

Bloomberg

Equity Shares (m)

M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)

52-Week Range (INR)

1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)

12M Avg Val (INR M)

Free float (%)

TTMT IN

3,598

1137.7 / 16

342 / 64

14/109/100

13086

53.6

Financials Snapshot (INR b)

Y/E March

2020 2021E

Net Sales

2,611 2,469

EBITDA

239.1 313.7

Adj. PAT

-90.9 -32.6

Adj. EPS (INR)

-25.3

-8.5

EPS Gr. (%)

480 -66.3

BV/Sh. (INR)

175.3 123.4

Ratios

Net D/E (x)

1.6

2.1

RoE (%)

-14.8

-5.9

RoCE (%)

3.7

8.5

Payout (%)

0.0

Valuations

P/E (x)

-12.8 -37.9

P/BV (x)

1.8

2.6

EV/EBITDA (x)

6.9

6.0

Div. Yield (%)

0.0

FCF Yield (%)

-2.5

-2.7

2022E

3,084

431.9

89.6

23.4

-374.5

146.7

1.8

17.3

12.5

0.0

13.8

2.2

4.2

0.0

3.3

Shareholding pattern (%)

As On

Dec-20 Sep-20 Dec-19

Promoter

42.4

DII

12.7

13.2

15.1

FII

15.6

15.8

18.3

Others

29.3

28.6

24.2

FII Includes depository receipts

Stock Performance (1-year)

Tata Motors

Sensex - Rebased

350

290

230

170

110

JLR hosted its Investors Day to share its updated strategy ‘Reimagine’ to drive sustainable

recovery and make business fit for future (click

here for the presentation).

JLR’s

‘Reimagine’ strategy is not about catching up but taking a leap and right sizing,

reorganizing and repurposing the organization. It plans to launch 6 Land Rover models in

pure EV form in next 5 years with first launch in FY24. It is targeting >10% EBIT margins

driven by ‘Refocus’ program (3pp by FY24) and architecture consolidation (>3% by FY26).

This coupled with controlled capex at GBP2.5b p.a for next 3 years, it expects substantial

reduction in net debt and FCF increase from FY23 (net debt zero by FY24). Key highlights

from the meeting:



'Reimagine' strategy sets forth roadmap for the future by simplifying business,

making it more agile and focusing on profits over volumes. This strategy revolves

around a) making brands and products more exciting, aspirational and desirable, b)

making architectures electrified as well as simple and flexible, c) collaborations with

the Tata group and other partners, d) rightsize and repurposes its operational

infrastructure and e) refocus on quality, sales, costs and digital transformation.



Under 'Reimagine', JLR is targeting faster growing luxury segments. Its targeted

'Reimagine' segments are expected to grow 2.8% CAGR over FY19-27 as against

estimated 2.2% CAGR for its current segments and 0.5% for the industry volumes. It

is aspiring to increase share by 2x (to 18% by FY26) in segments with better

profitability. This would be achieved through market share gains across geographies,

but particularly in more profitable markets like China, UK and EU.



JLR has laid down its roadmap to electrification, with a) first LR BEV launch in 2024,

b) total 6 LR BEVs in next 5 years, c) pure BEV Jaguar from 2025 and d) full phase out

of pure ICE by FY26. This product plan is expected to lead to pure BEV contribution to

volume at 20% in FY26 and 60% in FY30 (v/s 3% in F20). This would enable it to more

than meet future emission standards and achieve zero tailpipe emissions by 2036

(and net zero emission at business level by 2039).



Further, it would be consolidating its architectures (platforms) from six to three, of

which two would be flexi architecture for LR (MLA and EMA) and one would be

exclusively for Jaguar (Pure BEV). These 3 architectures are expected to deliver ~80%

of JLR volume by FY27.



'Refocus' program is expected to contribute 3pp to EBIT margin by FY24, driven by

reduction in variable marketing expenditure (VME), material cost, warranty cost etc.

Further, it expects consolidation of architectures to drive >3pp EBIT margin addition

by FY26 (expect benefits to start reflecting from 2HFY23). With focus on profits over

volume, it would reduce its manufacturing capacity by 25% over next 5 years. Also,

GBP1b write-off of investments (due to discontinuation of two models under

development) will result in lower depreciation by GBP150m p.a (or 50bp EBIT

margin).



It expects capex to sustain at GBP2.5b p.a till FY24 and increase gradually to GBP3b

by FY26. Unlike in the past (where capex was based on aspiration of 1m unit

volumes), it doesn't need to invest in creating capacities and physical infrastructure.

Its guided capex estimates are after factoring in for the planned collaborations. It is

also looking for a partner for Jaguar BEV.

Jinesh Gandhi – Research Analyst

(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com)

Vipul Agrawal – Research Analyst

(Vipul.Agrawal@motilaloswal.com)

Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.

Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Tata Motors



This would require one-time non-cash write-down of GBP1b (for discontinuation of

two product development) and reorganization cost of GBP0.5b. While these costs

would be accounted in 4QFY21, cashflow impact of GBP0.5b would reflect in FY22E.

It now expects FY21 to be near free cashflow breakeven. Also, FY22 would be near

cash breakeven after factoring in for cashflow impact of GBP0.5b reorganization cost.

It expects significant improvement in FCF and debt reduction from FY23, and expects

net debt zero by FY24 and net cash balance sheet by FY25.

In 4QFY21, it has lost 15% production in Jan-21 due to Brexit. Also, there is uncertainty

due to semi-conductor supply issue. However, it still expects 10-15% QoQ growth in

volumes in 4Q and 4%+ EBIT margins.

We are upgrading our consol. EPS estimates by 15%/9% for FY22/23, as we factor in

for the restructuring/reorganization cost of GBP1.5b in 4QFY21 (and impact of

GBP0.5b on cashflows in FY22) and its subsequent benefit on lower depreciation and

amortization.

Maintain Buy with a TP of INR400/share (Mar'23E SOTP).

‘Reimagine’ focuses on making JLR business sustainable & ready for future



‘Reimagine’ strategy sets forth roadmap for the future by simplifying business,

making it more agile and focusing on profits over volumes. ‘Reimagine’ strategy

has been designed to address the key challenges facing the business (both

macro and company specific).

This strategy revolves around a) making brands and products more exciting,

aspirational and desirable, b) making architectures electrified as well as simple

and flexible, c) collaborations with the Tata group and other partners, d)

rightsize and repurposes its operational infrastructure and e) refocus on quality,

sales, costs and digital transformation.

‘Reimagine’ aspires to deliver a) modern luxury products/services by design, b)

double digit EBIT by FY26, c) sustained lower capex at GBP2.5b p.a for next 3

years (rising to GBP3b by FY26), d) Positive cashflows from FY23, and e) net cash

balance sheet by FY25. This would require one-time non-cash write-down of

GBP1b (for discontinuation of two product development) and reorganization

cost of GBP0.5b. While these costs would be accounted in 4QFY21, cashflow

impact of GBP0.5b would reflect in FY22E.

Target to grow faster by share gains in more profitable segments/markets



Under ‘Reimagine’, JLR is targeting faster growing luxury segments. Its targeted

‘Reimagine’ segments are expected to grow 2.8% CAGR over FY19-27 as against

estimated 2.2% CAGR for its current segments and 0.5% for the industry

volumes. This would be driven by strong product pipeline in its area of strength

(Discover 130, new RR/RR Sports in next 12-18 months etc).

It is aspiring to increase share by 2x (to 18% by FY26) in segments with better

profitability. In its strongest profitability products (like RR/RR Sport), it is

targeting to increase its global market share from 12% in FY21 to 18% in FY26. In

its strong profitable products (like Velar), it wants to more than double market

share to 15% (from 7%). In lower profitability segments (like Jaguar XE), it would

let it market share fall to 1% (from 2%).

27 February 2021

Tata Motors



This would be achieved through market share gains across geographies, but

particularly in more profitable markets like China, UK and EU (refer Exhibit 4 for

details).

Focus on EVs with volumes from BEV targeted at 20%/60% by FY26/30



JLR has laid down its roadmap to electrification, with a) first LR BEV launch in

2024, b) total 6 LR BEVs in next 5 years, c) pure BEV Jaguar from 2025 and d) full

phase out of pure ICE by FY26.

This product plan is expected to lead to pure BEV contribution to volume at 20%

in FY26 and 60% in FY30 (v/s 3% in F20). This would enable it to more than meet

future emission standards and achieve zero tailpipe emissions by 2036 (and net

zero emission at business level by 2039).

It is also working on hydrogen based fuel-cell technology, with prototypes

expected in 12 months. Fuel cell electric vehicles provide a lighter propulsion

system, making them suitable for large SUVs.

Further, it would be consolidating its architectures (platforms) from six to three,

of which two would be flexi architecture for LR (MLA and EMA) and one would

be exclusively for Jaguar (Pure BEV). These 3 architectures are expected to

deliver ~80% of JLR volume by FY27.

As part of 'Reimagine' strategy, it has stopped development of 2 models viz new

XJ EV and LR BEV on mid-MLA platform, resulting in write-off GBP1b (non-cash).

‘Refocus’ program & architecture consolidation to deliver >10% EBIT margin



'Refocus' program builds on the success of Project Charge+ and is driven directly

by the CEO. It consists of 6 pillars viz a) quality (reduce warranty cost further), b)

program delivery & performance, c) reduction in delivered cost per car, d)

supply chain (faster vehicle delivery time), e) improved customer & market

performance and f) improve China performance (profitable market share gains).

