MOSt
Advisor
Monthly Markets Newsletter
August 2016
In This Issue
•
Market Outlook for the month
• Equity Market Outlook
• Derivatives & Commodities Market Outlook
• Large Cap and Mid Cap Investment Ideas
• Model Advisory Portfolios
• Recommended Funds
• Mutual Funds
Key Highlights for the Month
Monsoon
7th Pay Commission
1QFY17 Corporate Earnings update
Dear Investor,
Global & Domestic Events:
As we write the biggest event
doing the rounds is clearnace of much awaited GST
amendment bill By Rajya Sabha with all its clauses. A big
step in the right direction. Month of July was good for
Global Market
Index
31-July-16
MoM (%)
YoY(%)
equity and bonds as an asset class globally. US equities
made all-time highs and are trading near it now. However, corporate earnings of S&P
500 companies are heading for a fifth straight quarter of declines, dragged down
mostly by energy stocks which are struggles with low oil prices and a tepid global
economy. Global economy is struggling and is forecasted to expand 2.9 percent this
year, according to the average estimates of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That's
the lowest rate since 2009, with the U.S., European Union, China and Mexico all
expected to post slower growth this year from 2015. Concentrated liquidity push by
central bankers across the globe has kept the momentum up for equities so far.
Market Performance:
Positive developments be it Monsoons, passage of 7th pay
commission recommendations and so far in line 1QFY17 earnings reported by 77
companies from our coverage universe. MOSL universe has reported Sales, EBITDA
and PAT growth of 1.5%, 10% and 7.3%, respectively against expectations of 6.8%,
9.2% and 6.9%, respectively. Nifty PAT for the 26 companies which reported earnings
have grown 11.4% v/s expectation of 11.2%. Ex Financials, EBITDA margin stood
at 28-quarter high of 22.5% v/s estimate of 21.2% (up 160bp YoY). Nifty was up
+4.20% in July, being fifth straight monthly gain. NBFCs (+11%), Media (+11%),
Metals (+10%), Oil (+9%) and Autos (+7%) were the top performer sector's.
Outlook:
Indian equity offering stand on firm footing when compared to most of
its global counterparts. India's RoE remains superior to most EMs, an important
differentiator for valuation premium it commands over its peers. Rain Gods have
turned benevolent; GST Bill amendment bill passed, and 7th Pay Commission roll
out augurs well. All this will propel demand for low cost housing, two wheelers,
white goods, electrical & electronic consumer durables and home refurbishing. We
maintain our stance of a new high in FY17 and advocate to follow our QGLP
philosophy for deploying money into quality stocks.
Sensex
Nifty
FTSE
Dow
Nasdaq
Hang Sang
28,052
8,639
6,724
18,432
5,162
21,891
3.9
4.2
3.4
2.8
6.6
5.3
-0.2
1.2
0.4
4.2
0.7
-11.1
Economic Pulse
Key Indicators Current Month
Change (%)
IIP
WPI
10 Year Yield
USD/ INR
Crude ($)
Gold (10 gms)
1.8%
1.62%
7.17%
66.99
42.46
30939
-
105.06
-3.76
-0.78
-14.53
1.31
Thought for the month
Dharmesh Kant
Vice President- Head Of Retail Research
1
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Monthly Markets Newsletter
Equity Market Outlook
Markets & Our Recommendations
August 2016
Equity Market Outlook
Technical Outlook
√
Nifty added another 4.23% to its tally as it ended the month of July on a
strong note with a gain of 351 points. The month commenced on a posi-
tive note & witnessed a gradual upmove throughout the month.
√
On the global rotation study Nifty is the only advancing index on our
relative rotation study which has now entered the outperforming zone.
With its absolute price performance remaining constant the index is ex-
pected to witness outperformance in the coming months. Declining crude
price has been a boon for the emerging markets & its current reversion
from the upper end of the channel augurs well for the ongoing bearish-
ness to persist which could be a vital component for the next leg of mo-
mentum in the emerging markets economies. On the absolute chart of
Nifty the sequential trend remains firm as there are as no signs of weak-
ness on the weekly scale. Though it has entered a multiple resistance
trajectory, fresh breakout on the immediate scale with the ADX (20) quot-
ing above 21 raises the expectation of the ongoing uptrend to remain firm.
