MOSt
Advisor
Monthly Markets Newsletter
September 2017
In This Issue
•
Market Outlook for the month
•
Investment Ideas
• Equity Market Outlook
• Derivatives & Commodities Market Outlook
• Model Advisory Portfolios
• Recommended Funds
• India Business Excellence Fund- III
Key Highlights
Market took breather near to 10K
Bulls worried over Geo political concerns amid spike in volatility
Dear Investor,
Market in August 2017:
The Asian markets were mixed for the
month of August as they seemed to be directionless. The rise in
global risks and uncertainties weighed on the markets. Indian
indices failed to continue their up move and took a pause near
to its psychological 10000 mark. The benchmark Nifty index
registered a new high of 10138 in the month of August 2017 but bears were keeping
a tough fight for most part of the month. Nifty Metals and Energy indices hit their
multiyear highs by their continuous outperformance.
Nifty had biggest weekly fall of ~3.50% in this month since November 2016 (post
demonetisation), but bulls managed to hold its losing ground by half of the recovery
in last three weeks. Index managed to hold its gains for last three consecutive weeks
ignoring weak Q1'18 GDP data which came at 5.7%, slowest in last 3 years due
to disruption caused ahead of GST rollout in July 2017.
FIIs sold equities worth INR16000 Cr. for the August month which was totally
absorbed by DIIs who bought worth INR16000 Cr.
Geopolitical tension got released between India and China while North Korea test
Pre. Mth
Global Market
Index
31-Aug 17
MoM (%)
YoY(%)
Sensex
Nifty
FTSE 100
Dow
Nasdaq
Hang Sang
31,730
9,918
7,431
21,948
6,429
27,970
-2.4
-1.6
0.8
0.3
1.3
2.4
-2.8
-1.8
0.9
0.3
1.6
2.8
Economic Pulse
Key Indicators Current Mth
IIP
CPI
10 Year Yield
USD/ INR
Crude ($)
Gold (10 gms)
-0.1%
2.36%
6.52%
63.9
52.38
29456
1.7%
1.54%
6.47%
64.18
52.65
28513
fired missile in Pacific Ocean which reignited global tension. RBI cut repo rate by
25 basis points to 6% in its last monetary policy which was in line with the
expectation. Lending rate cuts are crucial to economic growth recovery and banks
should lower rates by 25 bps before the start of the busy season in October to
accelerate reforms momentum.
INR is in a trading range for last several weeks in between 63.70 to 64.40. Overall
INR has been stable and slowly appreciating which has a positive implication.
Outlook September 2017:
For the month of September, easing of geopolitical issues
could give relief to Global and Indian indices. Nifty index got stuck in a broader range
of 9750 to 9980 zones from last four weeks and requires a decisive range breakout
to start the next leg of rally. Bulls and bears both are fighting hard near to 9880
zones; however decline is being bought in the market, but absence of follow up
buying is keeping the upside restricted. A decisive hold above 9980-10020 zones
could start the fresh move towards its life time high of 10138 then 10250 while
below 9775 only trend would turn to negative on medium term perspective.
Chandan Taparia
Thought for the month
1