Sector Update | 7 March 2025
EMS & Consumer Durable
Amber Enterprises (INR b)
Y/E MARCH
FY25E FY26E FY27E
Sales
90.3 109.8 135.2
EBITDA
6.9 8.9 11.7
EBITDA Margin (%) 7.7 8.1 8.7
PAT
2.4 3.7 5.7
EPS (INR)
70.8 109.5 168.7
EPS Growth (%)
79.6 54.7 54.0
BV/Share (INR)
683.5 793.0 961.8
Ratios
Net D/E
0.4 0.3 0.1
RoE (%)
10.9 14.8 19.2
RoCE (%)
10.8 12.8 15.9
Valuations
P/E (x)
89.6 57.9 37.6
P/BV (x)
9.3 8.0 6.6
EV/EBITDA (x)
32.4 25.0 18.7
Compressor shortage seems well managed
The RAC industry seems to be witnessing a good start to the summer season of CY25 after
a strong performance in the last season. Our recent interaction with industry participants
suggests that secondary sales too have started picking up in the South and West regions.
The industry faced a shortage of high-value intermediaries – compressors and copper –
during 3QFY25/Jan’25, which came as a surprise to RAC manufacturers, as BIS
certifications for certain players were not extended and imports got impacted. However,
as per our interactions, most players have addressed this issue with alternate supply
arrangements, and it is expected that the situation would ease further in the coming
months. In the near term, this can impact the volumes of certain OEM and EMS companies
during 4QFY25 as the industry was not fully prepared to deal with this shortfall of
compressors, though the impact on secondary sales might be limited (peak demand is
during Apr-Jun). The industry has made representations to the government to extend BIS
certifications for certain compressor and copper suppliers until domestic capacities are not
available to meet the entire demand, and we expect a favorable decision on the same. We
maintain BUY on Amber Enterprises and Voltas and Neutral on Havells.
Voltas (INR b)
Y/E MARCH
FY25E FY26E FY27E
Sales
148.3 164.2 184.4
EBITDA
10.9 13.0 15.6
Adj. PAT
8.3 10.0 12.6
EBITA Margin (%)
7.3 7.9 8.5
Cons. Adj. EPS (INR) 25.1 30.4 38.0
EPS Gr. (%)
247.1 20.9 25.1
BV/Sh. (INR)
198.9 223.0 253.4
Ratios
Net D:E
(0.1) (0.1) (0.2)
RoE (%)
12.6 13.6 15.0
RoCE (%)
13.6 14.3 15.0
Payout (%)
25.0 25.0 25.0
Valuations
P/E (x)
55.9 46.2 37.0
P/BV (x)
7.1 6.3 5.5
EV/EBITDA (x)
42.2 35.0 28.8
Div Yield (%)
0.4 0.5 0.7
FCF Yield (%)
0.8 1.9 2.2
4Q/1Q are peak demand periods for AC manufacturers and AC EMS players
AC industry has seen good demand so far in FY25, driven by rising temperature and
increasing disposable income. In FY24, industry volumes grew by 12% YoY to around
9.4 million units. We expect a 19% CAGR in industry volume over FY24-27, with 35-
40% YoY growth expected in FY25. With annual AC demand growing at such a
healthy pace, the demand for high-value components such as compressors and
copper tubes would also grow correspondingly. Peak production for AC occurs
normally during the December-June period, accounting for nearly 80% of the annual
output. Any disruption during these months can impact overall production volumes
for AC OEMs and ODMs.
AC compressor shortage cropped up in 3QFY25/Jan’25
The Indian RAC market was impacted by the shortage of AC compressors during
3QFY25/Jan’25 due to 1) BIS certification expiry for a large Chinese player, which has
led to a halt in shipments to India since Oct’24; 2) increased AC demand in China
due to government subsidies; and 3) fears of US tariffs resulting in supplies being
diverted to the US. This could have resulted in production loss for few players during
this period. Companies with stocked inventory or alternative arrangements were
better placed at this time. As a result, companies had to shift to alternative suppliers
such as Highly and GMCC, both of which are already operating at the maximum
capacity in India and China. Among the domestic AC OEMs, major players like LG and
Daikin have in-house compressor manufacturing units and were better placed. Both
are also ramping up their in-house compressor production.
Havells India (INR b)
Y/E MARCH
FY25E FY26E FY27E
Sales
211.9 240.5 276.7
EBITDA
19.9 24.3 29.3
Adj. PAT
13.8 16.9 20.7
EBITA Margin (%)
9.4 10.1 10.6
Cons. Adj. EPS (INR) 22.0 26.9 33.1
EPS Gr. (%)
8.7 22.1 23.0
BV/Sh. (INR)
133.1 150.6 172.1
Ratios
Net D:E
(0.4) (0.4) (0.5)
RoE (%)
16.5 17.9 19.2
RoCE (%)
16.2 17.5 18.9
Payout (%)
35.0 35.0 35.0
Valuations
P/E (x)
66.3 54.3 44.1
P/BV (x)
11.0 9.7 8.5
EV/EBITDA (x)
44.2 36.0 29.5
Div Yield (%)
0.5 0.6 0.8
FCF Yield (%)
0.5 1.1 1.5
Current compressor capacities in India still too small
The compressor requirement in the Indian RAC industry is around 1.05x to 1.1x of
AC demand, reflecting the need for additional compressors due to replacements,
and maintaining buffer stock. Presently, domestic AC OEMs do not have compressor
manufacturing capacities, while MNC OEMs have in-house compressor
manufacturing capacities. The industry meets its compressor requirements of 6-
6.6m units domestically through GMCC, Highly, LG, Daikin, and Mitsubishi, while the
Research analyst –
Teena Virmani
(Teena.Virmani@MotilalOswal.com) |
Sanjeev Kumar Singh
(Sanjeev.Singh@MotilalOswal.com)
Mudit Agarwal
(Mudit.Agarwal@MotilalOswal.com) |
Prerit Jain
(Prerit.Jain@MotilalOswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
EMS & Consumer Durable
remaining (total requirement: 13.5-14m units) is met via imports. The requirement
of compressors will increase in line with growing AC demand (12-15% YoY). If BIS
certification for Highly (certification expiring by Jun’25) and GMCC (certification
expiring by Jan’26) is not extended, then the industry will be further constrained in
terms of compressor shortage. As per our discussion with industry participants, AC
industry players are expecting the continuation of BIS certification for these
companies until the domestic industry becomes capable of in-house manufacturing.
Imports and in-house production ease compressor shortage
The industry is handling this compressor shortage via imports from other countries
such as Taiwan, Japan, and Thailand and is also hopeful of importing compressors
from China on expectations of easing of BIS certifications for key players like GMCC
and Highly. Various OEMs and ODMs are currently well positioned until May’25 to
take care of peak demand. Beyond that, expansion plans for compressors are
already lined up by GMCC, Highly, LG, Daikin, and PG Electroplast over the next 1-2
years. Improved compressor manufacturing in India would also result in an increase
in local value-addition in AC manufacturing to 75% from 60% currently. AC
manufacturer VOLT is managing the situation with strategic tie-ups, proactive
procurement, and inventory optimization. AC ODM players, Amber Enterprises and
PG Electroplast, are currently not much impacted due to their diverse client profile,
MNC customer base and stocked-up inventory of compressors.
Similar situation was seen for copper tubes
The government extended the quality control order (QCO) for plain copper tubes,
allowing temporary imports to mitigate shortages. Domestic production is still
ramping up, with major players like Adani Copper, Hindalco, and Mettube working
to increase capacity, though they are not yet fully operational. By Oct’25, additional
capacity is expected to come online, which may ease the supply situation. Until
then, the industry continues to rely on imports to meet the growing demand, driven
by the increasing production of ACs.
