MOSt
Advisor
Monthly Markets Newsletter
December 2017
In This Issue
Market Outlook for the month
Investment Ideas
• Equity Market Outlook
• Derivatives & Commodities Market Outlook
• Model Advisory Portfolios
• Recommended Funds
• New AIF offerings
Key Highlights
Q2 GDP growth accelerates to 6.3%
India's sovereign credit rating upgraded to Baa2 by Moody's
Nifty 2QFY18 PAT growth of 13.4% highest in seven quarters
Dear Investor,
Market in November 2017:
Nifty touched new peak in
November but later took a breather to close at 10,227 (down
1.1% MoM). Nifty Midcap 50 gained 1.7%, led by robust
institutional flows. FIIs bought stocks worth USD3bn, second
consecutive month of inflows. DIIs bought stocks worth
USD1.4bn in November.
On the macro front, India's Real GDP growth picked up to 6.3% in 2QFY18, up from
its three-year low of 5.7% in 1QFY18. India's fiscal deficit for April-October 2017
period reached 96% of FY18 target mainly due to lower revenue collections and rise
in expenditure. The government continued with its review and recalibration of GST,
with the council reducing tax on 178 items under the highest 28% slab to 18%.
Moody's upgraded India's sovereign credit rating to Baa2 from Baa3 and changed
the outlook from positive to stable after nearly 14 years. Moody's cited continued
progress in the nation's economic and institutional reforms such as GST, Demoneti-
Pre. Mth
Global Market
Index
30-Nov 17
MoM (%)
YoY(%)
Sensex
Nifty
FTSE 100
Dow
Nasdaq
Hang Sang
33,149
10,227
7,327
24,272
6,874
29,177
-0.2
-1.0
-2.2
3.8
2.2
3.3
24.4
24.3
8.0
26.9
29.1
28.0
Economic Pulse
Key Indicators Current Mth
zation, Direct Benefit Transfer, Monetary Policy which are expected to drive gradual
improvement in India's fiscal metrics. It expects India's GDP to grow at 6.7% in FY18
and 7.5% in FY19.
The 2QFY18 earnings season exhibited improving trend. Re-stocking post GST rollout,
retention of input tax credits and the early onset of the festive season supported few
B2C sectors, while many corporates sounded optimistic about rural consumption
revival, going ahead. Nifty earnings growth of 13.4% was the highest in last seven
quarters and was mainly driven by Cyclicals.
In Sensex reconstitution, Yes Bank and Indusind Bank will be included while Cipla
and Lupin will be excluded w.e.f. 18th December 2017.
Outlook December 2017:
Nifty has been consolidating in the 10,000-10,500 band.
The 2QFY18 earnings season has formed the base for revival in 2HFY18 and FY19
- which we believe would keep the overall market sentiment positive. Meanwhile,
crude has rallied towards the USD60-65 band and can act as a source of worry if
prices were to rally further. Outcome of the Gujarat state elections would be a key
monitorable.
Siddhartha Khemka
Vice President- Head - Retail Research
IIP
CPI
10 Year Yield
USD/ INR
Crude ($)
Gold (10 gms)
3.8%
3.58%
7.06%
64.46
63.57
29236
4.3%
3.28%
6.86%
64.74
61.37
29333
Thought for the month
1
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
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Monthly Markets Newsletter
Large Cap Investment Ideas,
Mid Cap Investment Ideas
Must Act
December 2017
Investment Ideas
Bajaj Auto is back on the growth path and we expect total volume CAGR of 10% over
Bajaj Auto
CMP*:
Target:
INR 3306
INR 4197
FY17-20, driven by 15% CAGR in exports, 13% CAGR in domestic 3Ws, and 7% CAGR
in domestic motorcycles.
EBITDA margin is likely to expand by ~60bp to 20.9% in FY20. Net profit is estimated
to grow at 16% CAGR over FY17-20 leading to improvement in RoE to 29% by FY20
(from 27% in FY17). We recommend BUY with a target price of INR4,197.
BUY
Sadbhav Engineering provides EPC services in the roads, mining and irrigation segments.
It also has a strong BOT portfolio of 18 road projects. The company has strong order book
of INR77bn and expects revenue growth of 18-20% over FY18-20.
