13 May 2021
4QFY21 Results Update | Sector: Telecom
Airtel Africa
BSE SENSEX
48,691
S&P CNX
14,697
Strong performance in Nigeria; growth in Data revenue
remains robust across geographies
Operating profit remains flat; lower finance/tax charges boost PAT
growth:
Airtel Africa’s revenue/EBITDA fell 2% each QoQ to
USD1,038m/USD492m in 4QFY21, with a 20bp decline in margin to 47.4%.
On a constant currency (CC) basis, revenue/EBITDA rose 2%/4% QoQ to
USD1,058m/USD506m (in line). EBITDA margin improved 90bp QoQ to
47.8%. Performance remained flattish QoQ as ARPU increased by 1% to
USD3, while net subscriber base declined
by
0.6% to 118.1m. Reported PAT
rose 69% QoQ to USD154m
due to lower (down 19%/27% QoQ) finance/tax
charges, leading to
PAT benefits. Monthly churn fell to 3.9%, which is the
lowest in the past four years (v/s 5% in 3QFY21). Net debt/EBITDA for FY21
stood at 2x (v/s 2.1x in FY20). FCF rose 42.8% YoY to USD647m in FY21.
Nigeria drove growth, but was offset by East/Francophone Africa:
Geography-wise, Nigeria revenue/EBITDA grew 7%/9% QoQ (in CC terms) to
USD441m/USD242m. This was mainly led by a 6%/16% improvement in
Voice/Data ARPU, while its subscriber base declined by 6%. East Africa’s
performance remained flat QoQ, with revenue/EBITDA at
USD373m/USD171m (in CC terms) due to a 5% QoQ decline in revenue from
the Voice segment (as ARPU fell 4% QoQ, while its subscriber base stood flat
QoQ), offset by 7% growth in Data revenue. In CC terms, Francophone
Africa’s revenue/EBITDA grew 0.4%/1% QoQ to USD250m/USD105m as the
6% growth in subscriber base was offset by a 5% decline in ARPU. Voice
revenue declined 2% QoQ, while Data revenue grew by 8%.
Data revenue shows the highest growth:
Across segments, Data revenue
showed the highest (9% QoQ) growth at USD322m (in CC terms) on the back
of strong ARPU growth (+13% to USD2.7), while its Data subscriber base
stood flat at 41m. Revenue for the Voice segment fell 2% QoQ to USD557m,
driven by a 1% decline in subscriber growth to 118m, while ARPU was flat at
USD1.6. Revenue for Mobile Money segment remained flat QoQ as ARPU
declined 5% QoQ to USD1.7, offset by marginal growth in its subscriber base
to 22m.
Highlights from the management commentary:
a)
Growth engines:
Data
and mobile money remain the growth engines, with annual growth in excess
of 30%. The cost of traditional banking remains high in Africa, providing an
opportunity for Airtel Mobile Money. b)
Francophone:
The region is turning
a key growth contributor in Africa. Data services grew 32% in FY21 led by
expansion of 4G networks (65% sties on 4G network). Mobile Money grew
48% YoY, with strong growth in the DRC region. c)
Capex and deleveraging:
Capex target stands at USD650-700m annually and will be utilized mostly
towards modernization of its network, growth of cell sites and fiber
footprint for towers, and increase in 4G coverage. FCF has been strong at
USD647m. Leverage reduced to 2x in FY21 from 9x in FY17. d)
Growth
opportunities:
Voice ARPU can grow further as customer voice service
utilization still remains low (v/s global average).
Aliasgar Shakir - Research Analyst
(Aliasgar.Shakir@motilaloswal.com);
Research Analyst: Suhel Shaikh
(Suhel.Ahmad@MotilalOswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Airtel Africa
Valuation and view:
Airtel Africa has a market capitalization of USD3.5b and EV
(including lease obligation) of USD7b, with an implied EV/EBITDA multiple of
3.2x/2.7x (including lease obligation) on FY22E/FY23E EBITDA. The company’s
capability to generate strong FCF (USD647m during FY21) will aid in further
deleveraging. Our SoTP-based TP for BHARTI stands at INR720/share, including
INR125/share for Airtel Africa.
