MOSt Market Outlook

25th April, 2018

Nifty Chart

Nifty Outlook

Market Drivers

Index

NIFTY

BANK NIFTY

CMP

10614

25042

R1

10630

25250

R2

10700

25400

S1

10500

24750

S2

10480

24500

Trading Idea - Cash & Future

Scrip

HDFC Ltd

Reco

BUY

CMP

1,860

SL

1,832

Target

1,920

'Nifty index managed to hold 10565 zones and headed

towards 10636 levels. It witnessed buying interest on

declines and supports are gradually shifting higher. It

formed an inside Bar on daily scale as it traded inside

the trading range of last session. Now till it holds above

10550-10565 zones, it has potential to move towards

10630 then 10700 zones while on decline below 10550,

it has major support at 10500-10480 zones.

Sectoral Outlook

Corporate Action:

Company

NBCC

CITURGIA

KPEL

TEJNAKSH

MMTC

Ex Date

25-Apr-18

26-Apr-18

26-Apr-18

26-Apr-18

03-May-18

Purpose

Stock Split

Stock Split

Bonus issue

Bonus issue

Bonus issue

Record Date

26-Apr-18

30-Apr-18

01-May-18

28-Apr-18

04-May-18

Sector

NBFC

PHARMA

Currency (USDINR) Outlook

Outlook

POSITIVE

POSITIVE

Broader indices traded in a range and closed

in positive zone on Tuesday however Nifty

faced resistance near 10630 zones. Bank Nifty

managed to settled above 25000 levels but

Midcap and Small cap counters

underperformed the broader market. On sector

front, NBFC and Pharma stocks gained while

Metals counters ended in red due to sharp

declined in aluminium prices. On global front,

U.S indices declined between 1- 1.5% due to

sell off in industrial and technology companies

and concern over 10 -year treasury yields which

rose to 2.99 % while Europe ended on a flat

note. On domestic front, market likely to remain

volatile due to global pressure however stock

specific action likely to continue due to ongoing

Q4 earnings season.

Highest Call OI

USDINR

S1

S2

R1

R2

Instrument

Strike

OI

Chg in OI

66.39

66.30

66.05

66.70

66.85

Nifty 26-Apr

10,700 44,93,925 -3,64,950

Positive bias remains intact for the pair and it is likely

Bank Nifty 26 - Apr 25,500 9,00,600 -33,360

to target 66.85.

Trading Idea - Derivatives

STRATEGY : NIFTY : BULL CALL LADDER SPREAD

Instrument

B/S

Lot

Reco

10550 CE

Buy

1

54.00

10600 CE

Sell

1

30.00

10650 CE

Sell

1

14.00

CMP

78.00

44.25

20.55

Security in Ban period:

BALRAMCHIN; DHFL; GMRINFRA; WOCKPHARMA

Highest Put OI

Instrument

Strike

OI

Chg in OI

Nifty 26 - Apr

10,500 49,56,975 -8,16,750

Bank Nifty 26 - Apr 24,000 11,24,440 -3,22,000

Today Event

-

MOSt Market Outlook

25th April, 2018

Trading Calls

HDFC LTD

BUY

CMP : 1,860 ; Target : 1,920; SL : 1,832

BULL CALL LADDER SPREAD

Derivatives Idea

NIFTY

BUY 1 LOT OF 10550 CALL

SELL 1 LOT OF 10600 CALL

SELL 1 LOT OF 10650 CALL





'It has taken support at its upward sloping trend line and

moving higher after the decline of last four sessions. It has

been respecting to its 50 DEMA with positive crossover of

Mechanical indicators. Supports are gradually shifting higher

and price set up suggests a fresh momentum.

Thus, recommending to buy the stock with stop loss below

1832 for an upside target towards 1920 levels.

NET PREMIUM PAID : 10 POINTS

MAXIMUM PROFIT 40 POINTS IF IT EXPIRES IN BETWEEN 10600 TO 10650

UNLIMITED RISK IF IT EXPIRES ABOVE 10690

HEDGE : BY BUY FUTURE IF IT GOES ABOVE 10680

MAXIMUM PUT OI IS INTACT AT 10500 STRIKE WHICH COULD HOLD

THE MARKET ON DECLINE



INTACT CALL WRITING AT 10650-10700 COULD RESTRICT ITS UP-

SIDE MOVE



THUS, SUGGESTING BULL CALL LADDER SPREAD TO PLAY THE POSI-

TIVE TO RANGE BOUND



FII & DII Cash Activity (INR in Cr)

FII F&O

(INR in Cr)

20th April

-21

111

Institution

INDEX FUTURES

INDEX OPTIONS

STOCK FUTURES

Net B/S

275

2417

-65

OI

Short Covering

Options Unwinding

Short Built Up

Cat.