We believe that company is well placed to take advantage of the upcoming opportunity in
the road sector, given its execution capability, management bandwidth and recent balance
sheet improvement. Over FY17-20, we expect 17% revenue CAGR and 16% earnings. We
recommend BUY with a target price of INR435.
Sadbhav Engineering
CMP*:
Target:
INR 380
INR 435
BUY
PC Jeweller
CMP*:
Target:
INR 395
INR 490
PC Jeweller is India's 2nd largest Jewelry Retailer with a strong brand presence in North
and Central India. We see an enormous opportunity unfolding in Indian Jewelry as a
result of value migration towards organized players.
We expect strong 25-30% growth in domestic business (64% of sales in FY17), result-
ing in more than doubling of the segment sales over FY17-20. RoCE is likely to improve
BUY
to 19.5% in FY20, led by increasing store-level sales, profitability as well as higher use of
franchisees, making the business asset-light. We recommend BUY with a target price of
INR490.
Nilkamal is a market leader with ~32% share in the moulded furniture segment. It sells
~1.4mn plastic moulded chairs per annum. The company is expected to benefit from the
accelerated shift towards organized Ready Furniture sector due to better aesthetics, de-
sign, quality, etc. Further, GST implementation would also aid shift from unorganized to
organized segment.
The company has free cash flows with very low leverage (D/E of 0.14x FY17). RoE im-
proved from 10% in FY15 to 18% in FY17. We recommend BUY with target price of
INR2,215.
Nilkamal
CMP*:
Target:
INR 1762
INR 2215
BUY
*Data as on 30th November 2017.
2
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Monthly Markets Newsletter
Equity Market Outlook
Markets & Our Recommendations
December 2017
Equity Market Outlook
Technical Outlook
Nifty index saw a volatile month as the index oscillated between 10094 to 10490
USDINR
zones. The highlight of the month was the sell-off that the index saw on the last
day of November expiry which continued even on the next days. Nifty made a
small bodied candle for the month of November which under the context and
location suggests rotational action; a sign that the index is taking a pause in the
ongoing trend. Nifty traded below the 50 DEMA but as the trend is turned side-
ways this signal is questionable. Now Nifty has to hold near to 10094, for short
term bounce back move.
On the news front, the month of November saw better than expected GDP data
and this was followed by PMI data which was also encouraging. We are now
Nifty Weekly
waiting for RBI monetary policy. Though the street does not expect any radical
changes in the rates but the tone of the policy will be watched very carefully.
The top performing sector in the November was IT stocks. The Financial services
sector index ended with small gains but saw a bit of a sell-off from the highs as
several housing finance stocks saw profit booking. Metal sector was a loser as
non-ferrous stocks declined sharply from their recent highs.
On the weekly scale, Nifty fell down sharply and wiped out the gains of previous
two weeks as expiry day blues and jitters on slowdown in economy prompted the
sellers to push the index lower. Index is now near to an important support of
Nifty Daily
10094 which is also a key levels of a rising trend line on Daily and weekly scale.
Another interesting development in Nifty is a descending triangle pattern that is
readily visible. This is contraction of volatility and a possible continuation pattern.
A breakout of the pattern on the upside would mean much higher levels. For the
time being the Nifty has resistance at 10178 and a hold above this could see an up
move towards 10300 then 10400. While on the downside, a decisive hold below
10094 could mean a decline towards 9980 then 9900 zones.
Strategy-
Strategy
Nifty is near to key support of 10094 and if it is not respected then
index could drift towards 10000 then 9900 zones while a hold above 10178
could mean a short term bottom process for an up move towards 10300-10400
zones.
