MOSt Market Outlook
26th April, 2018
Nifty Chart
Nifty Outlook
Market Drivers
Index
NIFTY
BANK NIFTY
CMP
10570
24814
R1
10630
25100
R2
10666
25250
S1
10520
24750
S2
10480
24500
Trading Idea - Cash & Future
Scrip
BAJAJ AUTO
Reco
BUY
CMP
2,900
SL
2,860
Target
2,980
'Nifty index remained range bound but witnessed selling
pressure at last hour of the trading session and made an
intraday low of 10536 zones. It formed a Bearish Candle
on the daily scale which implies that selling is visible at
higher levels as it failed to surpass immediate hurdle of
10630-10640 zones. Now it has to continue to hold above
10520 zones, to extend its move towards 10630 then
10666 zones while on decline next major support exists
at 10500-10480 zones.
Sectoral Outlook
Corporate Action:
Company
NBCC
CITURGIA
KPEL
TEJNAKSH
MMTC
Ex Date
25-Apr-18
26-Apr-18
26-Apr-18
26-Apr-18
03-May-18
Purpose
Stock Split
Stock Split
Bonus issue
Bonus issue
Bonus issue
Record Date
26-Apr-18
30-Apr-18
01-May-18
28-Apr-18
04-May-18
Sector
AUTO
FMCG
Currency (USDINR) Outlook
Outlook
POSITIVE
POSITIVE
Benchmark Indices ended on a weak note on
Wednesday as Sensex and Nifty declined 0.3
% and 0.4 % respectively as selling was
witnessed at higher levels. Midcap , Small cap
and Bank Nifty too ended in negative territory.
On sector front, IT counters hogged limelight
and gained between 3- 4 % on account of weak
rupee (i.e USD/INR 66.90) while banking and
NBFC stocks ended in red due to higher bond
yields. On global front, U.S indices ended on a
flat note as concern over rising U.S bond yields
increased while European declined marginally.
On domestic front, market likely to remain
volatile as today is April F&0 expiry and
firmness in crude prices and weak global cues
will keep market under pressure.
Highest Call OI
USDINR
S1
S2
R1
R2
Instrument
Strike
OI
Chg in OI
67.18
66.95
66.75
67.55
67.75
Nifty 26-Apr
10,700 40,46,400 -4,47,525
Bias around 67.00 is advised for short-term targeting
Bank Nifty 26 - Apr 25,000 10,92,200 4,54,000
67.55 - 67.75 area.
Trading Idea - Derivatives
STRATEGY : NIFTY : BULL CALL LADDER SPREAD
Instrument
B/S
Lot
Reco
10550 CE
Buy
1
54.00
10600 CE
Sell
1
30.00
10650 CE
Sell
1
14.00
CMP
39.55
16.30
5.15
Security in Ban period:
BALRAMCHIN; DHFL; GMRINFRA; RAYMOND
WOCKPHARMA
Today Event
Highest Put OI
Instrument
Strike
OI
Chg in OI
Nifty 26 - Apr
10,500 44,91,000 -4,65,975
Bank Nifty 26 - Apr 24,000 11,42,000 17,560
US - Initial Jobless Claims
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
MOSt Market Outlook
26th April, 2018
Trading Calls
BAJAJ AUTO
BUY
CMP : 2,900 ; Target : 2,980; SL : 2,860
BULL CALL LADDER SPREAD
Derivatives Idea
NIFTY
BUY 1 LOT OF 10550 CALL
SELL 1 LOT OF 10600 CALL
SELL 1 LOT OF 10650 CALL


'The stock has bottomed out with Double Bottom price pat-
tern and started to form higher highs – higher lows from
last three trading sessions. We have seen positive price
pattern in Nifty Auto index and this stock is turning from its
oversold territory so giving a better risk – reward from sup-
port zones.
Thus recommending to Buy the stock with stop loss below
2860 for an upside target towards 2980 levels.
NET PREMIUM PAID : 10 POINTS
MAXIMUM PROFIT 40 POINTS IF IT EXPIRES IN BETWEEN 10600 TO 10650
UNLIMITED RISK IF IT EXPIRES ABOVE 10690
HEDGE : BY BUY FUTURE IF IT GOES ABOVE 10680
MAXIMUM PUT OI IS INTACT AT 10500 STRIKE WHICH COULD HOLD
THE MARKET ON DECLINE

