MOSt
Advisor
Monthly Markets Newsletter
September 2017
In This Issue
Market Outlook for the month
Investment Ideas
• Equity Market Outlook
• Derivatives & Commodities Market Outlook
• Model Advisory Portfolios
• Recommended Funds
• India Business Excellence Fund- III
Key Highlights
Market took breather near to 10K
Bulls worried over Geo political concerns amid spike in volatility
Dear Investor,
Market in August 2017:
The Asian markets were mixed for the
month of August as they seemed to be directionless. The rise in
global risks and uncertainties weighed on the markets. Indian
indices failed to continue their up move and took a pause near
to its psychological 10000 mark. The benchmark Nifty index
registered a new high of 10138 in the month of August 2017 but bears were keeping
a tough fight for most part of the month. Nifty Metals and Energy indices hit their
multiyear highs by their continuous outperformance.
Nifty had biggest weekly fall of ~3.50% in this month since November 2016 (post
demonetisation), but bulls managed to hold its losing ground by half of the recovery
in last three weeks. Index managed to hold its gains for last three consecutive weeks
ignoring weak Q1'18 GDP data which came at 5.7%, slowest in last 3 years due
to disruption caused ahead of GST rollout in July 2017.
FIIs sold equities worth INR16000 Cr. for the August month which was totally
absorbed by DIIs who bought worth INR16000 Cr.
Geopolitical tension got released between India and China while North Korea test
Pre. Mth
Global Market
Index
31-Aug 17
MoM (%)
YoY(%)
Sensex
Nifty
FTSE 100
Dow
Nasdaq
Hang Sang
31,730
9,918
7,431
21,948
6,429
27,970
-2.4
-1.6
0.8
0.3
1.3
2.4
-2.8
-1.8
0.9
0.3
1.6
2.8
Economic Pulse
Key Indicators Current Mth
IIP
CPI
10 Year Yield
USD/ INR
Crude ($)
Gold (10 gms)
-0.1%
2.36%
6.52%
63.9
52.38
29456
1.7%
1.54%
6.47%
64.18
52.65
28513
fired missile in Pacific Ocean which reignited global tension. RBI cut repo rate by
25 basis points to 6% in its last monetary policy which was in line with the
expectation. Lending rate cuts are crucial to economic growth recovery and banks
should lower rates by 25 bps before the start of the busy season in October to
accelerate reforms momentum.
INR is in a trading range for last several weeks in between 63.70 to 64.40. Overall
INR has been stable and slowly appreciating which has a positive implication.
Outlook September 2017:
For the month of September, easing of geopolitical issues
could give relief to Global and Indian indices. Nifty index got stuck in a broader range
of 9750 to 9980 zones from last four weeks and requires a decisive range breakout
to start the next leg of rally. Bulls and bears both are fighting hard near to 9880
zones; however decline is being bought in the market, but absence of follow up
buying is keeping the upside restricted. A decisive hold above 9980-10020 zones
could start the fresh move towards its life time high of 10138 then 10250 while
below 9775 only trend would turn to negative on medium term perspective.
Chandan Taparia
Thought for the month
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Monthly Markets Newsletter
Large Cap Investment Ideas,
Mid Cap Investment Ideas
Must Act
September 2017
Investment Ideas
Trident is one of India's leading diversified group of businesses into manufacturing of
Trident
CMP*:
Target:
INR 99
INR 114
integrated home textile (bed and bath linen) and wheat straw-based paper.
In FY17, the Home Textile business contributed 82% of its overall revenue, while Paper
accounted for 18%.
The rising share of copier paper (60% in FY17) is expected to lead to Paper business
BUY
margin expansion of 340bp to 38% in FY20. We estimate a CAGR of 9% in sales and
24% in PAT over FY17-20, with improving RoCE and RoE (from 7.5% and 13% in FY17
to 13% and 17.1% in FY20, respectively) and value it at price target of INR114.
Piramal Enterprise
CMP*:
Target:
INR 2,714
INR 3,044
Piramal Enterprises (PIEL) has carved a niche for itself in wholesale lending, and is now
one of the dominant players in most of the segments in which it operates.
We expect a 40% loan CAGR in the NBFC business. The Pharma business has demon-
strated strong growth and improvement in profitability in recent years.
BUY
PIEL has the distinction of being one of the few companies in India to generate 25%+
book value CAGR over past 25+ years.