‘Refocus’ program is expected to deliver GBP2b of value in 3 years and GBP4b of

value in 5 years (cumulative) and contribute 3pp to EBIT margin by FY24. It is

already making good progress on reducing variable marketing expenditure

(VME), material cost, warranty cost etc. Both VME and Warranty cost combined

is expected to be <10% of sales and improvement would be driven by focus on

LR (its area of strength) as well as new products and model year 21 products.

Further, it expects consolidation of architectures to drive >3pp EBIT margin

addition by FY26 (expect benefits to start reflecting from 2HFY23).

With focus on profits over volume, it would reduce its manufacturing capacity

by 25% over next 5 years. Solihull plant (MLA platform and Jaguar BEV) and

Halewood plant (EMA platform) would transit to manufacturing all three

architectures. Castle Bromwich will make existing models till end of its product

lifecycle, post which it would be repurposed (as office).

Also, GBP1b write-off of investments (due to discontinuation of two models

under development) will result in lower depreciation by GBP150m p.a (or 50bp

EBIT margin).

27 February 2021

Tata Motors

Capex to sustain at GBP2.5b till FY24, turn net debt zero by FY24



It expects capex to sustain at GBP2.5b p.a till FY24 and increase gradually to

GBP3b by FY26. Unlike in the past (where capex was based on aspiration of 1m

unit volumes), it doesn't need to invest in creating capacities and physical

infrastructure. Also, platform consolidation is also aiding lower capex

requirement per new models along with shifting of investments from ICE to EV

models.

Its guided capex estimates are after factoring in for the planned collaborations

within Tata Group and others (with objective of enhancing competencies,

optimize capital allocation and speed to market). Key targeted areas for

collaborations are a) ADAS, b) Next-gen batteries, c) Energy systems, d) Vehicle

architectures, e) Services and f) Connectivity.

It is also looking for a partner for Jaguar BEV due to lack of scale as well as to

improve speed to market.

It now expects FY21 to be near free cashflow breakeven. Also, FY22 would be

near cash breakeven after factoring in for cashflow impact of GBP0.5b

reorganization cost.

It expects significant improvement in FCF and debt reduction from FY23, and

expects net debt zero by FY24 and net cash balance sheet by FY25.

Other highlights



In 4QFY21, it has lost 15% production in Jan-21 due to Brexit. Also, there is

uncertainty due to semi-conductor supply issue. However, it still expects 10-15%

QoQ growth in volumes in 4Q and 4%+ EBIT margins.

In China, it has reduced discounts (despite aging portfolio) driven by RR/RR

Sport. It hopes to reduce discounts below 10% of sales (v/s 17% in FY20 and 11%

in 9MFY21). It has reduced retailer stocks to 1.5 months (from 2.2 months in

FY19 and 1.7 months in FY20) and sees scope to reduce it further by 10%.

JLR is working with TCS for enabling technology including OTA updates as well as

autonomous driving technology.

Over last 2 years, it has reduced breakeven volumes to 400k units (from 600k in

FY19) and expects to sustain it in 400-450k range in future despite expansion in

product portfolio.

Valuation and view



Recovery in JLR volumes in FY21 to be driven by market recovery and ramp-up

in newly launched Evoque and Defender:

JLR volumes have been under

pressure since FY19 due to several headwinds. However, there were early signs

of a recovery in 2HCY19, driven by the new Evoque, ramp-up in I-Pace, and

course correction in China (reversed by the COVID-19 outbreak). With good

support from the governments of China, the EU, and the US, demand recovery is

expected from 2HFY21. JLR should also benefit from the upcoming Defender

launch and PHEV Evoque/Discovery Sport. We expect JLR volumes (including JV)

to decline at 2.6% CAGR over FY20-23E (after a 4.4% decline over FY17-20) as it

de-focuses on less-profitable models. This, coupled with the possibility of an

improvement in mix and reduced variable marketing spends, would drive

further improvement in realizations.

27 February 2021

Tata Motors



JLR’s

profitability to improve driven by mix, cost-cutting, and operating

leverage:

JLR has several levers, both cyclical and structural, in the form of: a)

targeted GBP1.5-2b in cost cuts (including GBP300m savings in depreciation post

impairment), b) mix improvement (growth in LR and China), c) operating

leverage, d) cost savings from the modular platform (on a full rollout of the

modular strategy), and e) the low-cost Slovakian plant. The convergence of

multiple factors stated above could drive recovery in EBIT margin and leave

scope for positive surprises on profitability. JLR’s targeted transition from the

‘push’ to ‘pull’ strategy for volumes, particularly in China, would be a critical

variable for margin expansion. We estimate JLR’s EBIT margin at

1.7%/5.2%/6.2% in FY21E/FY22E/FY23E (v/s -0.1% in FY20).

