MOSt
Advisor
Monthly Markets Newsletter
October 2016
In This Issue
•
Market Outlook for the month
• Equity Market Outlook
• Derivatives & Commodities Market Outlook
• Large Cap and Mid Cap Investment Ideas
• Model Advisory Portfolios
• Recommended Funds
• Equity Fund
Key Highlights for the Month
Better 1QFY17 Earnings
Good Monsoon
Rate Cut
Dear Investor,
Global Macros:
Central Bankers across the globe main-
tained status quo on liquidity enhancing policy measures
be it ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Japan or Federal Reserve
of USA. Commentary remained largely dovish citing con-
Global Market
Index
30-Sep16
MoM (%)
YoY(%)
cern on tentative Global macros. The gravity of vulnerable
Global macros is evidenced from the fact; FOMC till now has not made a single
rate hike in CY2016 as opposed to an earlier guidance of 4 rate hikes. Month of
September was a mixed bag for equities where US consolidated whereas UK, Brazil,
South Korea and Hong Kong gained traction while Japan and India ended with over
(-2%) cuts on their major indices respectively. In commodities crude Oil, Gold and
Silver saw trading rallies. Currency as an asset class has been fairly stable in recent
past thanks to brilliant effort by Central Governments and Central Bankers globally.
Market Performance:
Geo-political tension between India and Pakistan broke the
pace of upward momentum in Indian markets. Otherwise, market was sailing smooth,
capitalizing on positive triggers like better 1QFY17 corporate earnings, normal
monsoons, passage of GST Bill and stable domestic currency (INR). Nevertheless,
sanity seems to have prevailed now and participants seem to be gearing up for Q2FY16
earnings update. Indian central bank (RBI) came up with early Diwali Gift. They cut
repo, reverse repo and MSF rate by 25bp to 6.25%, 5.75% and 6.75% respectively.
The committee retained its inflation and growth (gross value added, or GVA)
projections at 5% by March 2017 (with lower upside risks than previously estimated)
and 7.6% (with evenly ba;ISDUFlanced risks) for 2016-17. More importantly, RBI
believes that the formation of new non-performing assets (NPAs) in banks has
decelerated. All these augurs well for Indian equities.
Outlook:
Indian equity offering stand on firm footing when compared to most of
its global counterparts. Reduction in Repo rate, Good monsoons, 7th Pay Commission
pay checks in bank accounts, Passage of GST Bill and joyous festive season mood
should boost demand for two wheelers, passenger cars, white goods, electrical &
electronic consumer durables, low cost housing and home refurbishing in particular.
We maintain our stance of positive outlook on markets and advocate sticking to our
QGLP philosophy for deploying money into quality stocks.
Dharmesh Kant
Vice President- Head Of Retail Research
Sensex
Nifty
FTSE
Dow
Nasdaq
Hang Sang
27,866
8,611
6,899
18,308
5,312
23,297
-2.1
-2.0
1.7
-0.5
1.9
1.4
6.5
8.3
13.8
12.4
15.0
11.8
Economic Pulse
Key Indicators Current Month
Change (%)
IIP
WPI
10 Year Yield
USD/ INR
Crude ($)
Gold (10 gms)
-2.4%
3.74%
6.81%
66.61
49.06
31175
-
5.35
-5.02
-0.85
4.29
1.17
Thought for the month
1
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
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MOSt
Advisor
Monthly Markets Newsletter
Equity Market Outlook
Markets & Our Recommendations
October 2016
Equity Market Outlook
Technical Outlook
√
Nifty commenced the month of September on a strong note but failed to
retain its gains as it slipped below the channel pattern to end the month
with a loss of 1.99%. The geo political event added to the volatility during
the final week of month as it distorted the ongoing sequential trend.
√
The trending movement within the channel pattern seems to have stalled
as Nifty saw a violation of the pattern support at 8640. As the breach
occurred at the fag end of the month & lacks substantial evidence of a
major change in trend the odds remains high for a broad range consolida-
tion.