We use SOTP to arrive at FY19 based target price of INR3,044 and FY20 based target
price of INR3,813
CESC is the oldest integrated power utilities in India with presence in mining, genera-
tion, and distribution of power. It has presence in retail business "Spencer" which has
CESC
CMP*:
Target:
INR 1,015
INR 1,360
~1.17msf area under operations.
The demerger into four separate businesses would drive value by unlocking the poten-
tial of the distribution and retail businesses.
Distribution business valuation will get re-rated on reduced volatility in earnings, and
BUY
thus, its cost of equity and Spencer will command better valuation after expected turn-
around in FY18.
The appointed date for demerger is 1 October, and listing is likely in 4QFY18. The SOTP
value is INR1,360/sh
Founded in 2012 via management buyout of an existing NBFC, Capital First (CAFL) is a
non-deposit-taking NBFC focusing largely on retail lending.
CAFL is a niche play in the retail NBFC space with a diversified loan portfolio and high
growth potential.
We expect significant margin improvement and stable asset quality to drive RoA/RoE
improvement from 1.6%/12% in FY17 to 2%/17% in FY20. We recommend Buy with a TP
of INR925 (3.0x FY19E BVPS).
Capital First
CMP*:
Target:
INR 723
INR 925
BUY
Data as on 31st August 2017.
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Equity Market Outlook
Markets & Our Recommendations
September 2017
Equity Market Outlook
Technical Outlook
Nifty index continued its formation of higher highs - higher lows on the Monthly
scale and hit the new life time high of 10137.85 in the beginning of the month.
However, it failed to hold its gain and later consolidated in a range of 200 points
for second half of the month. Index closed the month at 9918 with the loss of
1.58% and lost around 160 points over the close of the previous month. The
developments during the month were characterized by global political uncer-
tainty and it was reflected in the way the market behaved. The initial start to the
month was on a bearish note as the index tumbled by around 400 points but by
the end of the month the market recovered almost 50% of its decline. The candle
for the month was a small bodied candle but not really bearish by its price
behavior. At the close of the month the market remains delicately poised as bulls
managed to stage a comeback.
It is likely that with strong global economic cues and tapering off of geo-political
uncertainty the course of the market will be dictated by return of the bulls in the
trading arena; at least in the near term future. Several sectors prospered during
the month. The Pharma sector has shown some signs of a resurrection. Some
stocks in the Auto sector hit the fifth gear and NBFCs were in great demand.
Software remained subdued whereas Metal stocks were the toast of the month.
On the monthly timeframe Nifty remains in a strong uptrend and it is likely that
price action in the month of August was just a pause in the positive momentum.
We can expect the index to trade higher during the course of the month if follow
up action continues in line with its recent price setup.
Strategy-
Strategy
Trend is likely to remain positive in Nifty as price action has closed
above the resistance at 9950. Bank Nifty needs to close above 24500 levels to
continue its positive momentum. Overall trend is up as decline is being bought
and both the indices are forming an ascending triangle on charts which has
bullish implication by its nature.
Nifty Daily
Nifty Weekly
USDINR
Sectoral Highlights
Sector
Banks
NBFC
Consumer
Our Views
Positive
Positive
Positive
Top Pick
Yes Bank
LIC Housing Finance
Pidilite Industries
MBP / MSP
Buy / 1776
Buy / 681
Buy / 843
SL / TGT
1730 / 1850
660 / 720
820 / 890
Note: #Technical view for 1 month perspective
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Derivatives Market Outlook,
Commodities Market Outlook
Markets & Our Recommendations
September 2017
Derivatives Market Outlook
SECTOR OI
NIFTY - HEDGE - BEAR PUT SPREAD
BUY NIFTY 10000 PUT @ 109;
SELL NIFTY 9800 PUT @ 51
Nifty witnessed rollover of 57.96% v/s 3 Months Average of 71.80%. Index closed
negative with the loss of 1.02% on expiry to expiry basis. Bank Nifty witnessed
in line rollover of 68.26% v/s 3 Month Average of 68.50%.
Auto: Long built-up in Eichermotor, Tvsmotor and Maruti while shorts in Tatamotors
Cement: Long in Ambujacem and ACC while long liquidation in India Cement
Banks : Short covering in RBL Bank and Indusind Bank while Shorts in PSU Banks
Metal: Long built in most of the metal stocks
Pharma: Short covering in Divislab while shorts are intact in other pharma stocks
NBFC: Longs in DHFL and Bajaj Finance. Short covering in L&TFH, M&MFin & Bharatfin.