Highlights from the management interaction
Operational highlights
License fees:
In FY21, the company paid for renewal of its Telecom license in
Nigeria (900MHz and 1800MHz) and Uganda. It also bought limited spectrum in
Zambia, Chad, and DRC.
Airtel Money:
About 80-85% of transactions are from the cash in-cash out service,
while the rest is from international money transfers and merchant-related services.
Growth engines:
Data and mobile money remain the growth engines, with
annual growth in excess of 30%.
Network coverage
increased, led by wide distribution of services, along with a
network rollout of fiber-RAN.
Mobile Money:
The cost of traditional banking remains high in Africa, providing
an opportunity for Airtel Mobile Money, led by its wide spread of agents. Overall
penetration in Africa is 28% (excluding Nigeria, as it yet to receive a license to
operate in Nigeria).
Partnership:
Transactional value increased by 46% YoY in FY21. Mastercard and
RISE were signed as new strategic partners in Airtel Africa’s Mobile Money business.
Monetization:
The company has signed deals for over 1,200 towers at USD808m
and is further looking to monetize its fiber assets and data centers.
Currency:
In CC terms, consolidated revenue grew 19% in FY21, while reported
revenue grew 14% due to weakening of currencies across African nations.
Nigeria
introduced a new SIM registration rule. The company has collected 23m
national identification numbers (NIM) and is onboarding new customers, leading
to strong subscriber growth.
East Africa:
Voice/Data grew, led by investments in networks and distribution.
4G is now available at 77% sites (v/s 66% in FY20).
Francophone:
The region is turning a key growth contributor in Africa. Data services
grew 32% in FY21 due to the expansion of 4G networks (65% sties on 4G network).
Mobile Money grew 48% YoY, with strong growth in the DRC region.
Capex
was lower than target (USD650-700m annually) due to COVID-related
logistic challenges. The same will be utilized mostly towards modernization of its
network, growth of cell sites and fiber footprint for towers, and increase in 4G
coverage.
Dividend policy:
Dividend will grow in mid-high single-digits (on a base of four
cents/share) until leverage falls below 2x on a sustainable basis.
Deleveraging:
FCF has been strong at USD647m. The company has been
deleveraging to 2x in FY21 from 9x in FY17.
Growth opportunities:
Voice ARPU can grow further as customer voice service
utilization still remains low (v/s global average). The Telecom sector’s
contribution to GDP remains low at 1.5-2% in Africa (and has potential to grow
by ~2ppts). The management is currently focused on growth opportunities in its
existing 14 countries and not in other nations.
Business outlook
13 May 2021
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Airtel Africa
Exhibit 1: Airtel Africa’s consolidated performance
Bharti Africa - In constant currency
Revenue
Total Expenditure
EBITDA
EBITDA margin
Depreciation
ARPU (USD)
Subscriber base (’000s)
4QY20
870
519
382
44%
155
2.7
110,604
3QFY21
1,038
554
487
47%
176
2.9
118,903
4QFY21
1,058
555
506
47.8%
179
3.0
118,192
YoY (%)
21.6
6.9
32.5
391.8
15.5
11.1
6.9
QoQ (%)
1.9
0.2
3.9
90.9
1.7
3.4
-0.6
4QFY21E
1,070
565
505
47%
(USD m)
Variance (%)
-1.1
-1.7
0.1
60
3.0
1.0
121,281
-2.5
Source: MOFSL, Company
(USD m)
YoY (%)
QoQ (%)
15.5
-1.6
7.9
-1.3
25.2
-2.0
368.4
-18.4
14.5
-1.1
-29.3
-18.8
-66.7
-50.0
121.6
7.5
205.0
-27.4
100.0
69.2
Source: MOFSL, Company
YoY (%)
22.8
24.1
16.3
21.6
44.2
50.0
-56bp
650bp
944bp
QoQ (%)
6.5
-0.8
0.4
8.5
-0.6
1.0
101bp
11bp
23bp
Exhibit 2: Airtel Africa’s consolidated performance (reported currency)
Bharti Africa - in reported currency
Revenue
Total Expenditure
EBITDA
EBITDA margin (%)
Depreciation
