MOSt
Advisor
Monthly Markets Newsletter
December 2015
In This Issue
•
Market Outlook for the month
• Equity Market Outlook
• Derivatives & Commodities Market Outlook
• Large Cap and Mid Cap Investment Ideas
• Model Advisory Portfolios
• Recommended Funds
• Client Portal
Key Highlights for the Month
Sensex EPS cut by 2%; 6% growth in FY16
GST - will it go through?
Fed - 15bps or 25bps? What Next?
Dear Investor,
Market performance:
The S&P BSE Sensex gave away
gains of the previous month with a 2.6% decline. Drop
in Sun Pharma (by 18%), L&T and HDFC (by 3% each)
caused most of the damage. Banking, IT and Auto
remained strong.
Global Market
Index
30-Nov-15
MoM (%)
YoY(%)
Earnings downgraded:
Aggregate sales of MOSL uni-
verse (ex RMs) de-grew 4% (est of 3% de-growth), EBITDA was flat (est of flat growth),
PAT declined 6% (est of 5% decline). PAT growth was seen in Private Banks (15%),
NBFCs (15%), Utilities (17%) and Technology (11%). Metals (-43%), Cap Goods (-
36%), PSU Banks (-25%), Automobiles (-24%) and Telecom (-18%) were the major
drags.
We have cut our Sensex EPS FY16E by 2% to INR1,435 (6% growth).
Policy actions & Economic data:
Parliament sessions under the current government
have been disastrous for the market with upto a 7% decline during the session.
Expectations from the current session are high with GST Bill and FDI approvals on
stake. Also, the Pay Commission Recommendations will burden the government with
Sensex
Nifty
FTSE
Dow
Nasdaq
Hang Sang
26,146
7,935
6,356
17,720
5,109
21,996
-1.9
-1.6
-0.1
0.3
1.1
-2.8
-8.9
-7.6
-5.5
-0.6
6.6
-8.3
Economic Pulse
Key Indicators Current Month
Change (%)
IIP
WPI
10 Year Yield
USD/ INR
Crude ($)
Gold (10 gms)
3.6%
-3.81%
7.78%
66.66
44.61
25266
-43.75
-
1.83
2.15
-9.99
-4.67
an INR1.08Lakh crore bill. This raises fiscal deficit concerns and will restrict
government's productive expenditure in FY17. GDP data for 2Q is not encouraging
with 6% Nominal growth, down from 12-15% range that it has been in since almost
1990s. This is a number that Foreign Investors watch out for closely and given the
selling from FPIs should be a concern for domestic investors.
Outlook:
Markets are likely to await policy action or earnings growth before any
further upmove. The quantum of Fed policy action (15 or 25 bps) and signals for
future direction will be a driver of currency as well as equity direction. We advise
investors to play safe in terms of stock picking as there will be tremendous temptations
with "tips" and "circuit hitters" in abundance. We have recommended Tata Motors,
Infosys, Indo Count Industries and Granules as four stocks to watch out for. Our
Midcap recommended Portfolio has returned 40% in a year and is an ideal investment
option for passive investors.