Positioning of players in the current scenario
AC manufacturers – VOLT and HAVL:
We expect VOLT and HAVL’s RAC business
to continue to benefit given the expected strong demand in the summer season.
They are also seeing inventory stocking happening in the south region, which
will be followed by the west, east and later the north region. Though the pace of
aggression is moderate, the industry witnessed price increases from Dec’24
MoM, which could help to improve margins. Further, the compressor shortage,
if any, due to the above-stated reasons may be felt only in Jun’25.
AC ODMs – Amber Enterprises:
We expect Amber’s RAC division to continue to
benefit from strong AC demand as the summer season has started well and
channel inventory filling is also aiding overall volumes. Amber is actively working
with key clients such as LG, Samsung, Mitsubhi, Fujitsu, and Daikin among the
MNC names and leading domestic players. Global players were not impacted by
the compressor shortage during 4QFY25 due to their in-house compressor
manufacturing; hence, Amber was not impacted by the compressor shortage
issue even though it was only for a short duration. The company has sufficient
inventory to take care of demand until Apr-May’25 and expects the situation to
ease out as the industry has already made representation to the government to
extend the BIS certification for compressor suppliers. If needed, Amber is
adequately placed to put up a compressor facility.
7 March 2025
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
EMS & Consumer Durable
AC industry demand – potential J curve
The AC industry has witnessed good demand so far in FY25, driven by rising
temperature and increasing disposable income. Industry volumes grew by 12% YoY
in FY24 to ~9.4 million units. We expect a 19% CAGR in industry volumes over FY24-
27, with 35-40% YoY growth expected in FY25. Along with this, the domestic RAC
industry has witnessed a lot of initiatives over the past few years from the
government side, such as a ban on fully assembled AC imports with refrigerants, a
PMP scheme, and a PLI scheme for AC components. These initiatives have opened
up opportunities for domestic companies and increased value addition in the
domestic AC industry to 60% now from 25% at the time of PLI scheme. This is
targeted to grow to 75% by FY27.
Exhibit 1: RAC industry volumes are likely to post a CAGR of
19% over the next three years
RAC units (in m)
31.3
11.9
Growth YoY (%)
38.3
10.0
12.0
67.9
66.5
6.4
FY22
8.4
FY23
9.4
13.0
14.3
16.0
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E
Source: Company, MOFSL
69.2
67.9
Exhibit 2: Share of RAC industry at OEM and ODM levels
stands at 70%
Share at OEM/ODM level (%)
70.0
70.0
70.0
70.0
70.0
23.1
4.8
10.8
-27.8
6.5
FY19
7.2
FY20
5.2
FY21
FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E
Source: Company, MOFSL
Exhibit 3: Market share of OEM players in the RAC segment
in India
Others
28.5%
VOLT
20.5%
Exhibit 4: Volume market share of ODM companies in FY23
for domestically manufactured units
PG Electroplast
23%
Others
7%
Lloyd
10.0%
Daikin
10.0%
LG
17.0%
Blue Star
14.0%
EPACK Durable
24%
Amber
46%
Source: Company, MOFSL
Source: Company, MOFSL;
Note: VOLT and Blue Star market share as of Dec’24; for LG, Daikin,
Lloyd, it is estimated
7 March 2025
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
EMS & Consumer Durable
High-value intermediaries form ~30-35% of AC BoM
The import dependence is higher for key components of high-value intermediaries
such as compressors, copper tubes, and aluminum stock, while production of low-
value intermediaries such as control assemblies, display panels, motors, cross-flow
fans, valves, brass components, heat exchangers, sheet metal, and plastic molding
components has started ramping up domestically. Compressors constitute ~21% of
the BoM for AC, with a significant portion reliant on imports. Domestic capacity
expansion in compressors has been limited due to the high capex requirement —
INR2b-2.5b for production capacity of 1 million units.
Exhibit 5: Compressors, copper tubing form a larger proportion of RAC BoM breakup (%)
Plastic Moulting, 7%
CFF, 1%
Heat Exchanger, 23%
Sheet Metal, 8%
Motor, 9%
Copper Tubing, 10%
Compressor, 21%
PCBA, 22%
Source: Company, MOFSL
Compressor requirement is 1.05x to 1.1x of AC demand
The compressor requirement in the Indian RAC industry is 1.05x to 1.1x AC volumes,
reflecting the need for additional compressors due to production losses,
replacements, and maintaining buffer stock. With the annual AC demand growing by
12-15%, this multiplier translates into a rising need for compressors each year. This
growing demand is challenging to meet due to limited domestic production capacity.
And hence the reliance on imports remains for compressors.
With the current AC market size of 13 million units, the industry requires ~14.3
million compressors, which is currently met through 9.2 million units of imports and
5.0-5.1 million units of domestic supply, assuming domestic compressors capacities
operating at 77-80% capacity utilization. As per industry estimates, India’s
compressor manufacturing capacity is projected to reach 18 million units over the
next five years, while total compressor demand is expected to rise to 29.7 million
units by FY30. This supply-demand gap is further exacerbated by BIS certification
issues affecting key Chinese manufacturers, resulting in supply disruptions and
increasing dependence on domestic producers such as GMCC, Highly, LG, and
Daikin.
7 March 2025
4
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
EMS & Consumer Durable
Exhibit 6: Expected compressor demand in India for next three years based on 1.1x of AC
projections (units m)
Units m
AC demand
YoY %
Compressors demand (1.1x)
YoY %
FY23
8.4
31.3
9.2
31.3
FY24
9.4
11.9
10.3
11.9
FY25E
13.0
38.3
14.3
38.3
FY26E
FY27E
14.3
16.0
10.0
12.0
15.7
17.6
10.0
12.0
Source: Industry, MOFSL
Exhibit 7: Total compressor manufacturing capacity in India expected to more than double
after the completion of planned expansions over next few years (units m)
Current capacity
Total future
Future additional capacity
(FY24)
capacity
Highly
2.4
2.4
4.8
GMCC
2.2
2.2
4.4
Daikin
1.0
2.0
3.0
LG
1.0
1.0
PG Electroplast
5.0
5.0
Total Compressor Capacity in India
6.6
11.6
18.2
Source: Industry, MOFSL
Companies
Exhibit 8: Import of compressors in India – value (INR m)
Compressors fro AC (INR m)
Exhibit 9: Import of compressors in India – value (units m)
Compressors fro AC (units mn)
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, MOFSL
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, MOFSL
7 March 2025
5
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
EMS & Consumer Durable
Copper tubing requirements
India continues to rely heavily on imports for aluminum and copper tubes due to
quality and cost differences compared to China. Producing one AC requires about
5kg of copper and aluminum, resulting in a total demand of around 65,000 tons for
a market size of 13 million units.
To address this, Mettube India has committed INR3b for a 15,000-ton capacity,
while Adani Copper Tubes is investing INR4b. Hindalco is investing INR5.4b to
establish a 25,000-ton capacity for copper tubes and aluminum stock used in heat
exchangers. The company placed a large order with L&T for setting up an 850 KTPA
Greenfield alumina refinery plant in Odisha.
Until these capacities are commissioned, there is still a reliance on the import of
plain copper tubes and inner-grooved copper tubes. However, once these new
capacities are commissioned and reach scale, reliance on imports for aluminum and
copper tubes is expected to decline.
Plain copper tubes
The supply of plain copper tubes in the Indian RAC market was under pressure
due to regulatory and production challenges. The government has extended
QCO for plain copper tubes, allowing temporary imports to mitigate shortages.