FII

DII

24th April

-681

509

23rd April

-259

387

MOSt Market Outlook

25th April, 2018

Long Built-up

(OI

Price

)

Short Covering

(OI

Price

)

Short Built-up

(OI

Price

)

Long Unwinding

(OI

Price )

Nifty Option OI

1- Day change in Nifty OI

MOSt Market Outlook

25th April, 2018

Morning Meet Notes

Research Notes

CHOLAMANDALAM INV & FIN – (CMP1650, TP1930, Recom BUY, 17% upside)

• 4QFY18 PAT grew 32% YoY to INR2.9b

• Disbursements grew 55% YoY & AUM grew 33% YoY

• GNPL ratio declined 74bp QoQ to 2.04%

• It generated an RoE of 21% for FY18

• Over the past three years, it has delivered 25% disbursement CAGR, 19% AUM CAGR and 31% PAT CAGR

•

We have a BUY rating with TP of INR1930 (4x FY20E book)

DELTA CORP: (CMP284, TP327, Recom BUY, 15% upside)

• Revenue rose 59% YoY to INR1,716m in 4QFY18 - (abt est.)

• EBIDTA stood at INR675m and margin expanded 750bp to 39.3% on a YoY basis - (below our est.)

• Adj. PAT rose 2.8% YoY to INR437m - (in line with est)

• Online gaming revenues expected to grow at 45% in FY19-20 but margins to remain under pressure

• We expect sales/PAT CAGR of 26%/33% over FY18-20

• We have a BUY rating with TP of INR327 (32x FY20E EPS)

PERSISTENT SYSTEMS: (CMP726, TP860, Recom BUY, 18% upside)

•

•

•

•

•

•

Reported weak revenue (-4.6% QoQ), due to IP revenue decline

EBITDA margin of 14.8% - (abv. Est)

Lower-than-expected other income, limited the beat on PAT

IP revenue declined USD6.8m QoQ to USD26m (21% of revenue)

Persistent can maintain 15-16% margins going ahead

We have a BUY rating with TP INR860

MOSt Market Outlook

25th April, 2018

Currency Ideas

USDINR

GBPINR



Marginal profit booking was seen in USDINR, closing the previous ses-

sion at 66.39.

Short-term support remains at 66.05 whereas major support is at 65.85.

Dip buying is still advised for the pair targeting 66.70 - 66.85 levels in

short-term.





GBPINR traded with negative bias in the previous session closing at 92.65.

Price sustained trade below 92.80 is signifying further weakness towards

92.40 - 92.15 levels.

Key resistance is capped at 93.25.

Selling is advised for short-term targeting 92.15









MOSt Market Outlook

25th April, 2018

Upcoming Economic Events Calendar

24-Apr-18

India

UK

US

New Home sales

2-May-18

Nikkei Manufacturing

PMI

FOMC Interest rate

decision

9-May-18

India

Trade Balance, Industrial

Production, Manufacturing

Production, BOE Rate decision,

BoE Asset Purchase target

CPI

16-May-18

India

UK

US

Initial jobless calims

17-May-18

18-May-18

21-May-18

3-May-18

Initial Jobless Claims

4-May-18

Nikkei Service PMI and

Composite PMI

Change in Private payroll,

Unempoloyment rate

11-May-18

Industrial Production

14-May-18

WPI and CPI

15-May-18

Trade Balance

Jobless Claims, Employment

Change

GDP

GDP (QoQ)

7-May-18

Personal Income, Personal

spending

8-May-18

25-Apr-18

26-Apr-18

27-Apr-18

30-Apr-18

India

UK

US

Non-farm productivity and

Initial jobless claims, Service

PMI, Composite PMI

10-May-18

UK

US

Retail sales advance

22-May-18

Siddhartha Khemka

Head - Retail Research

Chandan Taparia

Derivatives & Technical Analyst

Gaurang Somaiya

Currency Analyst

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