India business outlook improving; PV breakeven in sight:

With a steadfast focus on

reducing inventory over the last 3-4 quarters (due to a challenging demand

environment), the management took substantial production cuts, resulting in a

sharp drop in wholesale volumes in 2HFY20. It was further impacted by the COVID-

19 outbreak in 1HFY21. Although TTMT’s India CV business is on a strong footing,

M&HCV volumes may see the slowest recovery in the Auto industry. Its refreshed

product portfolio has helped its PV business recover rapidly, gain market share, and

be on track to achieve FCF breakeven by FY23.

Valuation and view:

We are upgrading our consol. EPS estimates by 15%/9% for

FY22/23, as we factor in for the restructuring/reorganization cost of GBP1.5b in

4QFY21 (and impact of GBP0.5b on cashflows in FY22) and its subsequent

benefit on lower depreciation and amortization. Over the last three years, JLR

had suffered from adverse product (growth led by Jaguar), market mix (decline

in China contribution), and increased capex, resulting in negative FCFF over

FY18-20. JLR has been focusing on cutting capex and cost, the benefits of which

have now started to reflect. Despite the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak, we

should see the mix normalizing, with a recovery in LR and China. India business

recovery is very strong for PVs and LCVs, whereas M&HCVs are showing

promising signs of a strong recovery in FY22E. Maintain

Buy

with a TP of

INR400/share (Mar’23E SoTP).

27 February 2021

Tata Motors

Exhibit 1: Revised Estimates

Key Assumptions

Consolidated

Net Sales

EBITDA

EBITDA Margins (%)

Net Profit

Cons EPS

JLR (IFRS, GBP M)

Volumes ('000 units) incl JV

EBITDA

EBITDA Margins (%)

Net Profit

Standalone

Volumes ('000 units)

EBITDA

EBITDA Margins (%)

Net Profit

Rev

2,469

314

12.7

-33

-8.5

401

2,382

12.1

486

5.2

(38.1)

FY21E

Old

2,469

314

12.7

-29

-7.7

401

2,382

12.1

486

5.2

(38.1)

Chg (%)

0.0

0bp

10.9

0.0

0bp

0.5

0.0

0bp

0.0

Rev

3,084

432

14.0

23.4

463

3,200

13.9

995

699

7.8

(3.7)

FY22E

Old

3,084

432

14.0

20.4

463

3,200

13.9

879

699

7.8

(3.7)

Chg (%)

0.0

0bp

14.7

0.0

0bp

13.2

0.0

0.1

0bp

-1.3

Source: MOFSL

Exhibit 2: TTMT: Sum of the parts based target price

INR b

SoTP Value

Tata Motors – Standalone

JLR (Adj. for R&D capitalization)

JLR - Chery JV EBITDA Share

Tata Motors Finance

Total EV

Less: Net Debt (ex-TMFL)

Tata Sons

Total Equity Value

Fair Value (INR/share) - ordinary share

Upside (%)

Valuation Parameter

EV/EBITDA

P/BV

Multiple (x)

1.0

FY22E

FY23E

50% discount

Fully diluted

644

919

586

692

1,292

1,684

469

301

147

969

1,530

253

400

-21.6

23.7

Source: Company, MOFSL

Exhibit 3: ‘Reimagine’ will focus on increasing market share in more profitable segments

Source: Company

27 February 2021

Tata Motors

Exhibit 4: JLR is targeting to grow share in profitable products in China, UK & EU

Source: Company

Exhibit 5: JLR would phase out pure ICEs by FY26 and is targeting share of BEVs at 20% in

FY26 and 60% in FY30

Source: Company

27 February 2021

Tata Motors

Exhibit 6: JLR is targeting to rationalize number of architectures from six to three architectures with flexi architectures for LR

and pure BV for Jaguar (FY25 onwards)

Source: Company

Exhibit 7: It expects 80% of FY27 volumes to come from these three new architectures

Source: Company

27 February 2021

Tata Motors

Exhibit 8: Timeline for electrification for JLR under ‘Reimagine’ strategy

Source: Company

Exhibit 9: JLR is right-sizing its operational infrastructure keeping in mind focus on more profitable segment

Source: Company

27 February 2021

Tata Motors

Exhibit 10: ‘Refocus’ program builds-up on success of Project Charge+ and is targeting 3pp EBIT contribution by FY24

Source: Company

Exhibit 11: Cashflow break-even reduced to ~400k units supported by Project Charge and ‘Refocus’

Source: Company

27 February 2021

Tata Motors

Exhibit 12: With benefit of ‘Refocus’, architecture consolidation and controlled capex, it expects to be net cash from FY25

Source: Company

Exhibit 13: Roadmap to over 10% EBIT margins by FY26 with 3pp contribution from ‘Refocus’ program and >3pp from

architecture consolidation

Source: Company

27 February 2021

Tata Motors

Exhibit 14: Financial targets under ‘Reimagine’ – GBP30b revenues, 10% EBIT Margins & net cash positive by FY26