Thought for the month
Ravi Shenoy
Vice President
1
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On This Page
MOSt
Advisor
Monthly Markets Newsletter
Equity Market Outlook
Markets & Our Recommendations
December 2015
Equity Market Outlook
Technical Outlook
√
Nifty ended the month of November with a loss of 130 points. The month
started with a sharp correction but managed to find temporary support
around the expected level of 7700 and witnessed a slight recovery
√
Currently Nifty is placed at the mid-point of the pattern of channel which
does not provide any favorable reward to risk for a new trade. Channel
support is placed at 7450-7400 but fresh trades can only be taken on a
pullback. Momentum indicator suggests some more pullback (i.e. above
8100) can make the setup lucrative for a fresh shorts with a stop above
8250. Nifty's medium term trend is expected to remain weak with the fact
of it being Deteriorating in the Global Equity Rotation chart. MSCI Emerg-
ing market Index as a whole supports the fact that dark clouds are looming
√
In Sectors, two independent studies based on Statistical analysis and De-
rivative OI suggests that Energy and Auto are the two sectors with ex-
pected out-performance in the near term. Whereas, IT, Pharma and Media
has started to deteriorate and positions can be shifted from these. Capital
Goods continues to trend down. Metals & Realty are witnessing relative
momentum but due to the fact of weak longer term trends confidence to
participate long remains low and shall be avoided. Bank remains neutral
with no major action ahead of the event lined up
Nifty RSI (Left Distribution)
Nifty - Channel
MSCI Emerging Market Index
Detailed report available on- http://ftp.motilaloswal.com/emailer/Marketdiary/QuantitativeMonthly/MOStQuantitativeOutlookMonthly-December2015.pdf
Sectoral Highlights
Sector
Energy
Auto
Services
Capital Goods
Note: #Technical view for 1 month perspective,
Our Views
Positive
Positive
Negative
Negative
Top Pick
HPCL
BOSCH
Just Dial
BHEL
Recommendation/CMP
Buy / 840
Buy / 18650
Sell / 940
Sell / 175
Data as on 30th November 2015
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Monthly Markets Newsletter
Derivatives Market Outlook,
Commodities Market Outlook
Markets & Our Recommendations
December 2015
Derivatives Market Outlook
√
Nifty futures rollovers were 3%+ higher than 3M average, but despite that we have seen reduction in open interest. This is due to partial short
covering in latter part of November series
√
Stock futures rolled almost at par with 3M average. In stock futures though open interest has gone up by ~9%. Peculiarity of the expiry gone
by is, there were fresh shorts in some sectors that over shadowed unwinding in many.
SECTORS OI
Nifty- Hedge via Put Butterfly
√
Short Covering (Neutral from Negative): Auto (Short Unwinding (Maruti, Tata
Motor)), FMCG (SC especially in Smaller stocks)
√
Shorts: Engineering (Shorts in BHEL, LT), IT (Shorts especially in Larger Cos), Met-
als, Pharma (DrReddy & Sun), Select Realty
√
Others: PSU Banks (Short Covering in larger names but smaller banks continue
shorts), Oil & Gas (Longs in OMCs, Short Covering in Reliance)
√
Neutral (Lack of OI change): Pvt. Banks, Telecom (ex-RCom), Media (Minor Long
Unwinding), Cement
Actionable
BUY 1 LOT 7900 PE
SELL 2 LOTS 7600 PE
BUY 1 LOT 7300 PE
√
√
√
Target Profit: 3000
Stop Loss: 1200
Although short covering has neutralized the bearish
bias, Nifty still remains in short-short covering cycle
Considering lack of longs and Heavy build up in calls as
near as 8000 strike advocates creation of hedge
Considering Long Expiry Put butterfly is recommended
to reduce premium out flow, keeping the losses limited
Commodities Market Outlook
Crude Oil
√
Oil witnessed yet another choppy trading month owing to conflicting drivers. While global oversupply and surging product inventories are
keeping prices depressed, concerns over slowdown in US output are supporting prices.
√
OPEC continues to keep its supply elevated. Iraq's exports also rebounded strongly in November after a drop in October. Exports from the
southern terminals have averaged 3.37 million this month, close to a record.
√
OECD commercial inventories stand at a record 3 billion barrels while product stocks at Europe's Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp(ARA) hub
remain near record highs. U.S. oil inventories are near 488.2 million barrels, close to the record 490.9 million barrels seen in April.
√
Demand outlook looks cloudy as both the World bank and the IMF downgraded global growth forecast for this year. Global oil demand
growth is forecast to slow to 1.2 mbpd in 2016 after surging to a five-year high of 1.8 mbpd in 2015.
√
Fresh evidence of slowdown in US production has prevented WTI oil prices from dipping below $40. US production is hovering near 9.1
million bpd, down nearly 0.5 million bpd from the levels at the start of July.
√
Broadly, the short term outlook remains mixed but the OPEC meeting this month could be pivotal. While, the possibility of OPEC throwing up
a surprise is very low, oil prices could swing on verbal interventions. This is because the market is excessively short at this moment and any
bullish comments could squeeze these positions and push prices sharply higher in the near term.
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
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MOSt
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Monthly Markets Newsletter
Large Cap Investment Ideas,
Mid Cap Investment Ideas
Must Act
December 2015
Large Cap Investment Ideas
√
Tata Motors is India’s largest CV player with 55% share in MHCV and 37% in LCVs.
Market & Our Recommendation
√
JLR's transitory issues are expected to recede from 3QFY16
√
Despite growth normalizing in luxury cars, China is expected to outperform other key
markets with 8-10% CAGR growth.
