A Monthly Newsletter on Wealth Management
wealth
In This Issue
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Market Outlook for the month
Equity Market Outlook
Derivatives & Commodities Market Outlook
Large Cap and Mid Cap Investment Ideas
Model Advisory Portfolios
Recommended Funds
key product to Successful Investing
MOSt
September 2012
Key Highlights for the Month
FIIs continued to be buyers with inflow of
Rs9,712cr
Monsoon has gained momentum, still 12% below normal
Metal Sector to underperform due to falling international
commodities prices
Dear Investor,
The Nifty for the month of August broke out of its range
above 5350 and made a high of 5448, but, was unable to
hold on to higher levels and reversed to close 29 points
higher at 5259 level. FIIs continued to be buyers with inflow
of
Rs9,712cr,
while DII were sellers to the extent of
Rs1,600cr.
The Monsoon session of parliament was a stalled after coal allocation report tabled by
CAG. Overall expectation of reforms was completely washed out in this drama with no
major bill being passed. On the positive side monsoon has picked momentum, as per
IMD it is 12% below normal against 19% last month. Quarterly GDP data came in at
5.5%, and July inflation at 6.9%, a 32 month low surprised market positively. FED policy
meet towards end of month kept the possibility of QE3 open.
1QFY13 Earning Review aggregate performance were in line with estimates, companies
in our universe that beat estimates outnumber the laggards by over 1.5:1. This has been
led by Financials, Healthcare and Cement. For FY13 Sensex EPS is expected to grow 8%
to 1,213 and FY14 EPS to grow 14% to 1,380. Post results we have downgraded Bharti
Airtel to Neutral and maintain underperformer view on Metal Sector largely due to falling
commodities prices, we have sell rating on Tata Steel, JSW Steel & SAIL.
Market at a glance
Index
Sensex
Nifty
FTSE 100
Dow
Nasdaq
Hang Sang
31-Aug-12
17,430
5,259
5,711
13,091
3,067
19,483
MoM (%)
1.1
0.6
1.3
0.6
4.3
-1.6
YoY (%)
4.5
5.2
-1.8
12.7
18.9
-5.1
Economic Pulse
Key Indicators
IIP (Jun)
WPI (July)
10 Year Yield
USD/ INR
Crude ($)
Gold (10 gms)
Current
Month
-1.80%
6.87%
8.24%
55.41
114.57
30735
Change
2.40%
7.25%
8.24%
55.7
104.92
30199
Rikesh Parikh - Vice President
Way Forward
RBI meet on Sept 17th in backdrop of inflation below 7% and manufacturing growth
at just 0.2% in overall GDP growth keeps expectation of rate cut alive. Shome
committee recomending GAAR to be deferred by 3 years and Mauritius tax treaty to
be continued, if accepted, would bring some confidence back among FII's.
Thought for the month
Threats
Logjam in parliament due to Coalgate reports and its impact on companies.
Brent Crude price rebounding back to $114.50 will put a strain on fiscal condition.
Opportunities
Continuation of FII flow to lend support as market is trading below its historical
valuation.
Pick up in monsoon will lend support to sustenance of rural consumption theme.

September 2012
wealth
Equity Market Outlook
Technical Outlook
•
MOSt
On This Page
Equity Market Outlook
Markets & Our Recommendations
MOSL's Recommendations
•
•
Sell positions could be made below 5200 for a
potential of 5030 & a stop above 5315.
Long positions could be made above 5350 for
a potential of 5450 & a stop below 5295.
Nifty for the month of August ended with a gain of 29 points. After opening
flat, index moved above its important resistance point of 5350 but failed to
sustain and close above the same. After reporting a high around 5450 i.e.
76.4% retracement of the fall from 5630-4770, it was unable to sustain and
reversed back into its trading range.
On the weekly chart, weakness was indicated by the formation of a shooting
star pattern which was confirmed with a break below 5360. Next support
area for the index on the short term scale is around 5200 which is the gap
area on the daily chart with medium term support at 5030. On the upside,
5450 can turn into a strong resistance and a move above it could induce
sustainable advances possibly backed with good momentum.
The seasonality effect on Nifty indicates that post August market has higher
odds of entering a directional trend which could last throughout the calen-
dar year. Vix has been quoting at the lower band and uptick from the same
can be supportive to the seasonality effect.