Source: Company

27 February 2021

Tata Motors

Story in charts

Exhibit 15: JLR volume growth trajectory

JLR volumes (incl JV; '000 units)

15.6

9.5

10.4

5.4

15.4

18.9

Exhibit 16: JLR EBITDA and EBITDA margin trend

EBITDA (GBP m)

EBITDA margin (%)

7.8

14.1

12.1

(10.8)

(7.1)

(23.6)

11.2

8.2

8.7

12.1

13.9

14.7

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E

Source: Company, MOFSL

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E

Source: Company, MOFSL

Exhibit 17: JLR’s CFO/capex/FCF trend (GBP m)

CFO

Capex

FCF

Exhibit 18: Standalone business growth path over FY20-22E

Revenues (INR b)

30.6

18.0

5.9

3.4

-36.7

19.5

5.8

Growth (%)

47.5

21.1

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E

Source: Company, MOFSL

Exhibit 19: Standalone EBITDA and margin trend

EBITDA (INR b)

7.9

4.1

4.9

1.3

-2.2

(8)

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E

Source: Company, MOFSL

8.3

5.2

EBITDA Margins (%)

7.8

9.2

Exhibit 20: Consolidated earnings trajectory

EPS (INR)

43.6

-1.1

38.4

-12.0

19.8

-48.4

22.9

15.7

-119.0

-4.4

-25.3

-66.3

Growth (%)

480.5

32.8

40.3

23.4

-8.5

-374.5

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E

Source: Company, MOFSL

27 February 2021

Tata Motors

Key operating metrics

Snapshot of Revenue model

000 units

JLR

Jaguar

Growth (%)

% of Total JLR Vols

Land Rover

Growth (%)

% of Total JLR Vols

Total JLR Volumes (incl JV)

Growth (%)

ASP (GBP '000/unit)

Growth (%)

Net JLR Sales (GBP b)

Growth (%)

INDIA

MH&CVs

Growth (%)

LCVs

Growth (%)

Total CVs

Growth (%)

Total PVs

Growth (%)

Total Volumes

Growth (%)

ASP (INR 000/unit)

Net S/A Sales (INR b)

Growth (%)

FY14

37.2

18.4

351

11.6

81.6

430

15.5

6.3

22.8

122

-19.7

299

-30.3

421

-27.5

145

-36.5

567

-30.1

605

343

-23.4

FY15

-3.5

16.1

394

12.4

83.0

475

10.4

3.0

12.8

143

16.5

222

-25.8

365

-13.5

138

-5.3

502

-11.4

723

363

5.9

FY16

102

33.5

18.8

442

12.2

81.2

544

14.6

-5.8

1.9

176

23.6

205

-7.7

381

4.6

152

10.1

533

6.1

804

428

18.0

FY17

179

75.1

29.8

422

-4.5

70.2

601

10.4

4.0

9.2

176

-0.3

209

2.1

385

1.0

157

3.9

542

1.8

817

443

3.4

FY18

176

-1.4

27.8

457

8.3

72.2

634

5.4

3.9

5.9

192

9.2

257

22.7

449

16.6

190

20.8

639

17.8

906

579

30.6

FY19

177

0.7

31.4

388

-15.2

68.6

565

-10.8

0.8

-6.1

225

17.1

295

14.9

520

15.9

211

11.2

731

14.5

946

692

19.5

FY20

144

-18.7

27.5

381

-1.7

72.5

525

-7.1

1.3

-5.1

124

-44.7

216

-26.7

341

-34.5

133

-37.3

473

-35.3

926

438

-36.7

FY21E

-40.6

21.3

316

-17.2

78.7

401

-23.6

21.0

-14.6

-26.0

180

-16.6

272

-20.1

213

60.9

486

2.6

955

464

5.8

FY22E

8.9

20.2

370

17.1

79.8

463

15.4

1.0

17.7

143

55.2

225

25.0

368

35.2

331

55.2

699

44.0

978

684

47.5

FY23E

6.3

19.9

400

8.2

80.1

499

7.8

1.5

9.3

182

27.8

268

19.0

451

22.4

383

15.6

834

19.2

994

829

21.1

27 February 2021

Tata Motors

Financials and valuations

Income Statement (Consolidated)

Y/E March

2016

Total Income

27,30,456

Change (%)

3.8

Expenditure

23,12,693

EBITDA

4,17,763

% of Net Sales

15.3

Depreciation

1,67,108

EBIT

2,50,655

Product Dev. Exp.

34,688

Interest

48,891

Other Income

8,854

EO Exp/(Inc)

18,504

Forex Gain/ (Loss)

-16,169

PBT

1,41,258

Tax

30,251

Effective Rate (%)

21.4

Reported PAT

1,11,007

Change (%)

-21.0

% of Net Sales

4.1

Minority Interest

-989

Share of profit of associate

5,775

Net Profit

1,15,793

Adj. PAT

1,30,334

Change (%)

-7.2

Balance Sheet (Cons.)