OIL & Gas: Long addition in BPCL while short covering in Petronet, IGL and BPCL
IT: Long addition in Techm and Wipro while shorts in Infy and Mindtree
FMCG : Long built up in Asianpaint, Pidilitind & Britania while shorts in ITC
MAX RISK
MAX REWARD
: 58 POINTS (INR 4350/-)
: 142 POINTS (INR10650/-)
Index has rallied by more than 22% on YOY basis and volatility
seen at higher zones
Maximum Call writing is seen at 10000 and 10100 strikes while life
time high of 10080-10138 could act as a hurdle
Major trend is intact to positive but a hedged strategy can be
taken for protection
Thus a hedge strategy Bear Put Spread is recommended
Commodities Market Outlook
Gold
Precious metals extended their rebound for a second consecutive month in August with gold finally breaking out of its broad consolidation.
Gold managed to close above $1300 as the dollar index declined for a sixth consecutive month. Silver surpassed $17 with help coming from
the strength in base metals. Geopolitical tensions raised their head again and political dysfunction in the US kept safe haven demand high
throughout the month. Rate hike odds by the Fed remain below 50% while Central bankers globally still remain dovish.
Keeping geopolitical factors aside, dollar slumped more than 9% from its highs this year which kept gold prices supported despite intermittent
selloffs. US economic data remains mixed while lack of major reforms by Donald Trump keeping the dollar depressed. Jackson Hole symposium
was expected to provide some triggers to the market but all it ended up doing was reinforcing the established trends of the recent months.
On the whole, we remain constructive on gold and our target of $1350 is likely to be breached and the rally could extend towards $1380-1400
in the coming months. In the near term, the drama over US debt ceiling will provide a trigger. Silver could benefit from the rally in industrial
metals as well but may underperform when purely risk aversion will drive markets. We believe that subdued inflation will prevent aggressive
rate hikes and balance sheet nor-malization by Central Banks has the potential to stir up market vol-atility. The issue of North Korea and Donald
Trump's political chal-lenges will also keep the bias for gold bullish through this year.
4
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MOSt Multi Cap
For Whom :
Investment Duration :
Risk Profile :
Scrip
Hero Motocorp
Zee Entert.
HDFC Bank
Piramal Enterprises
Yes Bank Ltd
CG Consumer Elec.
Can Fin Homes Ltd
Sterling Tools Ltd
P I Industries Ltd
SRF Ltd
Shriram City Union
Capital First
DHFL
Cash
Total
MOSt Multi Cap , MOSt Velocity
Build a Portfolio
September 2017
Long Term Investors
Few months to a year
Moderate Investors
Wtg. Sectoral Allocation
10
10
10
10
10
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
0
100
Returns
3mth
6mth
12mth
We are recommending a MULTI-CAP approach instead of a
MIDCAP approach. The Multi-cap INVESTMENT will have the
following characteristics:
Corpus requirement at INR 10 Lakhs
50% in Large-cap and 50% in mid-cap
15 companies to invest at maximum, 10 minimum
Large-cap stocks are suitable for SIP investments as well
Adheres to our QGLP philosophy
CMP
3995
520
1776
2714
1753
219
2861
229
722
1533
2059
723
505
MOSt Multicap 0.0%
Sensex
BSE 200
1.9%
4.1%
10.6% 9.3%
10.4% 11.5%
12.3% 15.0%
Ramco Cements Ltd 691
Granules India Limited128
Absolute returns as on 31st August 2017
MOSt Velocity
For Whom :
Investment Duration :
Risk Profile :
Scrip
Tata Motors Ltd
RBL Bank Ltd
Bharat Financial
DHFL
Federal Bank Ltd
UltraTech Cement
Cash
Total
Investment Norms: INR 10 lakhs (Model Corpus)
Medium Term Investors
Few months horizon
Moderate Investors
Wtg. Sectoral Allocation
10
10
10
5
10
10
10
35
100
Returns
Portfolio
BSE 200
3mth
0.7%
3.4%
6mth
0.8%
12mth
6.0%
Maximum stocks open : 10
Target Investment Horizon: 1 Year
Cash holding based on market direction call. Cash to be deployed
in case of sharp market falls
Occasional Hedging by buying options
Investment Rationale on every idea is provided
10% in a particular Stock and 30% (max) in a Sector
CMP
377
545
879
505
108
4005
LIC Housing Finance 674
12.5% 15.0%
Absolute returns as on 31st August 2017
5
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MOSt PMS - Model Portfolio
Managed Funds
September 2017
MOSt PMS
Value Strategy
Inception date: - 24th March 2003.
