MOSt
Advisor
Monthly Markets Newsletter
May 2016
In This Issue
•
Market Outlook for the month
• Equity Market Outlook
• Derivatives & Commodities Market Outlook
• Large Cap and Mid Cap Investment Ideas
• Model Advisory Portfolios
• Recommended Funds
• SIP
Key Highlights for the Month
Global events cause nervousness:
Earnings and IPOs
Will May bring the great summer sale?
Dear Investor,
Market performance:
After sharp gains in March, April
was a slow month with only 1% gains for the Sensex that
does not reflect the near 8% volatility in front-line indices.
Action was stock specific with violent sector rotation
Global events cause nervousness:
Global central banks
Global Market
Index
30-April-16
MoM (%)
YoY(%)
have kept rates weak but Japan disappointed by not
expanding the QE as expected. US Fed kept rates unchanged and it is possible that
the next rate change will be in June. Brexit influenced currencies and lobbying was
strong on both sides. Of all these global events, the Japanese Central Bank action
had the most impact on global equities causing what could be start of a drop in
risk taking appetite.
4Q earnings and IPOs:
4Q earnings had its set of surprises and misses - UPL, Shriram
Transport, Exide and M&M fin surprising on the positive side. Private Banks focussed
on retail continue to do well as did NBFC's. Lenders to the industry continue to be
troubled by NPAs, stressed assets and provisions. IT, with the exception of Infosys,
did not excite investors. Cement did better than expectations and saw momentum
continue with price hikes adding to the excitement. IPOs continued to meet success,
with large oversubscription for the small niche IPOs that we have seen to date. The
government disinvestment program and large IPOs from Insurance and Telecom space
hold potential to take money away from secondary markets in FY17, but will bring
fresh options for investors to look at.
Outlook:
Global events and cues could continue to drive markets in the near-term
with this correction to be taken as a "SALE" in equities. Earnings are likely to be
unexciting, but could provide opportunities for investors and traders alike. IPOs will
bring fresh investment options for investors, but have potential to take away money
from the markets. The rain gods need to be benevolent on markets for further upsides.
Cash flows should be deployed into potential winners and "Quality" names on any
weakness.
Sensex
Nifty
FTSE
Dow
Nasdaq
Hang Sang
25,607
7,850
6,242
17,774
4,775
21,067
1.0
1.4
1.1
0.5
-2.0
1.4
-5.2
-4.1
-10.3
-0.4
-3.4
-25.1
Economic Pulse
Key Indicators Current Month
Change (%)
IIP
WPI
10 Year Yield
USD/ INR
Crude ($)
Gold (10 gms)
2.0%
-0.85%
7.43%
66.33
48.1
29918
-
-
-0.40
0.14
21.5
4.8
Thought for the month
Ravi Shenoy
Vice President
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Monthly Markets Newsletter
Equity Market Outlook
Markets & Our Recommendations
May 2016
Equity Market Outlook
Technical Outlook
√
Nifty ended the roller coaster month of April on a positive note with an
addition of 111 points to its tally as it gained by 1.44% MoM. The month
started on a negative note as Nifty witnessed a pullback towards 7500 &
regained its strength to clear the critical resistance near 7750 with a ' Run
Away Gap'.
√
Relative rotation study of the global markets saw Nifty inching towards the
advancing zone. A confirmatory close in the zone would indicate an ex-
tended move on the absolute scale. Emerging markets index continues to
exhibit strength & a breach above 870 from hereon would propel the index
towards the upper end of the oscillating range. On the absolute price of
Nifty, multiple 'Doji' formations on the weekly scale near the breakout
zone dilute the essence of the yearlong breach & only a sustained move
8000 would reinstate momentum.
√
Nifty is yet to witness any exhaustion of the ongoing bullish trend. The
sequence of gaps would be complete once an 'Exhaustion Gap' is wit-
nessed on the daily scale. With the momentum oscillator yet to see an
overbought situation the odds remain in favour of the bulls. Immediate
support is now placed below the 'Run Away Gap' at 7680 which serves as
a trail stop for longs.
Cyclicals continue to dominate the trend as Realty, Metals registered a
mammoth gain upto 12% & 7% respectively. Banks & Infra continued
their upticks while the rotation study still affirms further outperformance.
On the other hand Pharma & Media continue to display weakness & re-
main in the deteriorating zone. While defensives like FMCG, IT & Services
await in the neutral zone for directional confirmation.