Y/E March

Share Capital

Reserves

Net Worth

Loans

Deferred Tax

Capital Employed

Gross Fixed Assets

Less: Depreciation

Net Fixed Assets

Capital WIP

Goodwill

Investments

Curr.Assets

Inventory

Sundry Debtors

Cash & Bank Bal.

Loans & Advances

Current Liab. & Prov.

Sundry Creditors

Other Liabilities

Net Current Assets

Appl. of Funds

E: MOFSL Estimates

2017

26,96,925

-1.2

23,27,802

3,69,124

13.7

1,79,050

1,90,074

34,136

42,380

7,545

-11,146

-39,101

93,148

32,512

34.9

60,636

-45.4

2.2

-1,022

14,930

74,544

67,288

-48.4

2018

29,15,505

8.1

25,77,462

3,38,043

11.6

2,15,536

1,22,507

35,319

46,818

39,576

-19,751

11,853

1,11,550

43,419

38.9

68,131

12.4

2.3

-1,025

22,783

89,889

77,826

15.7

2019

30,19,384

3.6

27,21,436

2,97,948

9.9

2,35,906

62,042

42,246

57,586

29,653

2,96,516

-9,059

-3,13,712

-24,375

7.8

-2,89,337

-524.7

-9.6

-1,020

2,095

-2,88,262

-14,785

-119.0

2020

26,10,680

-13.5

23,71,537

2,39,143

9.2

2,14,254

24,889

41,885

72,433

29,732

28,714

-17,387

-1,05,800

3,953

-3.7

-1,09,752

-62.1

-4.2

-956

-10,000

-1,20,709

-90,921

515.0

2021E

2,469,281

-5.4

2,155,606

313,675

12.7

236,118

77,557

42,406

79,791

26,825

152,710

26,828

-143,697

34,660

-24.1

-178,357

62.5

-7.2

-778

-5,266

-184,400

-32,628

-64.1

2022E

3,084,100

24.9

2,652,179

431,921

14.0

240,476

191,445

45,138

75,593

25,200

9,951

105,864

14,779

14.0

91,085

-151.1

3.0

-274

-1,249

89,563

-374.5

(INR m)

2023E

3,520,048

14.1

3,003,564

516,484

14.7

263,806

252,678

47,587

68,192

21,571

10,150

168,620

43,735

25.9

124,885

37.1

3.5

-366

1,122

125,641

40.3

(INR m)

2023E

7,659

676,101

683,761

1,006,782

-35,160

1,664,934

3,379,255

2,108,513

1,270,741

250,000

7,771

45,952

1,778,164

453,267

212,167

557,041

532,741

1,687,694

848,669

646,146

90,470

1,664,934

2016

6,792

7,82,732

7,89,524

6,19,612

44,748

14,58,212

19,76,068

9,11,348

10,64,720

2,59,189

7,598

2,37,670

11,02,234

3,26,557

1,35,709

3,04,604

2,54,033

12,13,200

6,15,618

4,60,226

-1,10,965

14,58,212

2017

6,792

5,73,827

5,80,619

7,44,891

11,740

13,41,781

16,28,389

6,75,681

9,52,708

3,36,988

6,733

2,03,379

12,37,735

3,50,853

1,40,756

3,60,779

2,91,474

13,95,762

6,25,326

6,22,314

-1,58,027

13,41,782

2018

6,792

9,47,487

9,54,279

7,79,944

19,671

17,59,144

21,56,778

9,17,952

12,38,826

4,00,335

1,165

2,08,128

14,23,465

4,21,377

1,98,933

3,46,139

4,45,929

15,12,775

7,69,398

5,38,766

-89,309

17,59,144

2019

6,792

5,95,003

6,01,795

9,11,239

-36,601

14,81,664

22,58,724

11,53,858

11,04,866

3,18,838

7,478

1,57,707

14,31,544

3,90,137

1,89,962

3,26,488

5,12,867

15,38,770

7,16,907

6,01,347

-1,07,226

14,81,664

2020

7,195

6,23,590

6,30,785

9,96,782

-35,160

16,00,542

26,01,413

13,68,113

12,33,301

3,56,223

7,771

1,63,085

14,06,255

3,74,569

1,11,727

3,37,270

5,69,741

15,66,092

6,63,982

6,51,452

-1,59,837

16,00,542

2021E

7,659

464,752

472,411

996,782

-35,160

1,442,946

2,857,326

1,604,231

1,253,095

250,000

7,771

46,079

1,233,688

304,432

135,303

311,264

469,741

1,347,688

622,394

556,165

-114,000

1,442,946

2022E

7,659

554,315

561,974

996,782

-35,160

1,532,782

3,104,864

1,844,707

1,260,157

250,000

7,771

44,830

1,459,071

380,231

168,992

389,159

502,741

1,489,047

777,362

542,693

-29,976

1,532,782

27 February 2021

Tata Motors

Financials and valuations

Ratios (Con.)