Domestic production is still ramping up, with major players like Adani, Hindalco,
and Mettube working to increase capacity, though they are not yet fully
operational. By Oct’25, additional capacity is expected to come online, which
may ease the supply situation. Until then, the industry continues to rely on
imports to meet the growing demand, driven by the increasing production of
ACs.
Inner-grooved copper tubes
Currently, inner-grooved copper tubes are excluded from BIS certification,
allowing manufacturers to continue importing them without meeting stringent
domestic standards. This exemption is expected to remain in place until Mar’26,
providing temporary relief to the industry. However, there are no significant
domestic manufacturing capacities for inner-grooved copper tubes yet, and the
sector relies heavily on imports to meet demand.
7 March 2025
6
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
EMS & Consumer Durable
Benefitting from strong RAC demand, diverse client mix
Amber Enterprises is adequately positioned to benefit from strong RAC demand and its
diverse client mix. We do not expect the company to be much impacted by the compressor
shortage, as most of its key clients either have their own compressor manufacturing
facilities or have arrangements to deal with the compressor shortage. Moreover, Amber
has sufficient inventory until Apr’25 and has started procuring compressors from places
other than China. We expect Amber to continue to benefit from growth in the RAC
segment and faster growth in the electronics segment, driven by new client additions, JV
with Korea Circuit, and capacity expansions across Ascent Circuit. The company also plans
to tap a much bigger EMS market and participate in the upcoming component PLI scheme.
We maintain our estimates and BUY rating on Amber with an unchanged TP of INR7,800.
Amber Enterprises (INR b)
Y/E MARCH
FY25E
Sales
90.3
EBITDA
6.9
EBITDA Margin (%) 7.7
PAT
2.4
EPS (INR)
70.8
EPS Growth (%)
79.6
BV/Share (INR)
683.5
Ratios
Net D/E
0.4
RoE (%)
10.9
RoCE (%)
10.8
Valuations
89.6
P/E (x)
9.3
P/BV (x)
32.4
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY26E
109.8
8.9
8.1
3.7
109.5
54.7
793.0
0.3
14.8
12.8
57.9
8.0
25.0
FY27E
135.2
11.7
8.7
5.7
168.7
54.0
961.8
0.1
19.2
15.9
37.6
6.6
18.7
Amber’s consumer durable division growth momentum to continue, led by
RAC
Amber’s consumer durable division revenue grew 62% YoY in 9MFY25, driven by
strong growth in RAC segment thanks to the conversion of big MNC customers from
gas charging to full ODM/OEM solutions during the year and the addition of new
clients in both RAC and non-RAC segments. We expect the company’s RAC division
to continue to benefit from strong AC demand as the summer season has started
well and channel inventory filling is also aiding overall volumes. Amber is actively
working with key clients such as LG, Samsung, Mitsubhi, Fujitsu, and Daikin among
the MNC names as well as all leading domestic players. Global players were not
impacted by the compressor shortage in 4QFY25 due to in-house compressor
manufacturing; hence, Amber was only impacted by the issue for a short duration.
The company has sufficient inventory to take care of demand until Apr-May’25 and
expects the situation to ease out, as the industry has already made representation
to the government to extend BIS certification for compressor suppliers. If needed,
Amber is also adequately placed to set up a compressor facility. In the non-RAC
segments, the company with its JV with Resojet is set to begin mass production of
washing machines by 1HFY26. Furthermore, Amber is constantly incurring capex to
expand its product portfolio and ramp up the component segment. Considering
these measures, we expect a CAGR of 22%/27% in revenue/EBITDA over FY24-27.
Electronic segment performance to further improve once capex is over
Going ahead, electronic segment growth would be driven by both PCBA and PCB
manufacturing; hence, the company has planned incremental capex of INR6.5b for
the addition of up to 840,000 SqM annual capacity via its subsidiary, Ascent Circuit,
at Hosur, Chennai. Its subsidiary IL JIN’s JV with Korea Circuit also plans to apply for
the government’s upcoming component policy (ISM 2.0) for capex for HDI, Flex and
semiconductor substrate manufacturing. The company expects to infuse nearly
INR10b, subject to support from the central and state governments for the said
facility. Amber is targeting an asset turnover of 1.0x-1.25x from the facility. Upon
approval, the facility could add INR10-12b in revenue and improve margins to
double digits through backward integration. We expect the electronics segment’s
revenue/EBITDA to report a CAGR of 45%/73% over FY24-27.
Teena Virmani
(Teena.Virmani@MotilalOswal.com)
Research analyst –
Prerit Jain
(Prerit.Jain@MotilalOswal.com)
7 March 2025
7
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
EMS & Consumer Durable
Railways segment’s delayed revival expectation
The management expects a revival in the segment in 2HFY26, bringing the margins
back to the range of 18-22%, supported by 1) the existing order book, 2) execution
of orders for Vande Bharat and Mumbai Metro projects, 3) the commencement of
Sidwal’s greenfield facility, and 4) the set-up of the Yujin JV facility. We expect the
segment’s underperformance to persist in FY26, with growth likely afterwards. We
expect the segment’s revenue/EBITDA to clock a CAGR of 15%/12% over FY24-27.
Financial Outlook
We have baked in weaker performance of railways on both execution as well as
margins in FY25 and FY26, and expect a CAGR of 26%/33%/62% in revenue/EBITDA/
PAT over FY24-27 for Amber.
Valuation and view
The stock currently trades at 57.9x/37.6x P/E on FY26E/FY27E earnings. We reiterate
our BUY rating on the stock with a DCF-based TP of INR7,800, implying 46x P/E on a
two-year forward EPS (Mar’27E).
Key risks and concerns
Key risks and concerns include lower-than-expected demand growth in the RAC
industry; change in BEE norms making products costlier; and increased competition
across the RAC, mobility, and electronics segments.
7 March 2025
8
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
EMS & Consumer Durable
Financials and valuations – Amber Enterprises
Consolidated - Income Statement
Y/E March
Total Income from Operations
Change (%)
Raw Materials
Gross Profit
Employee Cost
Other Expenses
Total Expenditure
% of Sales
EBITDA
Margin (%)
Depreciation
EBIT
Int. and Finance Charges
Other Income
PBT bef. EO Exp.
EO Items
PBT after EO Exp.
Total Tax
Tax Rate (%)
Minority Interest
Reported PAT
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
Margin (%)
FY20
39,628
44.0
33,017
6,611
1,063
2,455
36,535
92.2
3,093
7.8
848
2,245
419
82
1,907
0
1,907
266
13.9
57
1,584
1,584
69.1
FY21
30,305
-23.5
25,135
5,170
1,021
1,947
28,102
92.7
2,203
7.3
923
1,280
410
331
1,201
0
1,201
369
30.7
17
816
816
-48.5
FY22
42,064
38.8
35,297
6,767
1,500
2,514
39,310
93.5
2,754
6.5
1,079
1,675
464
332
1,543
0
1,543
429
27.8
21
1,092
1,092
33.8
FY23
69,271
64.7
58,678
10,593
2,116
4,298
65,092
94.0
4,179
6.0
1,391
2,788
1,118
527
2,197
0
2,197
559
25.4
66
1,572
1,572
44.0
FY24
67,293
-2.9
54,999
12,293
2,572
4,802
62,374
92.7
4,919
7.3
1,865
3,054
1,670
553
1,937
0
1,937
519
26.8
89
1,329
1,329
-15.5
FY25E
90,310
34.2
73,812
16,498
3,161
6,389
83,362
92.3
6,948
7.7
2,296
4,653
2,075
727
3,305
FY26E
1,09,833
21.6
89,768
20,065
3,295
7,827
1,00,890
91.9
8,943
8.1
2,442
6,501
2,033
600
5,068
(INR m)
FY27E
1,35,203
23.1
1,10,503
24,700
4,056
8,897
1,23,456
91.3
11,747
8.7
2,673
9,074
2,041
726
7,759
0
3,305
846
25.6
72
2,386
2,386
79.6
2.6
0
5,068
1,297
25.6
80
3,691
3,691
54.7
3.4
0
7,759
1,986
25.6
88
5,685
5,685
54.0
4.2
(INR m)
FY27E
337
32,069
32,406
758
16,332
1,348
50,844
42,309
15,421
26,888
3,609
908
2,173
74,184
21,300
33,338
10,400
77
9,070
56,918
44,967
11,515
436
17,266
50,844
4.0
2.7
2.6
2.3
2.0
Consolidated - Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Equity Share Capital
Total Reserves
Net Worth
Minority Interest
Total Loans
Deferred Tax Liabilities
Capital Employed
Gross Block
Less: Accum. Deprn.