Global Equity Rotation
Nifty weekly
Nifty Daily
√
Detailed report available on- http://ftp.motilaloswal.com/emailer/Marketdiary/QuantitativeMonthly/MOStQuantitativeOutlookMonthly-May2016.pdf
Sectoral Highlights
Sector
Infra
FMCG
Energy
Pharma
Note: #Technical view for 1 month perspective,
Our Views
Positive
Neutral
Neutral
Negative
Top Pick
Engineers India
Dabur
Petronet LNG
Divislab
Recommendation/CMP
Buy / 179
Buy / 296
Buy / 267
Sell / 1056
Data as on 30th April 2016
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Monthly Markets Newsletter
Derivatives Market Outlook,
Commodities Market Outlook
Markets & Our Recommendations
May 2016
Derivatives Market Outlook
√
Stock futures roll stands at 83% higher than 3 month average of 80%. Major sectors saw incremental change in open interest mainly on
account of longs created and rolled over from past expiry saw further upbeat.
SECTORS OI
Nifty- Long Condor
Actionable
Among sectors Power, Fmcg, Oil&Gas and Auto saw biggest increment participation on long
side. Auto and Metal saw above average rollover
√
Auto: Mainly led by Long built-up in Tatamotors and Bajaj Auto.
√
Banks: PSU-PVT banks- Longs were seen in Yesbank, Indusindbk & Axisbank
√
Metal: Outperformance in steel and Aluminum except short built-up in NMDC and Hindzinc
√
Oil & Gas: Longs in OMC stocks. Accumulation in Gas based stocks like IGL, Gail, Petronet.
Shorts in Cairn and Reliance
√
IT: Shorts in Hexaware and Wipro. Accumulation in Infy and HCLtech
√
Pharma: Long in Biocon and Ajantpharma. Accumulation in Star and Sunpharma
Buy 1 lot May 7900 CE,
Sell 1 lot May 8100 CE
Sell 1 lot May 8200 CE
Buy 1 lot May 8400 CE
√
√
√
√
Nifty option data suggest 8000 as call barrier.
Unwinding in calls would trigger fresh momentum to-
wards 8200 whereas accumulation in Puts indicates
strong support at 7700
Outer band of Nifty is placed at 7500-8300.
Considering sideways movement in India Vix, Low risk
hedge strategy is recommended
Target Profit: 11300
Stop Loss: 3600
Commodities Market Outlook
√
Oil prices extended gains for a second consecutive month as speculators continue to buy on hopes that U.S. oil output will continue to decline
and lead to global oil markets coming to balance next year.
√
Total U.S. crude oil production has dropped by 84,000 bpd in the last four weeks to 8.94 million bpd, the lowest since October 2014. Shale
output has been declining for almost one year and is expected to fall to 4.8 million bpd in May from a peak of 5.5 million bpd in March 2015
√
The recent rally also was supported by the outages in Kuwait, Nigeria and Libya. The electricity troubles in Venezuela are also likely to cut
output by nearly 150,000 bpd this year.
√
Physical fundamentals however still remain bearish as failure of the Doha deal will renew the fight for market share. OPEC has already started
increasing output. OPEC production in April touched a record to 33.21 mbpd. Adding to that Iran is expected to add another 0.2mbpd of
exports in May due to recent signed agreements and Saudi is preparing to increase production by 0.5 mbpd for the summer season.
√
On the inventory side, U.S crude oil inventories are at a record 540 million barrels while product stocks at Europe's Amsterdam-Rotterdam-
Antwerp(ARA) hub remain near multi-year highs. The inventory overhang is also a risk to price from here.
In terms of outlook, even as oil prices seem to have established a near term bottom, the extent and pace of the recent rally coupled with
extreme speculative positioning makes us doubt the sustainability of the rally. We remain cautious about fresh longs from here and believe that
a correction is on the cards.
Crude Oil
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Monthly Markets Newsletter
Large Cap Investment Ideas,
Mid Cap Investment Ideas
Must Act
May 2016
Large Cap Investment Ideas
√
IndusInd Bank is one of the ten new private sector banks which were awarded license in
1994.
