Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Sector Update | Technology

Sector Update | 14 May 2025

Internet: Eternal Vs. Swiggy

Strategies diverge as growth converges in 4Q

Near-term profitability to be tested though amid increased rivalry

In this note, we compare the relative performance of Swiggy and Eternal in the recently

reported 4Q results. While numbers largely followed a similar trend, we saw divergent

commentaries and strategic shifts for both players this time. A common thread was a

noticeable slowdown in food delivery (down 1.2% QoQ for Swiggy and down 1.4% for

Eternal). However, Swiggy doubled down on its 10-minute food delivery offering, Swiggy

Bolt, whereas Eternal exited the space completely. This has opened up room for

differentiation in an otherwise stable duopoly. On quick commerce (QC), profitability

remained under the pump, though commentaries here too were different: Blinkit cited

heightened competitive intensity and guided for elevated investments, whereas Swiggy

indicated that peak cash burn was behind and contribution margins should improve

sequentially. We note that Blinkit currently tops Instamart on key throughput

parameters (GOV per dark store, orders/day/dark store): possibly because Instamart’s

recently opened dark stores are yet to ramp up to full capacity.

We believe discussions around market share are premature, as there is still a

significant runway to expand the gross order value (GOV) over the next years as QC

penetrates mom-and-pop retail in India. We retain a BUY rating on Eternal, given its

stable food delivery operations and Blinkit’s long-term growth potential. Despite near-

term profitability challenges, we expect operational leverage to improve as Blinkit

scales. For Swiggy, we are monitoring key metrics like average order value (AOV)

growth and dark store throughput. If these metrics improve, Swiggy could see a

material jump in profitability, prompting us to reassess our stance on Swiggy.

Food delivery: Room opening up for differentiation, but slowdown visible



While growth is slowing down for both Eternal and Swiggy, over the past 3-4

quarters Swiggy has marginally had the upper hand here.

Eternal’s withdrawal from 10-minute food delivery opens up room for Swiggy to

differentiate in this space: Swiggy has pursued a clear strategy of scaling up its

10-minute delivery through Bolt, which makes up 12% of the total food delivery

orders now and is now ramped up to 500 cities.

After gaining steady market share through FY24 (Exhibit 4), Eternal’s

momentum appears to have plateaued—its market share slipped marginally

from 57.6% in 1QFY25 to 57.1% in 4QFY25, while Swiggy stabilized and slightly

gained share from 42.4% to 42.9% over the same period.

(Note: we assume this

is a duopoly and calculate market share accordingly.)

That said, the slowdown in food delivery is hitting both; even if we assume a

strong sequential pick-up over the next couple of quarters, the YoY growth is

expected to track below the companies' guidance

(20% by Eternal and 18-22%

by Swiggy). While both companies have so far maintained their guidance, it

could be a while before we start hitting 20% growth rates.

Abhishek Pathak - Research analyst

(Abhishek.Pathak@MotilalOswal.com)

Research analyst: Keval Bhagat

(Keval.Bhagat@MotilalOswal.com) |

Tushar Dhonde

(Tushar.Dhonde@MotilalOswal.com)

Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.

Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Sector Update | Technology

Divergent commentaries on QC investments



Instamart's adjusted EBITDA as a % of GOV came in at -18% -- that's an adjusted

EBITDA loss of INR8,406m -- a contrast to Blinkit’s relatively measured burn of -

2.4%.

That said, Instamart indicated that 4Q was the peak of cash burn for the

business, and Contribution Margin should sequentially improve from here.

Blinkit, on the other hand, alluded to a more intense investment phase in light

of high competitive intensity.

Blinkit currently remains better at operating efficiency. As of 4QFY25, Instamart

operated a network of 1,021 active dark stores, whereas Blinkit had 1,301 active

dark stores. At the same time, Blinkit has ~102% higher GOV (INR94,210m) than

Instamart in 4QFY25.

Blinkit has a higher take rate of 18.4% in FY25 compared with Instamart’s 14.5%

Instamart’s AOV is also significantly lower than Blinkit’s. The divergence in AOV

and take rate is driving the margin difference, in our view.

Instamart's GOV per dark store is 37% lower than Blinkit’s, whereas

orders/day/dark store for Instamart are ~20% lower too.

Thus, it makes sense for Swiggy to guide for a lower cash burn, assuming these

metrics meaningfully improve and flow through in profits. However, in the

context of competition, Swiggy can ill afford to slow down on expansion, in our

view.

