MOSt
Advisor
Monthly Markets Newsletter
June 2016
In This Issue
•
Market Outlook for the month
• Equity Market Outlook
• Derivatives & Commodities Market Outlook
• Large Cap and Mid Cap Investment Ideas
• Model Advisory Portfolios
• Recommended Funds
• Debt Mutual Fund
Key Highlights for the Month
Central Bankers & BREXIT
Currency wars, nervousness in INR
Monsoons - will it bring relief?
Dear Investor,
Market performance:
"Sell in May and go away" proved
wrong in May'16 with a ~4% return for frontline indices
aided by movements in Pivotals in Infrastructure, Auto-
mobiles and Banking.
Global Market
Index
31-May-16
MoM (%)
YoY(%)
4Q better than estimates:
Except PSU Banks, which
cleaned up books further, we have seen NIFTY profits rise
nearly 9% (~6% MOSL estimate) justifying the market upmove in May. Excluding
PSUs and OMCs, earnings rose by ~8% for our Institutional coverage universe.
Central Bankers Ahoy:
June will have the ECB, Fed and the RBI governors decide
on and discuss future directions of rates. While expectations of a rate action by RBI
seem low, the governor's continuation is a bigger debate and aspect for the markets.
Expectations of a Fed rate hike have built-up post release of minutes for the last
meeting as well as Fed Chairman speech. This has implications for global bond and
currency markets, as well as a globalized equity market as does a BREXIT for which
the citizens of our Historical Rulers\Invaders go to vote this month.
Currency wars:
China has "adjusted" value of yuan over last 2 weeks to raise export
competitiveness. This can lead to a currency war aided by ammunition from Central
Bankers. Volatility in the INR on any currency war can be unnerving for investors
Monsoon relief:
Monsoons may bring relief from the heat and provide fuel to the
current rally in equities. More importantly a good monsoon in terms of quantum
as well as spatial distribution holds the key to a good agri-production and hence
controlled inflation and better rural demand.
Outlook:
With the "Sale" behind us and earnings showing signs of picking up, markets
seem headed for a new high in FY17. The required conditions for this would be a
good monsoon, No BREXIT-type events, stable currency and a less than 50bps hike
by the Fed in this period. Cyclicals posted good earnings and could come back to
the fore. A sharp move is usually followed by speed breakers and it would be healthy
to take a breather to avoid accidents especially given events this month on the
domestic and international front.
Sensex
Nifty
FTSE
Dow
Nasdaq
Hang Sang
26,668
8,160
6,231
17,787
4,948
20,815
4.1
3.9
-0.2
0.1
3.6
-1.2
-4.2
-3.2
-10.8
-1.2
-2.4
-24.1
Economic Pulse
Key Indicators Current Month
Change (%)
IIP
WPI
10 Year Yield
USD/ INR
Crude ($)
Gold (10 gms)
0.1%
0.34%
7.47%
67.26
49.69
28615
-
-
0.54
1.40
3.3
-4.4
Thought for the month
Ravi Shenoy
Vice President
1
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On This Page
MOSt
Advisor
Monthly Markets Newsletter
Equity Market Outlook
Markets & Our Recommendations
June 2016
Equity Market Outlook
Technical Outlook
√
Last month was good for Indian equities. The bench mark index Nifty
notched up 3.95% MoM. Last week saw FII's in buying spree be it cash or
futures segment of market
√
Globally asset classes are still gyrating in range but is on verge of next big
move be it equities, commodities, bonds or realty. Recent economic data
of US suggest the big elephant is moving well and in desired direction of
economic growth albeit a bit slow. Fed Chairwoman Ms. 'Jenet Yellen'
while addressing at Harvard awards ceremony last Friday clearly spelt out
further interest rate hikes in coming months. This will have hot money
flowing out from US Bonds. Most likley this outflow will find its way into
equities
√
On the relative rotation study Nifty continues to advance & is in line with
the absolute price movement. Hence pullbacks if any could be short lived
as we expect nifty to continue its outperformance & extend its gains. The
year long channel was finally breached during the month & the pattern
indicates a price target up to 8700 which stands valid until nifty stays
above 7500. Nifty commenced its strong run from 6826 with a 'Break
Away Gap' at 7222 & is yet to witness an 'Exhaustion Gap' which would
complete the sequence. Though the broader trend remains bullish an inter-
mediate correction cannot be ruled out at this juncture
√
On Sectoral front buying traction is likely to be seen in Automobiles,
Financials, Private Banks, FMCG and Infra stocks selectively. While pharma
is expected to continue its underperformance
Nifty Daily
Global Equity Rotation
Nifty Weekly
Detailed report available on- http://ftp.motilaloswal.com/emailer/Marketdiary/QuantitativeMonthly/MOStQuantitativeOutlookMonthly-June2016.pdf
Sectoral Highlights
Sector
Auto
Mid Cap
FMCG
Pharma
Note: #Technical view for 1 month perspective,
Our Views
Positive
Positive
Neutral
Negative
Top Pick
Bajaj Auto
PI Ind.