Only a breach below 8520 shall be considered as the first sign of loss in
bullish momentum & hence serves as a trail stop for fresh longs. Incase if
the said level is breached it could distort the ongoing sequential growth of
the bullish trend. Post which the index could witness an immediate move-
ment towards 8130 (Intermediate Support).
√
Amongst sectors cyclicals continue to have an upper hand while Auto
remains a consistent gainer for over months now. While FMCG & Infra
saw a movement from the neutral zone towards the outperforming zone
on our sector rotation study & could evolve with the market momentum.
Pharma & IT are still in the underperforming zone but saw a strong rever-
sion from their extremes & hence shorts shall be avoided.
Detailed report available on- http://ftp.motilaloswal.com/emailer/Marketdiary/QuantitativeMonthly/MOStQuantitativeOutlookMonthly-August2016.pdf
Global Equity Rotation
Nifty Weekly
Nifty Daily
Sectoral Highlights
Sector
Auto
FMCG
Mid-Cap
IT
Note: #Technical view for 1 month perspective,
Our Views
Positive
Positive
Positive
Neutral
Top Pick
M&M
Bata India
Escorts
TCS
Recommendation/CMP
Buy / 1466
Buy / 605
Buy / 263
Buy / 2619
Data as on 29th July 2016.
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Monthly Markets Newsletter
Derivatives Market Outlook,
Commodities Market Outlook
Markets & Our Recommendations
August 2016
Derivatives Market Outlook
√
July series witnessed stellar performance market wide. Nifty index was up by 4.5% E-o-E while Bank Nifty was up by 6.3% E-o-E. Nifty saw
modest rollover of 58.93% from July to August series V/s 3 month average of 71.21%. Market wide rollover was at 79.34% V/s 3 month
average of 83.30%. August series starts with healthy open interest. Major sector witnessed Long built-up while sector like Infra and Telecom
witnessed minor shedding in OI . IT stocks witnessed minor short built-up.
Nifty- Call Ladder Spread
SECTORS OI
Actionable
√
Auto: Long Built-up but modest rollover except Two Wheeler (TVSMOTOR)where price
Buy Aug 8750 CE 1 Lot,
Sell Aug 8900 CE 1 Lot
Sell Aug 9000 CE 1 Lot
correction was visible
√
√
Banks: Positive Roll in Bankbaroda, ALBK and Unionbank. Significant long and positive roll
√
in Yesbank and Ktkbank
√
√
Engineering: Long Built-up in major stock. Positive Roll with OI accumulation in Voltas
√
and Havells
√
Oil&Gas: Significant positive price action along with long built-up in OMC stocks
√
FMCG: Mix of Long and Short unwinding
Nifty is in Long - Long unwinding cycle
Option data for August series shows 9000 as highest
call concentration (immediate resistance)
Put Concentration at 8500 could act as a vital support
Considering positive momentum, Call Ladder Spread is
recommended
Target Profit : INR 9300 Stop loss : INR 2000
Hedge : Above 9100
Commodities Market Outlook
√
Gold and Silver prices extended gains for a second straight month as global liquidity remains abundant and as the Fed stays non-committal
about the timing of its next rate hike.
√
Most of the global risk assets recovered their post-Brexit losses as Central banks remain accommodative and keep liquidity taps open. The Bank
of England and the ECB could ease further in the coming months. Investors are also awaiting more stimulus from Japan
√
The Fed statement indicated that risks to the U.S. economy had subsided but gave no clear signals about the timing of the next rate hike.
While, the statement wasn't exactly dovish, we believe that the Fed likely to raise rates only gradually which will underpin precious metals.
√
The focus of the markets has now shifted back to US data as concerns over Brexit have subsided for the time being. While U.S. economic data
has been broadly better in recent weeks, it still isn't good enough to warrant aggressive action by the Fed.
√
U.S. Q2 GDP data turned out to be a source of disappointment as GDP expanded by just 1.2%. The average growth pace in the first half of
2016 was only 1%, nearly half than the 2% average since 2009. This justifies the cautious stance that the Fed has adopted in the recent times.
On demand side, SPDR holdings increased by just 8 tonnes in July after increasing by nearly 82 tonnes in June and 65 tonnes in May. Global
gold ETF holdings have surged more than 500 tonnes so far this year.