INTACT CALL WRITING AT 10650-10700 COULD RESTRICT ITS UP-
SIDE MOVE

THUS, SUGGESTING BULL CALL LADDER SPREAD TO PLAY THE POSI-
TIVE TO RANGE BOUND

FII & DII Cash Activity (INR in Cr)
FII F&O
(INR in Cr)
23rd April
-259
387
Institution
INDEX FUTURES
INDEX OPTIONS
STOCK FUTURES
Net B/S
163
237
319
OI
Long Built Up
Synthetic Short
Long Built Up
Cat.
FII
DII
25th April
-305
436
24th April
-681
509
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
MOSt Market Outlook
26th April, 2018
Long Built-up
(OI
Price
)
Short Covering
(OI
Price
)
Short Built-up
(OI
Price
)
Long Unwinding
(OI
Price )
Nifty Option OI
1- Day change in Nifty OI
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
MOSt Market Outlook
26th April, 2018
Morning Meet Notes
Research Notes
Ultratech Cement: CMP INR4,114, TP INR4,818, Buy, Upside 17%
·
·
·
·
Volumes grow led by JPA ramp-up
Sequential improvement in profitability
FY18 Performance: Revenue/EBITDA up 25%/18% while PAT was down -20% on account of JPA acquisition and higher depreciation.
Valuation view: UTCEM is likely to witness strong growth in EBITDA in FY19, led by the full impact of ramp-up of acquired capacity and growth in underlying
markets. Maintain Buy with a TP of INR4,818/share, implying a 17% upside.
Mahindra Financial Services: CMP INR507, TP 600, Buy, Upside 18%
·
·
·
·
Growth picks up sharply; Trend to continue in FY19.
Asset quality improves sequentially; further improvement expected in FY19.
NIM stable YoY at 10.5%.
Valuations and view: With an improving macro environment, there is clear visibility of an improving RoA/RoE trajectory. We increase our FY19/20 EPS estimates
by 8/16% to factor in strong growth. We use SOTP to arrive at a TP of INR600.
Zensar Technologies : CMP INR1,208, TP 1,400, Buy, Upside 16%
· Encouraging traction in Digital and the US.
· Margin was in-line excluding one-time provision.
· Notable progress on its objectives like scaling of focus areas like digital and top clients or ramping down the non-core assets
· Valuations and view: We expect revenue/PAT CAGR of 13%/27% with margin improvement of 240bps over FY18-20. Maintain Buy with a TP of INR1,400.
Bharti Airtel: CMP INR420, TP INR581, Buy, Upside 38%
·
·
·
ARPU downtrading continues to pull down EBITDA.
M&A to provide some comfort in FY19 as APRU finds no floor.
Valuation view: Resurgence in the India wireless business, together with other moving levers of Africa, is expected to drive consol. revenue/EBITDA CAGR of
7%/9% over FY18-20E. Valuing India business at 10x EV/EBITDA FY20 and Africa business at 7x Dec-19E EBITDA, our SOTP-based TP of INR581 remains unchanged.
Maintain Buy.
Oberoi Realty: CMP INR571, TP INR654, Buy, Upside 15%
· Flattish volumes; booking value lower by 24% YoY.
· Multiple new launches and focus on pre-sales velocity in FY19.
·
·
Subvention schemes to help churn inventory
Valuation view: We maintain our positive view on the stock, with RoE/RoCE expected to improve to 25%/19% by FY19. Maintain Buy.
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
MOSt Market Outlook
26th April, 2018
Currency Ideas
USDINR
JPYINR

Positive run-up for the pair is likely to remain intact and it looks to target
67.55 - 67.75 levels.
Immediate support is placed at 66.95 whereas short-term support is at
66.65.
Initial dip towards 67.00 will be a good buying area.



JPYINR traded with positive bias in the previous session closing at 61.63.
Immediate supports are at 61.40 - 61.15 whereas major support is at 60.60.
Buying near immediate support is advised for short-term targeting 61.90
- 62.05 area.


 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
MOSt Market Outlook
26th April, 2018
Upcoming Economic Events Calendar
24-Apr-18
India
UK
US
New Home sales
2-May-18
Nikkei Manufacturing
PMI
FOMC Interest rate
decision
9-May-18
India
Trade Balance, Industrial
Production, Manufacturing
Production, BOE Rate decision,
BoE Asset Purchase target
CPI
16-May-18
India
UK
US
Initial jobless calims
17-May-18
18-May-18
21-May-18
3-May-18
Initial Jobless Claims
4-May-18
Nikkei Service PMI and
Composite PMI
Change in Private payroll,
Unempoloyment rate
11-May-18
Industrial Production
14-May-18
WPI and CPI
15-May-18
Trade Balance
Jobless Claims, Employment
Change
GDP
GDP (QoQ)
7-May-18
Personal Income, Personal
spending
8-May-18
25-Apr-18
26-Apr-18
27-Apr-18
30-Apr-18
India
UK
US
Non-farm productivity and
Initial jobless claims, Service
PMI, Composite PMI
10-May-18
UK
US
Retail sales advance
22-May-18
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Siddhartha Khemka
Head - Retail Research
Chandan Taparia
Derivatives & Technical Analyst
Gaurang Somaiya
Currency Analyst
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