√
On the daily scale the RSI has breached from its channel formation & is yet
to see an oversold situation. The indicator has ample of room on the
downside & diminishes signs of an immediate reversal on the short term
scale. The indicator could be a yardstick for gauging the lower extreme &
could be reviewed near its oversold zone. On the upside 8830 now re-
mains a revival level for the uptrend & sustained move above the same
could be a sign of relief for the market. Hence we expect nifty to gyrate
within a broad range of 8830-8430 during the month.
√
Amongst sectors Energy , Auto, Media & Pharma are well placed for
outperformance while Banks , Metals, Realty & Infra could remain under
pressure.
Nifty Daily RSI
Global Rotation
Nifty weekly
Detailed report available on- http://ftp.motilaloswal.com/emailer/Marketdiary/QuantitativeMonthly/MOStQuantitativeOutlookMonthly-October2016.pdf
Sectoral Highlights
Sector
Pharma
Auto
Media
Infra
Note: #Technical view for 1 month perspective,
Our Views
Positive
Positive
Positive
Negative
Top Pick
Sun Pharma
M&M
Zee Ent.
BhartiArtl
MBP/MSP
Buy / 735
Buy / 1390
Buy / 550
Sell / 318
Data as on 30th September 2016.
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Monthly Markets Newsletter
Derivatives Market Outlook,
Commodities Market Outlook
Markets & Our Recommendations
October 2016
Derivatives Market Outlook
√
Profit booking and Geo-political concerns steered negative sentiment near end of expiry which led to mediocre rollover in both Nifty &
Banknifty. Both Index witnessed roll of 63% viz-z-viz 3 month average of 70%. Broader market rollover did stand at par at 81% indicating stock
specific activity to be visible in October series. Option data for Nifty October series depicts 9000 as highest call concentration. However put
concentration remains relatively lower suggesting put writers are cautious. Breach of 8500PE could see Index heading lower towards 8400.
√
India VIX, Sentiment indicator, is quoting near the vicinity of 18%. It has negative correlation with Index. Further correlation with Nifty has
decreased to -0.66%. Past history suggest as correlation becomes further negative, Index witnesses wild swings. Thus it's imperative to deploy
adequate hedge to protect for any adverse situation. With nervousness around owing to Geo-political condition, it would be wise to buy
Volatility. Thus Modified Reverse Iron condor strategy is suggested to take benefit from increasing volatility and to offset damage of time decay.
SECTORS OI
Nifty- Modified Reverse Iron Condor
Buy 8600 PE 1 lot,
Sell 8300 PE 1 lot
Buy 8700 CE 1 lot,
Sell 8900 CE 1 lot
√
√
√
Poor Rollover coupled with lower open interest suggest indeci-
siveness
With India VIX inching near 18% suggests markets is headed for
volatile session ahead
With nervousness owing to Geo-political condition, it would be
wise to buy volatility. Thus Modified Iron condor is suggested to
benefit from rising vol & offset damage of time decay
Commodities Market Outlook
Gold
Target Profit : INR 6000 Stop loss : INR 2500
√
Gold prices edged higher last month despite the Fed signaling a possible rate hike in December as investors continue to doubt the Fed's ability
to raise rates in the backdrop of the US Presidential elections. The Fed suggested that near-term risks for the economic outlook appear roughly
balanced and that the case for an increase has strengthened. While the language suggests that we may see a rate hike in December, Fed
members still remain divided about the timing. There were three dissenters to the decision which underlines the uphill task of the Fed.
√
Importantly, main reason why gold rallied was that the Fed projected a slower pace of rate increase for next year. The Fed also projected less
aggressive interest rates hikes in 2017 and 2018. Underlying trend for precious metals will also remain bullish as the Fed's ability to hike will
be contingent on outcome of the US Presidential elections. An outcome that favors Trump could induce significant market volatility across asset
classes and a risk-off environment will benefit gold. Given the uncertainty over election outcome and other global factors, investors are still
pricing in just about 50% chances of a rate hike in December despite the Fed signals.
√
On the demand front, global gold ETF holdings have surged more than 510 tonnes so far this year but holdings have barely increased in the
last two months resulting in price stagnation. Physical demand may however pick up as the festive season starts in India.