Monthly chart failed to close above the hurdle of 5350
Resistance for Nifty is placed at 5450 with support at 5030
Seasonality chart indicates directional movement post August
Outperformance should continue in Pharma, FMCG and Media
•
Nifty
•
5450
5030
BANK NIFTY
Banking has been underperforming in relative terms
Relative strength chart is placed at a verge of breakdown
Immediate support is placed at 9900
Band of 10300-10350 can act as an exhaustion area
Breach of support can lead to the thrust of 9650
10650
9000
Sectoral Highlights
Sector
Pharma
Media
FMCG
Metal
#Technical view for 1 month perspective
Our Views
Positive
Positive
Positive
Negative
Top Pick
Glenmark
Zee Ltd
Tata Global
Tata Steel
Recommendation
#
Buy above 435
Buy above 170
Buy above 134
Sell below 355
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September 2012
wealth
Derivatives Market Outlook
3
Aug Series witnessed Total Rollovers of 81% (6m-avg 82%), Nifty rollovers of 61%
(6m-avg 62%). Total Open Interest at the start of Sep'12 expiry is
Rs930.6bn
as against
Rs916.2bn
at the start of Aug'12 expiry.
3
Stocks which have witnessed rise in near month OI over the last 3 expirys include Bharti
Airtel, SBI whereas stocks which have witnessed drop in near month OI over the last 3
expirys include Tata Steel, Maruti. Stocks witnessing drop in near month OI series after
rising for the last 3 series include Bhel, ICICI Bank, BPCL whereas stocks with rise in near
month OI after falling for the last 3 months is Petronet, Mcleod Russel.
3
In Sept series for Nifty, highest Call OI is at 5500 strike with 7 mn shares and highest Put
OI is at 5200 strike with 7.2 mn shares.
MOSt
On This Page
Derivatives Market Outlook
Commodities Market Outlook
Markets & Our Recommendations
Our Recommendation
INDEX: NIFTY
Strategy
Premium Outflow
Span margin
:
:
:
LOT SIZE: 50
Bear Spread
Rs2,600/-
(Per Pair)
Rs14,000/-
(approx)
Pay off Profile On Expiry
Break Even
Point
5248
Maximum
Profit
7400
Maximum
Loss
2600
Strategy of the Month
•
•
•
Strategy
Trade
View
:
Bear Spread
:
Buy Nifty 5300 Put & Sell Nifty 5100 Put.
:
Nifty failed to sustain above 5400 level and has formed shooting star
pattern on weekly chart which is bearish in nature. Highest OI built up
for Nifty for Sept Series is between 5200 to 5000 level indicating mar
ket to take support in that range.
Commodities Market Outlook
3
Lead which is mainly used in batteries closed with a positive note for the second straight
month and is expected to continue its positive bias in the short-run. It is seen that London
Metal Exchange (LME) lead stocks have dropped steeply in the past two weeks of August.
Available stocks in LME registered warehouses have slumped by around 92,000 tons, or
32%, since Aug. 13. The draw downs are partly due to the fact that battery makers in
Southeast Asia are scrambling to get supplies of high-grade lead, at 99.9% purity, after a
drop-off in production from Japan and in exports from China.
3
Taking the above facts in to consideration, we expect upside in lead prices in short term,
but the ongoing worries of slowdown in China which is a major consumer of metal may
cap the gains.
Our Recommendation
Commodity
Gold
Copper
Crude
Turmeric
1 month
Return
5.04%
0.47%
9.12%
5.92%
Buy
Sell
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Pick of the Month - Lead
Lead
Commodity
Lead
Data as on 31st August 2012
CMP
107
Stop Loss
103
Target
117
Duration
1 Month
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September 2012
wealth
Large Cap Investment Ideas
MOSt
On This Page
Large Cap Investment Ideas
Mid Cap Investment Ideas
Must Act
3
JSW Steel (JSTL) has expanded its capacity
Market & Our Recommendation
6x to 10mtpa through brownfield expansions.
With the acquisition of Ispat Industries and Salem Steel, it controls 14mtpa capacity.
JSW Steel
CMP*:
Target:
Rs694
Rs542
SELL
3
JSW Steel post merger with JSW Ispat will have net debt of
Rs362bn
by March 2013 and
net debt/equity of 2.3x.
3
We will be more comfortable if JSW Steel rejigs its strategy to focus on deleveraging
rather than pursuing aggressive growth. Stock is trading at expensive FY14 valuation of
6.9x EV/EBITDA and 12.6x P/E. Reiterate SELL.
3
Tata Steel (TATA), the lowest cost steel producer in India, has become the sixth largest
steel maker in the world after the acquisition of Corus.
Tata Steel
CMP*:
Target:
Rs361
Rs244
SELL
3
TSE operational issues have now been largely resolved. However, the European steel
demand has weakened further and prices are lower. We expect both volumes and prices
to be under pressure in 2Q and 3Q for TSE.
3
We expect Tata Steel India's margin to shrink to USD278/ton in FY13 and USD251/t in
FY14 (vs USD347/t in FY12). We have cut consolidated FY14 EPS by 9% to
Rs46.4.
