MOSt Market Outlook

7th March, 2018

Nifty Chart

Nifty Outlook

Market Drivers

Index

CMP

R1

R2

S1

S2

NIFTY

10,249 10,300 10,333 10,200 10,100

BANK NIFTY 24,448 24,750 25,000 24,000 23,900

'Nifty index opened positive but failed to hold above its

immediate hurdle of 10430 zones and witnessed a sharp

decline towards 10215 levels. It has seen a correction of

more than 200 points from its opening levels and formed

a Bearish candle on the daily scale. It also failed to

complete its gap zone (10447-10428) and formed a

negative price pattern. Now a hold below 10300-10333

could extend its weakness towards 10200 then 10100-

10074 zones while on the upside hurdles are seen at

10333 then 10430 levels.

Currency (USDINR) Outlook

Trading Idea - Cash & Future

Scrip

HDFC Ltd

Reco

SELL

CMP

1782

SL

1810

Target

1730

Benchmark indices witnessed sharp selling on

Tuesday as Sensex fell down by 1.27% to close

at 33,317 while Nifty declined by 1% to settled

at 10249 and closed at fresh lows for this

calendar year. Midcap fell close to 1% and

Small Cap index declined by 1.4%. On sectors

front, banking stocks were biggest losers

followed by Realty and Auto .While at global

front, U.S markets and European markets

ended on a flat note on account of trade spat

over U.S. President Donald Trump's proposed

tariffs. Markets likely to open on a flat to

negative note on account of banking issues and

overall weak domestic sentiments .

Corporate Action:

Company

KPRMILL

YASHCHEM

IOC

LAOPALA

Ex Date

06-Mar-18

14-Mar-18

15-Mar-18

22-Mar-18

Purpose

Bonus issue

Buy Back

Bonus issue

Bonus issue

Bonus issue

Record Date

07-Mar-18

07-Mar-18

15-Mar-18

17-Mar-18

23-Mar-18

GARNETINT 06-Mar-18

USDINR

S1

S2

R1

R2

65.12

64.90

64.65

65.15

65.50

Overall bias remains bullish above 64.65 with

immediate range 64.90 - 65.15.

Sectoral Outlook

Highest Call OI

Instrument

Nifty 28-Mar

Bank Nifty 28 - Mar

Bank Nifty 08 - Mar

Strike

OI

Chg in OI

10,500 45,90,000 6,65,850

26,000 6,92,880 -43,440

25,000 11,71,200 6,50,880

Security in Ban period:

DHFL, FORTIS, HDIL, IDBI, ORIENTBANK

Today Event

Sector

NBFC

BANKS

Trading Idea - Derivatives

Outlook

NEGATIVE

NEGATIVE

Highest Put OI

Instrument

Nifty 28 - Mar

Bank Nifty 28 - Mar

Bank Nifty 08 - Mar

Strike

OI

Chg in OI

10,000 37,12,875 3,51,300

24,000 10,59,480 30,760

24,000 4,46,000

12,320

US: ADP Employment Change , Non-farm

productivity and Trade Balance

STRATEGY : NIFTY: BEAR PUT SPREAD

Instrument

B/S

Lot

Reco

10400

PE

Buy

1

124

10300

PE

Sell

1

92

CMP

248

188

MOSt Market Outlook

7th March, 2018

Trading Calls

HDFC Ltd

Sell

CMP : 1,782; Target : 1,730; SL : 1,810

Derivatives Idea

NIFTY

Bear Put Spread

BUY 1 LOT OF 10400 PE

SELL 1 LOT OF 10300 PE





The stock has broken consolidation zone with rising volume

and fallen below its rising support trend line which indi-

cates further weakness from current levels. Stock is trading

below 50 EMA which has negative implication. RSI indica-

tor also showing negative crossover in all time frame.

Thus, recommending to sell the stock keeping stop loss

above 1810 for immediate target towards 1730 levels.

