MOSt
Advisor
Monthly Markets Newsletter
December 2017
In This Issue
•
Market Outlook for the month
•
Investment Ideas
• Equity Market Outlook
• Derivatives & Commodities Market Outlook
• Model Advisory Portfolios
• Recommended Funds
• New AIF offerings
Key Highlights
Q2 GDP growth accelerates to 6.3%
India's sovereign credit rating upgraded to Baa2 by Moody's
Nifty 2QFY18 PAT growth of 13.4% highest in seven quarters
Dear Investor,
Market in November 2017:
Nifty touched new peak in
November but later took a breather to close at 10,227 (down
1.1% MoM). Nifty Midcap 50 gained 1.7%, led by robust
institutional flows. FIIs bought stocks worth USD3bn, second
consecutive month of inflows. DIIs bought stocks worth
USD1.4bn in November.
On the macro front, India's Real GDP growth picked up to 6.3% in 2QFY18, up from
its three-year low of 5.7% in 1QFY18. India's fiscal deficit for April-October 2017
period reached 96% of FY18 target mainly due to lower revenue collections and rise
in expenditure. The government continued with its review and recalibration of GST,
with the council reducing tax on 178 items under the highest 28% slab to 18%.
Moody's upgraded India's sovereign credit rating to Baa2 from Baa3 and changed
the outlook from positive to stable after nearly 14 years. Moody's cited continued
progress in the nation's economic and institutional reforms such as GST, Demoneti-
Pre. Mth
Global Market
Index
30-Nov 17
MoM (%)
YoY(%)
Sensex
Nifty
FTSE 100
Dow
Nasdaq
Hang Sang
33,149
10,227
7,327
24,272
6,874
29,177
-0.2
-1.0
-2.2
3.8
2.2
3.3
24.4
24.3
8.0
26.9
29.1
28.0
Economic Pulse
Key Indicators Current Mth
zation, Direct Benefit Transfer, Monetary Policy which are expected to drive gradual
improvement in India's fiscal metrics. It expects India's GDP to grow at 6.7% in FY18
and 7.5% in FY19.
The 2QFY18 earnings season exhibited improving trend. Re-stocking post GST rollout,
retention of input tax credits and the early onset of the festive season supported few
B2C sectors, while many corporates sounded optimistic about rural consumption
revival, going ahead. Nifty earnings growth of 13.4% was the highest in last seven
quarters and was mainly driven by Cyclicals.
In Sensex reconstitution, Yes Bank and Indusind Bank will be included while Cipla
and Lupin will be excluded w.e.f. 18th December 2017.
Outlook December 2017:
Nifty has been consolidating in the 10,000-10,500 band.
The 2QFY18 earnings season has formed the base for revival in 2HFY18 and FY19
- which we believe would keep the overall market sentiment positive. Meanwhile,
crude has rallied towards the USD60-65 band and can act as a source of worry if
prices were to rally further. Outcome of the Gujarat state elections would be a key
monitorable.
Siddhartha Khemka
Vice President- Head - Retail Research
IIP
CPI
10 Year Yield
USD/ INR
Crude ($)
Gold (10 gms)
3.8%
3.58%
7.06%
64.46
63.57
29236
4.3%
3.28%
6.86%
64.74
61.37
29333
Thought for the month
1