Y/E March

Basic (INR)

EPS

EPS Fully Diluted

EPS Growth (%)

Cash EPS

Book Value (Rs/Share)

DPS

Payout (Incl. Div. Tax) %

Valuation (x)

Consolidated P/E

EV/EBITDA

EV/Sales

Price to Book Value

Dividend Yield (%)

Profitability Ratios (%)

RoE

RoCE

RoIC

Turnover Ratios

Debtors (Days)

Inventory (Days)

Creditors (Days)

Asset Turnover (x)

Leverage Ratio

Debt/Equity (x)

Cash Flow Statement

Y/E March

OP/(Loss) before Tax

Int/Div. Received

Depreciation

Direct Taxes Paid

(Inc)/Dec in WC

Other Items

CF from Op Activity

Extra-ordinary Items

CF after EO Items

(Inc)/Dec in FA+CWIP

Free Cash Flow

(Pur)/Sale of Invest.

CF from Inv Activity

Issue of Shares

Inc/(Dec) in Debt

Interest Paid

Dividends Paid

CF from Fin Activity

Inc/(Dec) in Cash

Add: Beginning Bal.

Closing Balance

E: MOFSL Estimates

2016

38.4

-12.0

87.6

232.5

0.0

7.9

2.7

0.4

1.3

0.0

19.3

15.1

34.5

1.9

0.8

2017

19.8

-48.4

72.5

171.0

0.0

15.3

3.3

0.4

1.8

0.0

9.8

9.2

22.6

2.0

1.3

2018

22.9

15.7

86.4

281.0

0.0

13.3

3.7

0.4

1.1

0.0

10.1

6.4

12.0

1.7

0.8

2019

-4.4

-119.0

65.1

177.2

0.0

-69.9

4.9

0.5

1.7

0.0

-1.9

5.2

7.7

2.0

1.5

2020

-25.3

480.5

34.3

175.3

0.0

-12.0

6.7

0.6

1.7

0.0

-14.8

3.7

3.6

1.6

2021E

-8.5

-66.3

53.1

123.4

0.0

-37.9

6.0

0.8

2.6

0.0

-5.9

8.5

12.2

1.7

2.1

2022E

23.4

-374.5

86.2

146.7

0.0

13.8

4.2

0.6

2.2

0.0

17.3

12.5

19.6

2.0

1.8

2023E

32.8

40.3

101.7

178.5

1.0

3.1

9.8

3.2

0.5

1.8

0.3

20.2

12.7

22.5

2.1

1.5

2016

1,10,238

8,258

1,70,142

-19,939

25,515

96,855

3,91,069

8,857

3,99,925

-3,26,232

73,693

-68,134

-3,94,366

74,332

-47,483

-57,039

-1,739

-31,930

-26,371

2,11,283

1,84,913

2017

75,566

36,653

1,79,050

-18,951

32,542

8,954

3,13,814

-11,822

3,01,992

-3,04,135

-2,143

-76,664

-3,80,799

1,16,583

-53,363

-1,212

62,053

-16,754

1,84,913

1,68,159

2018

90,914

39,542

2,15,536

-30,212

-64,337

23,333

2,74,776

-36,202

2,38,574

-3,50,486

-1,11,912

86,031

-2,64,456

75,183

-54,106

-960

20,117

-5,764

1,68,159

1,62,395

2019

-2,87,242

-4,413

2,35,906

-26,594

-72,123

64,994

-89,472

2,78,379

1,88,908

-3,52,363

-1,63,455

1,57,691

-1,94,672

1,59,302

-70,051

-947

88,304

82,540

1,62,395

2,44,934

2020

-1,19,752

-11,913

2,14,254

-17,489

50,636

1,25,105

2,40,841

25,488

2,66,329

-2,95,306

-28,976

-46,397

-3,41,702

38,888

81,318

-75,184

-568

44,453

-30,920

2,44,934

2,14,014

2021E

-184,400

26,825

236,118

-34,660

-71,843

778

-27,182

146,334

119,152

-149,690

-30,538

117,005

-32,685

26,026

-79,791

-53,764

32,703

214,014

246,717

2022E

89,563

25,200

240,476

-14,779

-6,129

274

334,605

-49,754

284,851

-247,538

37,313

1,249

-246,289

-75,593

-37,031

246,717

209,686

2023E

125,641

21,571

263,806

-43,735

47,437

366

415,087

-274,390

140,696

-1,122

-275,513

10,000

-68,192

-3,855

-62,047

77,527

209,686

287,213

27 February 2021

Tata Motors

Explanation of Investment Rating

Investment Rating

Expected return (over 12-month)

BUY

>=15%

SELL

< - 10%

NEUTRAL

< - 10 % to 15%

UNDER REVIEW

Rating may undergo a change

NOT RATED

We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation

*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall within

following 30 days take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.