The Strategy aims to benefit from the Long term compounding effect on investments done
in good businesses, run by great business managers for superior wealth creation.
Value Strategy has the investment style of buying Undervalued stock & Sell overvalued
stocks, irrespective of Index Movements.
INR 1 Cr invested in Value PMS in March 2003 is worth INR24.31 Crs vs. 8.81 Crs in Nifty
50 as on 30th June 2017, an outperformance of 33.12 Crs.
Since its inception, Value Strategy has delivered annualized returns of 25.06% vs. Nifty 50
returns of 17.12%, an outperformance of 7.94% (CAGR).
Top Holdings in Value Strategy
Scrips
HDFC Bank Ltd.
BPCL
Eicher Motors Ltd.
Bosch Ltd.
Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd
% Holdings
9.81
9.19
8.99
7.68
7.44
Sector Allocation
Banking & Finance
Auto & Auto Ancillaries
Oil and Gas
FMCG
Airlines
% Holdings
35.40
27.20
9.19
7.09
5.81
NTDOP Strategy
Inception date: - 11th Dec 2007.
The strategy aims to deliver superior returns by investing in focused themes which are part
of the next Trillion Dollar GDP growth opportunity. It aims to predominantly invest in Mid
Cap stocks with a focus on Identifying Emerging Stocks/Sectors.
In last 3 years, strategy has delivered a return of 30.33% CAGR vs. NIFTY Free float Midcap
100 is 18.04% CAGR i.e., NTDOP has delivered an alpha of 12.29%.
Top Holdings in NTDOP Strategy
Scrips
Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd
Bajaj Finance Ltd
Voltas Ltd.
Page Industries Ltd.
Eicher Motors Ltd.
% Holdings
10.71
9.13
8.61
7.37
7.36
Sector Allocation
Banking & Finance
Auto & Auto Ancillaries
FMCG
Diversified
Oil and Gas
% Holdings
33.76
15.99
15.00
13.04
7.32
India Opportunity Portfolio Strategy
Inception date: - 15th Feb 2010.
The Strategy aims to benefit from the long term compounding effect on investments done
in good businesses, run by great business managers for superior wealth creation.
In last 1 year, IOP Strategy has delivered a returns of 33.68% vs Nifty Free Float Midcap 100
returns of 18.91%, i.e. delivered an alpha of 14.77%
Focus Theme for Next Five year: REVIVAL IN CAPEX CYCLE | MAKE IN INDIA | THIRD
TRILLION DOLLAR OPPORTUNITIES
Investment Approach: Buy & Hold
Investments with Long term perspective
Maximize post tax return due to Low Churn
All the above figures are of a model client. Returns shown above are calculated on NAV method "Returns shown above are
post fees & expenses". Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.
Top Holdings in IOP Strategy
Scrips
% Holdings
9.76
9.21
6.88
6.77
6.47
29.45
12.34
11.98
10.54
9.98
Data as on 31st August 2017.
Development Credit Bank Ltd
Birla Corporation Ltd.
Quess Corp Ltd.
Canfin Home
Aegis Logistics Ltd.
Sector Allocation
Banking & Finance
Cement & Infrastructure
Oil and Gas
Consumer Durable
Pharmaceuticals
% Holdings
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Brief introduction of India Business Excellence Fund- III
Investment Product
India Business Excellence Fund- III
September 2017
Introduction of MOPE Fund- India Business Excellence Fund- III
We are happy to introduce you our new offering in the Private Equity category; "INDIA BUSINESS EXCELLENCE FUND (series III)".
Particulars 
Targeted Fund Size
Investment Manager
Tenure
Fund Focus
Average Deal Size
Minimum Commitment
Commitment Period
Sponsor & Team Commitment
Advisory Fee
Hurdle Rate
Target Returns
Performance Fees
Legal Structure
INR 2,000 Cr.
Description 
MOPE Investment Advisors Private Limited
10 years from the date of the final closing subject to two additional 1 year extensions
Sector agnostic fund, providing growth capital to mid-sized Indian companies
INR 150-200 Cr.