Emami Ltd
Cadila
Recommendation/CMP
Buy / 2618
Buy / 676
Buy / 1024
Sell / 336
Data as on 30th April 2016
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Monthly Markets Newsletter
Derivatives Market Outlook,
Commodities Market Outlook
Markets & Our Recommendations
June 2016
Derivatives Market Outlook
√
Stock future OI was tad above 3 month average of 81 % at 83.5%. Major sectors witnessed incremental change in open interest E-o-E.
Accumulation in Open interest along with positive roll was evident in sectors like Oil&Gas, Pharma, Infra, FMCG and Telecom. IT, Pharma
and Oil&Gas witnessed accumulation in OI with insignificant price movement.
Nifty- Call Butterfly Spread
SECTORS OI
Short Covering
Long
Long Unwinding
Short
Actionable
Buy Jun 8200 CE 1 Lot,
Sell Jun 8400 CE 2 Lots
Buy Jun 8600 CE 1 Lot
√
Engineering: Long Built-up along with long Roll (Long built-up in Voltas, LT and Havells)
√
FMCG: Mainly Long built-up in Asianpaint and ITC; Short covering in Pidilitind
√
√
Pvt Banks: Mainly short covering in Axisbank, ICICIbank and Indusindbk except Long in
√
Hdfcbank & Kotakbank
√
√
Auto: Accumulation in Bajaj-auto & M&M; Short covering in Maruti & Heromotoco.
√
Metals: Mainly unwinding except short covering in Vedl
√
IT: Mix activity. Short covering in Infy and Tcs; Short in Hexaware and Hcltech and Long in
√
Techm
Nifty witnessed strong roll-over to June series
Option data suggest incremental addition in 7900 and
8000 Puts
Option indicative band stays at 8000-8400.Unwinding
in OTM Calls in June series would augur directional move
on higher side
Considering long expiry and positive outlook, Call But-
terfly spread is recommended
Commodities Market Outlook
Gold
Target Profit: 11700
Stop Loss: 3300
√
Gold witnessed one of its biggest monthly losses since November 2015 as U.S rate hike expectations increased amid positive set of U.S. data
√
The Fed signalled a relatively hawkish stance as the FOMC minutes from April suggested that if incoming data were consistent with economic
growth picking up in Q2 , then it would be appropriate to increase the federal funds rate in June which led markets to start re-pricing odds of
a Fed rate hike in the near term. Fed rate hike odds in July are now at 60%.
√
U.S. data in Q1 was largely mixed but the start of Q2 has been encouraging. Data ranging from housing to retail sales to personal spending has
beat expectations. The Atlanta Fed's GDP forecast for Q2 GDP growth is at 2.9% which will alleviate some of the slowdown concerns from Q1.
√
Inflation in the U.S. is showing signs of pick up as U.S. Core CPI rose 2.1% y/y. The recent strong rebound in prices of oil and other industrial
commodities is likely to turn more Fed members hawkish as there is a risk that inflation quickly starts moving closer to Fed's target
√
On demand side, SPDR ETF holdings saw a inflows of nearly 65 tons in May after a small outflow in April. Cumulative YTD inflows in SPDR
have totalled 225 tons. Indian demand meanwhile still remains weak and India's April gold imports fell 60.5% to $1.24 billion. India's
domestic prices still remain at a discount of $15 an ounce.
√
The medium term trend for gold remains positive but short term trend is likely to be lower as markets were significantly underpricing rate hike
chances before the Fed's April minutes were released. We therefore think that once the initial jitters are done with, gold will start to move
higher again in the medium term and continue its bull trend that started this year.
3
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Large Cap Investment Ideas,
Mid Cap Investment Ideas
Must Act
June 2016
Large Cap Investment Ideas
Hindalco
CMP*:
Target:
INR 105
INR 126
√
Novelis' EBITDA is on improving trajectory with tailwind of autos.
√
Hindalco is exiting loss making mining assets.
√
Capital Investment will fall sharply as company commissioned its 3 large projects in
1QFY16.
√
Net debt will decline as free cash flow rises and we have factored in lower cost of
production in our earnings upgrade.
BUY
√
We have raised the target price to INR126.
Ashok Leyland
CMP*:
Target:
INR 109
INR 124
√
Ashok Leyland has a ~33% market share and is the largest Bus manufacturer in India.
√
During the last two major CV cycles, MHCV clocked a CAGR of ~23% from the bottom
of the cycle to the top leading to margin expansion.
√
We have seen a continued shift away from rail to road on lower diesel prices and hence
lower freight rates.