Net Fixed Assets
Goodwill on Consolidation
Capital WIP
Total Investments
Curr. Assets, Loans & Adv.
Inventory
Account Receivables
Cash and Bank Balance
Loans and Advances
Other Current Asset
Curr. Liability & Prov.
Account Payables
Other Current Liabilities
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Appl. of Funds
FY20
314
10,970
11,284
348
3,205
678
15,515
13,465
3,630
9,836
1,223
118
0
17,813
6,557
8,542
1,203
293
1,218
13,474
11,058
2,288
128
4,339
15,515
FY21
337
15,704
16,041
365
3,495
769
20,670
14,683
4,466
10,218
1,223
433
1,081
22,892
7,163
10,690
2,899
321
1,818
15,175
13,169
1,864
141
7,717
20,670
FY22
337
17,005
17,342
387
10,318
954
29,001
18,037
5,335
12,702
1,457
1,282
2,254
31,401
8,408
13,149
5,626
18
4,200
20,095
17,021
2,888
186
11,306
29,001
FY23
337
18,751
19,088
452
13,437
947
33,924
25,621
6,556
19,065
1,425
503
1,934
39,475
10,913
17,631
5,594
39
5,297
28,478
23,039
5,216
223
10,997
33,924
FY24
337
20,307
20,644
518
14,332
1,348
36,841
31,309
8,333
22,977
3,609
908
2,173
36,236
8,408
15,693
6,913
49
5,173
29,060
21,671
7,090
300
7,175
36,841
FY25E
337
22,693
23,030
591
16,332
1,348
41,300
35,309
10,531
24,778
3,609
908
2,173
48,852
14,227
22,268
5,329
51
6,977
39,020
30,036
8,693
291
9,832
41,300
FY26E
337
26,384
26,721
670
16,332
1,348
45,071
38,809
12,866
25,943
3,609
908
2,173
59,267
17,303
27,082
6,905
62
7,915
46,829
36,529
9,946
354
12,438
45,071
7 March 2025
9
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
EMS & Consumer Durable
Financials and valuations – Amber Enterprises
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
BV/Share
DPS
Payout (%)
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
P/BV
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
Dividend Yield (%)
FCF per share
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
RoIC
Working Capital Ratios
Fixed Asset Turnover (x)
Asset Turnover (x)
Inventory (Days)
Debtor (Days)
Creditor (Days)
Leverage Ratio (x)
Current Ratio
Interest Cover Ratio
Net Debt/Equity
FY20
50.4
77.3
358.8
3.2
6.4
126.0
82.1
17.7
5.1
65.2
0.1
46.8
15.0
15.0
14.7
2.9
2.6
60
79
102
1.3
5.4
0.2
FY21
24.2
51.6
476.1
0.0
0.0
262.1
123.0
13.3
7.1
97.3
0.0
14.8
6.0
6.6
5.8
2.1
1.5
86
129
159
1.5
3.1
0.0
FY22
32.4
64.4
514.7
0.0
0.0
195.8
98.5
12.3
5.2
79.3
0.0
-49.6
6.5
6.1
6.7
2.3
1.5
73
114
148
1.6
3.6
0.1
FY23
46.7
87.9
566.5
0.0
0.0
136.0
72.2
11.2
3.2
53.0
0.0
-98.8
8.6
8.2
9.1
2.7
2.0
58
93
121
1.4
2.5
0.3
FY24
39.4
94.8
612.7
0.0
0.0
160.9
66.9
10.4
3.3
45.0
0.0
168.3
6.7
7.8
8.5
2.1
1.8
46
85
118
1.2
1.8
0.3
FY25E
70.8
139.0
683.5
0.0
0.0
89.6
45.7
9.3
2.5
32.4
0.0
-41.2
10.9
10.8
11.6
2.6
2.2
58
90
121
1.3
2.2
0.4
FY26E
109.5
182.0
793.0
0.0
0.0
57.9
34.9
8.0
2.0
25.0
0.0
111.1
14.8
12.8
14.2
2.8
2.4
58
90
121
1.3
3.2
0.3
FY27E
168.7
248.1
961.8
0.0
0.0
37.6
25.6
6.6
1.6
18.7
0.0
168.7
19.2
15.9
18.6
3.2
2.7
58
90
121
1.3
4.4
0.1
(INR m)
FY27E
7,759
2,673
2,041
-1,986
-1,302
9,184
0
9,184
-3,500
5,684
0
-32
-3,532
0
0
-2,041
0
0
-2,041
3,612
6,905
-117
10,400
Consolidated - Cashflow
Y/E March
Statement
OP/(Loss) before Tax
Depreciation
Interest & Finance Charges
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in WC
CF from Operations
Others
CF from Operating incl EO
(Inc)/Dec in FA
Free Cash Flow
(Pur)/Sale of Investments
Others
CF from Investments
Issue of Shares
Inc/(Dec) in Debt
Interest Paid
Dividend Paid
Others
CF from Fin. Activity
Inc/Dec of Cash
Opening Balance
Other Bank Balances
Closing Balance
FY20
1,907
848
419
-488
44
2,731
151
2,882
-1,411
1,471
-1,672
-183
-3,266
0
1,209
-430
-121
-23
634
250
450
503
1,203
FY21
1,201
923
406
-79
-80
2,371
-162
2,210
-1,711
499
-1,568
-1,531
-4,810
3,936
161
-372
0
-24
3,700
1,099
700
1,100
2,899
FY22
1,543
1,079
464
-539
-62
2,485
-77
2,407
-4,077
-1,670
-1,542
-1,277
-6,896
0
6,031
-430
0
-46
5,555
1,066
1,920
2,640
5,626
FY23
2,197
1,391
1,118
-539
-582
3,585
-379
3,206
-6,535
-3,329
210
1,437
-4,888
0
3,120
-1,097
0
-96
1,928
246
2,986
2,363
5,594
FY24
1,913
1,865
1,670
-461
5,032
10,019
-371
9,648
-3,977
5,671
788
-7,156
-10,345
0
589
-1,567
0
-238
-1,216
-1,913
3,232
5,594
6,913
FY25E
3,305
2,296
2,075
-846
-4,218
2,611
0
2,611
-4,000
-1,389
0
-23
-4,023
0
2,000
-2,075
0
0
-75
-1,487
6,913
-97
5,329
FY26E
5,068
2,442
2,033
-1,297
-1,002
7,243
0
7,243
-3,500
3,743
0
-27
-3,527
0
0
-2,033
0
0
-2,033
1,683
5,329
-107
6,905
7 March 2025
10
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
EMS & Consumer Durable
Managing demand-supply dynamics
VOLT acknowledges the ongoing demand-supply mismatch but does not see it as a major
challenge, thanks to its strategic tie-ups, proactive procurement, and inventory
optimization. It is securing short-term sourcing agreements while working on long-term
manufacturing deals. Despite supply-chain constraints, sales improved in Dec’24 and
Jan’25, though at a slower pace than the previous year. VOLT remains the market leader in
the RAC segment, with a 20.5% market share as of Dec’24. The company has achieved
significant backward integration at Sri City but still relies on third-party suppliers for some
components like compressors and motors. We reiterate our BUY rating on the stock with
our SoTP-based TP of INR1,710.