√
We mentioned in our last report that it will be difficult for gold to make big incremental gains given that the long side is a very crowded trade
and is vulnerable to liquidation. We still believe that the gold bull trend is intact but we could see intermittent price corrections and extended
period of consolidation before we get any meaningful triggers for a fresh rally.
3
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Large Cap Investment Ideas,
Mid Cap Investment Ideas
Must Act
October 2016
Large Cap Investment Ideas
√
In the last four years, Aurobindo Pharma's PAT has grown 12x while its market cap has
Aurobindo Pharma
CMP*:
Target:
INR 855
INR 1050
grown 13x.
√
We expect further P/E re-rating for ARBP. (a) Strong EPS outlook of 25% CAGR backed by
14% revenue growth; (b) Strong free cash flow generation expectation of INR17b over
FY16-18E & (c) Deleveraging of balance sheet, as we expect D/E to improve to 0.3x by
BUY
FY18E (vs0.6x now).
√
We have a target price of INR 1,050 based on 20x FY18E P/E.
Hero MotoCorp
CMP*:
Target:
INR 3413
INR 3666
√
Hero MotoCorp is the leader in domestic motorcycle market with ~40% share, and high
penetration in the rural areas (~45% of sales).
√
Hero's recent monthly sales numbers have been very healthy and above our expectations
which will further get a fillip from good monsoon and 7th Pay Commission payout.
BUY
√
We estimate HMCL's EPS to grow at 17% CAGR, based on a 10% volume CAGR. We
recommend BUY on HMCL for a target share price of INR 3,666 at 18x FY18E EPS.
Mid Cap Investment Ideas
√
LIC Housing Finance (LICHF) is the second largest housing finance company has 10%
mortgage market share in India. LIC is promoted by government owned largest insur-
LIC Housing Fin
CMP*:
Target:
INR 579
INR 761
ance company the LIC of India.
√
It is a strong NBFC play on low ticket housing loans for individuals. It's Pan India pres-
ence and competent management makes it a formidable HFC play.
√
Low cost housing is likely to pick up in rural and semi urban areas on back of good
BUY
monsoons and benefits emanating from 7th Pay commission.
√
We recommend to Buy LIC Housing Finance for a share price target of INR 761 based
on 3.0x FY18 P/B.
√
Manpasand Beverages (MANB) is leading player in beverages segment. Its flagship prod-
uct Mango Sip, contributed 80% to revenues in FY16 (97% in FY14).
√
To diversify the portfolio, MANB launched Fruits Up in FY15, a premium fruit drink in
mango, litchi, guava, apple, orange and mixed fruit flavors.
√
It is expected to improve its market share from 5% in 2016 and 7 .5% in 2018 in INR
132bn fruit juice market.
√
MANB is expected to clock 53% revenue CAGR and 67% PAT CAGR over FY16-18E.
√
We value the stock at PE of 30x FY18 EPS at a share price of INR 850.
Data as on 30th September 2016.
Manpasand Beverages
CMP*:
Target:
INR 751
INR 850
BUY
4
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
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MOSt Multi Cap - Model Portfolio for Investors
For Whom :
Investment Duration :
Risk Profile :
Scrip
Ultratech Cement
LIC Housing Fin
Hero Motocorp
Zee Ent
HDFC Bank
CG Consumer Elec
Can Fin Homes Ltd
PVR Ltd
Granules India Ltd
P I Industries Ltd
TVS Motor
SRF Ltd
Indo Count Ind.