BUY
√
Defence revenues are expected to pick-up from INR500cr in FY16 to INR2000cr in FY17
with contribution from 11 orders in FY16.
√
Our target price of Ashok Leyland is INR124.
Mid Cap Investment Ideas
√
Granules is moving up in the pharma value chain by shifting away from APIs and PFIs
towards formulations.
√
The share of formulations is expected to move up from 1/3rd to 2/3rd over the next five
years and drive a expect a 38% PAT CAGR over FY16-18E, driven by improving traction
in finished dosage formulations.
√
North America contributes more than 47% of sales and this contibution is expected to
rise sharply as current product filing pipeline gets translated into revenues.
√
We recommend to BUY for a target price of INR160 (16xFY18E).
√
PVR targets to open 60 new screens annually over the next two years, thus taking the total
count to ~650 along with DT Cinemas by FY18.
√
Movie screening is an underpenetrated business in India and we believe PVR will be the
biggest beneficiary of a revival in discretionary spends.
√
We expect PVR to record 19% revenue CAGR and 34% EBTDA CAGR over FY16-18.
√
We expect implementation of GST could act as a huge trigger and drive an expansion of
200-300bp.
√
We value PVR at 10x FY18E EV/EBITDA. Maintain Buy with a TP of INR968.
Data as on 31st May 2016
Granules India
CMP*:
Target:
INR 138
INR 160
BUY
PVR
CMP*:
Target:
INR 888
INR 968
BUY
4
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
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MOSt Multi Cap - Model Portfolio for Investors
For Whom :
Investment Duration :
Risk Profile :
Scrip
Ultratech Cement
Bajaj Finance
Hero Motocorp
BPCL
Zee Ent. Ltd
HDFC
PVR Ltd
P I Industries Ltd
Can Fin Homes Ltd
Suprajit Eng. Ltd
SRF Ltd
TVS Motor
Indo Count Ind Ltd
Eveready Ind. Ltd
Granules India Ltd
Cash
Total
MOSt Value, MOSt Velocity, MOSt Mid-Cap
Build a Portfolio
June 2016
Long Term Investors
Few months to a year
Moderate Investors
Wtg. Sectoral Allocation
11.9
11.9
11.4
10.8
10.4
10.2
4.1
4.0
3.9
3.7
3.7
3.5
3.5
2.8
2.3
1.9
100
We are recommending a MULTI-CAP approach instead of a MIDCAP
approach. The Multi-cap INVESTMENT portfolio will have the
following characteristics:
√
Portfolio requirement to INR 10 Lakhs
√
60% Large-caps and up to 40% in our MIDCAPs portfolio
√
15 companies to invest in at the maximum, 10 minimum
√
5 Large-caps that are suitable for SIP investments also
√
1 Semi Large-cap from our MIDCAP portfolio
√
10 stocks in the MICAPS space
MBP
3227
7589
3099
981
443
1238
884
676
1209
162
1297
285
942
237
138
What’s In What’s Out
Granules India
Engineers India
√
Adheres to our QGLP philosophy
MOSt Velocity 10 - Model Portfolio for Positional Traders
For Whom :
Investment Duration :
Risk Profile :
Scrip
SBIN
ICICI Bank
LT
Ultratech Cement
Amara Raja Batteries
Bharat Electronics
Cash
Total
MOSt Mid Cap- Model Portfolio for Aggressive Investors
For Whom :
Investment Duration :
Risk Profile :
Scrip
Bajaj Finance
PVR
PI Industries
Can Fin Homes
SRF
TVS Motors
Medium Term Investors
Few months horizon
Moderate Investors
Wtg. Sectoral Allocation
10
10
10
5
5
5
55
100\
Long Term Investors
Few months to a year
Aggressive Investors
MBP
884
676
MBP
205
245
1474
3227
840
1178
Wtg. Sectoral Allocation
11.40%
11.30%
10.40%
9.90%
9.70%
7.90%
6.40%
0.30%
100%
Data as on 31st May 2016
7589 11.60%
1209 10.90%
1297 10.30%
285
237
138
Suprajit Engineering 162
Returns
3mth
6mth
3.6%
12mth
5.5%
-2.4%
Indocount Industries 942
Eveready Industries
Granules India
Cash
Total
What’s In
Granules India
What’s Out
Engineers India
Portfolio 9.2%
BSE 200
11.1% 3.0%
5
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MOSt PMS, MOSt Mutual - Model Portfolio
Managed Funds
June 2016
MOSt PMS
Value Strategy
√
The Strategy aims to benefit from the Long term compounding effect on investments done
in good businesses, run by great business managers for superior wealth creation.
√
Value Strategy has the investment style of buying Undervalued stock & Sell overvalued
stocks, irrespective of Index Movements.
√
Money multiplied by 20.34 times in just 13 years.