Voltas (INR b)
Y/E MARCH
FY25E FY26E FY27E
Sales
148.3 164.2 184.4
EBITDA
10.9 13.0 15.6
Adj. PAT
8.3 10.0 12.6
EBITA Margin (%)
7.3 7.9 8.5
Cons. Adj. EPS (INR) 25.1 30.4 38.0
EPS Gr. (%)
247.1 20.9 25.1
BV/Sh. (INR)
198.9 223.0 253.4
Ratios
Net D:E
(0.1) (0.1) (0.2)
RoE (%)
12.6 13.6 15.0
RoCE (%)
13.6 14.3 15.0
Payout (%)
25.0 25.0 25.0
Valuations
P/E (x)
55.9 46.2 37.0
P/BV (x)
7.1 6.3 5.5
EV/EBITDA (x)
42.2 35.0 28.8
Div Yield (%)
0.4 0.5 0.7
FCF Yield (%)
0.8 1.9 2.2
VOLT’s growth strategy amid supply-chain challenges
VOLT has recognized that the demand-supply mismatch is an ongoing issue but
does not perceive it as a significant challenge currently. The company has
implemented various strategies, including strategic tie-ups for the supply of
critical components, proactive procurements, and inventory optimization. It is
engaging in short-term sourcing tie-ups (six months) to secure components
while working on long-term manufacturing agreements (24 months).
Despite supply-chain constraints, VOLT’s performance improved in Dec’24, with
a further uptick in sales in Jan’25. Primary sales have been increasing, though
not at the same pace as in the previous year, maintaining a steady growth
trajectory.
In 3QFY25, UCP segment margin has declined due to higher ad spends, costs
incurred toward in-shop demonstrations, sales promotion, and brand-building
activities. The company remains focused on increasing overall sales and its
market share. Further, it focuses on optimizing absolute profitability rather than
QoQ margin comparison.
VOLT remains a market leader in the RAC segment with a market share of 20.5%
as of Dec’24 end. VOLT’s RAC manufacturing capacity stood at 2.5m units (1.5m
at Pantnagar, Uttarakhand, and 1.0m in Sri City, Tamil Nadu). The company
plans to expand capacity at Sri City to 1.5m-2.0m units in the next 12-18 months
at an estimated capex of INR2.0b. In FY24, VOLT sold 2.0m RACs, up ~35% YoY,
with a market share of 18.7%.
By setting up the Sri City plant and new machinery installation in Pantnagar,
VOLT achieved a lot of backward integration. The plant has 100% captive
sourcing of sheet metal, injection modeling, copper tubes and heat-exchangers.
For a few components such as compressor controllers and motors, it relies on
third-party suppliers. However, compressor manufacturing will take more time,
as it is looking for some technological partnership.
Our discussions with dealers indicate that, due to supply-chain issues, OEMs
have not shown aggression in stocking up materials, so far. However, since
Dec’24, there has been a monthly price increase of ~1%, which in the past was
not seen until March. Historically, VOLT has been able to manage things well
given its strong brand positioning and aggressive volume-led growth.
VOLT’s EMPS business reported robust performance in 9MFY25 (reported EBIT
of INR1.7b vs. a loss of INR2.2b in 9MFY24), led by consolidation of international
businesses (operations in UAE and Saudi Arabia continued to perform well),
ensuring good KYC practices, and only executing profitable projects. The overall
11
VOLT is market leader in the RAC segment
Electro-mechanical projects and services (EMPS) business outlook
Sanjeev Kumar Singh
(Sanjeev.Singh@MotilalOswal.com)
Research analyst –
7 March 2025
Mudit Agarwal
(Mudit.Agarwal@MotilalOswal.com)
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
EMS & Consumer Durable
order book size (domestic and international) stood at INR68.2b as of Dec’24,
ensuring a strong pipeline.
Recently, the company has informed exchanges of an expected financial loss, if
any, of INR4.0b on account of an order passed by Qatar Court toward the
encashment of bank guarantees of VOLT for damages claimed by a party named
Joint Venture of OHL International, Spain, and Contrack (Cyprus). However, the
company is looking to challenge the order by filing an appeal in the Court of
Appeal. We believe this would be accounted for in 4QFY25 earnings.
The company has adopted a two-fold strategy for its international business - 1)
focusing on collecting outstanding payments from previous customers, as some
exposures were higher than expected; 2) business consolidation as the company
is concentrating on expanding its business in two key geographies, UAE and
Saudi Arabia, where it is executing a mix of large and small projects (around 10-
12 in total).
We expect a CAGR of 12%/20%/23% in VOLT’s revenue/EBITDA/adj. PAT over
FY25-27. While we estimate UCP segment margin to be in high-single digits,
higher volume growth could surprise positively. It focuses on absolute
profitability, sales growth and optimization of production facilities.
We reiterate our BUY rating on the stock with our SoTP-based TP of INR1,710,
with 50x FY27E EPS for the UCP segment, 25x FY27E EPS for the PES and EMPS
segments, and INR22/sh for Voltbek.
Key risks include dependence on the import of critical components like
compressors, government policies on imports, intensifying competition with
aggressive pricing and marketing spends, and demand fluctuations due to
seasonality impact.
Valuation and view
Key risks and concerns
7 March 2025
12
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
EMS & Consumer Durable
Financials and valuations (Consolidated) - Voltas
Income Statement
Y/E March
Total Revenues
Change (%)
EBITDA
% of Total Revenues
Other Income
Depreciation
Interest
Exceptional Items
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
PAT
Change (%)
Profit/(Loss) share of associates/JVs
Minority interest (MI)
PAT after MI
Change (%)
Adj. PAT after MI
Change (%)
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Minority Interest
Loans
Deferred Tax Liability
Capital Employed
Gross Fixed Assets
Less: Depreciation
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
Goodwill
Curr. Assets
Inventory
Debtors
Cash & Bank Balance
Loans & Advances
Other current assets
Current Liab. & Prov.