Castrol India Ltd
Total
MOSt Value, MOSt Velocity, MOSt Mid-Cap
Build a Portfolio
October 2016
Long Term Investors
Few months to a year
Moderate Investors
Wtg. Sectoral Allocation
10
10
10
10
10
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
100
We are recommending a MULTI-CAP approach instead of a MIDCAP
approach. The Multi-cap INVESTMENT portfolio will have the
following characteristics:
√
Portfolio requirement to INR 10 Lakhs
√
60% Large-caps and up to 40% in our MIDCAPs portfolio
√
15 companies to invest in at the maximum, 10 minimum
√
5 Large-caps that are suitable for SIP investments also
√
1 Semi Large-cap from our MIDCAP portfolio
√
10 stocks in the MICAPS space
MBP
3852
579
3414
547
1273
154
1625
1185
116
832
366
1778
726
475
Manpasand Beverage 751
What’s In What’s Out
Castrol India Ltd Eveready Ind
√
Adheres to our QGLP philosophy
MOSt Velocity 10 - Model Portfolio for Positional Traders
For Whom :
Investment Duration :
Risk Profile :
Scrip
EMAMILTD
BHARTIARTL
AUROPHARMA
LICHSGFIN
INDUSINDBK
BANKBARODA
INFY
Cash
Total
MOSt Mid Cap- Model Portfolio for Aggressive Investors
For Whom :
Investment Duration :
Risk Profile :
Scrip
CG Consumer Elec
Can Fin Homes Ltd
PVR Ltd
Granules India Ltd
P I Industries Ltd
TVS Motor
SRF Ltd
Indo Count Ind.
Castrol India Ltd
Total
Medium Term Investors
Few months horizon
Moderate Investors
Wtg. Sectoral Allocation
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
30
100
Returns
3mth
6mth
12mth
Long Term Investors
Few months to a year
Aggressive Investors
MBP
154
1625
1185
116
832
366
1778
726
475
MBP
1170
314
855
579
1196
167
1036
Wtg. Sectoral Allocation
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
100
Data as on 30th September 2016.
Manpasand Beverage 751
What’s In
What’s Out
Portfolio 5.7%
BSE 200
4.7%
18.0% 20.2%
13.8% 10.3%
Castrol India Ltd Eveready Ind
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 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
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Monthly Markets Newsletter
MOSt PMS, MOSt Mutual - Model Portfolio
Managed Funds
October 2016
MOSt PMS
Value Strategy
√
Inception date:- 25th March 2003.
√
The Strategy aims to benefit from the Long term compounding effect on investments done
in good businesses, run by great business managers for superior wealth creation.
√
Value Strategy has the investment style of buying Undervalued stock & Sell overvalued
stocks, irrespective of Index Movements.
√
INR 1 Cr invested in Value PMS in March 2003 is worth Rs. 22.19 Crs vs. 8.51Crs in Nifty
50.
√
Since its inception, Value Strategy has delivered annualized returns of 25.75% vs. Nifty 50
returns of 17.15%, an outperformance of 8.6% (CAGR).
Top Holdings in Value Strategy
Scrips
Bosch
Bharat Petroleum Corpn
Sun Pharmaceuticals
HDFC Bank
Eicher Motors
% Holdings
8.96
8.53
8.44
8.32
7.98
Sector Allocation
Banking & Finance
Auto & Auto Ancillaries
Oil and Gas
Pharmaceuticals
FMCG
% Holdings
26.86
26.80
8.53
8.44
7.92
NTDOP Strategy
√
Inception date:- 5th Dec 2007.
√
The strategy aims to deliver superior returns by investing in focused themes which are part
of the next Trillion Dollar GDP growth opportunity. It aims to predominantly invest in Mid
Cap stocks with a focus on Identifying Emerging Stocks/Sectors.
√
The strategy aims to capitalize on the themes of Consumerism, Banking & Financial Services
& Infrastructure in the Indian Economy.
√
In last three year, strategy has delivered a return of 45.05% CAGR vs. NIFTY Freefloat
Midcap 100 is 30.11% CAGR i.e., NTDOP has delivered an alpha of 14.94%.
Top Holdings in NTDOP Strategy
Scrips
Bajaj Finance
HPCL
Page Industries
Eicher Motors
Bosch
% Holdings
16.08
13.70
7.46
6.87
6.48
Sector Allocation
Banking & Finance
Oil and Gas
Auto & Auto Ancillaries
FMCG
Diversified
% Holdings
32.70
15.76
15.57
15.04
6.28
India Opportunity Portfolio Strategy
√
Inception date:- 15th Feb 2010.
√
The Strategy aims to benefit from the long term compounding effect on investments done
in good businesses, run by great business managers for superior wealth creation.