√
The medium term trend for both gold and silver remains positive and this continuing effort to ease monetary policies in the developed world
to revive growth and inflation will fuel liquidity driven rallies globally. In the light of this, precious metals remain the biggest beneficiary.
Gold
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Monthly Markets Newsletter
Large Cap Investment Ideas,
Mid Cap Investment Ideas
Must Act
August 2016
Large Cap Investment Ideas
√
In the last four years, Aurobindo Pharma's PAT has grown 10x while its market cap has
Aurobindo Pharma
CMP*:
Target:
INR 791
INR 1100
grown 12x.
√
We expect further P/E re-rating for ARBP. (a) Strong EPS outlook of 26% CAGR backed by
17% revenue growth; (b) Strong free cash flow generation expectation of INR28b over
FY15-18E & (c) Deleveraging of balance sheet, as we expect D/E to improve to 0.2x by
BUY
FY18E (vs0.7x now).
√
We have a target price of INR 1,100 based on 20x FY18E P/E.
√
Hero MotoCorp is the leader in domestic motorcycle market with ~40% share, and high
penetration in the rural areas (~45% of sales).
√
It derives ~70% of motorcycle volumes from the top-9 agriculture-dependent States,
Hero Motocorp is likely to be larger beneficiary of good monsoon and 7th Pay Commis-
sion payout .
Hero MotoCorp
CMP*:
Target:
INR 3203
INR 3618
BUY
√
We estimate HMCL's EPS to grow at 18% CAGR, based on a 10% volume CAGR.
√
We recommend BUY on HMCL for a target share price of INR 3,618 at 14.10x FY18E
EPS.
Mid Cap Investment Ideas
√
LIC Housing Finance (LICHF) is the second largest housing finance company has 10%
mortgage market share in India. LIC is promoted by government owned largest insur-
LIC Housing Fin
CMP*:
Target:
INR 520
INR 627
ance company the LIC of India.
√
It is a strong NBFC play on low ticket housing loans for individuals. It's Pan India pres-
ence and competent management makes it a formidable HFC play.
√
Low cost housing is likely to pick up in rural and semi urban areas on back of good
BUY
monsoons and benefits emanating from 7th Pay commission.
√
We recommend to Buy LIC Housing Finance for a share price target of INR 627 based
on 2.1x FY18 P/B.
√
Manpasand Beverages (MANB) is leading player in beverages segment. Its flagship prod-
uct Mango Sip, contributed 80% to revenues in FY16 (97% in FY14).
√
To diversify the portfolio, MANB launched Fruits Up in FY15, a premium fruit drink in
mango, litchi, guava, apple, orange and mixed fruit flavors.
√
It is expected to improve its market share from 5% in 2016 and 7 .5% in 2018 in INR
132bn fruit juice market.
√
MANB is expected to clock 53% revenue CAGR and 67% PAT CAGR over FY16-18E.
√
We value the stock at PE of 30x FY18 EPS at a share price of INR 850.
Data as on 29th July 2016.
Manpasand Beverages
CMP*:
Target:
INR 678
INR 850
BUY
4
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Advisor
Monthly Markets Newsletter
MOSt Multi Cap - Model Portfolio for Investors
For Whom :
Investment Duration :
Risk Profile :
Scrip
Ultratech Cement
BPCL
Hero Motocorp
Zee Ent Ltd
HDFC Bank
Can Fin Homes Ltd
PVR Ltd
Granules India Ltd
P I Industries Ltd
TVS Motor
SRF Ltd
Indo Count Ind.
Eveready Ind.
Total
MOSt Value, MOSt Velocity, MOSt Mid-Cap
Build a Portfolio
August 2016
Long Term Investors
Few months to a year
Moderate Investors
Wtg. Sectoral Allocation
10
10
10
10
10
10
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
100
We are recommending a MULTI-CAP approach instead of a MIDCAP
approach. The Multi-cap INVESTMENT portfolio will have the
following characteristics:
√
Portfolio requirement to INR 10 Lakhs
√
60% Large-caps and up to 40% in our MIDCAPs portfolio
√
15 companies to invest in at the maximum, 10 minimum
√
5 Large-caps that are suitable for SIP investments also
√
1 Semi Large-cap from our MIDCAP portfolio
√
10 stocks in the MICAPS space
MBP
3746
594
3220
501
1238
1339
1114
140
776
294
1502
880
250
Manpasand Beverages698
What’s In What’s Out
HDFC Bank
HDFC
√
Adheres to our QGLP philosophy
MOSt Velocity 10 - Model Portfolio for Positional Traders
For Whom :
Investment Duration :
Risk Profile :
Scrip
Bharti Airtel
Aurobindo Pharma
Hero Motocorp
Emami Ltd
LIC Housing Finance
IndusInd Bank
MCX
Ultratech Cement
AMARAJABAT
Cash
Total
MOSt Mid Cap- Model Portfolio for Aggressive Investors
For Whom :
Investment Duration :
Risk Profile :
Scrip
Manpasand Bevera
Can Fin Homes Ltd
PVR Ltd
Granules India Ltd
P I Industries Ltd
TVS Motor
SRF Ltd
Indo Count Ind.