NET PREMIUM PAID : 30 POINTS

MAX RISK : 30 POINTS (Rs. 2250/-)

MAX REWARD : 70 POINTS (Rs. 5250/-)









It has been making lower top - lower bottom formation

Sustained Call writing is seen at all the immediate strikes

Decline in Put Call Ratio suggests limited upside

Thus, suggesting a Bear Put Spread to play the downside

move of the market

FII & DII Activity (INR in Cr)

FII F&O

5th Mar

-367

-154

1st Mar

242

-3

Institution

INDEX FUTURES

INDEX OPTIONS

STOCK FUTURES

Net B/S

511

1,027

709

OI

Long Built Up

Call Selling & Put Buying

Long Built Up

Cat.

FII

DII

6th Mar

620

-734

MOSt Market Outlook

7th March, 2018

Long Built-up

(OI

Price

)

Short Covering

(OI

Price

)

Short Built-up

(OI

Price

)

Long Unwinding

(OI

Price )

Nifty Option OI

1- Day change in Nifty OI

MOSt Market Outlook

7th March, 2018

Morning Meet Notes

Research Notes

SUN PHARMA - CMP INR532, TP INR675, 27% Upside, BUY

·

·

·

·

No data integrity issue – an encouraging sign.

We expect incremental sales of ~USD100-150m from this facility post resolution.

Earnings recovery expected from FY19:.

Valuation view: At current valuations, the stock does not fully value its rich US pipeline and stable cash-generating domestic business. SUNP has historically

commanded 20-25% premium to Indian pharma peers, typically at 25-27x one-year forward P/E multiples. The company is trading at ~24x/19x FY19E/20E PER,

which is ~15% below 10-year average valuations. Maintain Buy. Target Price INR675.

MOSt Market Outlook

7th March, 2018

Currency Ideas

USDINR

EURINR



Overall momentum still favors the bulls as long as immediate support at

64.90 / 64.65 is being held.

Immediate resistances are placed at 65.15 / 65.50 level.

Sideways consolidation could be seen in the initial session within 64.90 -

65.15 zone.





The pair continues to rise and is trading near contract high at 80.70.

Sustained rise above previous high near 80.60 would be a bullish sign

targeting 80.95 - 81.10 zone.

Dip buying is advised.

Failure to breach 80.60 convincingly could result in correction.









MOSt Market Outlook

7th March, 2018

Upcoming Economic Events Calendar

26-Feb-18

India

UK

US

6-Mar-18

India

UK

Trade Balance and IIP

Factory Orders,

ADP Employment

US Federal Reserve releases

Durable Goods Orders Change , Non-farm

Beige Book, Initial Jobless

productivity and Trade and Continues Claims

Balance

13-Mar-18

India

US

CPI

20-Mar-18

CPI, Retail Price Index

UK

WPI

Retail sales advance

21-Mar-18

Jobless Claims,

Employment Change

Current Account

Balance, Existing home

sales, FOMC rate

decision

14-Mar-18

15-Mar-18

Trade Balance

Initial jobless claims and

Continue claims

22-Mar-18

Retail sales Auto, Bank of

England Bank Rate, BoE Asset

purchase target

Initial jobless claims and

New Home sales

Continue claims,

Manufacturing PMI, Services

PMI and Composite PMI

Housing starts, Industrial

Production, Jolts job opening

23-Mar-18

26-Mar-18

Change in Non-farm payroll ,

Unemployment rate

7-Mar-18

27-Feb-18

28-Feb-18

Nikkei Manf. PMI, Fiscal

Defici, GDP and GVA (YoY)

1-Mar-18

5-Mar-18

Nikkei Manf. PMI and Composite

PMI

Service PMI, Composite PMI

Service PMI, Composite PMI

Manufacturing PMI

GDP, Personal Consumption Initail Jobless Claims and

and Pending Home sales

Continuing Claims,

Manufacturing PMI

8-Mar-18

9-Mar-18

12-Mar-18

CPI and IIP

US

16-Mar-18

19-Mar-18

US

MOSt Market Outlook

Siddhartha Khemka

Head - Retail Research

Chandan Taparia

Derivatives & Technical Analyst

Gaurang Somaiya

Currency Analyst

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