Sectoral Highlights
Sector
IT
Auto
Metal
Our Views
Positive
Positive
Positive
Top Pick
Mind Tree Ltd
TVS Motors
NMDC
MBP / MSP
Buy / 553
Buy / 726
Buy / 133
TGT / SL
593 / 533
768 / 710
143 / 128
Note: #Technical view for 1 month perspective
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Derivatives Market Outlook,
Commodities Market Outlook
Markets & Our Recommendations
December 2017
Derivatives Market Outlook
SECTOR OI
NIFTY - BEAR PUT SPREAD / HEDGE
Nifty witnessed rollover of 63.28% V/s 3 MA of 66.84%. Bank Nifty witnessed
rollover of 55.62% V/s 3 MA of 67.17%. December series started with Open
Interest of 17.83mn shares compared to 23.13mn shares seen at the start of
Buy 1 Lot 10100 PE;
Sell 1 Lot 9900 PE
Stop Loss
: 20 Points
Target
: 155 Points
Premium Paid : 60
Nifty has been making lower highs - lower lows
India VIX has recently jumped by more than 16%
Fresh Call writing at higher strikes suggests that index may find
multiple hurdles near to 10250-10300 zones
Thus, a Hedged, Bear Put Spread is recommended
November series. Rollovers are lower than its last three month average which
suggests that traders are reducing their long bets and expecting some volatility
in the market. Overall long built up were seen in Banking, FMCG and NBFC stocks.
Auto: Long in M&M and Bharatforg while shorts in Eicher Motor and Ashokley
Cement: Long in Dalmia, Shorts covering in ACC and India Cement
Banks : Short Covering in Axis Bank, Shorts in Can Bank, PNB and BOB
Metal: Long in Jindalstel Shorts in VEDL and Hindalco
NBFC: Long in Ujjivan, Manapuram Fin, Shorts in L&TFH, Muthoot Fin and Lichsgfin
OIL&Gas: Long in IGL, ONGC and Gail, Shorts in BPCL
IT: Long in Hexaware, NIIT Tech and Tataelexsi, Shorts in Wipro
Commodities Market Outlook
Roundup
Moody' s seemed to be in a good mood and upgraded India's credit rating one notch higher from Baa3 to Baa2, and changed its credit outlook
for India from positive to stable following expectation of continued progress on economic and institutional reforms. Moody's has also raised
India's long-term foreign-currency bond ceiling to Baa1 from Baa2, and the long-term foreign-currency bank deposit ceiling to Baa2 from Baa3.
Equities as well as the rupee have risen since then, but market will be watchful ahead of the Gujarat election that is held this month. Q2 GDP
number showed the Indian economy grew 6.3% compared to growth of 5.7% in the previous quarter and ended its five quarter slide.
Precious metals ended almost flat in November and have been stuck in a narrow range for the last two months owing to conflicting drivers.
The passage of US tax bill coupled with strong growth momentum in the economy kept gold prices capped at higher levels. The selloff in prices
was however limited as the investigation into Trump campaigns Russian connection progressed. Geo-political factors also helped prices find
support as North Korea test fired its most advanced intercontinental ballistic missile last month. Looking ahead, we believe these factors would
continue to keep gold prices tied in a range but the FOMC meeting and the US debt ceiling debate could provide the much needed direction
to prices.
4
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
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MOSt
Advisor
Monthly Markets Newsletter
MOSt Multi Cap
For Whom :
Investment Duration :
Risk Profile :
Scrip
HDFC Bank
Bajaj Auto
HDFC Standard LiFe
Yes Bank
Zee Ent.
Piramal Enterprises
CG Consumer Elec
Ramco Cement
PC Jeweller
Shriram City Union
Capital First
Can Fin Homes
Granules
Sterling Tools
Cash
Total
*Data as on 30th November 2017.
MOSt Multi Cap , MOSt Velocity
Build a Portfolio
December 2017
Long Term Investors
One year and above
Moderate Investors
Wtg. Sectoral Allocation
10
10
5
10
10
10
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
100
In
: Bajaj Auto, HDFC Standard Life
Insurance , PC Jeweller
We are recommending a MULTI-CAP approach with the
following characteristics:
Corpus requirement of INR 10 Lakhs
40-50% in Large-cap and 50-60% in Mid-cap
15 companies to invest at maximum, 10 minimum
Large-cap stocks are suitable for SIP investments as well
Adheres to our QGLP philosophy
CMP
1854
3306
372
307
568
2774
266
700
395
2051
702
484
128
382
Out : Hero Moto, Dewan Housing,
PI Industries
MOSt Velocity
For Whom :
Investment Duration :
Risk Profile :
Scrip
Tata Motors Ltd
RBL Bank Ltd
Federal Bank Ltd
IOC
Reliance Ind.