√
INR1Cr invested in Value PMS in March 2003 is worth INR20.34 crs vs. 8.07 crs in Nifty 50.
√
Since its inception, Value Strategy has delivered annualized returns of 25.65% vs. Nifty 50
returns of 17.15%, an outperformance of 8.50% (CAGR).
Top Holdings in Value Strategy
Scrips
Eicher Motors Ltd.
Sun Pharmaceuticals Ltd.
Bosch Ltd.
HDFC Bank Ltd.
Bharat Petroleum Corpn. Ltd
% Holdings
10.02
9.81
9.52
8.38
7.40
Sector Allocation
Auto & Auto Ancillaries
Banking & Finance
Pharmaceuticals
Oil and Gas
FMCG
% Holdings
28.86
24.94
9.81
7.40
7.28
NTDOP Strategy
√
The strategy aims to deliver superior returns by investing in focused themes which are part
of the next Trillion Dollar GDP growth opportunity. It aims to predominantly invest in Mid
Cap stocks with a focus on Identifying Emerging Stocks/Sectors.
√
The strategy aims to capitalize on the themes of Consumerism, Banking & Financial Services
& Infrastructure in the Indian Economy.
√
Since its inception, NTDOP Strategy has delivered 17.14% annualized returns vs. 5.45% of
Nifty Midcap 100, delivering an annualized alpha of 11.69%.
Top Holdings in NTDOP Strategy
Scrips
Bajaj Finance Ltd.
HPCL
Eicher Motors Ltd.
Page Industries Ltd.
Bosch Ltd.
% Holdings
15.00
12.11
10.77
8.83
7.68
Sector Allocation
Banking & Finance
Auto & Auto Ancillaries
FMCG
Oil and Gas
Diversified
% Holdings
31.07
20.74
17.24
12.11
7.01
India Opportunity Portfolio Strategy
√
The Strategy aims to generate long term capital appreciation by creating a focused portfolio
of high growth stocks having the potential to grow more than the nominal GDP for next 5-
7 years across market capitalization and which are available at reasonable market prices.
√
Since its inception, India Opportunity Portfolio Strategy has delivered 12.65% annualized
returns vs. 8.70% of BSE 200, delivering an annualized alpha of 3.95%.
Top Holdings in IOP Strategy
Scrips
HPCL
Bajaj Finance Ltd.
Eicher Motors Ltd.
Interglobe Aviation Ltd.
HDFC Bank Ltd.
% Holdings
11.90
10.67
7.94
7.03
7.02
Sector Allocation
Banking & Finance
Auto & Auto Ancillaries
Pharmaceuticals
Oil and Gas
Airlines
% Holdings
27.53
15.87
14.16
11.90
7.03
Data as on 31st May 2016
All the above figures are of a model client. Returns shown above are calculated on NAV method "Returns shown above are
post fees & expenses". Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.
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 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
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Investment Product
Debt Mutual Fund
June 2016
Debt Mutual Fund
Attractive AAA Spreads w.r.t G-secs
√
AAA Corporate Bond exhibits rich carry due to the attractive spreads, thus making a case for locking in at such relatively high accruals.
√
We do not expect such high absolute yields to sustain for long due to improvement in system liquidity, incremental demand from FPIs, etc
√
At the current juncture, investment in good quality corporate bond and short term funds, may generate attractive tax efficient returns than
traditional investment options
Recommended Funds:
Accrual Funds:
Scheme
AUM
(in cr)
Absolute 1 Yr
8.05
Returns (%)
3 Yr
7.64
5 Yr
9.38
Since Inception
10.11
ICICI Prudential Income opportunity fund
Dynamic Bond Funds:
3207
Scheme
AUM
(in cr)
6159.56
995.72
Absolute 1 Yr
7.28
8.31
Returns (%)
3 Yr
5 Yr
7.59
9.11
9.86
9.85
Since Inception
8.22
9.44
IDFC Dynamic Bond Fund
UTI Dynamic Bond Fund
Mutual Fund Recommendation:
Scheme
AUM
(in cr)
Absolute 1 Yr
Returns (%)
3 Yr
5 Yr
Since Inception
Large Cap Funds
SBI BlueChip Fund
Birla SL Top 100 Fund(G)
Multi Cap Funds
MOSt Focused Multicap 35 Fund
Franklin India High Growth Cos Fund
3560
4349
8.34
-2.33
--
24.83
--
17.34
31.68
12.46
5624
1879
5.61
-0.31
19.04
16.88
15.15
13.67
10.82
14.57
7
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A graph of daily closing g prices of securities is available at www.nseindia.com and http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/stock-quotes.
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the
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investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors and firm revenues
Disclosure of Interest Statement
1.Analyst ownership of the stocks mentioned above
2.Served as an officer, director or employee
No
No
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