24 May 2021
4QFY21 Results Update | Sector: Cement
India Cements
Neutral
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
CMP: INR196
TP: INR185 (-6%)
Deleveraging to continue in absence of capex
Better utilization awaited
ICEM IN
308
60.9 / 0.8
211 / 107
12/14/-17
458
Financial Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E MARCH
Sales
EBITDA
Adj. PAT
EBITDA Margin (%)
Adj. EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
Ratios
Net D:E
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Payout (%)
Valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA(x)
EV/ton (USD)
Div. Yield (%)
2021 2022E 2023E
44.4
50.5
57.3
8.1
7.1
8.2
2.2
1.6
2.4
18.2
14.1
14.3
7.2
5.2
7.7
947.7
-27.5
46.6
181.3 185.5 191.6
0.5
4.0
4.6
16.8
27.3
1.1
11.3
80
0.5
0.5
2.8
3.8
19.2
37.7
1.1
12.7
79
0.5
0.4
4.0
4.6
19.7
25.7
1.0
10.7
77
0.8
India Cements (ICEM)’s 4QFY21 EBITDA came in 4% below estimate due to
higher costs. This was partly attributable to higher selling in the faraway
markets of East and Central, which offset weaker demand in South – the
company’s core market. Capacity utilization stood at just 57% in FY21.
Net debt declined 15% YoY to INR30.0b in FY21 as the company repaid
INR5.3b worth of debt on strong OCF and negligible capex.
We raise our FY22E/FY23E EPS by 5%/17%, factoring in lower interest costs
from deleveraging as the company continues to delay its capex plans. It
trades at 10.7x FY23E EV/EBITDA, which factors in an improved earnings
outlook and lower leverage, in our view. We maintain
Neutral.
4Q EBITDA up 197% YoY, but misses estimate by 4%
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Promoter
DII
FII
Others
Mar-21 Dec-20 Mar-20
28.4
28.4
28.3
9.0
9.4
8.3
13.1
12.4
12.9
49.5
49.8
50.6
Revenue/EBITDA was up 26%/197% YoY to INR14.5b/INR2.0b (+11%/-4% v/s
our estimate). Adj. PAT came in at INR716m (v/s loss of INR476m in 4QFY20)
and beat our estimate by 20% – on the back of 43% YoY decline in finance
cost.
While volumes grew 13% YoY to 2.99mt (above estimate), EBITDA/t declined
26% QoQ to INR671, weighed by a 5% QoQ increase in cost/t to INR4,178.
The cost increase was attributable to higher sales in the faraway markets of
East and Central, higher freight cost (diesel price), and higher employee cost.
Blended realization rose 11% YoY to INR4,848/t (in line with est).
FY21 rev / EBITDA / adj. PAT stood at INR44.4b/INR8.1b/INR2.2b, with YoY
change of -12%/+38%/+9.48x. On the other hand, the EBITDA margin stood
at 18.2% v/s 11.6% in FY20. Volumes declined 19% YoY to 8.90mt, while
EBITDA/t was up 71% YoY to INR906/t.
FY21 OCF/capex/FCF stood at INR10.4b/INR1.3b/INR9.1b v/s
INR4.1b/INR1.4b/INR2.8b in FY20.
ICEM announced dividend of INR1/sh v/s INR0.6/sh in FY20.
FII Includes depository receipts
Highlights from management commentary
Utilization for 4QFY21/FY21 stood at 77%/57%. 4QFY21 sales volumes stood
at 2.99mt (including 0.6mt sold in East), while FY21 sales volumes stood at
8.9mt (including 0.45mt of clinker sales).
In FY21, the company shifted its focus to the cash-and-carry sales model and
collected old outstanding receivables (INR1.8b), leading to better cash flows.
It also utilized inventory worth INR2.4b.
Prices are up INR10/bag QoQ and have remained stable in April and May.
The management expects to see another round of price hikes at INR15/bag
in the first week of June. The sales volume offtake in May is lower v/s April.
The management has guided for power and fuel cost to remain flat QoQ in
1QFY22. Employee cost was higher in 4QFY21 and is expected to decline by
INR110m/quarter on a recurring basis.
Amit Murarka - Research analyst
(Amit.Murarka@motilaloswal.com)
Research analyst - Basant Joshi
(Basant.Joshi@motilaloswal.com);
Jayant Gautam
(Jayant.Gautam@motilaloswal.com)
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
25 May 2021
1
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.