√
The bank has pan-India presence with 1000 branches as on March 31, 2016. Strong
core profitability (2.8%+ of average assets vs private banks average of 2.5% and HDFCB
of 2.7%), improving CASA ratio (best amongst mid-sized private banks), healthy return
IndusInd Bank
CMP*:
Target:
INR 1049
INR 1200
BUY
ratios (ROA of 2%+ and ROE of 17-18% and capitalization (CET1 ratio of 15%+) are
key positives.
√
Overall, we model in EPS growth of 29% CAGR over FY16-19.
√
Amara Raja Batterries has become India's second-largest lead-acid battery manufacturer
Amara Raja Batterries
CMP*:
Target:
INR 956
INR 1052
(next to market leader EXIDE), with market leadership in telecom and UPS segments.
√
It is reckoned as one of the pioneers in VRLA (valve regulated lead acid) batteries. Johnson
Control USA is an equal partner and acquired 26% equity in 1997. Company aims to
increase its share in the OEM and replacement segments to 40% and 30% respectively
over the medium term. FY16 is inflection year for AMRJ-with new capacities driving top-
line (~18% CAGR over FY16-18E) and benign lead prices driving margins (+110bp by
FY18), translating into ~27% EPS CAGR (FY16-18E) after muted FY15.
BUY
Mid Cap Investment Ideas
√
GRUH Finance (Gujarat Rural Housing Finance Ltd) was promoted by HDFC and Aga
Khan Fund for Economic Development (AKFED). It provides home loans to individuals
and families in the lower-income group in rural and semi-urban areas.
√
Gruh has diversified geographically and operates in eight Indian states through 171
branches and has loan book of nearly INR10000cr. It has delivered 26% loan book CAGR
and 27% PAT CAGR during the last decade.
√
We continue to expect strong growth in this space
Gruh Finance
CMP*:
Target:
INR 257
INR 292
BUY
√
Oberoi Realty Limited is a Mumbai-based real estate developer with primary focus on
developing residential property. The company has diversified into retail, commercial, hos-
pitality and social infrastructure projects.
√
Oberoi Realty has delivered ~5msf of RE development across 35 projects so far. Its Octo-
ber 2015 launch of Oberoi Sky City (Borivali) met with huge response.
√
We recommend this stock as a play on Mumbai's real estate play
Oberoi Realty Limited
CMP*:
Target:
INR 280
INR 345
BUY
Data as on 30th April 2016
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Monthly Markets Newsletter
MOSt Multi Cap - Model Portfolio for Investors
For Whom :
Investment Duration :
Risk Profile :
Scrip
Ultratech Cement
BPCL
Bajaj Finance
Hero Motocorp
Zee Entertainment
HDFC
TVS Motor
Indo Count Ind.
SRF Ltd
PVR Ltd
P I Industries Ltd
Can Fin Homes Ltd
Eveready Ind
Engineers India Ltd.
Cash
Total
MOSt Value, MOSt Velocity, MOSt Mid-Cap
Build a Portfolio
May 2016
Long Term Investors
Few months to a year
Moderate Investors
Wtg. Sectoral Allocation
12.1
11.2
11.1
11.1
10.1
9.4
4.1
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
3.4
3.1
2.3
2.1
100
We are recommending a MULTI-CAP approach instead of a MIDCAP
approach. The Multi-cap INVESTMENT portfolio will have the
following characteristics:
√
Portfolio requirement to INR 10 Lakhs
√
60% Large-caps and up to 40% in our MIDCAPs portfolio
√
15 companies to invest in at the maximum, 10 minimum
√
5 Large-caps that are suitable for SIP investments also
√
1 Semi Large-cap from our MIDCAP portfolio
√
10 stocks in the MICAPS space
MBP
3161
978
6829
2897
415
1088
320
1049
1365
843
642
1202
253
179
What’s In What’s Out
Zee Ent.