Disclosures

The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations).

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buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein. (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other

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specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOFSL even

though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report

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Research Analyst views on Subject Company may vary based on Fundamental

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from MOFSL research activity and therefore it can have an independent view with regards to Subject Company for which Research Team have expressed their views.

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This report is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity resident in a state, country or any jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability

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to which this document relates is only available to professional investor and will be engaged only with professional investors.” Nothing here is an offer or solicitation of these

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located in Hong Kong & are not conducting Research Analysis in Hong Kong.

For U.S.

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) is not a registered broker - dealer under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the"1934 act") and under

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The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S.

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In Singapore, this report is being distributed by Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Ltd (“MOCMSPL”) (Co.Reg. NO. 201129401Z) which is a holder of a capital markets

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inform MOCMSPL.

Specific Disclosures

1 MOFSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives does not have financial interest in the subject company, as they do not have equity holdings in the subject company.

2 MOFSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives do not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company

3 MOFSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives have not received compensation/other benefits from the subject company in the past 12 months

4 MOFSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives do not have material conflict of interest in the subject company at the time of publication of research report

5 Research Analyst has not served as director/officer/employee in the subject company

6 MOFSL has not acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months

7 MOFSL has not received compensation for investment banking/ merchant banking/brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months

8 MOFSL has not received compensation for other than investment banking/merchant banking/brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months

9 MOFSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report

10 MOFSL has not engaged in market making activity for the subject company

27 February 2021

Tata Motors

********************************************************************************************************************************

The associates of MOFSL may have:

- financial interest in the subject company

- actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company

- received compensation/other benefits from the subject company in the past 12 months

- other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the

specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOFSL even

though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report.

- acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months

- be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the

company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies)

- received compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months for investment banking / merchant banking / brokerage services or from other than said services.

The associates of MOFSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report

Above disclosures include beneficial holdings lying in demat account of MOFSL which are opened for proprietary investments only. While calculating beneficial holdings, It does not

consider demat accounts which are opened in name of MOFSL for other purposes (i.e holding client securities, collaterals, error trades etc.). MOFSL also earns DP income from

clients which are not considered in above disclosures.

Analyst Certification

The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the

research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report.

Terms & Conditions:

This report has been prepared by MOFSL and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and

may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent

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report is prepared solely for informational purpose and does not constitute an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial

instruments for the clients. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. MOFSL will not treat recipients as

customers by virtue of their receiving this report.

Disclaimer:

The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or

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The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment

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the information and opinions contained in this document. The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and

should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make

modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval. MOFSL, its associates, their directors and the employees may from

time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform or seek to

perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities functions as a

separate, distinct and independent of each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document. This report has been prepared on the basis of

information that is already available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of MOFSL. The views expressed are those of the analyst, and the Company may or

may not subscribe to all the views expressed therein. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on,

directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or

entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law,

regulation or which would subject MOFSL to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in

all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.

Neither the Firm, not its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost

revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information.

The person accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt MOFSL or any of its

affiliates or employees from, any and all responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not to hold MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees responsible for any such

misuse and further agrees to hold MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses, costs, damages,

expenses that may be suffered by the person

accessing this information due to any errors and delays.

Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022 71934200/ 022-71934263;

Website

www.motilaloswal.com.CIN

no.: L67190MH2005PLC153397.Correspondence Office Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road,

Malad(West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 7188 1000.

Registration Nos.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL)*: INZ000158836(BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst:

INH000000412. AMFI: ARN - 146822; Investment Adviser: INA000007100; Insurance Corporate Agent: CA0579;PMS:INP000006712. Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company

Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670); PMS and Mutual Funds are offered through MOAMC which is group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Wealth

Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409) is offered through MOWML, which is a group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is

a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs,Insurance Products and IPOs.Real Estate is offered through Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt.

Ltd. which is a group company of MOFSL. Private Equity is offered through Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd which is a group company of MOFSL.

Research & Advisory services is backed by proper research. Please read the Risk Disclosure Document prescribed by the Stock Exchanges carefully before investing. There is no

assurance or guarantee of the returns. Investment in securities market is subject to market risk, read all the related documents carefully before investing. Details of Compliance

Officer: Name: Neeraj Agarwal, Email ID: na@motilaloswal.com, Contact No.:022-71881085.

* MOSL has been amalgamated with Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) w.e.f August 21, 2018 pursuant to order dated July 30, 2018 issued by Hon'ble National

Company Law Tribunal, Mumbai Bench.

27 February 2021