MOSt Market Outlook

12th March 2019

Nifty Chart

Nifty Outlook

Index

NIFTY

CMP

11,168

R1

R2

S1

S2

11,250 11,333 11,118 11,080

28,200 28,388 27,750 27,500

BANKNIFTY 27,966

'Nifty index opened positive and headed towards its fresh

26 weeks high of 11180 zones. It has been making higher top

- higher bottom formation and supports are gradually

shifting higher with medium term support at 10985 zones. It

formed a Bullish candle on daily scale and needs to hold

above 11118 zones to extend its gains towards 11200 then

11250-11333 zones. Overall setup and momentum is positive

and a hold of recent zones could continue its further

momentum while support exists at 11118 then 11050 zones.

Sectoral Outlook

Market Drivers

Indian equity index Nifty ended on a 6 months

high near 11200 zones while Sensex closed above

37000 zones on Monday. BankNifty continued its

positive momentum and extend its gains towards

28000 zones. Midcap and Smallcap indices surged

2% each and overall market breadth was in favour

of the Bulls. On sectorial front, buying was seen

in all the indices except Technology counters and

lower VIX levels supporting bullish momentum.

On global front, Wall Street and European indices

ended on a positive note. On domestic front,

market likely to open on a strong note due to

supportive domestic and global cues and positive

momentum likely to continue.

Trading Idea - Cash & Future

Scrip

KOTAK BANK

Reco

Buy

CMP

1249

SL

1227

TARGET

1293

Sector

Oil & Gas

Private Bank

Currency (USDINR) Outlook

Outlook

Positive

Positive

Highest Call OI

Instrument

Nifty 28-Mar

Bank Nifty 28- Mar

Nifty 14-Mar

Bank Nifty 14- Mar

Strike

11400

28000

11200

28200

OI

2246550

441480

1162350

531580

Chg in OI

515475

5080

87375

175580

Duration : 2-3 Days

Security in Ban period:

USDINR

70.03

S1

69.87

S2

69.65

R1

70.20

R2

70.40

IDBI

JETAIRWAYS

RELINFRA

RPOWER

Today Event

The pair is likely to trade between support at 69.87 - 69.65

and resistance at 70.20 - 70.40

Highest Put OI

Instrument

Nifty 28-Mar

Bank Nifty 28- Mar

Nifty 14-Mar

Bank Nifty 14- Mar

Strike

11000

27000

11000

27500

OI

3788475

480140

2283300

597700

Chg in OI

417675

40520

732300

48120

Trading Idea - Derivatives

STRATEGY : NIFTY : Short Strangle Strategy

Instrument

Reco

Lot Reco Price

10100 PE

Sell

1

21.50

11300 CE

Sell

1

20.50

CMP

4.85

76.05

N.A.

MOSt Market Outlook

Trading Calls

KOTAK BANK

BUY

CMP: 1249

Target : 1293

SL : 1227

(Duration : 2-3 Days)

Derivatives Idea

NIFTY

Short Strangle Strategy

SELL 1 LOT OF 10100 PUT @ 21.50

SELL 1 LOT OF 11300 CALL @ 20.50

NET PREMIUM RECEIVED : 42 POINTS

✓

✓

The stock has taken a support at its previous breakout zone

and turned higher on daily scale while It is on the verge of

breakout from its Inverse Head & Shoulder formation on lower

degree time frames. It is also respecting to its 50 weekly

EMA and making higher highs - higher lows formation which

indicates strength in the stock.

Thus, recommending to buy the stock with stop loss below

1227 for an upside target towards 1293 levels.

KEEP STOP LOSS OF NET PREMIUM OF 84 POINTS (RISK OF 42 POINTS)

MAX REWARD : 42 POINTS

MARGIN REQUIRED : Rs. 1,54,000/- Approx

✓

✓

✓

Index has been trading in broader trading range from 10500

to 11000 zones.

Maximum Put OI is at 10700 followed by 10500 which could

provide support on declines

Maximum Call OI is at 11000 followed by 11200 strike which

could restrict its upside momentum

FII F&O

(INR in Cr)

FII & DII Cash Activity (INR in Cr)

Cat.

FII

DII

11th Mar

3811

-1956

8th Mar

1095

-471

7th Mar

1138

-925

e

Institution

INDEX FUTURES

INDEX OPTIONS

STOCK FUTURES

Net B/S

-13

480

751

OI

Long Unwinding

Call Buying & Put Writing

Long Built Up

MOSt Market Outlook

Long Built-up

(OI

Price

)

Short Covering

(OI

Price

)

Short Built-up

(OI

Price

)

Long Unwinding

(OI

Price )

Nifty Option OI

1- Day change in Nifty OI

MOSt Market Outlook

Research Notes

Morning Meet Notes

TCS: Transformative capabilities allowing choice of higher value; Impact from supply situation minimal; macro good, but caution merited for CY19

(CMP INR2015, TP INR2000, 1% Downside, Neutral)

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

Business traction on the ground prevails but caution about current macro prevailing through all of CY19 and right offerings in ‘new’ mean tying up

fortunes with customers’ cycles

As incremental growth in recent years has tapped into clients’ non-CIO (i.e. business) budgets, the coupling with clients’ business fortunes is higher.

While this means greater stickiness and more opportunities, it also implies a natural impact on business at par with that of its customers.

Pivot of business model lends comfort over medium-to-long term

TCS’ ability in proactive Transformative Digital deals helps it win its share of large deals that have greater value than plain cost takeout engagements.

This also drives its comfort in sustained growth over the medium-to-long term by participating in clients’ transformation.

Margin headwinds in 3QFY19 from sub-contractor costs may be short-lived

Lowest attrition is both an outcome and a driver of TCS’ strong positioning, hence, confidence around sustenance of margins remains

We expect constant currency revenue CAGR of 10.5% over FY18-21 and EPS CAGR of 14.5%, 26-28% EBIT margin during this period.

Our price target of INR2,000 discounts forward earnings by 20x, implying minimal upside.

MOSt Market Outlook

Currency Ideas

USDINR

GBPINR

✓

The pair has good as support in the range of 69.60 - 69.40 level while it is

likely to face stiff resistance at 70.20-70.40 level. Pair is expected to trade

in a range bound market for the day.

✓

The pair has good as short term support in the range of 90.90-90.70 level.

Pair is likely to give pullback and the may test the resistance zone of 92.20

-92.40 level. Buying on dips is thus advised.

Siddhartha Khemka

Head - Retail Research

Chandan Taparia

Derivatives & Technical Reseaech Analyst

Gaurang Somaiya

Currency Research Analyst

This report is intended for distribution to Retail Investors.

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