Creditors
Other Liabilities
Net Current Assets
Application of Funds
FY20
76,581
7.5
6,867
9.0
2,306
320
211
-364
8,278
2,380
28.8
5,898
4.3
-687
39
5,172
1.8
5,536
6.5
FY21
75,558
-1.3
6,414
8.5
1,889
339
262
0
7,702
1,804
23.4
5,898
0.0
-610
37
5,251
1.5
5,251
-5.1
FY22
79,345
5.0
6,816
8.6
1,892
373
259
0
8,076
1,913
23.7
6,163
4.5
-1,103
19
5,041
-4.0
5,041
-4.0
FY23
94,988
19.7
5,724
6.0
1,685
396
296
-2,438
4,278
1,709
40.0
2,569
-58.3
-1,207
12
1,350
-73.2
3,788
-24.8
FY24
1,24,812
31.4
4,746
3.8
2,533
476
559
0
6,244
2,377
38.1
3,867
50.6
-1,386
-39
2,520
86.7
2,394
-36.8
FY25E
1,48,254
18.8
10,895
7.3
3,132
660
550
0
12,817
3,294
25.7
9,523
146.2
-1,254
-39
8,308
229.7
8,308
247.1
FY26E
1,64,227
10.8
12,991
7.9
3,295
797
510
0
14,980
3,850
25.7
11,130
16.9
-1,121
-39
10,048
20.9
10,048
20.9
(INR m)
FY27E
1,84,377
12.3
15,585
8.5
3,472
922
470
0
17,665
4,540
25.7
13,125
17.9
-597
-39
12,568
25.1
12,568
25.1
FY20
331
42,471
42,802
365
2,179
-715
44,631
6,201
3,195
3,006
263
23,433
798
53,332
14,689
18,336
3,084
23
17,200
36,201
26,889
9,312
17,131
44,631
FY21
331
49,603
49,934
361
2,606
-558
52,343
6,690
3,534
3,157
88
30,464
723
51,565
12,796
18,009
4,588
23
16,149
33,654
24,645
9,009
17,911
52,343
FY22
331
54,665
54,996
381
3,432
-317
58,492
7,020
3,906
3,114
593
36,154
723
56,440
16,614
21,097
5,717
32
12,981
38,532
29,421
9,111
17,908
58,492
FY23
331
54,190
54,521
417
6,160
-303
60,794
8,826
4,302
4,524
983
31,086
723
65,119
15,920
21,919
7,084
6
20,191
41,640
30,126
11,514
23,479
60,794
FY24
331
57,874
58,205
337
7,133
176
65,851
9,533
4,778
4,754
3,675
35,083
723
75,709
21,354
25,328
8,523
13
20,491
54,093
38,557
15,536
21,616
65,851
FY25E
331
65,464
65,795
298
6,633
176
72,902
13,708
5,439
8,269
2,500
34,828
723
90,834
25,183
30,085
11,211
16
24,340
64,253
45,799
18,454
26,581
72,902
FY26E
331
73,435
73,765
259
6,133
176
80,334
16,708
6,235
10,473
1,500
34,707
723
1,04,106
27,896
33,326
15,905
18
26,962
71,175
50,733
20,442
32,931
80,334
FY27E
331
83,490
83,821
220
5,633
176
89,851
18,708
7,157
11,551
1,500
35,110
723
1,20,874
31,319
37,415
21,851
20
30,270
79,908
56,958
22,950
40,966
89,851
7 March 2025
13
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
EMS & Consumer Durable
Financials and valuations (Consolidated) - Voltas
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
Adj EPS
Cash EPS
Book Value
DPS
Payout (incl. Div. Tax.)
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Price/Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
Profitability Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
RoIC
Turnover Ratios
Debtors (Days)
Inventory (Days)
Creditors. (Days)
Asset Turnover (x)
Leverage Ratio
Net Debt/Equity (x)
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
PBT before EO Items
Add : Depreciation
Interest
Less : Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in WC
CF from Operations
Others
CF from Oper. Incl. EO Items
(Inc)/Dec in FA
Free Cash Flow
Investment in liquid assets
CF from Investments
(Inc)/Dec in Debt
Less : Interest Paid
Dividend Paid
CF from Fin. Activity
Inc/Dec of Cash
Add: Beginning Balance
Closing Balance
FY20
16.7
17.7
129.4
4.0
23.9
83.9
79.4
67.5
6.1
10.9
0.3
12.9
14.1
25.8
87
70
128
1.7
(0.0)
FY21
15.9
16.9
150.9
5.0
31.5
88.5
83.1
72.1
6.1
9.3
0.4
10.5
11.6
26.9
87
62
119
1.4
(0.0)
FY22
15.2
16.4
166.3
5.5
36.1
92.2
85.8
67.8
5.8
8.4
0.4
9.2
10.9
29.6
97
76
135
1.4
(0.0)
FY23
11.5
12.6
164.8
4.3
37.1
122.7
111.0
81.0
4.9
8.5
0.3
6.9
6.9
14.1
84
61
116
1.6
(0.0)
FY24
7.2
8.7
176.0
2.2
30.0
194.1
161.9
97.6
3.7
8.0
0.2
4.1
6.4
11.9
74
62
113
1.9
(0.0)
FY25E
25.1
27.1
198.9
6.3
25.0
55.9
51.8
42.2
3.1
7.1
0.4
12.6
13.6
28.3
74
62
113
2.0
(0.1)
FY26E
30.4
32.8
223.0
7.6
25.0
46.2
42.8
35.0
2.8
6.3
0.5
13.6
14.3
30.5
74
62
113
2.0
(0.1)
FY27E
38.0
40.8
253.4
9.5
25.0
37.0
34.4
28.8
2.4
5.5
0.7
15.0
15.0
33.1
74
62
113
2.1
(0.2)
FY20
7,591
320
211
(2,061)
(911)
5,150
(525)
4,625
(905)
3,720
(352)
(1,257)
(1,057)
(811)
(1,627)
(3,494)
(127)
3,211
3,084
FY21
7,735
339
262
(693)
(1,580)
6,063
(502)
5,561
(208)
5,353
(2,645)
(2,853)
425
(271)
(1,358)
(1,204)
1,504
3,084
4,588
FY22
5,610
3,726
259
(2,169)
(438)
6,988
(1,145)
5,842
(482)
5,361
(3,165)
(3,646)
918
(312)
(1,676)
(1,070)
1,126
4,591
5,717
FY23
7,787
396
296
(1,656)
(3,836)
2,987
(1,393)
1,594
(1,799)
(206)
983
(816)
2,728
(349)
(1,829)
550
1,328
5,756
7,084
FY24
10,207
476
559
(2,115)
801
9,928
(2,312)
7,615
(2,931)
4,685
(2,293)
(5,224)
974
(493)
(1,432)
(952)
1,439
7,084
8,523
FY25E
12,817
660
550
(3,294)
(2,278)
8,456
(1,510)
6,946
(3,000)
3,946
510
(2,490)
(500)
(550)
(718)
(1,768)
2,688
8,523
11,211
FY26E
14,980
797
510
(3,850)
(1,656)
10,781
-
10,781
(2,000)
8,781
(1,000)
(3,000)
(500)
(510)
(2,077)
(3,087)
4,694
11,211
15,905
FY27E
17,665
922
470
(4,540)
(2,089)
12,428
-
12,428
(2,000)
10,428
(1,000)
(3,000)
(500)
(470)
(2,512)
(3,482)
5,946
15,905
21,851
7 March 2025
14
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
EMS & Consumer Durable
Market leader in FMEG segment
HAVL has the largest total addressable market (TAM) of over INR2.2t among listed
consumer durable companies, driven by its diverse portfolio across electricals, lighting,
home appliances, and industrial solutions. The acquisition of Lloyd in 2017 expanded its
presence in large home appliances, particularly air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing
machines. Lloyd has emerged as one of the top-three players in the RAC segment, with a
manufacturing capacity of 2.0m units across Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu. HAVL continues to
invest in Lloyd’s growth through manufacturing, R&D, marketing, and brand building,
positioning it as a strong domestic player. The upcoming summer season is expected to
drive strong demand for Lloyd, supported by an expanded product portfolio, enhanced
distribution, and increased advertising efforts. However, the brand faces challenges in the
non-AC segment due to stiff competition and brand perception issues. The stock trades
fairly and we maintain our Neutral rating with a TP of INR1,650 (premised on 50x FY27E
EPS).