√
Earnings downgrade cycle is nearing end, as transitory issues recede. Valuations are
Tata Motors
CMP*:
Target:
INR423
INR471
BUY
attractive, despite normalizing China margins.
√
We maintain a BUY with a Target Price of INR471.
√
Infosys is the second-largest IT services company in India with revenue of ~USD8.6b and
Infosys
CMP*:
Target:
INR1088
INR1250
employing over 169,600 people.
√
The company's downgrade of earnings guidance for FY16 in the 2nd quarter results was
to factor in changes in cross-currency relationships and a headwinds in select customer
businesses.
BUY
√
However, given the good performance in the last 2 quarters and expectations of a gradual
improvement in performance, valuations should see an uptick.
√
We recommend to BUY for a target of INR. 1250.
Mid Cap Investment Ideas
√
Indo Count boasts of marquee global clients like Walmart, JC Penney and Bed Bath &
Beyond. Currently, 85% of ICIL's revenue comes from exports (70% to the US).
Indo Count Industries
CMP*:
Target:
INR1020
INR1300
√
The Company has expanded from bed sheet focus to fashion bedding, utility bedding
and institutional bedding, graduated from 'made to stock' to 'made to order'.
√
Expansion from 68m mtr to 90m mtr by Dec’16, at a cost of INR1.75b.
√
We expect a 24% and 44% revenue and PAT CAGR over FY15-17 along with significant
BUY
improvement in returns ratios (RoCE to improve from 39% to 53% over FY15-17).
√
We recommend to Buy for a target price of INR1,300.
√
Granules is moving up the value chain by shifting away from APIs towards formulations.
√
The share of formulations should move up from 1/3rd to 2/3rd over the next 5 years and
drive EBITDA higher by 520bp to 23% by FY20E enabling a over 30% CAGR in profits.
√
We expect ROCE of base business to move up from 26% to 36% over the same period.
√
We recommend to BUY with a upgraded price target of INR185.
Granules
CMP*:
Target:
INR160
INR185
BUY
Data as on 30th November 2015
4
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
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MOSt
Advisor
Monthly Markets Newsletter
MOSt Value - Model Portfolio for Investors
For Whom :
Investment Duration :
Risk Profile :
Scrip
MBP
Long Term Investors
Few months to a year
Defensive Investors
Wtg. Sectoral Allocation
10
10
10
10
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
5
5
5
5
5
5
100
MOSt Value, MOSt Velocity, MOSt Mid-Cap
Build a Portfolio
December 2015
MOSt Velocity 10 - Model Portfolio for Positional Traders
For Whom :
Investment Duration :
Risk Profile :
Scrip
Dish TV
United Spirits
ICICI Bank
Sun Pharma
HDFC Bank
SBIN
Tata Motors
UltraTech Cement
Glenmark Pharma
Hero MotoCorp
TVS Motor
Cash
Total
Medium Term Investors
Few months horizon
Moderate Investors
Wtg. Sectoral Allocation
10.0
10.0
7.5
7.5
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
25
100
MBP
108
3117
275
730
1078
250
423
2801
981
2699
307
Ultra Tech
2801
United Spirits
3117
SBI
250
ICICI Bank
275
Asian Paints
839
Tata Motors
423
HPCL
840
Coal India
331
Yes Bank
768
Sun Pharma
730
HDFC
1211
Jubilant Foodworks 1543
Shriram Transport
874
Cadila Healthcare Ltd 401
Total
What’s In
-
-
What’s Out
Returns
Portfolio
BSE 200
3mth
5.7%
2.2%
6mth
6.2%
12mth
11.6%
-1.0% -4.1%
MOSt Mid Cap- Model Portfolio for Aggressive Investors
For Whom :
Investment Duration :
Risk Profile :
Scrip
MBP
Long Term Investors
Few months to a year
Aggressive Investors
Wtg. Sectoral Allocation
12.1
10.7
10.1
9.9
9.7
9.7
9.6
9.1
8.8
7.6
2.7
100
TVS Motors
307
Indocount Industries 1020
Bajaj Finance
5515
Berger Paints
220
Eveready Industries 285
Repco Home Finance 726
Dish TV
108
Suprajit Engineering 139
Finolex cables
255
Engineers India
218
Cash
Total
Returns
Portfolio
Sensex
BSE midcap
3mth
6%
-1%
2%
6mth
8%
-6%
3%
What’s In
--
What’s Out
--
12mth
40%
-9%
11%
2yrs
151%
26%
67%
3yrs
124%
35%
67%
Since
Inception*
281%
46%
68%
* July 2010
Data as on 30th November2015
Returns are before expenses and taxes and excluding dividends
5
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
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Advisor
Monthly Markets Newsletter
MOSt PMS, MOSt Mutual - Model Portfolio
Managed Funds
December 2015
MOSt PMS
Value Strategy
√
Value Strategy: - The Strategy aims to benefit from the Long term compounding effect on
investments done in good businesses, run by great business managers for superior wealth
creation.