Too early to think about QC TAM and market share, pie keeps expanding



As shown in Exhibit 15, we estimate the current QC gross merchandise value

(GMV) to be USD8.2b (1.4% of total retail market in India, assuming Blinkit holds

38-40% market share).

We expect QC to be a ~USD30b market by 2028 (FY27E): In a scenario where the

pie is expanding, it is too early to think about market share.

We do not see this as a "winner takes most" market right now, and believe

retail and grocery are big enough for more than five players to co-exist.

The immediate impact of heightened competition then is on costs -- getting

the best talent, the best real estate, and the most optimized dark store

network will cost more than earlier thought.

In this context, disciplined execution and keeping costs in check are key areas,

where Blinkit shines.

Valuations and View



We retain BUY on ETERNAL due to its stable food delivery business, while Blinkit

presents a unique, long-term opportunity to participate in the disruption of

large addressable markets across retail, grocery, and e-commerce. While the

near-term margin trajectory is likely to remain volatile due to the accelerated

scale-up of Blinkit’s dark store network and heightened competitive intensity,

we expect operating leverage to kick in as store productivity improves. Eternal

should report PAT margin of 2.8%/5.2% in FY26E/FY27E.

On Swiggy, we closely monitor AOV growth, take rates, and dark store

throughput, and a meaningful improvement here could drive a sea change in

profitability, and we would turn more constructive in this scenario.

14 May 2025

Sector Update | Technology

Food Delivery Business: Story in charts

Exhibit 1: Slowdown in food delivery business has impacted

both players

Eternal FD GOV Growth( QoQ, %)

Swiggy FD GOV Growth ( QoQ, %)

-1%

2Q24

3Q24

-1%

4Q24

1Q25

2Q25

3Q25

10%

-1%

4Q25

1Q25

2Q25

3Q25

4Q25

17%

14%

15%

27%

21%

19%

18%

Exhibit 2: But Swiggy’s Bolt initiative has put it ahead on YoY

basis (company remaining in lower end of guidance)

Eternal FD GOV Growth( YoY, %)

Swiggy FD GOV Growth ( QoQ, %)

16%

Exhibit 3: Eternal’s aggressive share capturing in food delivery business has paused

Eternal

Swiggy

44.9%

44.0%

42.4%

42.5%

42.4%

42.6%

42.9%

55.1%

56.0%

57.6%

57.5%

57.6%

57.4%

57.1%

1Q24

2Q24

3Q24

4Q24

1Q25

2Q25

3Q25

4Q25

Exhibit 4: Food delivery business of both is now at…

Eternal CM

Swiggy CM

8.5%

7.3%

7.6%

7.4% 7.8%

6.7%

5.7%

5.1%

1Q24

2Q24

3Q24

4Q24 1Q25

2Q25

3Q25

4Q25

5.9%

6.4%

6.6%

8.6%

Exhibit 5: …steady state of profitability

Eternal Adj EBITDA

3.0%

3.3%

Swiggy Adj EBITDA

4.3% 4.4%

3.4% 3.5%

7.1%

6.4%

6.6%

7.5%

2.5%

2.6%

2.5% 2.9%

1.6%

0.3%

-0.7% -0.8%

1Q24

2Q24

3Q24

4Q24 1Q25

2Q25

3Q25

4Q25

0.5%

0.8%

Exhibit 6: Average monthly transacting users have been stable for both for past couple of quarters

Eternal MTU Growth (QoQ ,%)

8.8%

5.1%

2.2%

2.7%

-3.1%

3Q24

3.2%

1.1%

6.8%

2.0%

-1.0%

2Q24

4Q24

1Q25

2Q25

3Q25

1.3%

4Q25

Source: MOFSL, Company

4.8%

1.4%

2.0%

Swiggy MTU Growth (QoQ, %)

14 May 2025

Sector Update | Technology

Quick Commerce Business: Story in charts

Exhibit 7: Blinkit has clocked above-teens GOV growth,

ahead of Instamart

Blinkit GOV Growth ( QoQ ,%)

Instamart GOV Growth ( QoQ, %)

29%

28%

22%

14%

17%

11%

2Q24

12%

3Q24

4Q24

1Q25

2Q25

3Q25

4Q25

1Q24

2Q24

3Q24

4Q24

1Q25

2Q25

3Q25

4Q25

25%

24%

20%

16%

27%

21%

269

223

165

174

171

Exhibit 8: GOV/dark store for Instamart remains ~37% lower

than Blinkit

Blinkit GOV/Darkstore ( INRm)