SRF Ltd
PVR Ltd
Can Fin Homes
Berger Paints
Finolex Cables
Repco Home
Finance
√
Adheres to our QGLP philosophy
Suprajit Engineering 140
MOSt Velocity 10 - Model Portfolio for Positional Traders
For Whom :
Investment Duration :
Risk Profile :
Scrip
SBIN
ICICIBANK
HDFC
ULTRACEMCO
LT
VOLTAS
SINTEX
EMAMILTD
AMARAJABAT
MARUTI
Cash
Total
MOSt Mid Cap- Model Portfolio for Aggressive Investors
For Whom :
Investment Duration :
Risk Profile :
Scrip
TVS Motors
SRF
PVR
Can Fin Homes
PI Industries
Bajaj Finance
Medium Term Investors
Few months horizon
Moderate Investors
Wtg. Sectoral Allocation
5
7.5
5
5
10
5
5
10
5
5
37.5
100
Long Term Investors
Few months to a year
Aggressive Investors
MBP
320
1365
843
1202
642
6829
253
179
MBP
189
237
1088
3161
1255
294
83
1007
956
3795
Wtg. Sectoral Allocation
11.1
10.9
10.9
10.9
10.8
10.8
10.6
9.1
8.5
6.1
0.5
100
Data as on 30th April 2016
Indocount Industries 1049
Returns
3mth
6mth
12mth
Suprajit Engineering 141
Eveready Industries
Engineers India
Cash
Total
What’s In
SRF
PVR
Can Fin Homes
What’s Out
Berger Paints
Finolex cables
Repco Home
Portfolio 4.9%
BSE 200
5.0%
-2.9% 3.6%
-2.7% -3.4%
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MOSt PMS, MOSt Mutual - Model Portfolio
Managed Funds
May 2016
MOSt PMS
Value Strategy
√
The Strategy aims to benefit from the Long term compounding effect on investments done
in good businesses, run by great business managers for superior wealth creation.
√
Value Strategy has the investment style of buying Undervalued stock & Sell overvalued
stocks, irrespective of Index Movements.
√
Money multiplied by 19.70 times in just 12 years.
√
INR1 Cr invested in Value PMS in March 2003 is worth INR19.70 Crs vs.7.76Crs in Nifty 50.
√
Since its inception, Value Strategy has delivered annualized returns of 25.54% vs. Nifty 50
returns of 16.92%, an outperformance of 8.62% (CAGR)
Top Holdings in Value Strategy
Scrips
Eicher Motors Ltd.
Sun Pharmaceuticals Ltd.
Bosch Ltd.
HDFC Bank Ltd.
Bharat Petroleum Corpn. Ltd
% Holdings
11.21
10.77
8.65
8.28
7.62
Sector Allocation
Auto & Auto Ancillaries
Banking & Finance
Pharmaceuticals
Oil and Gas
FMCG
% Holdings
29.37
24.09
10.77
7.62
6.61
NTDOP Strategy
√
The strategy aims to deliver superior returns by investing in focused themes which are part
of the next Trillion Dollar GDP growth opportunity. It aims to predominantly invest in Mid
Cap stocks with a focus on Identifying Emerging Stocks/Sectors.
√
The strategy aims to capitalize on the themes of Consumerism, Banking & Financial Services
& Infrastructure in the Indian Economy.
√
Since its inception, NTDOP Strategy has delivered 16.79% annualized returns vs. 5.42% of
Nifty Free Float Midcap 100, delivering an annualized alpha of 11.37%.
Top Holdings in NTDOP Strategy
Scrips
Bajaj Finance Ltd.
Eicher Motors Ltd.
HPCL
Page Industries Ltd.
Bosch Ltd.
% Holdings
14.01
12.31
11.55
8.34
7.02
Sector Allocation
Banking & Finance
Auto & Auto Ancillaries
FMCG
Oil and Gas
Diversified
% Holdings
30.46
21.85
17.05
11.55
6.36
India Opportunity Portfolio Strategy
√
The Strategy aims to generate long term capital appreciation by creating a focused portfolio
of high growth stocks having the potential to grow more than the nominal GDP for next 5-
7 years across market capitalization and which are available at reasonable market prices.
√
Since its inception, India Opportunity Portfolio Strategy has delivered 12.12% annualized
returns vs. 8.21% of BSE 200, delivering an annualized alpha of 3.91%.
Top Holdings in IOP Strategy
Scrips
Bajaj Finance Ltd.
HPCL
Eicher Motors Ltd.
Interglobe Aviation Ltd.
HDFC Bank Ltd.
% Holdings
12.56
10.42
9.41
9.37
6.66
Sector Allocation
Banking & Finance
Auto & Auto Ancillaries
Pharmaceuticals
Oil and Gas
Airlines
% Holdings
29.24
17.07
14.96
11.39
7.39
Data as on 30th April 2016
All the above figures are of a model client. Returns shown above are calculated on NAV method "Returns shown above are
post fees & expenses". Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.
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Investment Product
SIP
May 2016
7
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