MOSt Market Outlook

10th, March 2016

Nifty Outlook

Nifty Fut

7535

Reco

BUY

MBP

7535

Stop Loss

7460

Target

7660

Outlook

3

'Nifty closed above the 7500 level & has resumed its run.

The ongoing momentum is expected to continue

towards the upper end of the weekly channel placed

around 7900. A breach below 7400 could stall this ongoing

momentum & hence serves as a trailing stop for short

term traders.

3

Nifty corrected in line with global cues but

staged a smart recovery to close above 7500 lev-

els. 7400 levels has acted as good supports for

Nifty. Yes Bank, Maruti, Tech Mahindra,Grasim,

Larsen were among the gainers. Metals stock

did see some correction on back of global cues

but did recover from lows. Real estate stocks

were in limelight on back of expectations of

clearance of Real Estate Bill. Reports indicate it

is likely to be taken up today.

Oil prices rebounded after a mild correction.

Brent now trades above $41 levels. INR contin-

ued to see strength and moved closer to 67 lev-

els. Immediate supports for Nifty is seen around

7450/7400 levels while resistance is seen

around 7600/7650 levels. Sustained move above

7500 levels should bring more momentum into

the markets. Private banking, domestic cyclicals

be it cement, auto should continue to do well.

Sectoral Outlook

Sector

Name

BANKS

CEMENT

Sector OUTLOOK

FOR THE WEEK

Positive

Neutral

Trading Idea - Cash & Future

Scrip

ULTRATECH

AXISBANK

Trading Idea - Derivatives

Target

3130

465

Investment Idea

Scrip

Reco

2.35

Reco

Buy

Buy

MBP

3002

419

SL

2960

400

STRATEGY - Hindalco Long Call

Instrument

B/S

Lot

Mar 85 CE

Target Profit

: 5.00

Buy

1

Stop Loss : 1.00

Reco

Buy

Buy

CMP

741

1019

Target

1299

1300

CMP

2.30

HINDPETRO

CANFINHOME

3

MOSt Market Outlook

10th, March 2016

Trading Calls

ULTRATECH

Buy

MBP

Target

INR 3002

INR 3130

Derivatives Idea

AXIS BANK

Buy

MBP

Target

INR 419

INR 465

Hindalco

Long Call

BUY

Buy 1 Lot 85 CE

3

Ultratech saw a fresh breakout from the 'Round-

ing Pattern'.

The ongoing momentum could be traded with

a stop below 2960 for an initial target upto 3130.

3

Multiple reversal patterns confirm the support

at 380. Axis Bank rebounded from the said sup-

port & has been attracting momentum.

3

A breach above 425 could further accelerate

the momentum which can also be participated

with a trading stop below 400.

3

Target Profit : 5.00

3

Stop Loss : 1.00

The stock has sustained above heaviest writ-

ten call strike of 80, which could trigger short

covering

3

Since the momentum could be high and the

move could materialize within just one or two

sessions a Long Call is recommended

FII & DII Activity (Rs. in Cr)

Cat.

FII

DII

Amt

463

-824

MTD

4583

-704

YTD

-59965

96515

FII F&O

Institution

Index Future

Index Options

Stock Futures

Net B/S

154.6

741.6

-1253.4

OI

Long

Long

Long Unwinding

Outlook

Crompton Greaves announced the sale of international power business which has been a concern. The domestic consumer business is valued at 130 levels and

balance business value is seen around 70 levels. The deal effectively takes away the concerns. Also what will be left is a India focussed entity and a balance sheet

with zero net debt. Mindtree was one of the top losers post it scaling down its growth guidance for the quarter.

3

HCL tech post correction looks attractive among the large cap software space. Infosys, HCL tech remain our preferred picks. Reliance Infra was one of the top

gainers as DIPP cleared licenses for Reliance Defense. Overall domestic cyclicals continued to see investment interest.

3

On the basis of our interaction with NBFCs and Banks, M&M finance indicated that the recovery is a couple of quarters away. Also its recovery will hinge on the

monsoon. Banks like HDFC Bank, Indusind and Yes Bank has expressed confidence over the growth. All these banks have been able to grow their retail book at a

strong pace and should continue to do well.

3

MOSt Market Outlook

10th, March 2016

Investment Ideas

Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd.

BUY

CMP

Target

3

Can Fin Homes Ltd.

BUY

CMP

Target

3

INR 741

INR 1299

INR 1019

INR 1300

Post de-regulation and sharp drop in crude prices, we expect market-

ing division profitability to grow rapidly and hence a higher valuation

3

Of the 3 OMCs, HPCL's earnings are more sensitive to a change in mar-

keting margin-given its higher ratio of marketing-to-refining volume.

3

An INR0.5/ltr increase in diesel mktg margin increases FY16E EPS by

32%. Making it the largest beneficiary of higher auto fuel margins.

3

We value HPCL at 5.5x for refining and 8x for marketing to arrive at a

fair value of INR1,299.

Can Fin Homes Ltd. is a South India-based home financier focused on

Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities. Can Fin Homes is India's sixth largest housing

finance company with AUM of 8,251 crore as on 31 March 2015.

3

CANFIN has set a target of achieving a loan book of INR 35,000cr by the

year 2020 which translates to a 33% CAGR in loan book which is much

higher than the 20-22% growth expected for its peers.

3

We estimate CANFIN's loan book to grow at 30% CAGR over FY15-18E

Crompton Greaves: Sale of overseas power subsidiaries a positive; Upgrade to BUY

3

To sell T&D business of Indonesia, US, Hungary, France, Belgium and Ireland for INR 8.5b

3

Sale proceeds to be used to reduce net debt of INR 9b & become debt free

3

Upgrade estimates for FY17/18 by 15%/83%

3

Consumer business valued at 25x FY18 & Industrial business at 15x FY18; TP INR 200

NEWS

3

Dividends - Bajaj Auto (INR 50/sh),

3

Infy: 75L shrs on Offer at INR1149-1178.5; Shibulal Family and Gopalkrishnan Sellers: ET

3

Sebi ends insider trading case against Reliance unit in IPCL merger case

3

Tata Steel, JSW Steel, SAIL may raise prices by INR 1500 rupees/ton for March

3

CRISIL downgrades JSPL to default.

3

Tech M withdraws from Mphasis bid, Apollo Global leads the race for deal: ET

3

India sets Bt cotton hybrid price at 800 rupees per 450 gram, lower price and also lower royalty

MOSt Market Outlook

10th, March 2016

Sacchitanand Uttekar (Technical Analyst)

Sacchitanand.Uttekar@motilaloswal.com

Bhavin Desai (Derivatives Analyst)

Bhavin.Desai@motilaloswal.com

Ravi Shenoy (Midcap Analyst)

Ravi.Shenoy@motilaloswal.com

Sambhu Sa (Research Analyst)

sambhunath@motilaloswal.com

Tina Gadodia (Derivatives Analyst)

Tina.Gadodia@motilaloswal.com

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