√
In last 1 year, IOP Strategy has delivered a returns of 31.68% vs. BSE 200 returns of 10.96%,
i.e. delivered an alpha of 20.72%
√
Focus Theme for Next Five year: REVIVAL IN CAPEX CYCLE | MAKE IN INDIA | THIRD
TRILLION DOLLAR OPPORTUNITIES
√
Investment Approach: Buy & Hold
√
Investments with Long term perspective
√
Maximize post tax return due to Low Churn
All the above figures are of a model client. Returns shown above are calculated on NAV method "Returns shown above are
post fees & expenses". Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.
Top Holdings in IOP Strategy
Scrips
Canfin Home
Mahanagar Gas
Development Credit Bank
Aegis Logistics
TTK Prestige
% Holdings
9.40
9.25
8.34
7.56
7.15
Sector Allocation
Banking & Finance
Consumer Durable
Oil and Gas
Pharmaceuticals
Cement & Infrastructure
% Holdings
22.78
17.90
16.82
12.49
10.31
Data as on 30th September 2016.
6
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
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Monthly Markets Newsletter
Investment Product
Equity Fund
October 2016
Is Investment in Equity Risky
BSE Sensex rolling return over time
* Rolling returns are calculated from 1 April, 2002 to 15 July, 2016.
You do not need to be wealthy to be an investor…But you can be wealthy if you are an investor!!
It's a common belief that equities are the high-risk portion of investor's portfolios. But the fact is, with a very long time horizon, stocks actually
may be the least-risky asset of all. Equity, over the long term, actually gives the benefit of increased returns without upping the risk taken.
Equities are by their very nature are volatile and there is an element of risk involved in them. The Key to equity investment is PATIENCE.
The longer one holds his investment more is the chance of high return and lowering of risk.
For Instance, if we consider Sensex data from April 1, 2002 to 15 July, 2016, it can be seen that the probability to get positive Sensex return
for tenor of one year is 78% and negative return is 22% but as we increase the term to 3 years, Sensex return is positive 95% times and
negative 5% and with tenure of 10 years Sensex has given almost 100% positive returns. This implies that longer one invest in equity probability
of negative return decreases.
If you are a low risk investor who wants appreciation on funds you need to give your investment time. Investing in equity is just like planting
a tree, one need to invest time and resources in it to get fruitful return. If you want bigger and better returns and you are patient and willing
to give your investment some time, equities are your best option.
Scheme
AUM
(in cr)
Large Cap Funds
ICICI Pru Focused Bluechip Eq.
SBI Bluechip Fund
Birla SL Top 100 Fund(G)
Multi Cap Funds
Franklin India Prima Plus Fund
ICICI Pru Value Discovery Fund
MOSt Focused Midcap 35 Fund
Small & Mid Cap funds
Sundaram Select Midcap
Franklin India Smaller Cos Fund
DSPBR Micro- Cap Fund
11868.11
8333.60
2407.38
9284.62
14364.46
4418.36
4164.30
3734.17
3649.98
Returns (%)
Absolute 1 Yr
12.73
15.75
12.37
10.98
10.69
15.04
20.90
22.92
23.01
3 Yrs
20.21
26.25
23.67
27.17
33.27
--
38.97
43.64
52.37
5 Yrs
16.08
20.24
18.06
18.56
23.76
--
23.67
29.61
28.65
Since Inception
14.88
11.52
15.28
19.29
23.10
33.79
29.85
15.59
19.22
7
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
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Regd Office: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; CIN no.: U65990MH1994PLC079418; Tel No.: 022 3980 4263; www.motilaloswal.com
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company of MOSL. PMS (Regn No. INP000004409) is offered through Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Ltd. (MOWML) which is a group company of MOSL. Motilal Oswal Commodities Broker Pvt Ltd. (MOCBPL) member of MCX,
NCDEX and NCDEX Spot. MCX Member ID 29500, NCDEX-NCEDX-CO-04-00114, NCDEX Spot Exchange Limited 10014. FMC Unique membership code: MCX: MCX/TCM/CORP/0725, NCDEX: NCDEX/TCM/CORP/0033, Commodity
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Disclosure of Interest Statement
1.Analyst ownership of the stocks mentioned above
2.Served as an officer, director or employee
No
No
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