Domestic unit holders INR 5 Cr
5 years from final closing
Sponsor: 150 Cr. (same terms as domestic investors
Team Commitment: INR 25 Cr.
·         2% of commitment amount p.a. during commitment period
·         2% of invested amount p.a. thereafter
10% IRR for Domestic Investors
Investment IRR 25% to 30%
20% with catch-up
AIF Category II
Why Private Equity Fund?
As per Mckinsey analysis Private Equity Fund backed companies have demonstrated better performance.
In last 15 years Indian equity market has matured, typically any company wants to raise 150 to 200 Cr., it has become difficult to raise it
through IPO. Herein, Private Equity fills the fund raising requirement for mid to small size entrepreneurs. In last 15 to 20 years, PE Funds, has
raised 50 Billion USD to 60 Billion USD (Approximately).
In Private Equity Fund, primarily investment is done in unlisted space, with investment horizon for long term. And, these companies get 25%
to 50 % at discount As compare to same companies in listed space. This gives opportunity to get early identification of unique opportunities.
Generally investors' investment get locked for long period, which makes it forced to see the investment for long period of time. Wherein,
investor gets the opportunity to create wealth. Longer duration leads to significant incremental value.
Investor would have larger universe with better governance & operating controls.
Genesis of Motilal Oswal Group as investment house:-
Indian entrepreneurs relate to Motilal Oswal's first generation entrepreneurial success story. As per latest report of Forbes India, MOFSL is in the
list of "INDIA'S SUPER 50 COMPANIES".
Equity focused investment mind-set, investment philosophy & clarity of approach.
40 years of Equity investment expertise reflected in a QGLP investment philosophy. Identified multiple winners across segments across the
investment tenure.
MOPE founded in Feb 06 and have successfully raised and managing TWO SERIES of PRIVATE EQUITY FUND (IBEF I & II) fund raising worth
INR1,550 Cr.
7
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Analyst ownership of 1% or more securities
No
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The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S. registered broker-dealer, MOSIPL, and therefore,
may not be subject to NASD rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communication with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
For Singapore
Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited is acting as an exempt financial advisor under section 23(1)(f) of the Financial Advisers Act(FAA) read with regulation 17(1)(d) of the Financial Advisors Regulations and is a subsidiary
of Motilal Oswal Securities Limited in India. This research is distributed in Singapore by Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited and it is only directed in Singapore to accredited investors, as defined in the Financial
Advisers Regulations and the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289), as amended from time to time. In respect of any matter arising from or in connection with the research you could contact the following representatives of
Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited:
Disclaimer:
The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person
or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and may not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer
to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate
to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial
positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems necessary
to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to determine the merits and risks
of such an investment. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options, another derivative products as well as non-investment grade
securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information and opinions contained in this
document. The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information
is subject to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval. MOSL, its associates, their
directors and the employees may from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform or seek to perform
investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities functions as a separate, distinct and independent of each other. The recipient
should take this into account before interpreting the document. This report has been prepared on the basis of information that is already available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of MOSL. The views
expressed are those of the analyst, and the Company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed therein. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or
passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident
of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject MOSL to any registration or licensing requirement
within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves
of and to observe such restriction. Neither the Firm, not its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or
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costs, damages, expenses that may be suffered by the person accessing this information due to any errors and delays.
Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022-3980 4263; www.motilaloswal.com. Correspondence Address: Palm Spring Centre,
2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 3080 1000. Compliance Officer: Neeraj Agarwal, Email Id: na@motilaloswal.com, Contact No.:022-30801085.
Registration details of group entities.: MOSL: NSE (Cash): INB231041238; NSE (F&O): INF231041238; NSE (CD): INE231041238; BSE (Cash): INB011041257; BSE(F&O): INF011041257; BSE(CD); MSE(Cash): INB261041231; MSE(F&O):
INF261041231; MSE(CD): INE261041231; CDSL: IN-DP-16-2015; NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-152-2000; Research Analyst: INH000000412. AMFI: ARN 17397. Investment Adviser: INA000007100. Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd.
(MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670) offers PMS and Mutual Funds products. Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409) offers wealth management solutions. *Motilal
Oswal Securities Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs, Insurance and IPO products. * Motilal Oswal Commodities Broker Pvt. Ltd. offers Commodities Products. * Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment
Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. offers Real Estate products. * Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd. offers Private Equity products