MOSt Rollover Report
Date:
Friday, April 26, 2013
Nifty Rollovers at 63%, Stock Rollovers at 80%
Nifty Rollovers
Exchange
NSE
SGX
Nifty OI Vs Index
NSE OI
SGX OI
Nifty
Rollovers(%)
63%
71%
3M Avg.
53%
81%
Roll Spread (3MA)
20bps (60bps)
25bps (87bps)
Open Interest
15.8mn
25mn
OI Ch.
+31%
+2%
Nifty rollovers saw late expiry pickup, ending up with stellar lead over avrg.
Lower SGX Rollovers leads to just 2% jump in EoE open interest and a drop in SGX’s
share in Nifty futures to 1.5X from 2X of NSE in previous expiry.
Interestingly the rollover cost on Nifty futures on both the exchanges have been
excessively low, indicating creation of short hedges along the rally in index futures,
eventually being rolled over.
Hence, the view remains cautiously bullish. Even on options front while the OIPCR is
just above the average signalling moderately bullish bias, the IVIX near its lower
bounds indicates over optimism.
60
40
20
0
6500
6000
5500
5000
4500
Stock Rollovers
Sector Rollovers Vs. 3M Avg.
Notble Sectors EoE
Auto:
Short Covering in the sector, except for Maruti which saw fresh longs.
PSU Financials:
Smalller Banks saw longs, larger ones saw short covering.
Pvt. Financials:
Mix of Longs and Short Covering.
Engineering:
Short covering in the entire sector.
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0
-10.0
-15.0
-20.0
Infra:
Short covering in Relinfra, JP Associates. Longs in GMR & IVRCL.
IT:
Fresh Shorts in the sector except Fintech which saw short covering.
Metal:
Shorts continue to roll into May.
EoE Price(%)
EoE OI (%)
Power:
Majority of stocks saw short covering.