Eveready Ind
Cash
Total
Medium Term Investors
Few months horizon
Moderate Investors
Wtg. Sectoral Allocation
10
10
10
10
10
10
5
5
5
25
100
Returns
3mth
6mth
12mth
Long Term Investors
Few months to a year
Aggressive Investors
MBP
698
1339
1114
140
776
294
1502
880
250
MBP
364
789
3217
1154
520
1193
1042
3746
921
Wtg. Sectoral Allocation
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
1
100
Data as on 29th July 2016.
What’s In
What’s Out
Portfolio 11.7% 19.1% 9.6%
BSE 200
12.9% 19.7% 4.2%
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MOSt PMS, MOSt Mutual - Model Portfolio
Managed Funds
August 2016
MOSt PMS
Value Strategy
√
The Strategy aims to benefit from the Long term compounding effect on investments done
in good businesses, run by great business managers for superior wealth creation.
√
Value Strategy has the investment style of buying Undervalued stock & Sell overvalued
stocks, irrespective of Index Movements.
√
Money multiplied by 22.14 times in just 13years.
√
Rs 1 Cr invested in Value PMS in March 2003 is worth Rs. 22.14crs vs. 8.54crs in Nifty 50.
√
Since its inception, Value Strategy has delivered annualized returns of 26.08% vs. Nifty 50
returns of 17.41%, an outperformance of 8.67% (CAGR).
Top Holdings in Value Strategy
Scrips
Eicher Motors Ltd.
Bosch Ltd.
Sun Pharmaceuticals Ltd.
Bharat Petroleum Corpn. Ltd
HDFC Bank Ltd.
% Holdings
11.24
9.82
9.67
8.26
8.15
Sector Allocation
Auto & Auto Ancillaries
Banking & Finance
Pharmaceuticals
Oil and Gas
FMCG
% Holdings
29.85
24.64
9.67
8.26
7.61
NTDOP Strategy
√
The strategy aims to deliver superior returns by investing in focused themes which are part
of the next Trillion Dollar GDP growth opportunity. It aims to predominantly invest in Mid
Cap stocks with a focus on Identifying Emerging Stocks/Sectors.
√
The strategy aims to capitalize on the themes of Consumerism, Banking & Financial Services
& Infrastructure in the Indian Economy.
√
Since its inception, NTDOP Strategy has delivered 19.25% annualized returns vs. 6.64% of
Nifty Midcap 100, delivering an annualized alpha of 12.61%.
Top Holdings in NTDOP Strategy
Scrips
Bajaj Finance Ltd.
HPCL
Eicher Motors Ltd.
Page Industries Ltd.
Bosch Ltd.
% Holdings
16.97
13.95
10.83
7.48
7.11
Sector Allocation
Banking & Finance
Auto & Auto Ancillaries
FMCG
Oil and Gas
Diversified
% Holdings
33.87
19.85
15.16
13.95
6.04
India Opportunity Portfolio Strategy
√
The Strategy aims to generate long term capital appreciation by creating a focused portfolio
of high growth stocks having the potential to grow more than the nominal GDP for next 5-
7 years across market capitalization and which are available at reasonable market prices.
√
Since its inception, India Opportunity Portfolio Strategy has delivered 14.65% annualized
returns vs. 9.54% of BSE 200, delivering an annualized alpha of 5.11%.
All the above figures are of a model client. Returns shown above are calculated on NAV method "Returns shown above are
post fees & expenses". Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.
Data as on 29th July 2016.
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Investment Product
Mutual Funds
August 2016
7
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