Net Finance Cost
Other Income
PBT
Tax
PAT
4QY20
899
506
393
43.7%
152
147
3
97
20
77
3QFY21
1,055
553
502
47.6%
176
128
2
200
84
91
4QFY21
1,038
546
492
47.4%
174
104
1
215
61
154
Exhibit 3: Consolidated segment-wise summary (USD m) for Airtel Africa
In constant currency (USD m)
Regional revenue
Nigeria
East Africa
Rest of Africa
Regional EBITDA
Nigeria
East Africa
Rest of Africa
Regional EBITDA margin
Nigeria
East Africa
Rest of Africa
Africa Consolidated (in CC USD m)
Segmental revenue
Voice Revenue
Data Revenue
Mobile Money Revenue
Segmental ARPUs
Voice ARPU
Data ARPU
Mobile Money ARPU
Segmental subscribers (m)
Voice Subscribers
Data Subscriber
Mobile Money Subscribers
Segmental KPIs
Subscriber base (m)
Net additions (QoQ) (m)
Monthly Churn
ARPU (blended)
4QY20
359
299
215
199
120
70
55.4%
40.1%
32.6%
3QFY21
414
374
249
223
174
104
53.9%
46.5%
41.8%
4QFY21
441
371
250
242
173
105
54.9%
46.6%
42.0%
494
245
81
1.5
2.4
1.6
111
35
18
111
3.5
5.3%
2.7
566
295
111
1.6
2.4
1.8
119
41
21
119
2.5
5.0%
2.9
557
322
112
1.6
2.7
1.7
118
41
22
118
-0.7
3.9%
3.0
12.8
31.4
38.3
6.7
12.5
6.3
6.9
14.5
18.5
6.9
-120.5
-26.4
11.1
-1.6
9.2
0.9
0.0
12.5
-5.6
-0.6
-0.1
1.0
-0.6
-128.1
-22.0
3.4
Source: Company
13 May 2021
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Airtel Africa
Exhibit 4: Airtel Africa’s consolidated region-wise performance
Region-wise performance (in CC USD m)
Nigeria | Segmental performance
Voice Revenue
Voice ARPU
Voice Subscribers
Data Revenue
Data ARPU
Data Subscribers
Other KPIs
Subscriber base (m)
Net additions (m)
Monthly Churn
ARPU (blended)
East Africa | Segmental performance
Voice Revenue
Voice ARPU
Voice Subscribers (m)
Data Revenue
Data ARPU
Data Subscribers (m)
Other KPIs
Subscriber base (m)
Net additions (m)
Monthly Churn
ARPU (blended)
Rest of Africa | Segmental performance
Voice Revenue
Voice ARPU
Voice Subscribers (m)
Data Revenue
Data ARPU
Data Subscribers (m)
Other KPIs
Subscriber base (m)
Net additions (m)
Monthly Churn
ARPU (blended)
*Blended ARPU includes Mobile Money ARPU as well
4QY20
222
1.8
42
114
2.4
9
42
1.9
5.8%
2.9
3QFY21
245
1.8
44
141
2.5
19
44
0.4
5.4%
3.1
4QFY21
251
1.9
42
159
2.9
18
42
-2.5
2.0%
3.4
YoY (%)
13.1
5.6
0.5
39.5
20.8
88.8
0.5
-231.0
-65.5
17.2
QoQ (%)
2.4
5.6
-5.6
12.8
16.0
-6.2
-5.6
-730.6
-63.0
9.7
147
1.0
49
79
2.1
9
49
1.3
4.7%
2.1
179
1.1
53
90
2.0
16
53
1.3
4.6%
2.4
170
1.1
53
96
2.0
16
53
0.5
4.5%
2.3
15.6
10.0
9.2
21.5
-4.8
80.2
9.2
-62.2
-4.3
9.5
-5.0
0.0
0.9
6.7
0.0
3.5
0.9
-64.5
-2.2
-4.2
127
2.1
20
51
3.3
20
20
0.3
6.0%
3.6
140
2.2
22
63
3.6
22
22
0.8
5.5%
3.9
137
2.0
23
68
3.5
23
23
1.3
5.9%
3.7
7.9
-4.8
14.5
33.3
6.1
14.5
14.5
342.5
-1.7
2.8
-2.1
-9.1
6.0
7.9
-2.8
6.0
6.0
64.7
7.3
-5.1
Source: Company
13 May 2021
4
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Airtel Africa
Key exhibits
Exhibit 5: Revenue from Africa improves 2% QoQ CC
Revenue (USD m)
7%
3%
-4%
2% 1%
-4%
-3%
QoQ growth (%)
Exhibit 6: EBITDA margin expands 90bp QoQ CC
EBITDA (USD b)
EBITDA margin (%)
13%
6% 5%
8%
3%
-2%
47.8%
41.6%
43.3% 44.0% 43.9% 43.9% 45.3%
2%
33.1%
43.3% 43.5% 45.0% 44.0% 46.9%
35.5% 42.7%
Exhibit 7: Voice ARPU stood at USD1.6
Voice min (b)
Voice ARPU ($)
Exhibit 8: Data ARPU increases to USD2.7
Data traffic mb (b)
Data ARPU ($)
Exhibit 9: Blended ARPU improves to USD3
ARPU ($)
3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.9
3.7
3.1
3.2 3.2
3.0
2.8 2.9
2.8
3.0
2.8 2.9
2.6 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.6
Source: MOFSL, Company
13 May 2021
5
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Airtel Africa
NOTES
13 May 2021
6
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Airtel Africa
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Airtel Africa
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7