√
Value Strategy has the investment style of buying Undervalued stock & Sell overvalued
stocks, irrespective of Index Movements.
√
Money multiplied by 19.46 times in just 12 years.
√
INR1 Cr invested in Value PMS in March 2003 is worth Rs. 19.46 Crs vs. 7.85 Crs in Nifty
50.
√
Since its inception, Value Strategy has delivered annualized returns of 26.35% vs. Nifty 50
returns of 17.62%, an outperformance of 8.73% (CAGR).
Top Holdings in Value Strategy
Scrips
Sun Pharmaceuticals
Eicher Motors
Bosch
HDFC Bank
Bharat Petroleum Corpn.
% Holdings
9.69
9.48
8.24
7.98
7.20
Sector Allocation
Auto & Auto Ancillaries
Banking & Finance
Pharmaceuticals
Oil and Gas
Airlines
% Holdings
27.34
25.98
9.69
7.20
6.60
Data as on 30th November 2015
NTDOP Strategy
√
NTDOP Strategy: The strategy aims to deliver superior returns by investing in focused themes
which are part of the next Trillion Dollar GDP growth opportunity. It aims to predominantly
invest in Mid Cap stocks with a focus on Identifying Emerging Stocks/Sectors.
√
The strategy aims to capitalize on the themes of Consumerism, Banking & Financial Services
& Infrastructure in the Indian Economy.
√
Since its inception, NTDOP Strategy has delivered 17.59% annualized returns vs. 5.76% of
Nifty Midcap 100, delivering an annualized alpha of 11.83%.
Top Holdings in NTDOP Strategy
Scrips
% Holdings
Eicher Motors
15.71
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation 11.74
Bajaj Finance
11.41
Page Industries
8.83
Bosch
6.71
Sector Allocation
Banking & Finance
Auto & Auto Ancillaries
FMCG
Oil and Gas
Diversified
% Holdings
28.15
23.08
17.62
11.74
6.30
Data as on 30th November 2015
All the above figures are of a model client. Returns shown above are calculated on NAV method "Returns shown above are
post fees & expenses". Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.
MOSt Mutual - Model Portfolio
AGGRESSIVE - High Risk
Scheme Name
UTI Mid Cap Fund
MOSt Focused Midcap 30 Fund
Return %
Type
1yr
3yrs Wtg%
31.85
-
34.82
19.65
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
100
EQ 9.32
EQ 20.51
DEFENSIVE - Low Risk
Scheme Name
Birla SL Short Term Fund(G)
SBI BlueChip Fund
UTI Money Market Fund
HDFC Balanced Fund
SBI Dynamic Bond
Total
Return %
Type
D
EQ
D
HD
D
1yr
8.95
6.6
8.43
4.32
7.97
3yrs Wtg%
9.44
19.99
8.9
20.12
7.93
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
100
DSPBR Micro-Cap Fund-Reg
EQ 22.81
Tata Balanced Fund
HD 7.54
HDFC Mid-Cap Opport. Fund(G) EQ7.96 27.81
Total
G: Growth , EQ: Equity, HE: Hybrid-Equity, HD: Hybrid-Debt D: Debt, F: Fund, EA: Equity-Arbitrage, ST- Short Term, HA: Hybrid- Arbitrage
Data as on 30th November 2015
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Monthly Markets Newsletter
Game Changer
Investment Solutions
Client Portal
December 2015
7
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
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Regd Office: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; CIN no.: U65990MH1994PLC079418; Tel No.: 022 3980 4263; www.motilaloswal.com
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