Havells India (INR b)
Y/E MARCH
FY25E FY26E FY27E
Sales
211.9 240.5 276.7
EBITDA
19.9 24.3 29.3
Adj. PAT
13.8 16.9 20.7
EBITA Margin (%)
9.4 10.1 10.6
Cons. Adj. EPS (INR) 22.0 26.9 33.1
EPS Gr. (%)
8.7 22.1 23.0
BV/Sh. (INR)
133.1 150.6 172.1
Ratios
Net D:E
(0.4) (0.4) (0.5)
RoE (%)
16.5 17.9 19.2
RoCE (%)
16.2 17.5 18.9
Payout (%)
35.0 35.0 35.0
Valuations
P/E (x)
66.3 54.3 44.1
P/BV (x)
11.0 9.7 8.5
EV/EBITDA (x)
44.2 36.0 29.5
Div Yield (%)
0.5 0.6 0.8
FCF Yield (%)
0.5 1.1 1.5
A full-stack consumer durable company
HAVL boasts the highest TAM of INR2.2t+ among all listed companies in the
consumer durable space. This extensive market opportunity stems from the
company’s wide-ranging product portfolio, which spans electrical consumer
goods, lighting, home appliances, and industrial solutions. Over the years, HAVL
has significantly expanded its TAM by continuously diversifying its offerings and
strategically entering into high-growth segments.
A key milestone in this expansion was the acquisition of Lloyd in CY17, which
allowed HAVL to establish a strong foothold in the large home appliances
market, including air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines. This
move positioned the company in a higher-value segment with strong demand
potential, complementing its leadership in electrical products and small
appliances. Additionally, HAVL’s presence across multiple consumer and
industrial categories, such as cables and wires, switches and switchgear, fans,
and personal grooming products, has further broadened its market scope.
The company’s proactive approach to market expansion, innovation, and brand
building has enabled it to tap into new customer segments and geographies,
thereby steadily increasing its TAM over time. Its investments in product
differentiation, in-house manufacturing, and omnichannel distribution continue
to strengthen its competitive edge, making it one of the most comprehensive
players in India’s consumer durable industry.
Lloyd, particularly in the AC segment, is well-positioned to benefit from strong
seasonal demand. The company’s RAC manufacturing capacity stood at 2.0m
units (1.0m each at Ghiloth and Sri City). Lloyd is now among the top three
players in the RAC segment.
The company is making consistent investments in Lloyd toward manufacturing,
R&D, marketing, and brand building, positioning itself as a strong domestic
player in the large home appliances business.
We expect Lloyd to benefit from a strong summer season, led by – 1) an
expanded product portfolio as it has launched new models with energy-
efficiency technology and smart features; 2) strengthened distribution network
with enhanced presence in multi-brand stores, exclusive brand outlets, e-
commerce platforms and emerging sales channels such as quick commerce and
modern format retail; 3) increased investment in advertising, marketing and
Lloyd gaining traction in AC business
Sanjeev Kumar Singh
(Sanjeev.Singh@MotilalOswal.com)
Research analyst –
Mudit Agarwal
(Mudit.Agarwal@MotilalOswal.com)
7 March 2025
15
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
EMS & Consumer Durable
sales promotions to boost brand recall and higher sales during peak season; and
4) in-house manufacturing capabilities.
Our channel checks suggested that Lloyd has not been aggressive in stock filling,
so far. Further, it is expected to benefit from the compressor shortage, if any,
faced by any other leading players. It is facing challenges in the non-AC category
due to intense competition and brand perception challenges.
Valuation and View
We expect HAVL to report ~14% revenue CAGR over FY25-27E. Revenue CAGR
across segments is estimated as follows: Lloyd (20%), ECDs (15%), Cables and
Wires (14%), Switchgears (9%), and Lighting and Fixtures (6%).
We estimate Lloyd margin to improve going forward, led by an increase in
contribution margin in the RAC segment, positive operating leverage, and an
increase in in-house capabilities for the non-AC segment (it is setting up new
refrigerator manufacturing facility in Ghiloth at a capex of INR4.8b).
We expect HAVL to report an EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 21%/23% over FY25-27. We
estimate OPM to reach 10.6% in FY27 vs. 9.4% in FY25E. RoIC is expected to
improve to 29% by FY27 from 22% in FY25E, and RoE is likely to be 19% in FY27
vs. 17% in FY25.
The stock is trading fairly at 54x/44x FY26/27E EPS, and hence, we reiterate our
Neutral rating with a TP of INR1,650 (premised on 50x FY27E EPS).
Key risks and concerns
Increase in commodity (copper and aluminum) prices, which can adversely
impact margin; slowdown in housing and infrastructure activities can lead to
lower demand for cables and wires; intense competition in large housing
appliances segment, and demand fluctuations due to seasonality impact.
7 March 2025
16
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
EMS & Consumer Durable
Financials and valuations (Consolidated) – Havells India
Income Statement
Y/E March
Net Sales
Change (%)
Raw Materials
Gross margin (%)
Staff Cost
Other Expenses
EBITDA
% of Net Sales
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
Extra-ordinary Inc.(net)
Reported PAT
Change (%)
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Loans
Deferred Tax Liability
Capital Employed
Gross Fixed Assets
Less: Depreciation
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
Curr. Assets
Inventory
Debtors
Cash & Bank Balance
Other Current Assets
Current Liab. & Prov.
Creditors
Other Liabilities
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Application of Funds
FY20
94,292
-6.3
58,351
38.1
8,996
16,671
10,274
10.9
2,179
197
1,120
9,017
1,687
18.7
0
7,330
-6.9
7,330
-6.9
FY21
1,04,279
10.6
64,749
37.9
8,853
15,024
15,653
15.0
2,489
726
1,450
13,888
3,590
25.8
98
10,396
41.8
10,298
40.5
FY22
1,38,885
33.2
93,840
32.4
10,147
17,322
17,576
12.7
2,608
534
1,604
16,038
4,091
25.5
0
11,948
14.9
11,948
16.0
FY23
1,69,107
21.8
1,17,055
30.8
12,816
23,245
15,991
9.5
2,962
336
1,777
14,471
3,753
25.9
0
10,717
-10.3
10,717
-10.3
FY24
1,85,900
9.9
1,25,687
32.4
15,485
26,302
18,426
9.9
3,385
457
2,490
17,074
4,366
25.6
0
12,708
18.6
12,708
18.6
FY25E
2,11,907
14.0
1,42,190
32.9
18,830
30,938
19,949
9.4
3,961
420
3,069
18,636
4,827
25.9
0
13,810
8.7
13,810
8.7
FY26E
2,40,474
13.5
1,59,915
33.5
22,596
33,666
24,297
10.1
4,441
440
3,336
22,752
5,893
25.9
0
16,859
22.1
16,859
22.1
(INR m)
FY27E
2,76,664
15.0
1,82,599
34.0
27,115
37,626
29,325
10.6
4,889
460
4,001
27,976
7,246
25.9
0
20,731
23.0
20,731
23.0
(INR m)
FY27E
627
1,07,250
1,07,877
0
3,575
1,11,452
79,896
31,309
48,587
2,987
200
1,24,618
51,543
15,918
49,577
7,580
64,939
40,062
21,224
3,654
59,678
1,11,452
FY20
626
42,422
43,048
405
2,865
46,318
40,479
6,985
33,494
861
16
36,107
18,719
2,489
11,069
3,830
24,160
14,141
7,564
2,456
11,947
46,318
FY21
626
51,019
51,645
4,922
3,391
59,958
41,965
9,062
32,903
899
3,079
51,321
26,199
5,636
16,247
3,238
28,245
15,968
9,117
3,160
23,076
59,958
FY22
626
59,260
59,886
3,955
3,506
67,348
46,005
11,670
34,335
572
4,261
65,884
29,681
7,675
25,358
3,169
37,704
23,794
10,615
3,295
28,180
67,348
FY23
627
65,628
66,255
0
3,615
69,870
50,838
14,632
36,207
1,664
2,009
71,695
37,086
9,755
18,702
6,152
41,705
26,432
11,157
4,116
29,990
69,870
FY24
627
73,841
74,468
0
3,575
78,043
57,896
18,017
39,879
2,987
200
81,261
34,086
11,652
30,382
5,141
46,284
26,919
15,711
3,654
34,977
78,043
FY25E
627
82,817
83,444
0
3,575
87,019
65,896
21,978
43,918
2,987
200
90,509
39,479
12,192
33,033
5,806
50,595
30,685
16,256
3,654
39,914
87,019
FY26E
627
93,775
94,402
0
3,575
97,977
72,896
26,419
46,476
2,987
200
1,05,237
44,801
13,835
40,012
6,588
56,923
34,822
18,447
3,654
48,314
97,977
7 March 2025
17
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
EMS & Consumer Durable
Financials and valuations (Consolidated) – Havells India
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
Adjusted EPS
Growth (%)
Cash EPS
Book Value
DPS
Payout (incl. Div. Tax.)