Instamart GOV/Darkstore ( INRm)

314

306

178

308

196

310

222

310

222

290

183

Exhibit 9: Blinkit has substantially accelerated MTUs, while Instamart has lagged, albeit both started at same scale

Blinkit MTU

Instamart MTU

Blinkit MTU Growth ( QoQ ,%)

Instamart MTU Growth ( QoQ, %)

40%

29%

21%

15%

19%

17%

18%

1Q24

2Q24

3Q24

4Q24

11%

1Q25

2Q25

13%

3Q25

4Q25

19%

Exhibit 10: Blinkit has achieved profitability on CM basis,

while Instamart still struggles due to underutilization

Blinkit CM

Instamart CM

Exhibit 11: In terms of EBITDA level margins as well, Blinkit’s

breakeven seems in sight, while Instamart is behind

Blinkit Adj EBITDA (%)

Instamart Adj EBITDA (%)

-0.1%

-11.7%

-0.1%

-10.6%

-14.8%

-18.0%

3.9%

1.3%

-0.6%

-6.0%

-6.5%

-6.8%

4.0%

-3.2%

3.8%

-1.9%

2.4%

-3.8%

3.0%

-4.6%

3.1%

-6.2%

-5.6%

-2.5%

-4.5%

-0.9%

-1.3%

-1.9%

-13.2%

-16.5%

-17.9% -18.1%

1Q24

2Q24

3Q24

4Q24

1Q25

2Q25

3Q25

4Q25

1Q24

2Q24

3Q24

4Q24

1Q25

2Q25

3Q25

4Q25

Exhibit 12: Blinkit remains ahead of Instamart in dark store additions

Blinkit Darkstore

Instamart Darkstore

Blinkit Darkstore Addition (QoQ)

Instamart Darkstore addition ( QoQ)

316

216

294

1Q24

2Q24

3Q24

4Q24

113

152

1Q25

2Q25

3Q25

4Q25

Source: MOFSL, Company

14 May 2025

Sector Update | Technology

Exhibit 13: Blinkit is also ahead in volume per dark store, clocking 25% more orders than Instamart

Blinkit Orders/ Darkstore/Day

Instamart Orders/Darkstore/Day

1Q24

2Q24

3Q24

4Q24

1Q25

2Q25

3Q25

4Q25

Source: MOFSL, Company

Exhibit 14: Instamart’s fixed cost/order increased further due to underutilization of newly opened dark stores

Blinkit Fixed cost /order

Instamart Fixed cost /order

1Q24

2Q24

3Q24

4Q24

1Q25

2Q25

3Q25

4Q25

Source: MOFSL, Company

Exhibit 15: Base case scenario - 2028

Particulars

Current

market

size – USD

597

Gr.

CAGR

(%)

8.0

2028

Share of

Organized

market unorganiz

E-

B&M

size (USD ed Retail

commerce

(%)

877

91.5

4.2

1.3

(%)

QC GMV- QC GMV -

Comments

2024

2028



Food and Grocery

Apparel &

Apparel

Accessories

Non-Apparel

Accessories

Watches

Jewelry

Consumer

Electronics

Home & Living

Pharmacy &

Wellness

Footwear

Others - General

merchandise

Total GMV

3.0

8.2

26.3



8.0

55.5

22.0

0.5

1% share taken from

unorganized; 1% from

modern trade

Organized B&M & e-

commerce to continue

to increase- QC to play

minimal role

Same as above

No role to play for Q

commerce

No role to play for Q

commerce

Smartphones and

other personal/kitchen

appliances to move

online

8.0

55.5

28.0

58.0

22.0

48.0

33.0

22.0

24.0

9.0

0.5

0.0



8.0

N.A

68.1

78.0

58.0

80.0

55.0

10.9

13.0

19.0

8.0

44.0

20.0

8.0

23.0

11.0

1.0

0.0

1.0

8.2

0.9

0.5

0.4

0.7

Source: MOFSL

Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing

14 May 2025

Sector Update | Technology

NOTES

14 May 2025

Sector Update | Technology

Explanation of Investment Rating

Investment Rating

BUY

SELL

NEUTRAL

UNDER REVIEW

NOT RATED

Expected return (over 12-month)

>=15%

< - 10%

< - 10 % to 15%

Rating may undergo a change

We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation

*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall be within following

30 days take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.

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14 May 2025

Sector Update | Technology

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Registration details of group entities.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL): INZ000158836 (BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst:

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14 May 2025