Stock is trading at FY14 EV/EBITDA of 6.5x. Reiterate SELL.
Mid Cap Investment Ideas
3
The largest organized player in footwear with one of the best balance sheet and
return ratios in the industry.
3
Excellent proxy to play consumer demand in India, which will ensure good stock
Bata India
CMP*:
Target:
Rs888
Rs1,025
BUY
performance in the short run because of investor's flight to safety due to prevailing
uncertainty in the economy.
3
Strong cash flows will ensure strong addition of stores through internal accruals -
This is helping transform the company into a marketing entity rather than a producer.
3
BUY with a 12 month target of
Rs1025
(27x CY13E) for 15% upside.
3
GMDC has lignite mines with ~15cr tonnes of reserves. Lignite, Bauxite and Power
were 76%, 5% and 18% of revenues.
3
GMDC is the only company in Gujarat licensed to sell lignite and enjoys good visibil-
GMDC
CMP*:
Target:
Rs190
Rs232
BUY
ity of volume and pricing growth because of lack of competition.
3
Healthy EBIDTA margin of ~45% and very strong cash generation.
3
At current price of
Rs190,
the stock is quoting at a P/E of 10x on FY13e earings.
3
BUY with a target of
Rs232
(12.5xFY13E).
*Data as on 31st August 2012
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September 2012
wealth
MOSt Value -
Scrip
ICICI Bank
Dr Reddy
SBI
Maruti
HCL Tech
L&T
Sintex Industries
Coal India
CESC
Hindalco
Oberoi Realty
Cash
Total
MOSt
On This Page
MOSt Value
MOSt Velocity
MOSt Mid-Cap
Build a Portfolio
Model Advisory Portfolio for Investors
MBP
920
1680
1875
1150
550
1350
55
355
310
110
230
Wtg.
10
10
10
10
10
10
5
5
5
5
5
15
100
Sectoral Allocation
For Whom
Long Term
Investors
to a year
Investment Duration
For few months
Risk Profile
Defensive
Investors
What’s In
Coal India
What’s Out
Infosys
Reliance
MOSt Velocity 10 -
Scrip
SBI
Dr Reddy
Engineers India
JP Associates
HDFC Ltd
Hindalco
Oberoi Realty
NIIT Tech
JSW Energy
GMDC Ltd
PFC Ltd
Cash
Total
Model Advisory Portfolio for Positional Traders
Wtg.
7.50
7.50
7.50
7.50
7.50
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
32.50
100.0
MBP
1875
1680
215
70
740
110
230
280
48
195
165
Sectoral Allocation
For Whom
Medium Term
Investors
horizon
Investment Duration
Few months
Risk Profile
Moderate
Investors
MOSt Mid Cap-
Scrip
Eicher Motors
Madras Cement
Bajaj Finance
GMDC
Emami
NIIT Technologies
Allahabad Bank
Engineers India
VST Industries
Mcleod Russel
Total
Model Portfolio for Aggressive Investors
MBP
2150
180
1070
195
490
280
125
215
1700
320
Wtg.
12.45
12.40
11.55
11.25
10.62
10.31
9.98
9.46
6.51
5.48
100
Sectoral Allocation
For Whom
Long Term
Investors
to a year
Investment Duration
For few months
Risk Profile
Aggressive
Investors
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September 2012
wealth
MOSt PMS
Value Strategy
•
Scrips
MOSt
On This Page
MOSt PMS
MOSt Mutual - Model Portfolio
Managed Funds
Top Holdings in Value Strategy
% Holdings
12.17
10.95
10.10
8.13
7.99
HDFC Bank Ltd
Bosch Ltd
Nestle India Ltd.
Hero Motocorp Ltd.
HDFC Ltd
The Strategy aims to benefit from the Long term compounding effect on invest-
ments done in good businesses, run by great business managers for superior
wealth creation.
Value Strategy has the investment style of buying Undervalued stock & Sell over-
valued stocks, irrespective of Index Movements.
Since Inception Value Strategy has delivered CAGR returns of 27.70 % Vs.
19.04 % of S&P CNX Nifty.
Money multiplied by 10 times in just 9+ years.
Rs1
Cr invested in Value
PMS in March 2003 is worth
Rs10.07crs
vs. 5.20crs in S&P CNX Nifty.
More than Double the returns compared to Benchmark.
In last 3 years,
Value Strategy has delivered 9.72% annualized returns vs. 4.09% of CNX Nifty.
•
•
•
•
Sector Allocation
Banking & Finance
Auto & Auto Ancillaries
FMCG
Pharmaceuticals
Infotech
(%)
26.52
23.73
15.15
10.34
7.18
Data as on 31st August 2012
MOSt PMS
NTDOP Strategy
•
Top Holdings in NTDOP Strategy
Scrips
Page Industries Ltd.