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Airtel Africa
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modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval. MOFSL, its associates, their directors and the employees may from
time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform or seek to
perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities functions as a
separate, distinct and independent of each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document. This report has been prepared on the basis of
information that is already available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of MOFSL. The views expressed are those of the analyst, and the Company may or
may not subscribe to all the views expressed therein. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on,
directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or
entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law,
regulation or which would subject MOFSL to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in
all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.
Neither the Firm, not its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost
revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information.
The person accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt MOFSL or any of its
affiliates or employees from, any and all responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not to hold MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees responsible for any such
misuse and further agrees to hold MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses, costs, damages, expenses that may be suffered by the person
accessing this information due to any errors and delays.
Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022 71934200/ 022-71934263;
Website
www.motilaloswal.com.
CIN No.: L67190MH2005PLC153397.Correspondence Office Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad(West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel
No: 022 7188 1000.
Registration Nos.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL)*: INZ000158836(BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst:
INH000000412. AMFI: ARN - 146822; Investment Adviser: INA000007100; Insurance Corporate Agent: CA0579 ;PMS:INP000006712. Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company
Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670); PMS and Mutual Funds are offered through MOAMC which is group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Wealth
Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409) is offered through MOWML, which is a group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is
a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs,Insurance Products and IPOs.Real Estate is offered through Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt.
Ltd. which is a group company of MOFSL. Private Equity is offered through Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd which is a group company of MOFSL.
Research & Advisory services is backed by proper research. Please read the Risk Disclosure Document prescribed by the Stock Exchanges carefully before investing. There is no
assurance or guarantee of the returns. Investment in securities market is subject to market risk, read all the related documents carefully before investing. Details of Compliance
Officer: Name: Neeraj Agarwal, Email ID: na@motilaloswal.com, Contact No.:022-71881085.
* MOSL has been amalgamated with Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) w.e.f August 21, 2018 pursuant to order dated July 30, 2018 issued by Hon'ble National
Company Law Tribunal, Mumbai Bench.
13 May 2021
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