Valuation (x)
P/Sales
P/E (standalone)
Cash P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Price/Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
Profitability Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
RoIC
Turnover Ratios
Debtors (Days)
Inventory (Days)
Creditors. (Days)
Asset Turnover (x)
Leverage Ratio
Net Debt/Equity (x)
Cash Flow Statement (INR m)
Y/E March
PBT before EO Items
Add : Depreciation
Interest
Less : Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in WC
CF from Operations
(Inc)/Dec in FA
Free Cash Flow
(Pur)/Sale of Investments
CF from Investments
(Inc)/Dec in Net Worth / Others
(Inc)/Dec in Debt
Less : Interest Paid
Dividend Paid
CF from Fin. Activity
Inc/Dec of Cash
Add: Beginning Balance
Closing Balance
FY20
9,216
2,179
(535)
2,398
215
8,248
(3,592)
4,655
625
(2,968)
313
(937)
52
6,413
(7,088)
(1,808)
12,877
11,069
FY21
14,104
2,489
(315)
2,714
6,985
6,579
(1,227)
5,353
(2,169)
(3,396)
195
4,136
459
1,878
1,994
5,178
11,069
16,247
FY22
16,272
2,608
(717)
4,138
(3,420)
17,446
(2,490)
14,956
(5,102)
(7,592)
(183)
(973)
245
4,073
(5,473)
4,380
20,978
25,358
FY23
14,610
2,962
(898)
3,919
7,105
5,649
(5,855)
(206)
6,206
350
(360)
(3,937)
70
4,703
(9,069)
(3,070)
21,771
18,702
FY24
17,185
3,385
(1,393)
3,919
(4,272)
19,529
(7,278)
12,251
(8,861)
(16,139)
(558)
-
76
4,701
(5,336)
(1,945)
32,327
30,382
FY25E
18,636
3,961
(2,649)
4,827
2,286
12,836
(8,000)
4,836
3,069
(4,931)
-
-
420
4,833
(5,253)
2,651
30,382
33,033
FY26E
22,752
4,441
(2,896)
5,893
1,420
16,984
(7,000)
9,984
3,336
(3,664)
-
-
440
5,901
(6,341)
6,979
33,033
40,012
FY27E
27,976
4,889
(3,541)
7,246
1,799
20,279
(7,000)
13,279
4,001
(2,999)
-
-
460
7,256
(7,716)
9,565
40,012
49,577
FY20
11.7
-6.9
15.2
68.8
8.5
87.5
9.7
124.7
96.1
87.9
9.6
21.2
0.6
17.0
16.2
18.7
10
72
55
2.0
-0.2
FY21
16.5
40.4
20.4
82.5
2.5
18.2
8.8
88.8
71.5
57.7
8.7
17.7
0.2
19.9
18.1
24.0
20
92
56
1.7
-0.2
FY22
19.1
16.0
23.2
95.6
6.5
34.1
6.6
76.6
62.8
50.8
6.4
15.3
0.4
20.0
18.3
29.6
20
78
63
2.1
-0.4
FY23
17.1
-10.3
21.8
105.8
7.5
43.9
5.4
85.4
66.9
56.0
5.3
13.8
0.5
16.2
15.7
19.6
21
80
57
2.4
-0.3
FY24
20.3
18.5
25.7
118.8
9.0
37.0
4.9
72.0
56.9
48.0
4.8
12.3
0.6
17.1
16.7
23.6
23
67
53
2.4
-0.4
FY25E
22.0
8.7
28.4
133.1
7.7
35.0
4.3
66.3
51.5
44.2
4.2
11.0
0.5
16.5
16.2
22.0
21
68
53
2.4
-0.4
FY26E
26.9
22.1
34.0
150.6
9.4
35.0
3.8
54.3
43.0
36.0
3.6
9.7
0.6
17.9
17.5
25.5
21
68
53
2.5
-0.4
FY27E
33.1
23.0
40.9
172.1
11.6
35.0
3.3
44.1
35.7
29.5
3.1
8.5
0.8
19.2
18.9
29.4
21
68
53
2.5
-0.5
Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing
7 March 2025
18
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
EMS & Consumer Durable
Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating
BUY
SELL
NEUTRAL
UNDER REVIEW
NOT RATED
Expected return (over 12-month)
>=15%
< - 10%
< - 10 % to 15%
Rating may undergo a change
We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall be within following
30 days take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.
Disclosures
The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations).
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000412. MOFSL, the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the Regulations,
is engaged in the business of providing Stock broking services, Depository participant services & distribution of various financial products. MOFSL is a listed public company, the details in respect
of which are available on
www.motilaloswal.com.
MOFSL (erstwhile Motilal Oswal Securities Limited - MOSL) is registered with the Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and is a registered
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Specific Disclosures
1. Research Analyst and/or his/her relatives do not have a financial interest in the subject company(ies), as they do not have equity holdings in the subject company(ies).
MOFSL has financial interest in the subject company(ies) at the end of the week immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report: Yes.
Nature of Financial interest is holding equity shares or derivatives of the subject company
2. Research Analyst and/or his/her relatives do not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company(ies) at the end of the month immediately
preceding the date of publication of Research Report.
MOFSL has actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company(ies) at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research
Report:No
3. Research Analyst and/or his/her relatives have not received compensation/other benefits from the subject company(ies) in the past 12 months.
MOFSL may have received compensation from the subject company(ies) in the past 12 months.
4. Research Analyst and/or his/her relatives do not have material conflict of interest in the subject company at the time of publication of research report.
MOFSL does not have material conflict of interest in the subject company at the time of publication of research report.
5. Research Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of subject company(ies).
6. MOFSL has not acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months.
7. MOFSL has not received compensation for investment banking /merchant banking/brokerage services from the subject company(ies) in the past 12 months.
8. MOFSL may have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company(ies)
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in the past 12 months.
9. MOFSL may have received compensation or other benefits from the subject company(ies) or third party in connection with the research report.
10. MOFSL has not engaged in market making activity for the subject company.
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The associates of MOFSL may have:
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financial interest in the subject company
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actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report or date of the
public appearance.
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received compensation/other benefits from the subject company in the past 12 months
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any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the
specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOFSL even though
there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report.
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acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months
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be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies)
discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies)
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received compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months for investment banking / merchant banking / brokerage services or from other than said services.
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Served subject company as its clients during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report.
The associates of MOFSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report
Above disclosures include beneficial holdings lying in demat account of MOFSL which are opened for proprietary investments only. While calculating beneficial holdings, It does not consider
demat accounts which are opened in name of MOFSL for other purposes (i.e holding client securities, collaterals, error trades etc.). MOFSL also earns DP income from clients which are not
considered in above disclosures.
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s)
was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report.
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not all customers may receive this report at the same time. MOFSL will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report.
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The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in
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completeness or fairness of the information and opinions contained in this document. The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the
transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to
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to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform or seek to perform investment
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