Bosch Ltd.
Bajaj Finance
Eicher Motors Ltd.
Glaxo Consumer.
The strategy aims to deliver superior returns by investing in focused themes which
are part of the next Trillion Dollar GDP growth opportunity. It aims to predomi-
nantly invest in Small & Mid Cap stocks with a focus on Identifying emerging
Stocks/Sectors.
The strategy aims to capitalize on the themes of Consumerism, Banking & Finan-
cial Services & Infrastructure in the Indian Economy.
Since Inception NTDOP Strategy has delivered annualized 7.14% returns vs. -
4.24% of CNX Midcap, delivering an annualized alpha of 11.38%.
In last 3 Years, NTDOP Strategy has delivered 15.33% annualized returns vs.
4.91% of CNX Midcap and generated an annualized alpha of 10.39%.
% Holdings
15.45
9.11
8.63
7.12
6.91
•
•
•
Sector Allocation
Auto & Auto Ancillaries
Banking & Finance
Textiles
Engineering & Electricals
FMCG
(%)
20.19
18.58
15.45
9.43
6.91
Data as on 31st August 2012
All the above figures are of a model client. Returns shown above are calculated on NAV method "Returns shown above are post fees & expenses
MOSt Mutual - Model Portfolio
AGGRESSIVE - High Risk
Scheme Name
Franklin India Bluechip - G
ICICI Prudential Discovery Fund - G
Reliance Equity Opportunities F - G
HDFC Short Term Plan - G
Type
E
E
E
D
Return %
1yr
4.32
13.17
11.87
9.26
9.70
11.51
3yrs
9.01
13.61
18.14
7.63
--
7.67
Wtg%
20%
15%
15%
15%
20%
15%
100
DEFENSIVE - Low Risk
Scheme Name
Type
E
E
D
D
D
D
Return %
1yr
6.86
7.15
10.02
9.60
9.66
9.26
3yrs
11.28
11.47
8.02
8.12
7.46
7.63
Wtg%
15%
15%
20%
20%
15%
15%
100
Data as on 31st August 2012
ICICI Pru Focused Bluechip Eq F-Ret-G
UTI Opportunities Fund - G
Birla Sun Life Dynamic Bond F-Ret-G
Templeton India STIP - G
Birla Sun Life MIP II - Savings 5 - G
HDFC Short Term Plan - G
Total
Templeton India Income Opport F - G D
DSP BlackRock MIP Fund - G
Total
G: Growth , E: Equity, D: Debt
D
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August 2012
September 2012
wealth
Guiding Philosophy
• Blue chip investing
• Apt diversification
• Rupee Cost Averaging
• Disciplined Investing
MOSt
On This Page
Scenario Today
Operatives
How it works
MOSt Pyramid
Markets Range-bound
Nifty traded in a narrow range,
reducing earning opportunity
from passive investing
Approach
• Portfolio diversification in 4-5 sectors
• Investment in specific blue chip stocks
• Investment in 4 tranches
• Value averaging by buying at lower levels
• Regular profit booking, reducing acquisition costs
• Strategic entry and exit @ -5% & +6% respectively
Attractive Valuations
Valuations look attractive,
stocks trading below
historically low price to
earnings multiple
Steady Earnings Growth
Stock Picks
We conducted in-depth analysis and
arrived on the below list of blue chip stocks
which are market/sectoral leader with
strong fundamentals:
• ICICI Bank • SBI
• Dr. Reddy
• Coal India • L&T
List is indicatives & might change with a change in
research view
MOSt
Pyramid
The smarter way to invest
Our research predicts
steady growth in earnings
in the near future
Rationale
• Creating short-term earning
opportunities
• Reducing investment risk through
Blue chip investing
• Stabilizing portfolios by
investing in fundamentally
good stocks
How it works
Bullish Market
Bearish Market
Please note: This is only a suggested investment strategy and in no means should be considered as a tool for guaranteed return or a Portfolio
Management Service.
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MOSt and/or its affiliates and/or employees may have interests/positions, financial or otherwise in the securities mentioned in this report. To enhance transparency, MOSt has incorporated a Disclosure of Interest Statement in this
document. This should, however, not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement:
Analyst ownership of the stock: None
Group/Directors ownership of the stock : Bharti Airtel, Birla Corporation, Cairn India, Coal India,GSK Pharma, Honda MotoCorp, IDFC, IOC, Marico, Nestle India, Oriental Bank, South Indian Bank, State Bank, Tata Steel
Broking relationship with company covered: State Bank of India
Investment Banking relationship with company covered: None
Analyst Certification: The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be
directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report. The research analysts, strategists, or research associates principally responsible for preparation of MOSt research
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The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S. registered broker-dealer, Marco Polo and therefore,
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