Eicher Motors
Maruti Suzuki
Cash
Total
Medium Term Investors
Few months horizon
Moderate Investors
Wtg. Sectoral Allocation
10
10
10
10
10
10
5
5
30
100
In
: Reliance Ind., Maruti Suzuki
Investment characteristics
Corpus requirement of INR 10 Lakhs
Investment Rationale based on TechnoFunda
Maximum stocks open : 10
Cash holding based on market direction call. Cash to be deployed
in case of sharp market falls
10% in a particular Stock and 30% (max) in a Sector
CMP
404
517
111
394
922
29944
8599
LIC Housing Finance 582
Out : Dalmia Bharat
*Data as on 30th November 2017.
5
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
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Advisor
Monthly Markets Newsletter
MOSt PMS - Model Portfolio
Managed Funds
December 2017
MOSt PMS
Performance since inception
Large Cap PMS:
VALUE STRATEGY- An amount of 1 cr. Invested in March 2003 is worth INR 25.62 crore (compounded return of 24.69%)
Multi Cap PMS:
ASK IEP STRATEGY- Amount of 1 cr. Invested in January 2010 is worth INR 4.58 crore (compounded return of 21.4%)
Multi Cap PMS:
NTDOP STRATEGY- Amount of 1 cr. Invested in December 2007 is worth INR 5.80 crore (compounded return of 19.23%)
Small & Midcap PMS:
IOP STRATEGY- Amount of 1 cr. Invested in February 2010 is worth INR 3.75 crore (compounded return of 18.46%)
Latest Performance of all PMS (Portfolio Management Services) strategies. (As on 30th Nov. 2017)
6
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What is Category III Alternative Investment Fund?
Investment Product
Motilal Oswal Focused Emergence Fund
December 2017
New AIF offerings: Motilal Oswal Focused Emergence Fund - (AIF category III)
The Indian AIF industry is giving investors a wider platform for investing across asset classes as this is evident from the steady rise in asset across
all categories. AIF (category III) invests in tradable securities. Unlike, PMS where minimum ticket size is INR 25 lacs, the minimum investment
under AIF is INR 1Cr.
This makes suitable for Ultra HNI investors.
Investments are staggered, which means investors don't need to put the money in one go.
The management fees is between 150 to 175 bps. (1.50% to 1.75%). Which is lower than Mutual Fund expense ratio (2.25% to 2.5%?)
There is a performance fee which means fund manager charges fees if the fund performs.
Execution & tax aspects are also in favor of AIF investors given the structure.
As it will not be available to invest and redeem, this will give the cushion for Fund manager to take call.
Why Motilal Oswal AIF?
Investment strategy remains same of BUY RIGHT & SIT TIGHT through QGLP approach.
Investment in drawdown (40% of commitment amount at first drawdown), this will help the investor and fund manager to time the market
and no need to deploy the amount at Lump sum.
Build focused portfolio of 15-20 stocks.
Closed end fund of 4 years (with extension of 1 year). Means, Fund manager can extend the tenure of product by maximum ONE YEAR if looks
better opportunity to generate returns.
As it's a closed end fund, wherein Investment Manager can take long term investment views which helps the investors to ride the complete
cycle of the business growth
Key features of new AIF "Motilal Oswal Focused Emergence Fund".
7
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
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responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not to hold MOSL or any of its affiliates or employees responsible for any such misuse and further agrees to hold MOSL or any of its affiliates
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Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022-3980 4263; www.motilaloswal.com. Correspondence
Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 3080 1000. Compliance Officer: Neeraj Agarwal, Email Id:
na@motilaloswal.com, Contact No.:022-30801085.
Registration details of group entities.: Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. (MOSL): INZ000158836 (BSE/NSE/MSE); CDSL: IN-DP-16-2015; NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-152-2000; Research Analyst: INH000000412
. AMFI: ARN 17397. Investment Adviser: INA000007100. Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670) offers PMS and Mutual Funds products.
Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409) offers wealth management solutions. *Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS,
Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs and IPO products. * Motilal Oswal Commodities Broker Pvt. Ltd. offers Commodities Products. * Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. offers Real Estate
products. * Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd. offers Private Equity products